Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Housing starts fell 10.6% in April + Housing Starts and Permits Show Construction Sagging

[mEDITate-OR:
believe that the number is accurate...
without distinguishing single homes from multi-unit apartments.
-------
First, The Charts:
the 1st two are simple charts by Daniel@Atlantic.
they show U.S. his point - we are wallowing
the 2nd two are from Sold@PaperEconomy
they also show U.S. permits & starts
but with a lot more detail & info
The last is from FinFact in Ireland
but, unlike Daniel & Sold they also separate one units from more
-----------
Next the conflict that they all ignore.
What everyone must know by now, apartments are extremely volatile.
Including them WITH singe unit starts is VERY misleading.
For example, with foreclosures still running high, there are huge numbers of vacant home, and REOs for sale.
Apartments however are seeing very low vacancy rates, and much higher rents.
Therefore, a reduction in new homes makes sense.
As would a huge increase in apartment & condo construction.
BUT, and it is a very large but, there is very little financing available for that.
---------
Finally, the industry reports:
Both the HousingWire and the newly re-titled Worldpropertychannel
use the same heading to report the same Census report info
But, the HW does not separate out "apartments", at all.
WPC does, but fails to tell U.S. how much that changed.
Given the volatility that both know exists, this is misleading reporting.
---------
Post-script:
The only news report that we have found anywhere that consistently separates and accurately reports multi-unit construction is Bloomberg.
This is what THEY tell U.S.:
Work on multifamily homes, such as townhouses and apartments, fell 24 percent to an annual rate of 129,000, the weakest so far this year.
and
Starts dropped by a 23 percent decrease in the South, the largest area.
All of the weakness in starts was due to the plunge in the South, reflecting flooding on the Mississippi River that continued into May
-------------
We should NOT have to hunt down this vital piece of information.
------------
-----------
------------
------------

------------

========
Housing starts fell 10.6% in April
Same title, different source and article:
http://www.housingwire.com/2011/05/17/housing-starts-fell-10-6-in-april
version 2
http://www.worldpropertychannel.com/us-markets/residential-real-estate-1/new-home-construction-us-census-bureau-department-of-housing-and-urban-development-hud-new-housing-starts-homes-for-sale-building-permits-4302.php
------------
Housing Starts and Permits Show Construction Sagging
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/05/housing-starts-and-permits-show-construction-sagging/239000/
-------------
New Residential Construction Report: April 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/05/new-residential-construction-report.html
--------------
US home construction fell in April
US manufacturing production dipped due to Japan's earthquake supply Disruption
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1022317.shtml
------------
Housing Starts in U.S. Unexpectedly Decline
on Southern Floods, Tornadoes
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-17/u-s-housing-starts-unexpectedly-declined-in-april-to-523-000-annual-pace.html
==========

Sunday, May 15, 2011

The Weekly summaries: The A List = Calculated Risk & The Paper Economy; The B List = BLS-TED and MarketWatch - This Week in Charts

[mEDITate-OR:
not know about The Weekly summaries...
----------
If you do not "follow the lead of" Calculated Risk you probably do not know that at the end of each week, Bill provides two Summaries - what significant happened last week, and what significant will happen this week.
This is The Classic Debate Method = Tell them what you are gonna tell them - tell them - and then tell them what they should remember about what you have told them.
--------
Sold on the Top doesn't do that - he merely provides wonderful charts, and decent explanations.
--------
MarketWatch and BLS-TED are two very good but very different week sets of charts.
MW is a weekly Summary, TED is not.
MW also provides a quick link to the main WSJ articles about each chart.
--------
Daniel and Colin are "analysts"
while their charts are good, and Daniel's are generally better...
tis there analysis of their charts that is outstanding.
-------
Each of these very valuable resources are weekly must reads.
FYI
Enjoy.
=====     The A List:
Summary for Week Ending May 13th
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/summary-for-week-ending-may-13th.html
-------------
Schedule for Week of May 15th
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/schedule-for-week-of-may-15th.html
----------
The Paper Economy
= A US real estate bubble blog
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/
=======     The B List
THE WEEK IN CHARTS May 13:
Rising Prices; Food at home; Four-week jobless claims average; Job openings rise
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/in-charts-inflation-and-inflation-expectations-2011-05-13?link=mw_story_kiosk
----------
BLS-TED:
Job openings and rate; Import and export prices increase; Productivity 1stQ;Unemployment rate at 9.0 percent; Employment changes by industry
http://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/archive.htm#may11
==========    THE Analysts:
Daniel Indiviglio 
is an associate editor at The Atlantic, where he writes about credit markets, regulation, monetary & fiscal policy, taxes, banking, trade, emerging markets and technology.
http://www.theatlantic.com/daniel-indiviglio
-------------
Street Sweep by Colin Barr
Following the money in banking, economics and Washington
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/category/street-sweep/?iid=H_F_QL
==========