RE and economic charts: 2010-07-04

Saturday, July 10, 2010

The New, Improved Household Misery Index

[mEDITate-OR:
be too miserable about not knowing why you are miserable...
==========

=========
The New "Household" Misery Index
http://seekingalpha.com/article/213837-the-new-household-misery-index?source=email
============

Canada churns out 93,000 new jobs + unemployment rate dips below 8 pct

[mEDITate-OR:
not believe that Canada really is that much better than U.S.

Their economy created 93,000 jobs, while U.S. lost 125,00 = a quarter million difference.

"In less than a year Canada has made up nearly all the jobs lost during the recession."

"the economy, has managed to create 227,000 new jobs in just past three months, and has now all but replaced the jobs that were lost during the 2008-2009 recession."

As the 2nd chart shows U.S. too,
up to 09 they were worse off than U.S.
but after 09 they are much better off than U.S.

As the 3rd chart shows U.S. we started going down in Jan 06, they didn't until Oct 07, aboot 21 months later than U.S.
While both Canada's and U.S. had the steepest drop in Oct 08, they never went as deep as U.S., and while it was in July 09 for U.S. to begin to recover, Canada began in Oct the 3rd Q of 09.
=========== Canada: month-to-month total job creation

----------- Canada vs U.S. monthly unemployment rate (per cent)

---------- Change in total employment - Canada vs U.S.

=========
Canada churns out 93,000 new jobs
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/windsor/story/2010/07/09/canada-job-statistics.html
--------------
Canada adds 93,200 jobs in June;
pressure grows for higher interest rates
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/100709/business/jobs
==========

Friday, July 9, 2010

US, China, Germany, Canada, Japan balance of Trade numbers

[mEDITate-OR:
not start at the beginning..., with U.S.
========

=========

The Mortgage Foreclosure Maze: Securitization with a Twist OR why mortgage servicers/banks will not modify, but WILL foreclose on, you.

[mEDITate-OR:

not read the REAL reason for all the foreclosures...

for securitized RE loan packages.

--------- from the article:
This series of events explains why servicers are REALLY anxious to foreclose—even if the decision appears from the outside to make no sense. It explains why servicers have paid large sums for the “servicing rights”.
The true incentive for the servicer is control over the ever-growing pool of foreclosure proceeds—similar to a life estate.
The balance of the entire trust’s loan amounts outstanding was and is shrinking. Simultaneously the servicer’s related “collection account” is burgeoning with foreclosure proceeds.
Under.... aggressive securitizations and escrow arrangements a common benefit to servicers and banks alike was the ability to retain the income from investment of the collection account balance
----------
Bluntly put, while they do not get to keep any of the foreclosure proceeds, they DO get to hold them as long as they want to, then invest them wherever they want to, AND then to KEEP for themselves ALL of the income.
A sweet deal..., if you can write it.
===========
The Mortgage Foreclosure Maze:
Securitization with a Twist

http://stopforeclosurefraud.com/2010/07/08/the-mortgage-foreclosure-maze-securitization-with-a-twist/
==========

'Liar Loans' Make a Comeback = Banks Are Quietly Reestablishing Mortgages That Don't Require Income Documentation

[mEDITate-OR:

choke, literally to death...

on this wee, skoshi bit of news...

===========

'Liar Loans' Make a Comeback

Banks Are Quietly Reestablishing Mortgages That Don't Require Income Documentation

By Stephane Fitch, Forbes.com

July 8, 2010

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/mortgage-surprise-liar-loans-make-comeback/story?id=11110951&page=1

============

NYT: Biggest Defaulters on Mortgages Are the Rich

[mEDITate-OR:

not see where it all started...

first, CoreLogic gave the data to the NYT

then, THE New York Times printed The Story

then, the blogging world went, justifiably nuts...!

You, too, simply MUST read this story!!!

=============

Biggest Defaulters on Mortgages Are the Rich

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/09/business/economy/09rich.html?src=mv

=============

Foreclosure Friday: The Top 1 Percent Stick It to the Banks

[mEDITate-OR:

============

JGBHimself

Very Good, Phillip!

You, too, found the CoreLogic data, chart & article; and found it truly fascinating.

{Is the name, Corelogic, another of those puns?}

Moving to AZ when my mother died, we found ourselves surround and badly outnumbered by all those "red state" people - you know the one's, their faces are bright "red" with anger, if not core logic.

But, to The Point - would you be surprised to learn that each day there are literally hundreds of comments submitted to the AZ Republic that decry the reprobates who refuse to live up to their contracts!!

NO body, not even one of U.S., should ever be allowed - economically, legally, ethically OR politically - to not keep our promise to pay, and pay, and pay, on our underwater RE loans. MOG, will all of "Those People" find your/the CoreLogic data, chart and story to be, absolutely "not just", too insulting to their firmly held beliefs. And, no, Phillip, that was not a question.

----------------

Foreclosure Friday:

The Top 1 Percent Stick It to the Banks

July 09, 2010

"The rich are less susceptible to the shame and fear-mongering used by the government and the mortgage banking industry to keep underwater homeowners from acting in their financial best interest." - Brent White

One in seven homeowners with loans over $1M is in default.That compares to 1 in 12 loans below the $1M mark. This is putting a huge amount of stress on the financial system as 23% of all luxury homes bought as investments are now 90 days or more overdue, compared to just 9% of the smaller homes.

Don’t think of this as a 1:1 relationship either as the cut-off of $1M means that a single $10M unpaid mortgage above the line is worth 100 $100,000 loans (the national average) that are unpaid below the line so the distortion from a cash basis is close to a level of 100:1, which just so happens to be the difference in the income level between the top 1% and the bottom 99% as well!

“The rich are different: they are more ruthless,”

http://seekingalpha.com/article/213813-foreclosure-friday-the-top-1-percent-stick-it-to-the-banks

======

Mesa AZ may focus on abandoned homes = in a city that saw nearly 1,000 foreclosures in May

[mEDITate-OR:

ask Plato whatever...

in one of his many Good Gods' name...

did he mean..., by asking...

which one of U.S. will Guard the Guardians...

=========

JGBHimself
Jul-09 @ 7:02 AM

We may be missing two very important factoids here:

first, if the home IS empty, who, precisely, is going to "protect" it. Finding someone, if you can, to "maintain" it may sound good, but if we fire all our police, which we are in the process of doing, who will be left to guard the homes. Will the city of Mesa pay one of U.S. neighbors to watch over them? For some reason we doubt that.

Second, we are sitting on ground zero for all of the non-agency - not FMae-FMac-FHAor VA; dead zone - 2002-7; subprime & ARM - liar & interest only - loans; that are going into foreclosure. What foreclosure AND bankruptcy attorneys are finding out is that there is NO "responsible" party or owner to be found. It is a "securitized" mortgage created by the investment banks and sold to a GROUP of investor. There is no ONE person or entity who owns the mortgage - zero, nyet, zed, nada.

So..., IF you were really lost watching Lost on tv, you mcCain't begin to understand how lost you're gonna be if Scott puts YOU in charge of finding any of "those people"
--------------

JGBHimself
Jul-09 @ 7:28 AM

Excuse U.S...

but did you say that little ol' Mesa had over 1,000 foreclosures in the Merry Month of May???

As SNL's Church Lady oft said to U.S.: "Now isn't that special."

Are we looking @ 12,000 foreclosure in Mesa for this year???

Wow.

Couldn't we..., absolutely "not just"..., settle for say only 9,999?

------------

Mesa AZ may focus on abandoned homes

City could consider a property registration ordinances
by Gary Nelson - Jul. 9, 2010 12:00 AM The Arizona Republic
The neighbors were there one day, gone the next, and never said a word about leaving.
What they left was a mess, one more abandoned property in a city that saw nearly 1,000 foreclosures in May alone, according to the website RealtyTrac.
http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/2010/07/09/20100709mesa-focusing-on-abandoned-homes.html

=============

Mortgage rates slide to new low = National average for a 30-year fixed loan dips to 4.57 percent

[mEDITate-OR:

not even KNOW you could get so low...

However, "the winds of change..., de are'a blowin'...

As you know, the EURO crisis, as opposed to our own home grown one...

it about over, and the EURO is on the way back up...!!!

{sorry you missed your French vacation...!!!}

And, this week the PRICE of 10yr TBills has tanked...

which means that the yields are way up, relatively speaking...

AND that means next week the mortgage rate will jump - UP !!!

So, if you can, and if you do a REFI, "lock" and load the cheapest rate you can find.

and hold on to it for as long as you live...!!!

----------

The first three chart show U.S. this weeks mortgage rates

The 4th chart shows U.S.

that under RonnieR we paid 13%

under GHWBush we paid 10% and under BillyBoy only 7%

then when we all went "under" with W'Bush we paid only 6%...

and got all of U.S. into ALL that "trouble".

But, what the 5th chart shows U.S. is that WITH those low rates

we also had the highest home affordability...!!!

Well, you do see, do you not, that under Barack Obama !!!

we have the MOST home affordability that we have seen in our lifetimes...!!!

Now, if we only could find a job - to be able to pay for it.

=======

----------

-----------

--------

==========

============

Mortgage rates slide to new low

National average for a 30-year fixed loan dips to 4.57 percent

Mortgage rates fell for the second straight week to the lowest point in five decades, but it may not be enough to jump-start the housing market.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7148582/from/toolbar

==========

Tapped-out consumers weigh on recovery = Spending alone may not end this downturn

[mEDITate-OR:

think this is only about being out of Budweiser beer...

One of more interesting articles, which is posted earlier/below showed U.S. about all of the California REFIs where the owners had taken out one REFI after another to extract their now "paper" profits - leaving BOTH underwater and with not equity left. They took the money out and spent it.

This chart shows U.S. that that was then..., THIS is now.!!

Underwater, tapped out AND now out of work - ie, BK.
Ain't life grand.
-------

==========
Spending alone may not end this downturn

In past U.S. recessions, consumers tightened their belts when the economy was contracting, and began spending again once growth returned. This time may be different.

---------

Tapped-out consumers weigh on recovery

Unless spending kicks in, economy could remain weak for years to come

In past U.S. recessions, consumers tightened their belts when the economy was contracting, and began spending again once growth returned. This time may be different
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38135439/ns/business-eye_on_the_economy/

-------

Video

Geithner's Economic Outlook

=============

Thursday, July 8, 2010

How Large is the Outstanding Value of Sovereign Bonds?

[mEDITate-OR:
not notice that all things are not equal.

First, since Canada is about 10% the size of U.S., their debt should be too - it is not, it's larger.

Second, while the debt for U.S. is 53% of GDP, Canada's is 74%. Half again larger.

So, whey is [y]our debt so much worse than Canada', explain that to U.S.
-------
Sovereign Debt by Country

--------

Sovereign Debt by Country as percent of GDP

==========
How Large is the Outstanding Value of Sovereign Bonds?
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/07/how-large-is-outstanding-value-of.html
========

Obama puts trade in economic center ring

[mEDITate-OR:
not notice that with the decline in the US dollar, exports went up
from 02 through 08
But, when the the US dollar went up, and Euro collapsed, exports dropped back.

Where are we now?
---------

======
Obama puts trade in economic center ring
http://azstarnet.com/business/local/article_fa793efb-5af5-552f-a59f-32e5c6d44d41.html
========

Do You Earn More Than Your Parents Did?

[mEDITate-OR:
not see that woe-men are taking the rest of U.S. to the cleaners...

DESCRIPTION

Catherine, who an "economical" woe-man, likes this chart, bcuz it shows her and U.S. that almost ALL woemen are earning more than they were. Now, not only are there too many more OF them - more at birth, more in college, more in law & medicine, more at work, absolutely "not just" - a lot more of them - everywhere.

And, more of them are "Blue" voters than we "Red" white and never blue voters.
{while white men are into The Blues about loosing to Obama..., our cheeks are bright red with anger...!!!}

So, not only do they live longer than "the rest of U.S.", taking all of our hard earned money, that we forgot to spend on them; but, they earn more now than they did before. And, in this the Great Recession, they are NOT loosing their jobs as the rest of U.S. are...!!! How really un-American is that!

Now, it seems to me, we DO need to adopt "The Equal Rights Amendment".
And, to re-adopt the Inheritance Tax - to take back our estates and to give all of it to America, first...!!!
Fat chance of getting "Them!!" to vote for any of that now.
--------
If you did not understand my sense of humour...
you probably didn't appreciate it either.
Or, if you are absolutely "not just" another white man, you probably did both.

===========
July 7, 2010, 10:38 AM
Do You Earn More Than Your Parents Did?
By CATHERINE RAMPELL
Here is yet another wrinkle in the eternal debate over who had it tougher, father or son (or, mother or daughter):
The chart above, adapted from a recent Bureau of Labor Statistics report, shows the difference in weekly pay between people with a given education level today and their counterparts from a generation ago.
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/07/07/do-you-earn-more-than-your-parents-did/
==========

Credit card delinquencies fall to 8-year low + & Auto Delinquencies Declined in Q1

[mEDITate-OR:
find where going down, is seen as going up...
----------
Consumers paying more credit card bills on time

========
mEDITate-OR:
wonder where they are getting all that money from...

Two places, probably:

Those who have lost their jobs may be using their mortgage payment money to pay down more expensive, non-discharged credit card debts

Those who still have employment - self or with others - might be "hunkering down", and paying off more expensive credit card debts.

Since the banks/lenders are not even trying to help U.S., we might, just possibly, be helping ourselves.

Very interesting.

---------

As is THIS little quote from another article:

"Trading business information, Chiesi would say, was "like an orgasm."

-----------
jgbell -

Daniel, a question for you: do you know whether or not when a debtor enters bankruptcy and is discharged, does the creditor/lender write off that debt, or do they continue to list it as "delinquent"?

Also, at what point do the creditors write off these delinquent accounts as noncollectable. You see my problem with this "statistic" is that we are also being told that the "cure" rates for all of these loans is going down - drastically! For 90 days, there are, now, NO cures being seen! So, if they are NOT being cured - bcuz if they were it would support your reasoning - are they simply being "de-listed", dropped off like the unemployed.

We believe there is, and will try to find for you, a statement by the ABA that this is true.

Bcuz, if it is, there maybe three things going on here: ONE, that due to tightened loan standards, a lack of lending (such as new home equity loans) and reductions in lines of credit, the total amounts borrowed - both new and existing - are declining fast; TWO, bcuz of the rise in bankruptcies, strategic defaults and short sales, the universe of "delinquents" - the adult kind, not the childish kind - may be shrinking; and THREE, those who are left in the underwater sand states - but not underwater - AND the rest of U.S. are in fact making our payments, regularly and on time.

If these three things are occurring, it probably means that what we - you and U.S. - are really seeing is NOT what we would like to be seeing here.

===========

Credit card delinquencies fall to 8-year low

http://money.cnn.com/2010/07/07/news/economy/credit_delinquencies/index.htm

=====

Credit Card and Auto Delinquencies Declined in Q1

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/07/credit-card-and-auto-delinquencies-declined-in-q1/59289/

===========

Wednesday, July 7, 2010

When are the super-regional U.S. banks going to show some game?

[mEDITate-OR:

not recognize what we in the law call "a very 'NICE' question"

{they really aren't don't you know...

such as when IS it ok to [help?] kill someone, and when is it not...

and when DID you begin to live, and when were you still lying in there, possibly thinking about it...

!!! }

What is interesting about this "modest suggestion" by Heidi Herself...

is not only what the answers might really be...

but, also, who she is talking about.

Read below her list of sellers and potential buyers.

Fascinating.

===========

Street Sweep

Following the money in banking and economics

JULY 2, 2010, 11:52 AM

By Heidi N. Moore, contributor

When are the super-regional U.S. banks

going to show some game?

With the July 4th weekend upon us, it's time to think about patriotic duty. Are a group of banks in good health becoming too aloof from the work of cleaning up bank failures?

For the past two years, many in the banking sector have been making eyes at BB&T (BBT), PNC Financial Services Group (PNC) and U.S. Bancorp (USB), who could be big acquirers if they wanted to be. Will they ever step up to the plate?

Potential Buyers
Large Cap: U.S. Bancorp, PNC Financial, BB&T
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic: First Niagra Financial, M&T Bank, Northwest Bancshares, OceansFirst Financial, People's United Financial
Southeast and Southwest: CenterState Banks, First Community Bancshares, First Horizon National Corp., Home BancShares, Iberiabank, Prosperity Bancshares, Renasant, SCBT Financial, Trustmark, United Community Banks
West: Center Financial, CVB Financial, Heritage Financial, Nara Bancorp, TriCo Bancshares, Umpqua and Washington Federal
Potential Sellers
Abington Bancorp, Boston Private Financial, Cardinal Financial, Encore Bancshares, Susquehanna Bancshares, Western Alliance Bancorporation, Wilmington Trust
Potential Buyers Who Could Become Sellers
Bryn Mawr Bank, Columbia Banking System, Citizens South Banking Corp, First Financial, First Midwest Bancorp, MB Financial, PacWest Bancorp

=========

Update on FHA Seller Concessions

[mEDITate-OR:

find yourselves falling - faster & deeper - than you expected...

===========

JGBell wrote on Wed, 7/7/2010 - 5:16 am

This is very interesting, Jim.

As we have seen recently, especially here in AZ -- aka, Arid-zone-AH -- almost immediately after the end of the Buyers Tax Credit program, there began a large drop in "asking prices". Just prior TO the end we in AZ saw a smaller, but significant drop in "asking prices", or in deal making price reductions and/or concessions. When it became obvious that the Tax Credit was not going to be extended, or probably renewed again, seller - many of whom had enter the RE market to try to sell their underwater homes - began to cut their prices to TRY to get their homes sold!

Since then, many if not most of the "new" sellers have taken their homes back off the market. And, those that are left in it are cutting their prices, again, even lower, to make whatever sale they can find.

This raises an interesting question: IF sellers no longer can offer "concessions", keeping the sales prices level, will this and they now be forced to cut prices even more to make any sale at all?

That may drive the price of homes down even farther & faster than you are predicting.

-------------

TUESDAY, JULY 06, 2010

Update on FHA Seller Concessions

by CalculatedRisk on 7/06/2010 06:53:00 PM

==============

MBA: Mortgage Purchase Applications Decrease, Refis increase

[mEDITate-OR:

not see we are now back to normal, when Clinton left office....

"Well...", as RonnieR used to tells U.S., isn't this very interesting.

When Bill Clinton was in office, the index rose from 100 to 300 = up 200

When WBush was in his 1st term, the index rose from 300 to 500 = up 200.

When WBush was in his 2nd term, the index dropped from 500 to 175 = down 325.

Which means, of course, that all of U.S. are now more than 150% worse off...

than we were when W took over the office from Bill.

That is NOT what the Far Right amoung U.S. wants to see, or hear, or learn.
{nor will they appreciate my sense of humour...}

----------

========

WEDNESDAY, JULY 07, 2010

MBA: Mortgage Purchase Applications Decrease

Refis increase

by CalculatedRisk on 7/07/2010 07:21:00 AM

The MBA reports: Mortgage Refinance Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

http://www.mbaa.org/NewsandMedia/PressCenter/73352.htm
=============

REIS: Mall Vacancy Rate rises in Q2 - & next REISs' apartment numbers.

[mEDITate-OR:
find some shopping experiences much more difficult to find, any more.

As we said it was not going to look good..., in fact, getting worse.
--------
Strip Mall Vacancy Rate

-----------

However, it does appear that in the 1st of W's recessions that Regional Malls were later to be affected, but were more sharply hit.

In this latest of W's recessions, strip malls appear to have "anticipated" the recession, while Regional Malls appear not to have.

Both however, appear to be affected at about the same rates of increase, albeit the Strips being stripped of customers more severely.

And, for both, while it is still getting worse, it appears CLOSE to hitting bottom.

Finding some good news in getting slightly less bad news.

-----------

Next, we will see the latest REIS apartment numbers.

===========
Remember: to ckick on the title to go to the article
and then on the chart to see the large one.
=======
TUESDAY, JULY 06, 2010

Reis: Mall Vacancy Rate rises in Q2

by CalculatedRisk on 7/06/2010 11:59:00 PM

=====

Reis: U.S. Office Vacancy Rate at 17 year high + tomorrow apartments & shopping malls

[mEDITate-OR:
find vacant..., places where you don't want any vacancies....

Thanks to CR we have this very interesting graph.
--------
This graph shows the office vacancy rate starting 1991

-----------

Why is this so interesting you might, but should not have to ask...

"Well...", as RonnieR used to tell U.S. it shows ALL of those of U.S...

on the very Far Right and those somewhat more to the left..., of them...

that ON the far left is the beginning of Clinton's term of office & the end of W's father's.

Precisely in the middle, at the end of William Jefferson's two terms..

you do see, do you not, the lowest point of vacancy rates...

And, TO the Far Right of that point, there are two (2) recessions in W's term of "vacant office"s

one beginning when he did, and one beginning when he, finally, left U.S.

Sadly, and we must wonder about this, he never appears as "vacant" as his father did.

Somehow that seems to U.S., with 20-20 vision, to be somewhat backwards.

------------

Tomorrow, we will be getting the Reis numbers and charts for apartments and for shopping malls. They will be as, or more, ugly.

=============

Remember to go to CR's web site, and then...

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

=========

Tuesday, July 06, 2010

Reis: U.S. Office Vacancy Rate at 17 year high

by CalculatedRisk on 7/06/2010 08:23:00 AM

=========

==============

Tuesday, July 6, 2010

Long-Term Unemployment Is Still a Problem

[mEDITate-OR:

not see we are stuck..., in a rut..., and can't get out...

---------

Jul 06 09:00 AM

Actually, John, your charts do help U.S. see what we need to. We have asked Jim @ CR to insert a shorter period chart on many of his long term charts so we can see better the current levels of fluctuation.

What his chart does not, but yours does, is show U.S. the LACK of movement. As Sherlock pointed out, the dog didn't bark.

We are NOT seeing any major change in the direction of unemployment consolidation, nor the end of it.

Bad, very bad.

---------

The current consolidation period is now approaching twice the duration of the longest of the other three (1983). This is reflective of the unprecedented duration of long-term unemployment shown in theCalculated Risk graph at the start of the article.

----------

Long-Term Unemployment Is Still a Problem

July 05, 2010

http://seekingalpha.com/article/213118-long-term-unemployment-is-still-a-problem?source=email

=============

The Employment Depression

[mEDITate-OR:
get really depressed that you don't see the full extent of the depression...

This is a very different chart and article, pointing out what almost no one else sees.
That if we look at the level of employment at the beginning of W's reign - aka, when we finally got rid of Bill - we see that at NO time during the W term of office did employment ever get back to where it was when he started.

From 64.75% of U.S. with jobs after Clinton
down to 62% and back up to 63.5% - but not back...
and now down to 58 or 59%

That is ONE (1) big hole to fill.
-----------