CS - Seattle = Total Decline from Peak = Seattle’s Spring Bounce Picks Up Steam

[mEDITate-OR:
wonder what's up..., doc
and what's not, and how to fix it.
-----------
If you like to play with graphs...
believing that there is no law against it...
you might enjoy the Seattle Blogs'
interactive graph of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities
courtesy of Tableau Software
(check and un-check the boxes on the right):
http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2011/06/28/case-shiller-seattles-spring-bounce-picks-up-steam/
----------
Meanwhile, the 1st chart show U.S. how much certain cities have fallen
and how LONG they have been falling.
Note that Seattle and Portland are VERY different then Phoenix and Las Vegas.
The 2nd chart shows U.S. how much some have NOT fallen.
Some cities are AT their decade low; however, some are very much not.
----------
The next two charts show U.S. once again how the same data can be displayed very differently.
The 1st is from the LATimes and is a simply bar chart.
The 2nd is from a Seeking Alpha article, and shows how you can use simple numbers, and colored arrows, to show relationships.
------


----------

------

------------

==========
CS - Seattle = Total Decline from Peak
Seattle’s Spring Bounce Picks Up Steam
http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2011/06/28/case-shiller-seattles-spring-bounce-picks-up-steam/
------------
April S&P/Case-Shiller Housing Numbers Show Improvement
http://seekingalpha.com/article/277259-april-s-p-case-shiller-housing-numbers-show-improvement
=========

LPS = Loans 90+ Days Delinquent, Loans in Foreclosure Outnumber Foreclosure Sales Fifty to One + Banks repossess $304 billion in soured mortgages in 2010

[mEDITate-OR:
discover for yourself that the foreclosure mess is much worse than even we thought it was...
-----
There are two must read article out.
Here are some of the low-high-lights
-------------
the number of mortgages that are 90 or more days delinquent,
combined with the foreclosure inventory at the end of May, 
totaled 4,084,557.
With foreclosure sales at 78,676 at month end,
the volume of serious delinquencies and foreclosures
over-shadowed the number of foreclosure sales by 50:1
-----------
Banks repossessed $304 billion on foreclosed mortgages in 2010
more the double the combined amount in 2006 and 2007
-------------
The number is still climbing and shows no signs of peaking
As of May, roughly $319.7 billion of mortgages written in 2006 and 2007 reached the initial stage of the foreclosure process
-------------
Roughly 3% of all mortgages in the country
representing $21.8 billion of principal
are in REO
--------------
Roughly two-thirds of the past-due balances on delinquent mortgages
were written between 2005 and 2007
----------
Part of the purpose of reading these is to fully understand the posting below.
------------

=========
LPS = Loans 90+ Days Delinquent, Loans in Foreclosure
Outnumber Foreclosure Sales Fifty to One
http://www.worldpropertychannel.com/us-markets/residential-real-estate-1/lps-may-mortgage-monitor-report-lender-processing-services-problem-loans-distressed-sales-home-foreclosures-foreclosure-sales-default-rates-negative-equity-4482.php
--------------
Banks repossess $304 billion in soured mortgages in 2010
http://www.housingwire.com/2011/06/30/banks-write-off-304-billion-in-soured-mortgages-in-2010-equifax
=================

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Serious Delinquencies: May 2011 = single-family delinquency rate falls

[mEDITate-OR:
not know if the situation is really improving...
or still going to Hell=AZ in a hand basket.
-----------
While both Bill@CR and the Paper Economy show U.S. that the FMae&FMac problem RE loans appear to be getting better, you NEED to read Bill's explanation of what is really going on.
What he is telling U.S. is that all is NOT what it appears to be...
that bcuz pending mods were still counted at "delinquent"
the numbers were shown at the peak to be much higher than they probably were
but having said that, he is also of the opinion that the situation is improving.
Bcuz "the number" is now going down.
-----------

----------

-------------

=========
Fannie Mae Delinquencies: May 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/06/fannie-mae-delinquencies-may-2011.html
-------
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Serious Delinquencies Decline in May
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/06/fannie-mae-and-freddie-mac-serious.html
------------
Fannie Mae single-family delinquency rate falls in May
http://www.housingwire.com/2011/06/30/fannie-mae-single-family-delinquency-rate-falls-in-may
========

CoreLogic Home Price Index Shows Second Consecutive Month-Over-Month Increase BUT This is the tenth straight month of year-over-year declines

[mEDITate-OR:
forget to seasonally adjust the Core Logic...
since they don't do it to themselves.
------------
What is most striking is that "location" means a great deal of money.
And, NOTE:
While home prices appear to be going up in NYC...
they also have a huge backlog of foreclosures...
that are NOT being sold - yet.
As bad as Florida was, and is, New York will be MUCH worse.
--------------

This is the tenth straight month of year-over-year declines

and the index is still 2.4% below the March 2009 low

---------

Prices fell the most in May in Idaho, dropping 16.4%.

Michigan home prices declined nearly 13%,

Arizona prices decreased 12.1% and

Illinois prices slid 11.8%.

Home prices in Nevada last month were 11.6% lower than April prices.

---------

Home prices rose the most in New York last month with a 4.4% gain,

followed by Vermont with a 3.9% increase and

North Dakota at 3.8%

---------

including distressed sales, is 32.7% lower than the April 2006 peak.

Excluding sales of distressed properties, the index is 21.1% lower since the high of five years ago.

--------------------

==========
CoreLogic Home Price Index
Shows Second Consecutive Month-Over-Month Increase
(BUT This is the tenth straight month of year-over-year declines)
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/corelogic-home-price-index-shows-second-consecutive-month-over-month-increase-124770298.html
-----------
CoreLogic May home price index rose 0.8%
http://www.housingwire.com/2011/06/30/corelogic-may-home-price-index-rose-0-8
--------------
CoreLogic: May Home Price Index increased 0.8%
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/06/corelogic-may-home-price-index.html
===========

MBA = average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.46 percent from 4.57 percent

[mEDITate-OR:
wonder what the crisis...
you know The One...
the Greek bailout, or not, crisis
or the Budget Deficit crisis for U.S.
You pick one for yourself.
---------
Disirregardless, "crises" usually mean a run towards "safety" in 10yr TBills.
That should drive RE mortgage rates down, again.
"To be, or not to be; that is the question."
Did Shakespeare say that before or after he told U.S. to kill all the lawyers?
-----------

----------

-----------
===========
Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – June 29 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/06/reading-rates-mba-application-survey_29.html
------------
Fixed mortgage rates steady near yearly lows
Bellwether 30-year fixed rate up slightly to 4.51 percent
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38770102/ns/business-personal_finance/
==========

Pending Home Sales May 2011

[mEDITate-OR:
think that a bird almost in the hand is better than one on the table...
{or something like that}
----------
As CR points out: "This is the first time since April 2010 that contract activity was above year-ago levels"
However, as others point out THAT month was immediately before the end of the last First Time Buyers Tax Credit - an abnormally high number of closing.
And, this is signings, NOT closings.
What will be will be. Or not.
----------

---------

========
Pending Home Sales May 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/06/pending-home-sales-may-2011.html
=========

MBA Application Survey – June 29 2011 = Purchase Application activity decreases

[mEDITate-OR:
only think you hear the engine running...
-----------
While both Bill@CR and the Paper Economy tell U.S. that the mortgage interest rates are down, again...
they also show U.S. that is having little to no effect.
The problem(s) are:
first, those still with jobs either have already REFId, or cannot do so...
and
second, lender are NOT making new RE loans.
some blame tighter lending standards
but some point out that both FMae&FMac are at the top of their lending authority.
AND
they must, under the existing law, substantially reduce their total lending amounts.
and
the jumbo RE loan limits are also being reduced.
---------
Even if there were no more foreclosures, there would be a reduced supply of funds...
but, of course, there are more foreclosures...,
as we learned to say in Vietnam:  "incoming"!
---------

the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage declined to 4.46% since last week

while the purchase application volume declined 3.0% and

the refinance application volume dropped 2.6% over the same period.

The four week average of purchase activity is at about 1997 levels - and mostly moving sideways.

the purchase application volume remains near the lowest level seen in well over a decade

---------------
as the unemployment post below argues
THIS, too, is the shape of an "L" recovery.
translated from economics - there IS not recovery, yet.
------

---------

----------

==========
MBA Application Survey – June 29 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/06/reading-rates-mba-application-survey_29.html
-------------
MBA Mortgage Purchase Application activity decreases
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/06/mba-mortgage-purchase-application_29.html
==============

Unemployment: Initial, Continued and Extended Claims June 30 = the 12th straight week with initial claims above 400,000, and the 4-week average is at about the same the level as in January

[mEDITate-OR:
think that Calculated Risk and the Paper Economy show U.S. it all...
and be too Far Right..., and XXX rated.
-------
"They" have been telling you - you, me and U.S. - that tis getting better.
"We" - primarily me - have been telling you that THIS is an "L" shaped recovery.
This is what Bill@CR says it looks like, to him.
--------
the 12th straight week with initial claims above 400,000
and
the 4-week average is at about the same the level as in January
----------
This is "trouble" spelled with a "T", too Far Right here in River City.
-----------
Note: we have added an article that is very thorough in its analysis of the full range of unemployment issues.
Worth reading.
--------

------------

-----------

===========
Unemployment: Initial, Continued and Extended Claims June 30
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/06/extended-unemployment-initial-continued_30.html
-------------
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline slightly to 428,000
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/06/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims_30.html
--------------
Analyst Blog: Initial Claims Fall Slightly
http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/56215/Initial+Claims+Fall+Slightly
============

MBA-Freddie Mac - Fixed mortgage rates hold steady at 4.5% near 2011 lows

[mEDITate-OR:
miss the fact that there has been almost no change in mortgage rates for three weeks.
that might be due to the crisis in Greece, or it might not be due to anything.
------------

----------

-----------

=====
MBA-Freddie Mac -
Fixed mortgage rates hold steady at 4.5% near 2011 lows
============

Inflation-adjusted house prices = Nominal house prices compared to owner-equivalent rents

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that since your home value has gone up, your home value has gone up...
or
see that with inflation that is not as true as it appears.
AND
see that The Bubble Years really were a bubble.
------------

----------

=========

Look at This Chart: There Is No Spending Recovery Under $100K = Consumer Divide Grows Between Haves and Have-nots

[mEDITate-OR:
see not what has been done to U.S...
intentionally.
-----------

-----------

==========
Look at This Chart: There Is No Spending Recovery Under $100K
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/06/look-at-this-chart-there-is-no-spending-recovery-under-100k/241054/
-------------
Consumer Divide Grows Between Haves and Have-nots
Growing Economic Disparity Will Play Role in Deciding Marketing's Winners and Losers as 
http://adage.com/article/news/consumer-divide-decide-marketing-s-winners-losers/228414/
===========

Landlords see income gains on rental properties + top rental markets about to "explode" = More consumers forced to rent due to foreclosure

[mEDITate-OR:
wonder where all those foreclosed ex-homeowners are now...
----------
There are three very interesting HW stories that explain their take on the shift in home ownership into rental, and the effects that is having on U.S.
This chart shows U.S. the various housing programs that have been implemented by the Federal government, and the impacts that has had on new home sales.
Generally, new home sales has meant both new family formation and many jobs in the economy.
This Great Recession, or Little Depression, has seen the collapse of both.
-----------

=========
Landlords see income gains on rental properties
http://www.housingwire.com/2011/06/27/landlords-see-income-gains-on-rental-properties
--------------
John Burns says top rental markets about to "explode"
http://www.housingwire.com/2011/06/07/john-burns-says-top-rental-markets-about-to-explode
--------------
More consumers forced to rent due to foreclosure
http://www.housingwire.com/2011/06/24/more-consumers-forced-to-rent-due-to-foreclosure-transunion
==========