Home Sales: Distressing Gap (post revision)

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that when your altimeter is broken...
that the distance between you and The Ground...
hasn't changed.
And, that mountain right in front of you, therefore, is not there.
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Here is the first "distressing gap" graph after the benchmark revision for existing home sales.
Even with the significant downward revisions to existing home sales for the years 2007 through 2011, most of the distressing gap remains.
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Please, take note of the very far right of the red line.
that is how much better the new home sales were this month.
See the very far right of the blue line...
that is how much better the existing home sales were this month.
Now...
doesn't THAT make it all feel better.
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Home Sales: Distressing Gap (post revision)
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/home-sales-distressing-gap.html
============

New Home Sales: Nov = increase in November to 315,000 SAAR

[mEDITate-OR:
assume this report is like your ex-wife telling you she doesn't hate you, as much, any more.
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Now, doesn't that make you feel about as good as Wall Street did reading this!
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New Home Sales: November 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/12/new-home-sales-november-2011.html
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New Home Sales increase in November to 315,000 SAAR
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/new-home-sales-increase-in-november-to.html
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Philly Fed State Coincident Indexes increase in November

[mEDITate-OR:
believe that in every way, every day we are getting better and better...
until they file for divorce
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In the past month,
the indexes increased in 44 states,
decreased in four,
and remained unchanged in two
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What you may find interesting is the changes out on the West Coast
and West of the Rocky Mountains.
This time Wa, Cal & Idaho are better
and Or, Nev and AZ are worse.
Utah stays better
but Montana makes a big leap forward
while NM takes a big leap back.
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Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators.
This map was all red during the worst of the recession,
and all green earlier this year 
- but this is an improvement from a few months ago.
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Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators

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This map was all red during the worst of the recession

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 all green earlier this year

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Philly Fed State Coincident Indexes increase in November
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/philly-fed-state-coincident-indexes.html
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FHFA Monthly Home Prices: Oct

[mEDITate-OR:
believe them when they tell U.S. that FHFA sales numbers do not matter.
------
And, then remember that since the RE collapse FMae&FMac and FHAnVA
have been (y)our ONLY source of mortgage financing.
So, what they currently think they see...
is what only they are doing.
-----
Might not be "perfect"
but hardly irrelevant
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FHFA Monthly Home Prices: October 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/12/fhfa-monthly-home-prices-oc
==========

GDP Report Q3 2011 (Third Rough Estimate) = NEARING STALL SPEED = Growth even weaker than feared = 1.8 percent annual rate + growth revised down on healthcare

[mEDITate-OR:
miss the feeling of being way out of balance...
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We were heading down
now we appear to be heading down faster than they were telling U.S.
This is NOT good.
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Bull Trip!: GDP Report Q3 2011 (Third Rough Estimate)
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/12/bull-trip-gdp-report-q3-2011-third.html
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NEARING STALL SPEED
Growth even weaker than feared
http://money.cnn.com/2011/12/22/news/economy/gdp_report/index.htm?iid=Lead
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US third-quarter growth revised down on healthcare
But stronger business investment and a fall in inventories pointed to a pickup in the current period
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45763989/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/#.TvNEZTXLxKI
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Lawler: The NAR “benchmark revision story” is not over!

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that the emperor is wearing clothes...
even when you can obviously see that they are not !!!
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While this chart is based on the variations in reports about Mass.
FAR more disturbing is the info about this:
"Sales in the Northeast were revised down by a TON more than any other region,
while sales in the West were revised down by a TON less!
That seems “sorta weird,”
Note: The West includes three sand states - Cal, Nev and AZ
And, Or, Wa and now even Idaho & Utah are not much better.
So
how is this possible?
Tis not.
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Lawler: The NAR “benchmark revision story” is not over!
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/lawler-nar-benchmark-revision-story-is.html
=========

CoreLogic: For Every Two U.S. Homes For Sale, There is One in The 'Shadows' + Shadow inventory down 16% from a year ago = CoreLogic: 1.6M homes not yet on the market represent 5-month supply

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that less of less is more...
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CoreLogic: For Every Two U.S. Homes For Sale, There is One in The 'Shadows'

http://www.worldpropertychannel.com/north-america-residential-news/shadow-inventory-residential-shadow-market-home-foreclosures-condos-in-foreclosure-corelogic-pending-supply-distressed-properties-multiple-listing-services-mls-seriously-delinquent-loans-5118.php

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Shadow inventory down 16% from a year ago

http://www.inman.com/news/2011/12/21/shadow-inventory-down-16-a-year-ago

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CoreLogic: 1.6M homes not yet on the market represent 5-month supply

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/corelogic-existing-home-shadow.html

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CR+PE = Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 364,000 + Unemployment: Initial, Continued and Extended Claims Dec 22

[mEDITate-OR
assume that switching jobs is the same thing as
re-hiring the long-term unemployed
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To say that these are three very different graphical views, is redundant.
The 1st, 2nd and last show U.S. only from the Peak.
CR shows U.S. a more "historically accurate" view.
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So, while we are getting not much worse.
and we may have stopped hemorrhaging jobs
We are also a LONG way from being back to "normal".
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It STILL is an "L" shaped jobs recovery.
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CR+PE =
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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 364,000
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims_22.html
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Extended Unemployment:
Initial, Continued and Extended Unemployment Claims December 22 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/12/extended-unemployment-initial-continued_22.
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This Is Our Vote For CHART OF THE YEAR = Sweden vs Finland Bonds

[mEDITate-OR:

not ask:

To print bonds/money...
or not to print bonds/money...

that no longer is The Question.

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(Our) favorite example of this is Sweden vs. Finland.
The former (in Orange) is outside of the euro zone and can print its own money;
the latter (in green) uses the Euro and can't.
Historically, the two countries have borrowed money at roughly the same rate.
Both are considered to be stable and fiscally disciplined. 
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Investors flocked to the country that could print its own money.

This defining idea of 2011
also resulted in ultra-cheap rates in the UK, Japan, and of course the U.S

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This Is Our Vote For CHART OF THE YEAR = Sweden vs Finland Bonds

http://www.businessinsider.com/finland-vs-sweden-yields-chart-of-the-year-2011-12

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MBA Application Survey – Dec 21

[mEDITate-OR:
believe that hope springs eternal...
in home refinancers' breasts....
-------
Bcuz with interest rates falling even lower...
the REFIs once again spike...
only to be refused, once again.
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Oddly, purchase apps are FAR more accurate in telling U.S. whether we are out looking to buy ourselves "a home".
Than "existing home sales" are
bcuz the do NOT include "all cash investment" buyers.
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Below are the two Sold @daTop charts that separate REFIs from purchase apps
Very different, are they not.
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Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – December 21 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/12/reading-rates-mba-application-survey_21.html
=========

MBA+FMac Reading Rates: Dec 21

[mEDITate-OR:
wonder who is making all that money...
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Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – December 21 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/12/reading-rates-mba-application-survey_21.html
=========

PE+CR = Existing Home Sales Report: Nov = Rose 4% In Nov + NAR - Continue to Climb in November = 4.42 million SAAR, 7.0 months of supply

[mEDITate-OR:
fail to see that even after the NAR "corrections"...
we are in a world of hurt...
----------
Existing sales are still way down...
whether or not we include short sales and foreclosures
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Prices are still way down...
whether or not we include the sand states
or short sales and foreclosures
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Current supply of LISTED homes are now way down.
whether or not we include REOs or the "hidden inventory"
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Below are three PE chart that show U.S. precisely that.
Along with the similar "views" from Bill@CR.
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Existing Home Sales Report: November 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/12/existing-home-sales-report-november.html
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Existing Home Sales in November: 4.42 million SAAR, 7.0 months of supply
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/existing-home-sales-in-november-442.html
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Existing-Home Sales Continue to Climb in November
http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2011/12/ehs_nov
=======

CR+PE = NAR Revises the Great Housing Decline = Existing Home Sales Revisions = It's official: Housing market was sicker than we thought

[mEDITate-OR:
understate the NAR understatements...
--------
The Good News is that in each local MLS they really DID know the correct numbers...
both for sales and for prices.
The Bad News is the rest of U.S. did not.
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NAR Revises the Great Housing Decline
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/12/nar-revising-great-housing-decline.html
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Existing Home Sales Revisions
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/existing-home-sales-revisions.html
========

"Shadow" = Housing Analysis: Bull and Bear

[mEDITate-OR:
see "shadow housing" that is not there...
and pretend that "shadow housing" cannot be there...
if you, personally, do not see it.
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JGBellHimself

wrote on Tue, 12/20/2011 - 7:25 pm

Bill, said you: "I think it is location dependent now"

Asked we, are you, "now", being serious?

In Fla (due to the robo signing delays) and in NY (where the s-l-o-o-w foreclosures have created a Wall Street "stock pile" of delinquencies) the foreclosures have not even BEGUN to collapse the RE delinquency markets.

Maelstroms of Gulf Hurricane proportions.

In Cal there has been a "mediation" delay that just ended; and in Nev there is a new "foreclosure delay" that has just started.

To say that the people in those states are, well, "different"..., is, well, redundant.

In AZ there is nothing - well, except for the DAM(n) Colorado River drinking and irrigating water - to stem the flood of foreclosures.

Many, too?, assume that there are NO foreclosures left in AZ.

They might be Too Far Right, or they might not. Or, foreclosures might be "off the charts", so to speak, economically. Oddly, needing to raise cash, BKofAmer has just increased their supply of pre-foreclosures, to re-fill the REO bucket. Some charts still suggest that there is about another one (1) year supply of "incoming" foreclosures.

So, are you, now, Bill, saying that "all the sand states are not equal"?

Fancy that! We will, of course.

So, are you, now. Bill, saying that - with the possible exceptions of Detroit and Atlanta - all the rest of U.S. are about equal. And, admitting that the sand states WERE, are, and will BE, totally different?

And, that by NOT parsing those "aberrant" states, you are not telling U.S. The Truth about the rest of U.S.?

IF so, good on ya!

If not, why not?

As "They" say:

"It's about time!"

and

"It's about money!"

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Housing Analysis: Bull and Bear
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/housing-analysis-bull-and-bear.html
======

Income distribution charts of the day, middle-class edition + “Brandeis Ratio” - how many "medians" do you earn = or modestly "eat"

[mEDITate-OR:
not understand the True Meaning..., of Christmas...
-------

In the true spirit of Christmas, may we suggest a "Modest Proposal" -

that instead of "taxing" - literally and/or figuratively, Those People...

what we should -

as in economically, sociologically, legally and maybe even morally - 

do...

is require each of them, each year to "eat" -

literally and figuratively -

as many "Medians" as they are now equal to.

We mean, really, how many problems would that not solve for U.S.?

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Income distribution charts of the day, middle-class edition
http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/12/20/income-distribution-charts-of-the-day-middle-class-edition/
========

Innocently, until proven guilty, he said: "Fannie and Freddie must go - here's how"

[mEDITate-OR:
not even realize that we are being "Gamed"...
--------
by those better at it than U.S.
literally and figuratively.
----------
JGBellHimself

This man - Richard M. Kovacevich is the retired Chairman & CEO of Wells Fargo - having done so in 2009 - AFTER Wells bought Wichovia, and AFTER Wells was found guilty of bribing muni-bond sellers to buy their business. And HE thinks that we should now put all of our mortgage financing into his one basket?

Do NOT misunderstand him, what he really, truly wants is for Countrywide (aka Bank of America), WAMU (aka Chase) and Wichovia (aka his pension & stock in Wells) to not only "originate" most, if not all, RE mortgages; "service" (expletive deleted in the sp, maybe) most, if not all, RE mortgages; but now to also "securitize" all of our RE mortgages.

What he also want you to know is that you, too, will, like W did before, have to "bailout" his bank, and the rest of them "too big to fail", if they make too many bad RE loans, again.

What he also wants you to know is that, like his friend Jamie, he does not want any more - well, actually any at all - regulations by U.S. - not banking, not consumer protection, not securities fraud, not mortgage RESPA fraud, and no criminal responsibility for simple straight forward financial fraud.

He is too Far Right about one thing though - at the game of fraud, he and his friends are much better than we - the rest of U.S. - are.

"Yes we can!"..., trust him..., and not bother our silly little peoples heads, to "verify".

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JGBellHimself

You, too, may, permissive, find it odd - that while Execs of FMae&FMac were just charged by the SEC for "violations", that this Honorable Gentleman was not.

There is "No Think" that those "criminals" - to be proven later - did that this Honorable Gentleman's company did not also do.

With one minor exception - package very bad ARMs and subprime RE loans into "investment securities" to be sold to you.

That is what he now wishes for U.S. to give him - the legal right to do to U.S. what previously he could not.

Bcuz tis published in CNN it must be reasonable, must it not. What possible reason would CNN have to be a party to misleading U.S.?

===========
Fannie and Freddie must go - here's how
http://money.cnn.com/2011/12/19/news/fannie_freddie/index.htm?iid=H_E_News
=======

New Residential Construction Report: November 2011

[mEDITate-OR:
not even see something terribly odd...
---------
that a stunning increase in multi-housing...
makes everyone one of U.S. see a housing recovery - right before our eyes.
when it simply is not there.
---------
Sold@daTop shows U.S. a very different view.
Note, how low the green shaded lines are down...
and then ask yourselves "Why green?"
------
there is no funding for buying condos
there is no funding for jumbo RE loans
so they build "apartments" to house those vacated from foreclosed homes.
Someday, they might even create jobs for some of U.S. to pay for them.
-------------
Probably shouldn't hold your breath.
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New Residential Construction Report: November 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/12/new-residential-construction-report.html
===========

Housing Starts increase in November + Multi-family Starts and Completions, Record Low Total Completions in 2011

[mEDITate-OR:
be absolutely blinded by the optimism...
----------
to the fact that last year, the lowest on record, was less than one third of the starts in 2006
and
this year, a newer record low, was less than half of the starts in 2008.
and barely one1/4th the starts in ought-6.
----------
CR tell U.S. the Truth:
Single family starts are still mostly "moving sideways".
and at an incredibly LOW level.
----------
And, now, control of your TV set will be returned to you...
as you try to return from "The Twilight Zone"
------
This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and that housing starts have been mostly moving sideways for about two years and a half years - with slight ups and downs due to the home buyer tax credit.

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The previous record low for multi-family completions was 127.1 thousand in 1993.

It will be close this year, however total completions will be at a record low

- and the U.S. will add the fewest net housing units to the housing stock since the Census Bureau started tracking completions in the '60s.

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Housing Starts increase in November
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/housing-starts-increase-in-november.html
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Multi-family Starts and Completions, Record Low Total Completions in 2011
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/multi-family-starts-and-completions.html
========