Friday, May 21, 2010

April credit card data shows fewer late payments + fewer Bank charge offs


[mEDITate-OR:
wonder if the new, improved credit card rules actually are helping U.S..., help ourselves.

What some of these credit card numbers are telling U.S. is that while we may be improving our positions vis them, they are still in a world of economic hurt.

What they were doing to U.S. was gaming their system against U.S. to raise capitol to offset their RE loan losses. The new, proposed Fed consumer law will substantially reduce their ability to squeeze U.S. out of our money. That make their problems much worse, and different.

Since we did not cry for Argentina, or her...
we need not cry for these bank robbers either.

----------
Late payment drop shows impact of credit reforms

Before the law took effect, a bank could have raised a customer's interest rate without warning. That would have driven up the minimum payment due. Now, banks can't raise interest rates before giving customers 45 days notice, and can't hike rates on existing balances. The law also curbs over-the-limit fees and penalty fees, and mandates that payments above the minimum be applied to balances with the highest interest rate first.

These restrictions helped keep balances down, which in turn kept minimum payments lower
Minimum payments are usually a percentage of total balance.

To be sure, reining in rate hikes and excessive fees is not the only reason for the delinquency decline. Consumers have been working to reduce their debt as the effects of the recession linger and unemployment remains high. And many cardholders have taken to paying their credit card bills before even their mortgages, a flip from historical norms in the so-called payment hierarchy that reflects the importance of credit cards for managing household spending.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100517/ap_on_bi_ge/us_transunion_credit_card_delinquencies
------------
April credit card data shows fewer late payments

Of the top six U.S. credit card issuers, only Bank of America posted higher charge-offs for April
— 12.71 percent versus 12.54 percent in March.
Citi took the No. 2 highest spot at 11.23 percent of total balances, though that improved from 11.55 percent in March.

TransUnion found the rate of borrowers who fell 90 days or more behind on their card payments dropped to 1.11 percent for the three months ended March 31.
That was down from 1.32 percent in the 2009 first quarter, and
1.21 percent in the final quarter of 2009
The rate hovered between .50 and .75 percent before the recession

Bank of America had the highest late payment rate at 6.73 percent of its total credit card loans,
but that was still less than the 7.07 percent a month earlier.
American Express had the lowest delinquency rate at 3.1 percent, down from 3.3 percent in March.

============

China boosts US debt holdings for first time in six months

[mEDITate-OR:
not see that the Admin has been forced to cave in to China...

At the first of this year China sent U.S. a "message"...
they stopped using their trade surplus dollars to invest in Govt bonds..
they used them, instead, to by "stuff" that they needed for THEIR economy.

So, by increasing their imports from U.S., they could show U.S. a much smaller trade balance in their favor. AND, by not buying our Govt bond = TBills, they could show U.S. that they could refuse to support out borrowing needs to cover [y]our Fed deficits !!

We got the "message", and shut the puck up.

They, in turn, have re-started buying "guaranteed" US TBills.

As "They" have told U.S...., for years:
     "Everything in life is a trade off."
Roughly translated from the Chinese...
     "Bcuz we have you by The Balls...
     your hearts and minds...
     and economy..., WILL follow our direction(s)."


Sleep tight...
and remember when you only feared the BEDouins biting your backside.
---------
China grabs more Treasurys
The Chinese are buying Treasurys again
http://wallstreet.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2010/05/17/china-grabs-more-treasurys/
-----------
China boosts US debt holdings for first time in six months
China effectively pegged at about 6.8 to the dollar since mid-2008

Net foreign purchases of US long-term securities leaped to a record 140.5 billion dollars in March from 47.1 billion in February


Japan, the world's second-largest economy and the number-two holder of Treasuries


increased its holding to 784.9 billion dollars from 768.5 billion


Britain, the third-biggest holder, also was a net buyer, bumping up its holding to 784.9 billion dollars from 768.5 billion in February.


===========

Cash-strapped landlords let evictions lag

[mEDITate-OR:
wonder where the money went...

This story from the AZ Republic tell U.S. about the other side of the landlord equation.

Here in AZ, the massive increase in available foreclosed home and unsold condos has had almost as great and impact on apartments as the job losses have.

And, just as home and cmcl properties - offices, malls, and hotels - have lost half of their values, landlords can find NO financing for selling their properties, yet.

As we oft said of business, like land-line phone co's...:
"They are technically bankrupt, even if they don't know it, yet."

What this also means is that it is a LOT more ugly than we see, or they are telling U.S. about.

------------
Cash-strapped landlords let evictions lag
===========
  • JGBHimself
  • May-21 @ 12:19 AM



Believe it...
banks/lenders do not foreclose bcuz they cannot afford to write down/off the debt;
banks/lenders are hiding REO's bcuz they cannot sell them as fast as they are getting them and are trying to manage the sale prices;
underwater owners walking away from RE loans they never can pay on a home that will never, EVER return their lost equity;
commercial property owners not evicting store tenants bcuz if they do the last store WILL turn out their lights, and stop paying too;
and now apartments, buried by the foreclosed home competition, trapped like an underwater rat.

All of them, collecting anything they can still get their hands on, knowing that they are already BK. And, you think things are getting better?

-----------

Fixing America's fiscal crisis: Federal budget: $59 billion here, $300 billion there...

[mEDITate-OR:
like getting lied to about what is best for U.S.

While we do not agree very often with Feldstein, this time he IS "politically, economically correct".
We cannot grow our way out of this economic mess...
and especially NOT by cutting taxes.

What we CAN do...
about the short term mess AND about the long term deficit problem
is return some, or many, or even most of the WBush tax cuts to the preW levels.

Said Martin Feldstein:
No single policy change could do as much to limit the future deficits and the national debt,"

We were oft told:   "If it ain't broke, don't fix it."
WBush broke it..., and didn't fix it.
We must.
Not only does your retirement funding and health care require it.
But, the willingness of others to loan U.S. money is running dry.
China's ability is down by 80%
The Gulf oil states ability is down by 50%
Europe's ability is totally gone, internalized, as in Greased...

Oddly, most very oddly, by doing NOTHING...
the Congress will solve the problem for U.S.

------------
Federal budget: $59 billion here, $300 billion there...

last week conservative economist Martin Feldstein, who was President Reagan's top economic adviser, said in a Wall Street Journal editorial that while he favors temporarily extending the cuts for everyone, the country can't afford to make them permanent.
"Changing the Obama budget proposal to limit all tax cuts to two years
would reduce the total deficits over the next decade by more than $2 trillion.
No single policy change could do as much to limit the future deficits and the national debt,"
===========

Inflation Rose in April at Lowest Rate Since the ’60s


[mEDITate-OR:
refuse to believe that this all about the cost of oil...

While this might seem like very good news, it might not be.
Clearly, the drop in crude oil prices has caused this drop in CPI.

However, the price YOU pay at the pump has not dropped as much as crude has, so you didn't get the benefits of this CPI decline.

In addition since the price of rental apartments is dropping they think that the cost of "housing" has also dropped. True, if you have lost your job, and been forced out of your home, and now live in a much cheaper apartment, you will SEE this change. However, if you live in the same house, you will get none of the benefits.

And, IF you have been to your local grocery store you will have seen the price of almost everything - except a gallon of milk - has gone up.

So, what has this to do with you..., probably nothing.

Except that you should take note of the fact that college tuition AND medical care cost are exploding even faster than they were, and much faster than inflation.

--------
U.S. Inflation at 44-Year Low as Retail Prices Fall
Inflation Rose in April at Lowest Rate Since the ’60s
---------
U.S. Economy: Consumer Prices Unexpectedly Decreased
----------
Little Change in Core Inflation Picture; CPI down 0.1 Percent in April
Tuition, fees, and child-care prices have seen a 1.7 percent increase in the last three months -
a 7.0 percent annualized rate of growth.
Tuition prices have averaged 5.9 percent annual inflation over the last ten years - 
more than twice as fast as the 2.4 percent inflation overall.

prices-2010-05.jpg
--------
CPIAPR-image2
PPI chart kelsey
=========

Mortgage delinquencies hit 10% = One in 7 U.S. homeowners paying late or in foreclosure


[mEDITate-OR:
not shift along with the problem-loan types...

The RE economic world's a'chang'n..., fast...

This really is startling to see the massive shift in RE loan problems:
from ARMs to Prime loans,
from the sand states to the rest of the county = WA and OR are now getting more worse than the sand states.
prices dropping again, almost everywhere.


By separate article we noted that sellers were dropping their asking prices, a lot more, to snare Buyer Tax Credit customers. Whether home prices will, now, go back up; or continue to drop..., GNK !!!
= GodOnlyKnows
---------
Mortgage delinquencies hit 10%
Mortgage delinquencies spike
In the previous quarter, 9.47% of borrowers were behind on payments; and one year ago, 9.12% were late.
The foreclosure inventory rate, which represents the percentage of mortgaged homes repossessed by lenders,
was fairly flat quarter-over-quarter, inching up to 4.63% from 4.58%.
But it jumped a lot from 12 months earlier, when the rate stood at 3.85%
Prime fixed-rate loans hit 6.17%; prime adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) tipped 13.52%.
Subprime fixed-rates jumped to 25.69%; and subprime ARMs are a whopping 29.09%.
Shift in problem-loan types
Lenders have slowed repossessions for various reasons:
Subprime ARMs accounted for nearly 30% of all delinquencies a year ago, but just under 15% now.
Meanwhile, prime fixed-rate loans delinquencies have grown so much that they represent the single biggest bucket of delinquent mortgages:
37% up from 29% a year ago.
According to a recent report, as much as 31% of all defaults in March were strategic.
---------
One in 7 U.S. homeowners paying late or in foreclosure
Loans that are 90 days or more past due or in foreclosure represent a historically high 68 percent of all problem mortgages
Looming foreclosures and short-sales "suggest we will have more house price declines where we'll see a bottoming of the price decline very late this year into early next year,"
Washington, Maryland, Oregon and Georgia had the largest overall increases in foreclosure starts in the first three months of the year compared with the last three months of 2009
==========

U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index Fell 1.5% Last Week = Loan demand to buy US homes sinks to 13-year low

[mEDITate-OR:
not feel the pain of the bottom dropping out...

There were two significant factors affecting the RE market numbers:
First, many of the transactions - sales & mtg apps
were moved forward to be able to use the Buyers Tax Credit.

Second, many CALs sale  transactions were delayed...
in order for them to use the new CAL tax credits.

Those dislocations will impact these numbers for a few months.
What ever is normal will not be normal until then.

----------
If the Reuters chart is cut off for you..., go to the article to see this years numbers.
------------
U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index Fell 1.5% Last Week
-------
Loan demand to buy US homes sinks to 13-year low

===========

New jobless claims rise unexpectedly + Mortgage rates fall to lowest level of the year


[mEDITate-OR:
not compare the Good News (interest rates down)
with the Bad News (new jobless claims up) again.

What you DO need to see in these two latest charts
is the fact that both show U.S. that for most of 09
both of them declined, substantially.
AND
that for all of 10 so far this year, they are basically FLAT
AND
that last week job losses when up & rate dropped.

What that means is that this is NOT a so-called "V" recovery, that it is NOT yet a "U" recovery, and it might actually be an "L" shaped recovery.

That is NOT very good news.

True, it may not get much worse, might or might not.
But, it also may not get any better..., for months....
or even years....!!!

----------
New jobless claims rise unexpectedly
The largest rise in three months shows precarious labor market
The number of people filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week by the largest amount in three months.
-------------
Mortgage rates fall to lowest level of the year
National average for a 30-year fixed loan is slips slightly to 4.84 percent
Mortgage rates fell to the lowest level of the year this week, as rates fell on U.S. government securities. The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage dipped to 4.84 percent.
===========

MBA Q1 2010: Record 14.69% of Mortgage Loans Delinquent or in Foreclosure

[mEDITate-OR:
be delinquent in understanding how delinquent all of U.S. are...
 
While those in "foreclosure" appear, at first, to be stable...
that does NOT factor in those "in modification", nor those in "short sales" negotiations/sales.
 
What is also significant is that those in 90 delinquencies are getting worse.
while those in short or 30 delinquencies appear to be correcting themselves.
 
What you need to do is look at WHERE the new delinquencies are taking place = Prime loans.
 
The long term delinquent might be underwater sand states home owners.
There no body or entity can figure out how to fix their problem, any time soon.
Those home owners are prime candidates for becoming walk-away - strategic defaults.
 
With the delinquencies shifting from subprime borrower in the sand states
over to Prime Rate borrower all over the country...
we see that the states with the largest rise in delinquencies & foreclosures
are now in places like Washington and Oregon - two of the top four states.
 
In the CoreLogic report we see home prices falling again.
 
In another recent article it was pointed out to U.S. that sellers were cutting prices a lot more.
That was probably caused by the end of the Buyer Tax Credit.
Getting the sale CLOSED prior to the end, so they could get rid of the home.
 
=============
Note: larger charts are available at the CR web blog page
========
by CalculatedRisk on 5/19/2010 11:06:00 AM
On the MBA conference call concerning the "Q1 2010 National Delinquency Survey", MBA Chief Economist Jay Brinkmann said this morning:

  • These are "extraordinary times" and the seasonal adjustment may be incorrect. The 90+ day delinquency bucket is very high and might not be seasonal. If that is backed out, delinquencies are "flat".

  • FHA foreclosure starts up sharply. 

  • "Shadow inventory" of 4.3 million loans that need to worked through (90 day delinquent or in foreclosure) - or they will become REOs or distressed sales.

  • Prime fixed rate is now the key problem!

  • "Sand states" will not be as dominant as the problem moves to prime fixed rate.

  • Still expect some improvement this year for delinquencies, although a little less optimistic than last quarter.



  • =======
    Wednesday, May 19, 2010
    by CalculatedRisk on 5/19/2010 04:01:00 PM


    The second graph shows the delinquency rate by state (red is seriously delinquent: 90+ days or in foreclosure, blue is delinquent less than 90 days).


    This highlights a couple more points that Brinkmann made this morning:
    1) the largest category of delinquent loans are fixed rate prime loans, and
    2) this is not just a "sand state" problem.
    Brinkmann argued the foreclosure crisis is now being driven by economic problems as opposed to the bursting of the housing price bubble - and this is showing up in prime loans and all states. Although Florida and Nevada are very high, notice that the blue bar (new delinquencies) are higher in many other states
    =====

    Can We Grow Our Way Out of Debt?


    [mEDITate-OR:
    not "grow" yourselves out of the RE & economic messes that you, too, are in...

    These are two very good analyses.

    The First article discusses the need for growth, and the lack of savings being a major cause of that.
    What the author explains, wisely too, is that while he DID believe that we could and should grow ourselves out of the economic debts we now carry..., as all good Reagan-ites did and still do think...
    he now is not at all sure that that is still true. And, he explains why he changed his mind.

    His GDP vs Savings chart is very interesting, as you will see below.

    Savings dropped from RonnieR through GHWBush
    then grew during the Clinton years...!
    only to collapse again under W Bush.

    Why there was more savings by U.S. under a Democrat...
    than we saved under an R is very interesting.

    The Second article explains quite well the current RE market quandary that we are in.

    What it does not do, as you will read in my comment to them, is recognize the economic benefits that Govt actions have had, and where we would be had they not.

    What it also does not do is distinguish between the sand states and the rest of U.S.!
    That is essential to fully understand how we got into this mess...
    AND
    how we might be able to get back out of it, too.
    -----------
    JGBHimself
    May 21 06:04 PM

    While that analysis is very convincing, there as an aspect of "growth" that those of U.S. never, ever talk about = "an industrial policy".

    What China did was see what Japan did, and does; and adopted it in spades. Choosing to use what they had the most of - people - they created extremely low cost manufacturing entities. Recently, they changed direction, again. Massive investments in up scale manufacturing programs in order to solve their "export problem". To export more expensive items as opposed to trying to increase low cost items.

    Look at U.S., we produce derivatives, credit default swaps, "securitized RE mortgage packages", any and all kinds of "paper transactions". Why? Bcuz that is what [y]our "industrial policy" promotes. Sadly, one of the most innovative countries creates these better ideas, and then lets other countries make them.

    What China and Japan did was focus on what they could do best, and then run with it, using incentives. We do not. To grow out of this mess we should - morally, economically & politically - create an "industrial policy" for U.S. that does PRECISELY that
    -----------
    Can We Grow Our Way Out of Debt?


    ==========    Article two:
    JGBHimself
    We actually do agree with most of what you reply.
    However, please note we are from WA, now in AZ.
    What we are seeing, as you should too, is: that almost all of the deeply underwater RE is in the sand states of Cal, Nev, Fla & Az; almost all of the bad ARM loans were made in the same states during the "dead years" = 2002 to 7; almost ALL of this last decades "securitized RE packaged loans" were made in the same states by Countrywide [BoA], WAMU [Chase] and Wachovia [Wells] and NOT by FMae, FMac, FHA or VA.
    Being an attorney you too know that it takes two parties to form a contract - those banks/lenders "mal-invested" too. And, they are now paying for it with your & W's TARP money.
    And, as you will note as an attorney there is NOTHING in the new law being passed by the Senate that will, in any way, limit re-starting the same disgusting excesses.
    Believe me, we ARE as concerned as you are, possibly for different reasons, but maybe not.
    But, thanks for the very good article!

    May 21 10:09 PM
    -------
    JGBHimself
    While your analysis is very good, you missed some things.
    First, when you say there is very little holding this RE market up, you forgot to mention that after July, 08 there WAS no RE market. Securitized mortgage packages stopped in Jan 08; in July 08 China stopped buying FMae&FMac securities from U.S. to the tune of US$ 30+ B per month; and F&F had reached their lending limits - all RE lending stopped.
    When W, oddly for a Republican, "nationalized" FMae&FMac and formalized the "govt guarantee" of F&F's securities, AND upped their lending by giving them, what, US$ 1.2 Trillion dollars, RE lending began again.
    But, and it was a big butt, sales did not take off, bcuz lending was much tighter and job losses of 7+or- million people scared U.S.
    So, the O govt "incentivized" home buying, with tax credits. What, pray tell U.S., would it be like now if they had not done that???
    True, and you are right, if not too far (pun?), this is not currently a normal RE market. But, NOTHING about RE was/has been "normal" after July 08
    May 21 06:30 PM
    ----------
    Housing Data: A New 'Bust-Bust' Cycle?
    =======

    Bonds ring economic alarm bells > Treasury yields bounce back > Investor fear is back


    [mEDITate-OR:
    not see what a few hours can do to you, and U.S.

    Earlier today TBill prices rose, and yields dropped, a lot...
    then this afternoon, the reversal took place.

    So, after a week of volatility, where does that leave U.S.
    Who, in Hell, aka Az, knows...

    What we DO know is that RE interest rates dropped last week
    due to the large drop in TBill yields...
    that was good for U.S.

    What this weeks volatility means for next week RE interest rates...
    God only know.

    However, with the decline in RE home prices, the increase in job claims
    keeping the mortgage interest rates LOW
    now becomes even more essential for the economy.

    -----------
    Treasury yields bounce back

    chart_ws_bond_10yearyield.03.png
    http://money.cnn.com/2010/05/21/markets/bondcenter/treasurys/index.htm?postversion=2010052117
    -----------
    Bonds ring economic alarm bells

    chart_ws_bond_10yearyield.03.png
    -----------
    Investor fear is back

    chart_ws_currency_eur_usd.03.png
    chart_ws_index_dow.03.png
    ------
    US Treasury Yields Curve Chart

    ============

    Tuesday, May 18, 2010

    Housing starts hit 1-1/2-year high - drop in building permits to a six-month low

    [mEDITate-OR:
    not start to build..., an accurate view of the Buyer Tax Credit...

    What we see in these articles is that not only do WE - you and U.S.- not know what to expect as the Home Buyer Tax Credit expires, but the RE industry does not either.
    New home inventories drop 2 percent to a record low 482,000 units
    New permits dropped 11.5 percent to a 606,000-unit pace last month
    the lowest level since October 2009
    However, without the two Buyer Tax Credits what we DO know is that there would not have been these sales levels.
    And, along with these sales levels were people out looking for homes.
    THAT was and is badly needed by the RE markets.
    Without customers, without financing..., we - you and U.S. - can NOT sell you current home.
    If you cannot sell, you are forced to stay where you are, or try to rent in a market gulfed by foreclosures and apartments for rent.

    What WILL be we do not know, what we would have "missed" we DO know.

    ------------
    Housing starts hit 1-1/2-year high
    Compared with April last year, starts were up 40.9 percent, the largest increase since March 1994.
    Building permits, which give a sense of future home construction,
    dropped 11.5 percent to a 606,000-unit pace last month
    the lowest level since October 2009. 
    Housing starts in April were lifted by a 10.2 percent rise in groundbreaking for single-family homes to a rate of 593,000 units. This followed a 2.1 percent gain in March.
    Starts in the volatile multifamily segment tumbled 18.6 percent to a 79,000-unit annual pace, partially reversing the prior month's 24.4 percent surge
    Permits lead housing starts by one to two months.
    Last month, building completions increased 19.2 percent to 769,000 units, 
    while the inventory of total houses under construction fell 2 percent to a record low 482,000 units.
    The total number of units authorized but not yet started dropped 5 percent
    =========

    Housing Starts Rise as New Permits Fall

    There were still 15.9% additional new permits than in April 2009, however
    {Buyer Tax Credit] applied to any contracts signed through April 30th.
    As a result, much of the new construction that broke ground might have continued to benefit from the credit, if some of those homes were already spoken for.
    New permits occur at an earlier stage in home building, however.
    Consequently, fewer of those contracts might have been signed by April 30th, so the credit didn't benefit them as much. Builders are also likely just anticipating a decline in demand for new homes now that the credit has expired.
    The drop in permits likely foreshadows what we'll see in home building and sales numbers in May and beyond, without the government credit.
    -------------

    US Home Building Gains, but New Permits Fall

    Permits for single family homes fell by 10.7 percent, to 484,000, from 542,000 in March.

    This is a significant number because it is not affected by seasonality and it gives an indication of future plans. Most of the permits were issued for construction in the South. Single family permits were down in all four regions of the country.

    “The builders overestimated, They thought they would sell more because of the tax credit.”

    multifamily housing construction market, which is part of the commercial real estate market, was being hit hard by high vacancy rates, low rental rates and difficulties getting financing.

    ===========

    Monday, May 17, 2010

    2010's coming stock market crash: 1987 all over again?

    [mEDITate-OR:
    listen to a very good explanation of why the stock market is very overvalued...
    and why you should NOT buy now...
    probably should run for "cover"...!!!

    This analysis uses the work of...
    "the price-to-earnings multiples developed by Yale economist Robert Shiller, who smoothes the erratic swings in profits by calculating PEs based on a 10-year average S&P earnings, adjusted for inflation."

    Please, note, that this is the same Shiller who provides U.S. with one of the best measures of home value changes, each month, year, decade.

    You should, economically, read this whole article, more than once.
    ----------
    2010's coming stock market crash: 1987 all over again
    -----------
    In the fall of 1987, stocks were on a tear. The Shiller PE had doubled to 18.3 in just four-and-a-half years. That's far above the historical average of less than 14 (though pales in comparison to recent giant PE numbers). The dividend yield was also an extremely narrow 2.6%, well below the norm of around 4.5%.
    When the carnage ended, the PE had dropped to 13.3, around its 60-year average, and the dividend yield was approaching 4%

    From early 2008 until March of 2009, stocks suffered a steep decline that echoed the 1987 correction
    During that period, PEs fell from the low 20s to 13.3, precisely their level following the '87 crash. Once again, dividend yields approached 4%

    By early May of this year, the PE had soared back to almost 22, shrinking the dividend yield to 1.8%. In recent days
    Today, the yield is 1.8%. Earnings per share typically grow at a "real" rate of around 1.5%, way below the pace that Wall Street advertises. So the total gain from investing at today's prices is 3.3% or so, plus around 2.5% for inflation, for a total of between 5.5% and 6%.
    For the S&P to return to a PE of around 14, the index would need to drop by around 33% to less than 800

    Now let's look out a decade or two. The evidence is extremely strong that price matters, and matters a lot: except in rare cases, buying stocks when they are pricey -- when the Shiller PE exceeds 20 -- leads to puny returns ten years later.

    ===========

    Real estate's new problem: Not enough homes + Steamy Hot Phoenix Housing Market

    [mEDITate-OR:
    see that this is NOT a free, open, competitive RE market...

    From there being not funding from anyone, not even FMaeORFMac in July 08...
    to a total collapse of home prices in the Sand States...

    to now, where everybody is holding back...
    banks are not lending to U.S., banks/lenders are holding back foreclosed homes off the market...
    and a flood of home owners who WANT to sell, but cannot due to price declines and no jumbo RE loans.
    thousands of "investor" purchased foreclosed home now being rented, in competition with apartments..

    This is a dislocated RE market.
    Giving a whole new meaning to.... "location, location, location"...!!!
    ---------
    Real estate's new problem: Not enough homes

    This so-called "shadow inventory" comes from two main sources: properties lenders have not yet repossessed or have not yet put back on the market; and homeowners who want to sell but who have refrained because of low prices.
    Lenders are also holding back on foreclosing at all, either because they're having trouble handling the volume of repossessions or because they want to sell off some of the inventory they already have.
    "Notices of default are filed, but they're not taking the properties back,

    there's a big pool of homeowners who have wanted to sell their homes during the past three years but market conditions either prevented sales or kept them from trying. The company estimates that 8% of homeowners are very likely to try to sell their homes in the next twelve months if they see signs of improvement in their local markets.
    "These sidelined sellers closely watch the market for signs of a possible turnaround and rush in if there's a hint of good news,"

    ---------
    Housing market diagnosis: Bipolar

    On one hand, sales and prices are rising, indicating recovery.
    On the other hand, so are interest rates and repossessions, which most certainly do not.
    And then there are the millions of foreclosures that need to be sold but haven't yet been listed -- so-called shadow inventory -- that could derail a real recovery if they hit the market in floods.
    The prognosis? Negative short term but turning positive by the end of 2010.

    there are some strong negatives dragging on the market:
    1. Interest rates have been intermittently creeping up. Although nobody expects 6% until at least 2011, the days of 4.5% mortgages are behind us.
    2. Bank repossessions are on track to surpass a million homes in 2010. But at least foreclosure filings fell in April, the first time since RealtyTrac began reporting.
    3. More than a quarter of borrowers are "underwater," meaning they owe more than their homes are worth.
    4. "Strategic defaults" -- where underwater homeowners walkway even when they can still afford to pay -- accounted for 31% of all foreclosures in March, according to a recent study.

    But there is one factor that has experts really scared:


    homes that are ready to be sold but haven't been put on the market.


    Right now, there could be more than 4.5 million homes in "shadow inventory,"


    But now, with home prices so low and so many foreclosures on the market, both homeowners and banks have been waiting to put properties on the market.


    "These sidelined sellers closely watch the market for signs of a possible turnaround and rush in if there's a hint of good news,"


    But as more sellers put their homes up for sale, supplies increase, which will depress prices again. Rinse and repeat ad infinitum.


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    Phoenix inventory levels by price

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