Saturday, October 16, 2010

Trade Deficit Trouble = Understanding Trade Balances and Continued Urgency of Global Coordination

[mEDITate-OR:
not understand "The Deal" that W, Clinton and GHWB made with China...

Very few of U.S. were aware of what we were doing, or why, at the time. But GHWBush cut a deal with the Chinese - we would buy from them a lot of cheap goods so they could create jobs for their huge population. And, China began contributing to Presidential elections, for U.S.

It was a stroke of genius. Bcuz, with trade the world inside China was turned upside down. From narrow minded Communists, they became narrow minded Capitalists.

When Walmart and William Jefferson saw that, he knew how HE could get the money from China to become President. So, he expanded our Walmart and China involvement. And, they gave him a lot of money.

When W became Pres he re-hired many of his dad's old fiends, and in exchange for HIS campaign contributions, he continued to expand Walmart and China.

As the 1st two chart show U.S. that trade has enabled China to grow exponentially.
However, sadly for U.S., we have not grown much at all.

And, THAT is what all the shouting is all about.

However, one MUST ask, must one not, is THIS the time to cut off China, and its subsidization of our economy? What would happen to U.S. if China were to not only stop buying US TBills, but started to sell them?

Economic Chaos.

Do you even remember July 08 when China told U.S. they would stop buying FMae&FMac bonds...?
The total collapse of what remained of the RE financing system. The "Nationalization" by W of both FMae&FMac.

Be VERY careful what you ask for..., you might get something terribly different.
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ppppsss:
The last chart is CR's trade chart showing U.S. the impacts of our thirst for oil.
To the best of my knowledge tis the only one that does that for U.S.
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Understanding Trade Balances and Continued Urgency of Global Coordination
http://seekingalpha.com/article/230288-understanding-trade-balances-and-continued-urgency-of-global-coordination
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Trade Deficit Trouble
http://seekingalpha.com/article/230104-trade-deficit-trouble?source=article_sb_picks
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RealtyTrac: AZ second again in 3Q foreclosures = Bank Repossessions and Scheduled Auctions Set Quarterly Records While New Defaults Continue to Decline


[mEDITate-OR:
not see that this was then, and it tis not now...

The huge overhang of underwater properties, along with the huge numbers of bad, Alt-A, neg ARMS and subprime RE loans in the sand states, makes this a really ugly map of U.S.

The sad thing is that NOTHING was being done about it.
Until a few Robo-signers got caught, not looking...
What is really sad for the Big lenders/servicer/banks is that when we DID look we found them buying forged docs to try to show courts that they had a "good title" right to foreclose.

So, the ones who WROTE all those bad RE loans are now stuck with them - literally & figuratively.

How sad, how glad, we all can be.

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Nevada, Arizona, Florida post top state foreclosure rates in third quarter
As it has for the past 15 quarters, Nevada continued to document the nation’s highest state foreclosure rate in the third quarter of 2010 despite a year-over-year decline in foreclosure activity. One in every 29 Nevada housing units received a foreclosure filing during the quarter, almost five times the national average. Nevada foreclosure activity increased nearly 1 percent from the previous quarter but was down nearly 20 percent from the third quarter of 2009.
Arizona posted the nation’s second highest state foreclosure rate for the fifth consecutive quarter, with one in every 55 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing
Florida posted the nation’s third highest state foreclosure rate for the fourth consecutive quarter, with one in every 56 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing.
With one in every 70 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing during the third quarter, California documented the nation’s fourth highest foreclosure rate
followed by Idaho, with one in every 86 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing during the quarter. A total of 7,424 Idaho housing units received a foreclosure filing during the quarter, an increase of nearly 20 percent from the previous quarter and an increase of nearly 14 percent from the third quarter of 2009.
Other states with foreclosure rates ranking among the top 10 in the third quarter were Utah, Georgia, Michigan, Illinois and Hawaii.
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U.S. Foreclosure Market Data for Top 10 States – Q3 2010
Properties with Foreclosure Filings
Rate RankState NameNODLISNTSNFSREOTotal1/every X HU (rate)%Change from Q2 10%Change from Q3 09
--
U.S.
116,349
153,298
243,869
128,576
288,345
930,437
139
3.90
-0.79
1
Nevada
16,845
0
11,234
0
10,350
38,429
29
0.92
-19.81
2
Arizona
36
0
30,743
0
18,324
49,103
55
7.65
-2.46
3
Florida
0
61,745
0
59,240
36,041
157,026
56
12.41
0.06
4
California
80,886
0
63,448
0
46,682
191,016
70
-0.73
-23.61
5
Idaho
2,019
0
3,538
0
1,867
7,424
86
19.74
13.67
6
Utah
3,285
0
3,718
0
3,700
10,703
88
11.91
12.04
7
Georgia
0
0
25,592
0
15,639
41,231
98
8.3
23.5
8
Michigan
10,943
0
16,755
0
18,402
46,100
98
1.43
24.51
9
Illinois
0
21,932
0
12,230
13,640
47,802
110
4.9
28.26
10
Hawaii
186
0
2,504
0
1,370
4,060
126
18.13
48.01

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RealtyTrac: AZ second again in 3Q foreclosures
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Oregon foreclosure activity up 20.43 percent
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Washington foreclosures continue to soar
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Foreclosure Activity Increases 4 Percent in Third Quarter
Bank Repossessions and Scheduled Auctions Set Quarterly Records While New Defaults Continue to Decline
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U.S. Posts Second-Largest Annual Budget Deficit on Record = Tops US$ 1 Trillion.

[mEDITate-OR:
not see the HUGE difference between when W was Pres - in budget 08
and then when Obama became Pres in Jan 09

If you compare 07 and 08 you, too, will see that revenues were declining AND expenditures were rising for W exit strategy.

When you look at 09 you should remember that with declining revenues everywhere - Fed Govt and the state & local govts - we expanded our unemployment benefits and Medicare/Medicaid coverage. Oh, and food stamps too.

With the sole exception of when W took over a surplus budget from William Jefferson, W never once had a balanced budget and ran a large deficit every year he was in office. And, when he left office in Jan 09, he left U.S. with a jobless and budgetary mess.

But, of course, tis all Obama's fault.
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Monthly Budget Review
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chart_annual_deficits3.top.gif
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File:CBO Forecast Changes for 2009-2012.png
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File:2010 Receipts & Expenditures Estimates.PNG

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Deficit tops $1 trillion second year in a row
http://money.cnn.com/2010/10/15/news/economy/treasury_fy2010_deficit/index.htm
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U.S. Posts Second-Largest Annual Budget Deficit on Record
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-15/u-s-posts-second-straight-annual-budget-deficit-in-excess-of-1-trillion.html
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Banks seize 288K homes in Q3, but challenges await + September home foreclosures top 100,000 for first time

[mEDITate-OR:
not see the humour in this foreclosure mess...

Why use "robo signers"...?
bcuz they would NOT look at the docs, and see that they were forged.
So..., RUSH to Judgment..., do not pass inspection..., and then SELL asap...!!!

Venal.
Ugly.
Illegal.
actually wrong - morally, legally and now, !!!, economically.

Bath..., is not just a city in England.
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bank repos 2010-09 v3.png

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foreclosure cht1 2010-09.png
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foreclosure cht2 2010-09.png

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Banks seize 288K homes in Q3, but challenges await
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101014/ap_on_bi_ge/us_foreclosure_rates
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September home foreclosures top 100,000 for first time
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/10/home-seizures-exceeded-100-000-in-september/64568/
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http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20101014/bs_nm/us_usa_housing_foreclosures_4
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U.S.-Canada trade deficit grows wider + CAN Trade deficit cut by almost half = Is the U.S. 'debasing' its dollar, hurting other nations?

[mEDITate-OR:
not see what others see about U.S...
and in many ways it is not pretty.

Canada is very dependent upon U.S. - like sleeping next to an elephant.
They do not see U.S. as we do, nor as we would like to think they do.

Read the last Globe & Mail article, please.
Now, you, too, see it, don't you.
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Exports to the United States rose 2.7 per cent, led by higher exports of passenger autos, while imports fell by 3.3. Canada's trade surplus with the United States increased to $2.9-billion in August from $1.5-billion in July – its first increase since December 2009.
Exports to countries other than the United States grew 4.2 per cent, while imports rose 4.5. Both gains were largely due to increases in trade with the European Union.
Canada's trade deficit with countries other than the United States rose to $4.3-billion in August from $4.1-billion in July.
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These were the eight countries with the largest trade imbalances over the United States in August:
China, $28.04 billion
Mexico, $6.04 billion
Japan, $5.83 billion
Germany, $3.43 billion
Nigeria, $2.67 billion
Ireland, $2.49 billion
Venezuela, $2.20 billion
Canada, $2.19 billion
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USDCAD-101310.jpg
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Canadian trade, August
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U.S.-Canada trade deficit grows wider
http://www.bizjournals.com/dayton/stories/2010/10/11/daily38.html
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CAN Trade deficit cut by almost half
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/trade-deficit-cut-by-almost-half/article1756588/
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Is the U.S. 'debasing' its dollar, hurting other nations?
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/is-the-us-debasing-its-dollar-hurting-other-nations/article1756871/
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