Nearly 1 in 5 older women are going childless + More women wait to start families + but racial gaps narrowing

[mEDITate-OR:

ignore the fact that USA Today makes this significant.

This, too, is a red state vs a blue state issue, for women, and for men.

As for the impact on society, attitudes are more mixed. About half the public -- 46% in a 2009 Pew Research Center poll -- say it makes no difference one way or the other that a growing share of women do not ever have children. Still, a notable share of Americans -- 38% in that 2009 survey -- say this trend is bad for society, an increase from 29% in a 2007 Pew Research survey.

------------

While the social implications of this may be more obvious
the economic ones should also be.

While immigrants are accused of taking jobs American don't want...
women are taking jobs that they DO want. A lot more of them.

That is a massive economic shift in income, power and accepted roles.

Today, the ViceP said we will never get the lost 7-8 million jobs back.
Well, he is a man...
and men may not ever get their jobs back...

from the women who stole them.

=============

Nearly 1 in 5 older women are going childless

http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/2010-06-25-1Achildless25_ST_N.htm

=============

More women wait to start families

http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/2009-08-12-latebirths12_N.htm

===========

US childlessness is up, but racial gaps narrowing

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100625/ap_on_go_ot/us_census_childbearing_2

=============

Childlessness Up Among All Women; Down Among Women with Advanced Degrees

[mEDITate-OR:

misunderstand what this means..., to them..., and to U.S...

During WW2 there was a massive shift in women's employment, for the obvious reason - men were fighting in the war.

After the war, women went back to raising children and men went back to work.

Every year since the mid 70's there has been a shift back, again.

Women ARE in colleges, in law & medical schools..., employed and employers.

They there was "delay..., and deny".  Wait..., wait some more, and then forget-about-it.

Minor digression:

When we were in the US Army in New Mexico we SAW something. Young girls deciding to not get fat.

Was it Farrah...??? Or, merely TV...???

Bcuz our TV "view" of "families" changed, and our view of attractive women changed...

high school girls and young women were deciding to be thiner.

What we now see is "Irish Behan Law" in action..., women ARE now equal, or more so.

Less children, having them later...

and now deliberately having them at mid-life..., or not at all.

Childlessness Up Among All Women;

Down Among Women with Advanced Degrees

http://pewsocialtrends.org/pubs/758/rising-share-women-have-no-children-childlessness-

===============

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decline, Still High

[mEDITate-OR;
get lost trying to find The Charts...
or

not see The End is Near..., or not...

or 

see that VERY little progress is being made...

We are simply bumping along..., with an "L" shaped jobs mess.

=============

Thursday, June 24, 2010

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decline, Still High

by CalculatedRisk on 6/24/2010 08:30:00 AM

--------

Economy is improving, but jobs a sore spot

Stubbornly high level of jobless claims is a sign hiring remains weak 

Businesses spent more on big-ticket goods in May and the pace of layoffs slowed in the past week, the latest evidence that the economy is gradually improving.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37893814/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/from/ET

---------

===============

Jobless aid measure dying in Senate
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100624/ap_on_bi_ge/us_congress_spending
=========

US 30-yr mortgage rate drops to 39-year low

[mEDITate-OR:

----------

==========

Mortgage rates sink to lowest level on record

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100624/ap_on_bi_ge/us_mortgage_rates

=========

FED balance sheet - July 08 effects

[mEDITate-OR:
not SEE that almost the total increase in Fed funds was tied, down?, by the "investment" that was made in FMae&FMac securities...

July 08, China stopped buying FMae&FMac securities.
Aug 08 W "nationalized" FMae&FMac
Sept 08 the FED announced they would buy US 1.5 Trillion in FMae &FMac securities....
using the same funds that China had shifted over to TBills.

Now, look at the chart.

============
Fed: U.S. recovery hurt by overseas woes

http://money.cnn.com/2010/06/23/news/economy/fed_decision/
=============

US consumers are cutting debt via default not thrift

[mEDITate-OR:
not wonder why FinFacts talks about everyone else by themselves...
we mean really, are they broke..?

So..., explain to U.S. why Germany and France - yes France - are not digging themselves deeper in debt?

What IS important, however, is the argument that we - you and U.S. - have eliminated much more of our debts by eliminating [y]our mortgage debts.

What that is saying another way is that we all have been doing a a "strategic default" on our homes.
Some of U.S. still carry it on our books...
...delay and pretend...?
Some of U.S. have written it off.
Are we ALL acting like "bankers", now?
==========
US consumers are cutting debt via default not thrift

The Federal Reserve reported last week in its flow of funds statement that US household debt contracted at an annual rate of 2½% in the first quarter, the seventh consecutive quarter of decline. Home mortgage debt fell at an annual rate of 3¾%, a significantly faster decline than in the fourth quarter, while consumer credit contracted at an annual rate of 1½%.
since household debt hit its peak in early 2008, banks have charged off a total of about $210bn in mortgage and consumer loans, including credit cards. If one assumes that investors suffered at least that much in losses on similar loans that banks packaged and sold as securities (a very conservative assumption), then the total  -- that is, the amount of debt consumers shed through defaults - - comes to much more than $400 billion.
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1019909.shtml
========

US foreign trade deficit rises to $109.0bn in first quarter of 2010 + increased slightly in April 2010 to $40.3bn

[mEDITate-OR:

This 1st chart from FinFacts is the ONLY one like it that we have seen.
What it shows U.S. is that we have very different trade balances.
We have surpluses for "income" and "services".
But, they are more than offset by deficits for "goods".

What this chart does not do however, that Calculated Risk does do for U.S., is separate fuel/oil out of the mix. For example, we buy around US$ 4 Billion a month from Canada, and around US$ 3 Billion a month from Mexico and Venezuela.

So, while we talk, a lot, about China...
we do NOT talk about the "price" to U.S. of fuel oil.
-------------

US current-account deficit rises

to $109.0bn in first quarter of 2010

http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/International_4/article_1019950_printer.shtml

==========

US monthly international trade deficit

increased slightly in April 2010 to $40.3bn

http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1019894.shtml
==========

US housing market may take years to recover: Total homeowner equity has plunged to its lowest level since 1985

[mEDITate-OR:

try to explain why FinFacts from Ireland provides U.S. with better economic reports...

{some may suggest that reporting on their own economy is simply to dismal...}

However, for whatever the reason FinFacts is on a par with Bloomberg.

So, enjoy the charts, and if you're a mind to it, go read the Irish version of The Economic Truth !!

==========

US housing market may take years to recover;

Total homeowner equity has plunged to its lowest level since 1985

http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1019919.shtml
==========

US sales of new single-family houses plunged

to lowest level since at least 1963 in May 2010

after the end of a government tax credit

http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1019990.shtml

===========

US housing starts plunged in May

http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1019941.shtml
=========

Mortgage performance vs cure rates

[mEDITate-OR:
not try to click on this chart to change its size.

Where the date came from is of interest, true.
But, accepting that it is accurate...
LOOK at where we are now.

30 days late maybe 30% of U.S. will be able to cure..
90 days late and NO body can cure.

That is really, REALLY ugly.

=========

========

Please note, this in only ONE of Michael's charts.

Go there, and see for yourself.

-----------
Key Property Charts
to Make Sense of This Week’s Housing Numbers
June 22, 2010
http://seekingalpha.com/article/211257-key-property-charts-to-make-sense-of-this-weeks-housing-numbers?source=email
========

Commercial Cataclysm?: Moody’s / REAL Commercial Property Price Index

[mEDITate-OR:
not add up a plus 22.29 and a minus 29.57
and see a 51.86% drop from peak to valley.

Wow.

And, we - you and U.S. - thought our home losses were ugly!
------------
Commercial Cataclysm?:
Moody’s / REAL Commercial Property Price Index
April 2010

The latest release of the Moody’s/ REAL Commercial Property Indexshowed a notable monthly gain of 1.7% since March, suggesting that the nation’s commercial property markets are continuing to clear in the wake of a tremendous downturn that has seen prices down some 41.05% since the peak set in October 2007.

Click to enlarge

http://seekingalpha.com/article/211317-commercial-cataclysm-moodys-real-commercial-property-price-index-april-2010?source=email

=========

[mEDITate-OR:
not wonder about this chart...

Ugly Chart of the Day: Lumber As Housing Proxy

What is the best proxy for demand in the housing market?

How about lumber.

Here is one ugly chart, courtesy of finviz.com

(with trend lines added by the author):
For large graphic without added trend lines, click here:


Random length lumber started a down trend in 2004, well in advance of the top of the housing bubble. When a break out from the four year channel finally came in late 2009, it sure looked promising as a leading indicator for an upturn in housing. The sharp decline in the last two months, steeper than anything since 2004, brings the break out into question.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/211377-ugly-chart-of-the-day-lumber-as-housing-proxy?source=email

=========

New Home Sales collapse to Record Low in May + Mortgage Purchase Applications Decrease

[mEDITate-OR:

watch déjà vu all over again....

Existing sales, and now new home sales, collapse.

WOW.

They @ Calculated Risk told U.S. that it would BE bad.

But, nobody thought it would actually be THIS bad.
----------
Please, go to Calculated Risk.
a - to read Jim's comments
and
b - to click on the charts to see them @ large.
---------

New Home Sales collapse to Record Low in May

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/06/new-home-sales-collapse-to-record-low.html

--------
The first graph shows monthly new home sales
(NSA - Not Seasonally Adjusted)

-----------
And another long term graph - this one for New Home Months of Supply.

---------
The final graph shows new home inventory.

===============

MBA: Mortgage Purchase Applications Decrease in Weekly Survey

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/06/mba-mortgage-purchase-applications_23.html

-----

This graph shows the MBA Purchase Index and four week moving average since 1990.

============

Existing Home Sales decline in May + Inventory increases Year-over-Year + Months of Supply and House Prices

[mEDITate-OR:

not be stunned, once again, by CR's exceptional charts...

Even while we were not stunned by the decline in existing home sales.

These charts are so good, and self descriptive, you need to see them for yourself.

So..., don't forget to don't go there.

--------

Please, go to Calculated Risk.

a - to read Jim's comments

and

b - to click on the charts to see them @ large.

=============

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Existing Home Sales decline in May

The 1st graph shows NSA monthly existing home sales for 2005 through 2010
(see Red columns for 2010).

------------

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

---------

The 3rd graph shows the 'months of supply' metric.

-----------

The 4th graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Inventory is not seasonally adjusted, so it really helps to look at the YoY change.

--------

This graph show months of supply and the annualized change in the Case-Shiller Composite 20 house price index (inverted).

Below 6 months of supply (blue line) house prices are typically rising (red line, inverted).

===========

Is the Fed out of bullets? Get out the knives, Tonto

[mEDITate-OR:

find that expanding the money supply is not as easy as it used to be..

The problem is that "The Banks" are not actually "banks" anymore, so that FED policy of controlling retail lending interest rates with the discount rate does not work anymore. When the FED lowered to the current rate, they assumed that the Banks would begin to lend - they did not.

What they did do was take the cheap money and "invested" it in their investment banking system. That is where the profit were before, and that is where they had find more profits now - to "cover" (up?) their RE lending losses.

Any self respecting monetarist, if there are any left (or is that on the Far Right), should be turning over in their graves. Their economic system is now broke (as in technically BK), broken (and Congress is not going to fix it) and unable to do what they assumed that it still could do.

How sad, how bad.

------------

Eyes on the Fed

Is the Fed out of bullets?

http://money.cnn.com/2010/06/21/news/economy/what_can_fed_do/index.htm

============
Dr. Peter Morici:
The Fed, the yuan and the failure of diplomacy
Simply, Fed policy is much less relevant to US growth and price stability than in the days of Paul Volcker, because China’s yuan policy has substantially limited the importance of Fed interest rate decisions by severing the historic link between short interest rates—like the federal funds rate it targets—and long rates on mortgages, corporate bonds, and the securities banks use to finance lending on cars and credit cards. Through the boom years of the last decade, Beijing printed yuan to purchase hundreds of billions of dollars in foreign exchange markets. That made the yuan and Chinese products on US store shelves artificially cheap, and imports from China, coupled with higher prices for imported oil, pushed the US trade deficit to more than five percent of GDP from 2004 to 2008
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1019971.shtml
============

New home sales plummet to record low

[mEDITate-OR:

not see how really far down there we are...

This shows U.S. "The Bubble"...!!!

Wow.

--------------

Said they:

"Housing data in May have been dismal.

Housing starts fell 10%, building permits fell 5.9%, mortgage applications dropped, and the home builders' index fell by five points.

The only bright spot was mortgage rates, which stayed very low."

--------------
The 2nd article is the very good Bloomberg coverage. A must read.
============

New home sales plummet to record low

http://money.cnn.com/2010/06/23/real_estate/new_home_sales/

-----------

Sales of U.S. New Homes Plunged to Record Low in May

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-06-23/sales-of-u-s-new-homes-plunged-to-record-low-in-may.html

===========

Sales of new homes in May hit record low = 33 percent decline

[mEDITate-OR:

not see that this is really skewed data.

 

Last month there was a tremendous rush to buy before the expiration of the Buyers Tax Credit.

 

This month there is not the rush.

 

However, what you DO need to know is that home listing prices are now dropping precipitously.

And, many are taking their home off the market.

 

Those that needed to sell, were very lucky if the did sell.

Those that needed to sell and did not, are in a world of hurt.

Hence the drop in listing/asking prices.

Those that did not need to sell, but were testing the market, went back home.

Where they will stay for quite a while.

 

In fact, those buying now are paying a lower effective price than those who bought under the Tax Credit.

NOW, may actually BE the time to buy.

However, as the 2nd article point out to U.S. - we probably can't.

---------

Sales of new homes in May hit record low

End of homebuyer tax credit contributes to 33 percent decline

Sales of new homes collapsed in May, sinking 33 percent to the lowest level on record as potential buyers stopped shopping for homes once they could no longer receive government tax credits.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37867779/ns/business-real_estate/from/ET

-----------

Tighter standards slow housing market

Borrowers plow through piles of paperwork, endure lengthy scrutiny

Even for successful buyers with sterling credit, getting a mortgage these days can be an enormous ordeal, especially compared to the easy-money days of just a few years ago.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37831562/ns/business-real_estate/from/ET

============

Greater Phoenix Single Family Home Inventory Levels And Absorption Rates By Price Range

[mEDITate-OR:
not see the Shiites running down hill..., all around you...

While this is a rather stunning chart...
it tells U.S. that very low priced homes have been gobbled up by owners and investors.
Bcuz, we have gone from an after "foreclosure" REO type RE market to a "bid for it on the courthouse steps, before anybody else see it" foreclosure market.

Nevertheless, this is showing all of U.S. that Jumbo loan RE homes are NOT selling very fast, if at all; and that the big price declines for them are still incoming.

This will be a very hard, long year.
-----------

============
Greater Phoenix Single Family Home Inventory Levels And Absorption Rates By Price Range
It takes anywhere from 45 days to 3 years to sell property in Metro Phoenix.
http://www.phoenixmarkettrends.com/public/
===========

Accelerating Jumbo Mortgage Delinquencies Will Hurt High-End Property Values - Part 1 & 2

[mEDITate-OR:

wonder why the lack of new Jumbo mtgs funding has not shown up in a drop in prices...

These two parts of a six part series - rest incoming - provide a VERY interesting view.

The 1st chart shows U.S. that the price of all foreclosed home is going up.

The 2nd chart shows U.S. that the later the Jumbo loan was made the worse the defaults were.

The 3rd chart shows U.S. that the first wave of foreclosures, in 2008, was more from "securitized" RE loan packages and the second wave which is now beginning is more from both non-agency and GREs. Barkleys is ONLY securitized loans, where RealtyTrac and Lawler include both.

One reason for the 1st chart rise, might be that the massive increase in UI filings occurred in Sept-Oct of 08, and those who have lost jobs covered by UI tend to have less "reserves" to fall back on, and therefore lose their homes earlier. It might also be explained by the fact that the "sand states" were the most expensive and over valued RE markets, so that when they collapsed the prices of the home were much higher than normal.

One reason for the 2nd charts shift in default rates is that the closer we got to the peak before the collapse the more over valued, and now underwater, the Jumbo RE loans were. Also, with the total collapse of Jumbo funding, those who had just purchased COULD not sell their homes unless they could hold their own paper OR find an all cash buyer. The later, could find the exact same home, now for sale a 50% less. So, why would they buy an existing Jumbo priced home as the same price.

One reason for the 3rd charts shift might be that investment buyers were very interested in scooping up inexpensive homes, to rent and later resell. However, investment buyers had little or NO reason to buy one or two expensive homes when they could buy a lot of cheap ones. Now, however, the owners of Jumbo loan homes are trapped. They can't sell, and they can't recover, and they can't hold on much longer. Sad, very sad.

-------------

-----------------

-----------

-----------

Accelerating Jumbo Mortgage Delinquencies Will Hurt High-End Property Values: Part 1

http://seekingalpha.com/article/210247-accelerating-jumbo-mortgage-delinquencies-will-hurt-high-end-property-values-part-1

--------

Accelerating Jumbo Mortgage Delinquencies Will Hurt High-End Property Values: Part 2

http://seekingalpha.com/article/211052-accelerating-jumbo-mortgage-delinquencies-will-hurt-high-end-property-values-part-2

=============

Purchases of U.S. Existing Homes Unexpectedly Fall + Mortgage Delays Blamed

[mEDITate-OR:

not look twice at these new numbers...

What we are seeing is, of course, the bump from the Buyers Tax Credit

there was also a large bump in construction jobs to get the homes built fast enough to meet the deadlines.

However, the large drop in mtg apps suggests that a large drop in sales is incoming.

But, not until the month after the next one.

Bcuz of the large increase last month, many, too?, thought that we would have another.

The problem was that many, wisely?, did not think there would be a deadline extension, nor that the Buyers Tax Credit would be re-created..., so they bought early enough to meet the deadline.

So..., what we will probably see is another slight decline next month..., and then "Niagara Falls".

Once again the NYT chart is slightly different than the AP chart (see other post), and the two charts from NAR provided by Daniel in The Atlantic show U.S. a third view.

The 2nd chart from NAR shows U.S. the "listings", however that chart has some questions. First, does it include new construction listings?  Second, is the decline in listing shown, the result of sales OR is it the withdrawal of many listings by those who wanted to try to sell, but now, finding that they didn't, will try to hold on/back a while longer.

Also note, the NYT and other "sales price" info is suspect, too.

First, there were many reports that there was a large drop in listing prices or discounts, by those just BEFORE the expiration of the Buyers Tax Credit - sellers trying to get their home sold!!!. Second, we are now being told that there are even larger discounts being given/offered AFTER the deadline, by those who still NEED to sell, but were unable to do so with the benefit of the credit.

That suggests that the next months report might/should show U.S. a decline in home prices.

We will see what we will see.

===========

Mortgage Delays Blamed for Decline in Home Sales

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/23/business/economy/23econ.html

----------------

Purchases of U.S. Existing Homes Unexpectedly Fall

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-06-22/purchases-of-u-s-existing-homes-unexpectedly-fall-update2-.html

------------

Big Drop in May's Existing Home Sales Avoided by Lingering Credit

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/06/big-drop-in-mays-existing-home-sales-avoided-by-lingering-credit/58514/

=============

May home sales unexpectedly fall 2.2 percent

[mEDITate-OR:

not see that Jim @ Calculated Risk was correct...

Predictions are normally what you paid for them.

However, sometimes they are correct.

What Jim @ CR has been telling U.S. was that today's numbers would probably be lower than most were predicting. And, the AP chart & story tell U.S. he was right.

Tomorrow, we will see "new home sales"

deja vu all over again.

----------

May home sales unexpectedly fall 2.2 percent

Boost from government incentives appears to be winding down

Sales of previously occupied homes dipped 2.2 percent in May, signaling that a boost from home-buying tax credits is fading sooner than expected.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37844518/ns/business-real_estate/from/ET

---------

America’s money is moving to Florida, Texas

Forbes analysis of IRS data shows that the rich like warm tax havens

Surprise: America's wealthy like warm weather and low taxes.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37758182/ns/business-forbescom/from/ET

 

Forbes.com slideshow: Where America’s money is moving
=========