2010 year end charts = TBill 10yr yield + DOW + NASDQ + EURO + CADUSD +

[mEDITate-OR:

miss the connections, and disconnection, between housing and other charts

While you might assume that the 10yr TBill, which determines mortgage rates for U.S., controls the sales of new & existing homes, and pending sales & starts...

you would be wrong, this year.

And, if you compare these stock & dollar charts with the CRs chart in the next blog posting, you will see that there is little comparison. In spite of Wall Street telling U.S. that their prices are driven by the economy. Not jobs and not housing. Nada, nyet, zed, zero.

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What is also very interesting is the rise & the fall & the rise & the fall of the EURO vs the US dollar...

and of course China, being pegged to U.S., and both their largest trading partners.

What you REALLY need to see is the relationship between U.S. - and China & the EURO

with stable solid financial countries = Australia & Canada.

Look at the last two (2) years !!

While we tried to drive down the price of our dollar to produce more exports, we did. Against "stronger" currencies/countries.
Canada down 30 cents per US$, Australia down 50 cents per!
But, there is NO evidence of that in our exports.

Not to them, nor the rest of the world.

What's up with that?

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US TBills 10yr
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Dow, Nasdaq & S&P 500
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Crude Oil Prices + Gas prices 4 U.S.
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CADUS - 1 year, 2 years
US$ vs EURO - 1 yr, 5 yr & last week
U.S. vs Australia - 1-2 years
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---------------      US$ vs EURO - 1 yr, 5 yr & last week

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===========  U.S. vs Australia

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CR = What about those Option ARMs?

[mEDITate-OR:
not see what is not there...

We have been saying for over a year that the 2nd wave of bad ARMs & subprime loans does NOT take into consideration the fact that over 85% + of them have already been or are in foreclosure or BK. These bad sand state RE loans are GONE, already!
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First, many of the loans have already defaulted. There is a difference between the original recast date, and the actual recast date - because negatively amortizing loans hit the recast ceiling earlier than the original forecast - and those loans have already defaulted (or have been modified). 
Second, some of these loans were modified (Option ARMs and Alt-A loans were targeted by the banks for internal modification programs), and some of these borrowers have probably refinanced - the few that had some equity.
Third. But what these graphs don't show is a huge spike in Option ARM and Alt-A loans delinquent or in the foreclosure process. Although there will probably be more delinquent Option ARM and Alt-A loans next year, I'm more concerned about falling house prices and negative equity than a huge wave of Option ARM and Alt-A defaults.
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CR = What about those Option ARMs?
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/01/what-about-those-option-arms.html
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Problem Banks: Stress by State + Unofficial Problem Bank list increases to 935 Institutions

[mEDITate-OR:

absolutely KNOW that "Go West Young Man" did NOT mean this...!!!

Of the top 10 most stressed out banks by state, eight (8) are on the West Coast.

All seven states West of the Rockies are listed. Every single one of U.S.

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When ranking markets with a minimum of 15 institutions at year-end 2007, Arizona has experienced the most stress with 45.6 percent of its institutions having failed or being identified as a problem. Washington is a close second at 45.4 percent. The other stressed banking states that rank in the top ten include Nevada (43 percent), Oregon (40 percent), Florida (37 percent), Georgia (34 percent), California (34 percent), Utah (32 percent), Idaho (26 percent), and Colorado (25 percent). 

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The Unofficial Problem Bank List did NOT reach 1,000.

Obviously, we should have tried harder.

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Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Dec 31, 2010.

http://calculatedriskimages.blogspot.com/2010/12/unofficial-problem-bank-list-dec-31.html

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Problem Banks: Stress by State

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/12/problem-banks-stress-by-state.html

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Unofficial Problem Bank list increases to 935 Institutions

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/12/unofficial-problem-bank-list-increases_31.html

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A few for Graphs for 2010

[mEDITate-OR:
realize that you can not do better than these...!!!

Do NOT take my Bar-tender-ass' admonition...
go to CR and read this article, and view the charts.

"We thank you, and Leslies will thank you."
http://www.allelementsdesign.com/schilling/company/salt/leslie.html
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A few for Graphs for 2010
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/12/few-for-graphs-for-2010.html
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