By the numbers: The Valley housing market, city by city + Glut of Valley rental homes results in lower prices, lease concession

[mEDITate-OR:

not see more of the shifts that are taking place..., in AZ...

Said AZBJ:

The snapshots here from the Valley’s 10 largest cities show disturbing similarities in their 2000 and 2009 numbers. It’s almost like the years in between never happened, because in many cases, any appreciation in home values was erased.

While there are many changes, the descriptions of them may not be accurate. For example, while one article below says that AZ is in the mid-range for "affordability", what they do not mention is how out of round prices were in the sand states like AZ.

However, what CoreLogic shows U.S. is that in AZ we are now back in a double dip.

And, with all the investor owned foreclosures being rented, the home RE rental market is in deep trouble.

What is not mentioned is the huge number of condos that are also on the market, as rentals.

In another article, just below on the blog, we see that there is a NEW flood of low priced foreclosed homes that will drive not only sales prices down but also home rentals. Which will drive down multi-unit condo & apartment rental prices.

Ugly, and about to get a lot uglier.

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=====
By the numbers: The Valley housing market, city by city
http://phoenix.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2010/08/02/focus4.html#
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Glut of Valley rental homes results in lower prices, lease concession
http://phoenix.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2010/09/20/story9.html
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Arizona home affordability rides middle ground
http://phoenix.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2010/09/20/daily38.html?surround=lfn
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Home prices flat nationally, down in Arizona
http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2010/09/13/daily29.html
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CoreLogic: Home Price Index Remained Flat in July
http://www.corelogic.com/About-Us/News/CoreLogic-Home-Price-Index-Remained-Flat-in-July.aspx
=====

Jail and Jobs

[mEDITate-OR:
not see that all of U.S. are guaranteed by the Constitution to be equal...
THAT provision is NOT enforced or applied that way.

What this shows U.S. is that in spite of what we SAY we believe and do...
what we actually do is VERY different.

Those who believe that "illegal immigrants" are our most serious problem, simply are ignoring what has not changed. If you did not know it before, you DO know it now - from the Tea Party reactions to Obama. Racism is alive an well among U.S.

We thought that not only had we made some progress, but we were better than that.
------------
Among the other disturbing findings (in chart form) from the report:
1) The United States houses more inmates than the top 35 European countries combined.
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2) Incarceration rates in the United States have risen sharply since 1980, especially for young black men. Today more than one in three young black men without a high school diploma is currently behind bars.

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3) If you include inmates when looking at the jobs picture, that picture looks a whole lot worse. Believe it or not, young black men who dropped out of high school are more likely to be incarcerated than employed.

---------4) These trends have implications not only for those who are serving time, but also for the families that depend on them. There are twice as many minor children with incarcerated parents as there are incarcerated parents.

=========
Jail and Jobs
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/29/jail-and-jobs/
===============

Phoenix Foreclosure Market Up: High Tide + Just The Short Sale Homes, Condos, Lofts, Land For Sale In Phoenix

[mEDITate-OR:
not see the extreme dislocation in the RE market in AZ...

First, note that the NEW increase is huge over last year,  and over the last quarter...
Second, note WHERE these are happening, not on the ground, but the price/mortgage levels.
Third, note where the dog is not barking..., in the "jumble RE loan +" price levels.
Fourth, note the short sale numbers.

What that tells U.S. is that the servicer/lender banks ARE taking back and listing the lowest priced home bcuz they can sell them.
And, while they are taking back higher priced homes they are NOT listing them, bcuz they can NOT sell them.
And, what the owners of those properties are forced to do is try to minimize their losses by seeking "short sales".

What MIGHT also be true is that the servicer/lender banks will be FAR more willing to approve high end short sales - they have little, if any, alternative.
--------
Here are Artur Ciesielski's comments and analysis:
--------   REO's:
Active bank owned homes are up: up nearly 84% over last year and 38% since last quarter.  Currently there are 8,544 foreclosed home for sale, but sales are up only 4% raising the total supply to double that of last quarter and putting some pressure on the market, including prices.
Most of the increase in inventory has been in the $200,000 and lower price range with 129% increase in the $100,000 or less.  The $500,000 plus price range had a 5% increase reports the Cromford Report.
------------  Short Sales:
The Phoenix market is now heavily saturated by short sale properties which are on the upswing as a percentage of the market and total now on average over 15,000 properties in Maricopa County.
They are also popular amongst buyers who are able to stick with the short sale process which does require a different approach then normal or even bank owned purchases.  Often the ability to persevere is rewarded with a good purchase.
===========
Phoenix Foreclosure Market Up: High Tide
http://www.phoenixmarkettrends.com/public/item/260764
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Just The Short Sale Homes, Condos, Lofts,
Land For Sale In Phoenix
http://www.phoenixmarkettrends.com/public/item/260659
===========

September Employment Report Preview

[mEDITate-OR:
miss out on the real impact of the census employees...
Not only has Jim @ CR provided U.S. with the best views of the Census Worker impacts, he has also consistently explained for U.S. what it really means, and what the unemployment numbers REALLY are.
So, you need to read this CR article to be able to interpret the next report
--------

==========
September Employment Report Preview
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/september-employment-report-preview.html
============

Foreclosure Mess: More on BofA Foreclosure Freeze, Wells Fargo satisfied with Procedures + Report: Title Insurance company stops insuring Chase Foreclosures

[mEDITate-OR:
not read what all the shouting is all about...

There was "fraud in the inception" when they originated these bad RE loans.
Now, they are committing fraud, that is going to bite them, and U.S., in the ass.

What was a mess, has now turned absolutely disgusting.

As you will see from the 2n article, IF the title insurance industry will not insure NEW "foreclosures..., that does not even begin to address those that have been foreclosed and re-sold.

While we DID need a "jobs bill", did we really need another "Lawyers' Relief Act"?
-----------

========
Foreclosure Mess:
More on BofA Foreclosure Freeze
Wells Fargo satisfied with Procedures
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/foreclosure-mess-more-on-bofa.html
--------------
Report: Title Insurance company
stops insuring Chase Foreclosures
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/report-title-insurance-company-stops.html
=========

Commercial Real Estate: End of Extend and Pretend? = Lenders gaining speed in going after commercial foreclosures

[mEDITate-OR:
miss the beginning of the end of Extend and Pretend.

What we have to remember is that the vast majority of ALL cmcl RE loans are 5yr balloons that MUST be re-financed, OR extended, OR defaulted.


What "They" now know is that for cmcl RE it simply is NOT going to get better any time soon.
What WE do not know is whether or not this is going to spread to first the sand states, and then to the rest of U.S.?
--------
Comment by Jim @ CR:
Las Vegas is in worse shape than most other areas, but it sounds like the lenders are now moving ahead and foreclosing on CRE properties - and that might mean the pace of CRE foreclosures will pick up nationwide.
=========
Commercial Real Estate: End of Extend and Pretend?
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/commercial-real-estate-end-of-extend.html
----------
Lenders gaining speed in going after commercial foreclosures
http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2010/oct/01/lenders-gaining-speed-going-after-commercial-forec/
==========

Unofficial Problem Bank List increases to 877 institutions

[mEDITate-OR:
not see what most of the rest of U.S. do not see...


This is not only the latest "unofficial problem bank list"...
but, CR provides U.S. with a summary of where we have come from the beginning of the CR providing U.S. with this unique and extremely valuable tool for U.S. to understand.
Below is probably the best explanation you will read for this last year.
-----------
Transition Matrix
With the passage of another quarter, it is time to update the transition matrix. The Unofficial Problem Bank List debuted on August 7, 2009 with 389 institutions with assets of $276.3 billion (see table). 

Over the past 13 months, 144 institutions have been removed from the original list with 103 due to failure, 29 due to action termination, and 12 due to unassisted merger. Thus, about 72 percent of the removals are from failure. 

Nearly 27 percent of the 389 institutions on the original list have failed, which is substantially higher than the 12 percent figure usually cited by the media as the failure rate for institutions on the FDIC Problem Bank List. Failed bank assets have totaled $159 billion or nearly 58 percent of the $276.3 billion on the original list.

Since the publication of the original list, another 740 institutions have been added. However, only 632 of those 740 additions remain on the current list as 108 institutions have been removed in the interim. Of the 108 interim removals, 88 were due to failure, 15 were due to unassisted merger, 4 from action termination, and one from voluntary liquidation.

Again, failure represents a disproportionate 81.5 percent of the reason for removal. In total, 1,129 institutions have made an appearance on the Unofficial Problem Bank List and 191 or 16.9 percent have failed. 

The average asset size of removals because of failure is $1.2 billion. Currently, the average asset size of institutions on the current list is $474 million versus $710 million on the original list. This would suggest the asset size of future failures will likely be lower.
---------------

Unofficial Problem Bank List
Change Summary
		Number of Institutions	Assets ($Thousands)
Start (8/7/2009)		389	276,313,429
Subtractions
	Action Terminated	29	(4,038,439)
	Unassisted Merger	12	(1,762,072)
	Failures	103	(159,037,514)
	Asset Change		(11,891,765)
Still on List at 7/02/2010		245	99,583,639
Additions		632	316,517,379
End (10/01/2010)		877	416,101,018
Interperiod Deletions1
	Action Terminated	4	12,881,783
	Unassisted Merger	15	2,545,683
	Voluntary Liquidation	1	119,082
	Failures	88	70,091,963
	Total	108	85,638,511
1Institution not on 8/7/2009 or 10/01/2010 list but appeared on a list between these dates.

--------
Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Oct 1, 2010.
http://calculatedriskimages.blogspot.com/2010/10/unofficial-problem-bank-list-october-1.html
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Unofficial Problem Bank List increases to 877 institutions
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/unofficial-problem-bank-list-increases.html
==================