HAVES AND HAVE-NOTS = Global income inequality: Where the U.S. ranks

[mEDITate-OR:

assume that you have not been "jailed", so to speak

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The U.S. has a higher level of income inequality than Europe,

as well as Canada, Australia and South Korea

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HAVES AND HAVE-NOTS
Global income inequality: Where the U.S. ranks
http://money.cnn.com/2011/11/08/news/economy/global_income_inequality/index.htm?iid=Lead
==========

MBA Application Survey – November 09 2011

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that "purchase apps" will lead to higher sales...
and
that more "Refis" will actually be approved.
---------
This month PE - Sold on the Top and Bill@CR take another very different view of the data.
PS-Sot separate out purchases from Refi's to show U.S. that they are very different.
CR, however, looks at the differences between the 10yr TBill rates and the 30yr fixed rates and re-financing applications.
Both show that when interest rates shift, there is a quick, direct impact on mortgage behavior.
-------
What we MUST remember, however, is that for RE sales, especially for foreclosures, the interest rates are almost meaningless. Tis the price that "counts" for the all cash investors.
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=========

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MBA Application Survey – November 09 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/11/reading-rates-mba-application-survey_09.htm
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Mortgage Rates and Refinance Index
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/mortgage-rates-and-refinance-index.html
========

FMac/MBA Survey - Reading Rates: Nov 09 = Mortgagte rates move below 4%, near record lows

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that bcuz RE loans are now cheap...
that anyone is willing to give you one.
---------

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=====
FMac = Mortgagte rates move below 4%, near record lows
------------
MBA Survey - Reading Rates: November 09
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/11/reading-rates-mba-application-survey_09.html
======

U.S.'s Trade Deficit declines in September as Exports increase

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that we have the ability to "sell" our way out of this economic mess...
by assuming that we can, or will, stop buying crude oil.
-------
---------

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Trade Deficit declines in September as Exports increase
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/trade-deficit-declines-in-september-as.html
==========

China's Trade Surplus = October foreign trade slows; surplus continues to fall = drops 8.3% from Sept + surplus rebounds to $24b in Oct

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that China can fund U.S. and Europe at the same time.
and
assume that China will or want to do that
-----

-----

=========
China's Oct foreign trade drops 8.3% from Sept
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2011-11/10/content_14072462.htm
--------
China's trade surplus rebounds to $24b in Oct
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2011-11/07/content_14050490.htm
=======

Canada posts trade surplus as exports rebound = an overall $1.2-billion trade surplus, following August's $487-million deficit + Energy fuels surprise - first trade surplus since January

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that as Europe and U.S. go...
so goes Canada.
---------
Who was the most surprised by the shift from trade deficit to surplus...
U.S. or The Canucks?
But, in these uncertain times, this is a BIG deal.
Oh Canada...!!!
---------

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=========

Exports to the United States increased five per cent to $28.2 billion, the highest value since January.

Imports from the United States decreased one per cent to $23.8 billion.

As a result, Canada's trade surplus with the United States rose to $4.4 billion in September from $2.8 billion in August.

-----------

Exports to countries other than the United States rose 2.3 per cent to $11.5 billion, the fifth straight monthly increase.

Imports from countries other than the United States rose 0.7 per cent to $14.7 billion.

Consequently, the trade deficit with countries other than the United States fell to $3.1 billion in September from $3.3 billion in August, the lowest level so far this year.

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Exports of agricultural and fishing products increased 9.4% to $3.7 billion, the highest level since peaking in October 2008.

Leading the sector was canola, which hit a record high of $444 million in September.

========

Canada posts trade surplus as exports rebound

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/canada-posts-trade-surplus-as-exports-rebound/article2231782/

http://www.canadianbusiness.com/article/56376--canada-gets-its-trade-mojo-back-but-is-september-last-good-month

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Canadian international merchandise trade

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/111110/dq111110a-eng.htm

============

Japan's Trade current account surplus down 21.4% on-year + 7th Straight Month = 46.8% fall in Japan's 1st-half current account surplus

[mEDITate-OR:
not see that the tsunami has devastated them...
and still is
----------------
imports of crude oil surged 26.3%
and
purchases of liquefied natural gas soared 49.8% in September.
-----------

===========
Japan current account surplus down 21.4% on-year
http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/Money/Story/STIStory_732045.html
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Quake prompts 46.8% fall in Japan's 1st-half current account surplus
http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/business/news/20111109p2g00m0bu110000c.html
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Japan’s Current-Account Surplus Narrows Less Than Forecast
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-09/japan-s-current-account-surplus-narrows-less-than-forecast-1-.html
=========

German Exports Log Unexpected Growth, Trade Surplus Rises - three year high - EUR 15.3 billion in Sept

[mEDITate-OR:
not see that German either has, or has not, the ability to finance the bailouts.
---------

Exports increased by 10.5% and imports by 11.6%

After seasonal adjustment, exports and imports showed diverging trends

exports rose by 0.9% on August 2011, imports fell by 0.8%.

----------

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===========
German exports rose for a second straight month in September
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1023453.shtml
---------
German Exports Log Unexpected Growth, Trade Surplus Rises
http://www.rttnews.com/Content/EuroEconomicNews.aspx?Id=1754849&SM=1
============

RealtyTrac: Foreclosure Activity Hits 7 Month High in October + Las Vegas No Longer No. 1

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that The Numbers tell U.S. the Truth, the WHOLE Truth, and nothing else...
----------

------------
=========
RealtyTrac: Foreclosure Activity Hits 7 Month High in October
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/realtytrac-foreclosure-activity-hits-7.html
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U.S. Foreclosure Activity Hits 7-Month High in October
Defaults in California, Florida and Michigan Hit Highs of 12 Months or More
New State Law Pushes Nevada Defaults to 64-Month Low,
Las Vegas No Longer No. 1
http://www.realtytrac.com/content/foreclosure-market-report/us-foreclosure-activity-hits-7-month-high-in-october-6896
========

Unemployment: Initial, Continued and Extended Unemployment Claims Nov 10 + drop to 7-month low = About 390,000

[mEDITate-OR:
think - about what this really means.
vs do a media "spin" on it.

---------
These two sets - two from PE's Sold at the Top, and two from Bill@CR - show U.S. very different views of the weekly claims numbers.
CR does not bother to show U.S. the volatile weekly numbers, only the more rational 4 week moving averages.

----------
PE shows U.S. the gentle decline over the last two years, which suggests that, slowly, tis gett'n better.
CR shows U.S. the longer view - since W became President, and what happened when we, finally, got rid of him - we tanked. While we ARE, very slowly gett'n better, we have a LONG way to go.

---------
Couple of days ago, JOLTS showed U.S. that "quits" were increasing, a lot.
What that suggests is that while fewer people are filing for new claims.
the reason is that they quit their old jobs WHEN they found a new one.
So, new claims MAY go down, and job creation may stay the same.
The long-term unemployed are simply "out of luck".

---------
The implications of that are economically stunning.

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Unemployment:
Initial, Continued and Extended Unemployment Claims Nov 10
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/11/extended-unemployment-initial-continued_10.html
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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 390,000
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims_10.html
========

Economic Jolt: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Sept + BLS: Job Openings increase in September

[mEDITate-OR:
miss two very significant factoids.
-----------
First, the number of quits is increasing.
Previously, we saw a lot more firings and layoffs, balanced with an almost equal number of hires.
Now, we see more people quitting, balanced with an almost equal number of hires.
-------
Previously, that was an employer's market.
Now, it might be an employee's market.
People might feel that, since the number of jobs being lost is slowing down, 
now is "The Time" to find a better job.
------
What we do not know from this is whether they are escaping a "bad paying" job...
or finding much better opportunities.
One suspects that it tis a wee bit of both.
-----
As Nike tells U.S.:   "Just DO it!"
----------
Second, the number of people leaving their jobs, for whatever reason has increased, but so has the number of people being hired.
However, that does NOT mean that the total unemployed went down.
and it does not mean that the total employed went up
--------
So, the labor "participation rate" may not have changed.
Nor, may the identities of who has and who has not got a job.
But, there is a LOT more movement, of people.
Very interesting.
=======
First, some CR observations:
-------
Although the number of job openings remained below the 4.4 million openings when the recession began in December 2007,
the level in September was 1.2 million higher than in July 2009 (the most recent trough for the series).
The number of job openings has increased 38 percent since the end of the recession in June 2009.
-------
Quits increased in September, and have been trending up - and quits are now up about 11% year-over-year.
These are voluntary separations and more quits might indicate some improvement in the labor market.
======
Second, about The Charts.
-----------
The 1st-CR chart shows U.S. "everything at once" 
From Jan 08 to Jan 10 there was a massive decline in "quits" - The blue area.
From Jan 10 we see an increase in both job opening and quits.
While new hires tanked in the first 2/3rds of 10, hires are trending back up.
----------
The next group of PaperEconomy charts from Sold at the Top show U.S. a very different view to CR's, but using the same basic data. More detail about each factor - hires, fires, and quits.
==========
Two very good use of charts to show U.S. the real economic jobs picture
-----------
Compare and enjoy.
======

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Economic Jolt: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Sept
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/11/economic-jolt-job-openings-and-labor.html
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BLS: Job Openings increase in September
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/bls-job-openings-increase-in-september.html
========

CoreLogic + RadarLogic = House Price Index declined 1.1% in September + After steadying, home prices begin falling again

[mEDITate-OR:
have a Case-Shiiller of a cold...
bcuz we ARE going down by/for The Count.
----
The Summer Selling Season is OVER.
And, the frosty days of Winter are upon U.S.
------

The states with the biggest price drops were

Nevada (down 12.4 percent),

Illinois (down 9.2 percent),

Arizona (down 9.0 percent),

Minnesota (down 8.2 percent) and

Georgia (down 7.2 percent. )

The states with the biggest price gains were West Virginia (up 7.0 percent), Wyoming (up 3.8 percent), South Dakota (up 3.6 percent), Maine (up 3.5 percent) and North Dakota (up 3.1 percent.)

--------------

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======

CoreLogic: House Price Index declined 1.1% in September
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/corelogic-house-price-index-declined-11.html
------
Radar Watching: September 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/11/radar-watching-september-2011.html
-----
After steadying, home prices begin falling again
http://bottomline.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/11/07/8684796-after-steadying-home-prices-begin-falling-again
=======

New data show grim picture of poverty + poverty at record = high Almost 16 percent of country, 49.1 million, now meet criteria

[mEDITate-OR:

think that bcuz WE are not suffering, no body is.

---------

the West had the most people in poverty at 19.4 percent.

It was followed by the South (16.3 percent),

the Northeast (14.5 percent) and

the Midwest (13.1 percent).

--------

===
New data show grim picture of poverty
http://bottomline.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/11/07/8680598-new-data-show-grim-picture-of-poverty
-----------
Number of Americans in poverty at record high
Almost 16 percent of country, 49.1 million, now meet criteria
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45195014/ns/business-eye_on_the_economy/#.TrhEjPQr2dA
====

Retail: Seasonal Hiring vs. Retail Sales

[mEDITate-OR:
not have noticed that not only did Halloween come very early
but Christmas came before Thanksgiving.
----
What Bill @ CR points out is:
1. this Oct is not quite as good as last Oct
and
2. the critical month IS November.
THAT is true, during a "normal" Christmas shopping season.
----
THIS year tis NOT "normal".
The Good News is that TV prices are going to be discounted, a lot.
The Bad News is that every body that aint got one already, mcCain't afford one, now.
----
Well, unless they decide to steal one, instead of food.
-----

=====
Retail: Seasonal Hiring vs. Retail Sales
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/retail-seasonal-hiring-vs-retail-sales.html
====

Sluggish Growth and Payroll Employment

[mEDITate-OR:
not fell like you are falling..., said Alice to Dorothy..., all over ourKansas...
-----
Or as CR points out we will NOT dig our way out of this one for another 4 years, merely to put back to work those that WERE working 4 years ago.
Then we will need to FIND jobs for the millions of new entrants.
So, by then end of the NEXT Presidents "Term in Office (or is that Jail?)" we will be "back to normal".
It will not happen.
Sorry, you; sorry, me; sorry, U.S.
---------
If we continue to see sluggish growth with 125,000 payroll jobs added per month (the pace this year),
it will take an additional 52 months just to get back to the pre-recession level of payroll employment
-----------
And this doesn't include population growth and new entrants into the workforce (the workforce has continued to grow).
--------

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Sluggish Growth and Payroll Employment
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/sluggish-growth-and-payroll-employment.html
======

OLD VS. YOUNG WEALTH GAP = Older Americans are 47 times richer than young + Downturn takes heaviest toll on younger Americans

[mEDITate-OR:
think that The American Dream is still alive..., for U.S.
and not the Chinese, the Canadians, the Fins...
----------

==========
OLD VS. YOUNG WEALTH GAP 
= Older Americans are 47 times richer than young
http://money.cnn.com/2011/11/07/news/economy/wealth_gap_age/index.htm?iid=Lead
------
Downturn takes heaviest toll on younger Americans
http://lifeinc.today.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/11/04/8639405-downturn-takes-heaviest-toll-on-younger-americans
==========