A deficit in the info about the Federal budget deficit

[mEDITate-OR:
think that Bill Clinton was the best thing that's ever happened to U.S,
and
that what W left to U.S. simply COULD not have been that bad.
AND, then...
realize that W's "nationalization" of FMae&FMac
and TARP
and the 2009 budget deficit W left U.S.
were all paid for by our/HIS borrowings from China.
----
What U.S. worry.
---------

--------------

This 2n chart shows U.S. precisely what we are buying.

Defense - in two wars

Social Security payments to those too lazy to go back to work.

Health & Human Services.., to too many kids..., and

medical care to those too lazy to go back to work.

-----

Please notice the huge increase in the Dept of Labor

paying all those too lazy to go out and find a job.

----------

==========

US Trade Gap Shrunk in November as Exports Increased + Unexpectedly Narrows - for the third straight month - To Ten-Month Low In November

[mEDITate-OR:
think that "They" are telling U.S. the Truth about what they see...
and then find out some of them actually are.
------

Trade deficit =

The biggest deficit by far is with China

the source of many of the goods on the shelves of Wal-Mart

It rose slightly this month, to $25.6 billion from $25.5 billion.

That is still 66.8% of our overall trade deficit.

Of the total goods deficit of $51.17 billion

$20.08 billion -- 39.2% -- is due to our oil addiction.

Relative to the overall trade deficit, our oil addiction is 52.4% of the problem.

On a year-to-date basis, we have run a $240.6 billion deficit just from petroleum

Put another way, the year-to-date trade deficit has totaled $458.7 billion

which is 84% what all the firms in the S&P 500 earned, worldwide, in 2009.

------------

Goods by geographic area (not seasonally adjusted)

The goods deficit with Canada increased from $1.2bn in October to $1.8bn in November.

The goods deficit with China increased from $25.5bn in October to $25.6bn in November.

The goods deficit with Mexico decreased from $5.8bn in October to $5.6bn in November.

The goods surplus with Brazil was virtually unchanged at $1.1bn in November.

------------
While we agree with your oil addiction argument, we note that once again you do not say WHERE we are buying The Stuff from.
With regard to the two largest suppliers of crude oil to U.S., Canada & Mexico, we also supply them with huge supplies of refined product. Point, buying cheap, selling expensive. So, while this looks & sounds like a simple problem, tis not. And, the US$ 20 Billion deficit has NOT been adjusted for our profits in refined fuels sales.
Then, we turn around and buy a lot from Venezuela, which they intern supply at very cheap prices to Cuba. Did you see where Chavez was POd to learn that some of the cheap oil he was selling to China, was being sold by China at substantially higher prices, some of it to U.S.? Go figure, that one out & explain it to him or U.S.
Then we buy a lot of Chevron & Shell oil from Nigeria. Who knows how many people are being killed, starved and economically cheated there? But, of course, none of that is our problem.
What you did not mention is the huge shift by fleets, especially city & school bus systems over to NG after the last price surge. That fleet distribution system can easily be expanded. But, as you say, we simply don't do it. Go figure the cost of that to U.S.
-----------------

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------------

--------------

------------

=============
US Trade Gap Shrunk in November as Exports Increased
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/01/trade-gap-shrunk-in-november-as-exports-increased/69475/
-------------
US trade deficit narrowed for the third straight month in November
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1021392.shtml
------------
Trade Deficit Falls Again

http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/45927/Trade+Deficit+Falls+Again

http://seekingalpha.com/article/246467-trade-deficit-falls-again

-------------
Census Has It Wrong - Trade Deficit Increased in November
http://seekingalpha.com/article/246474-census-has-it-wrong-trade-deficit-increased-in-november
=============

Germany Sees Biggest GDP Growth - 3.6% - Since Reunification In 2010 + almost returning to pre-crisis level

[mEDITate-OR
not realize that Germany exports high quality goods not only to themselves, but the rest of Europe and the world.
While the EURO and the US$ dance up and down, the rest of the world KNOWS that they can still buy German quality.
And, they still are.
----------
what was striking in 2010 was the fact that economic growth was not only based on foreign trade, but also on domestic demand.
-----------

-------------

-------------

==========
Germany Sees Biggest GDP Growth - 3.6% - Since Reunification In 2010
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1021378.shtml
---------------
EU ECONOMY
Germany: Industrial production almost returning to pre-crisis level
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1021374.shtml
===========

Canada's trade deficit in November narrowed unexpectedly to the smallest level in the two years

[mEDITate-OR:
wonder how it is possible for Canadian goods to become more expensive...
But, they are selling more stuff abroad, and to U.S.
--------
For the last three years Canada's govt has been trying to keep the Loonie down so those of U.S. who want to build more houses would buy more Canadian lumber. Oddly, that hasn't happened. Go figure.
But, when you look at the details, you will see that Canada exports more than crude oil and timber and auto parts. And, the rest of the world LIKES things made in Canada.
Truly, un-American.
---------

---------
The trade balance has recorded deficits in 17 of the 24 months since December 2008 when it posted the first gap since 1976.
Exports in November climbed 0.8% to C$34.30 billion
Overall export prices were up 2.8% but volumes fell 2%.
Volumes of auto products sank 10% as some plants closed temporarily during the months.
Imports fell 3.2% to C$34.38 billion, led by a 15.1% plunge in volumes of energy products.
Canada's trade surplus with the U.S., its largest trading partner, widened to C$3 billion from C$1.71 billion
The trade deficit with countries other than the U.S. declined to C$3.1 billion from C$3.2 billion
exports grew 1.1%, the fifth straight gain
Exports of industrial goods and materials were valued at C$9.54 billion, increasing 6.6% from the prior month
Shipments of precious metals drove a 21.7% jump in exports of metals and alloys to C$4.2 billion.
Exports of energy products rose 3.2% to C$6.91 billion as prices rose 3.6%.
The increase was largely due to a 12.5% gain in exports of crude petroleum.
Exports of natural gas fell 17.1%, the fourth consecutive decline.
13% decline in shipments of passenger cars.
Medicinal and pharmaceutical products drove a 11.5% increase in exports
Imports of precious metals, notably silver, surged 24.3% to a record high C$1.3 billion.
=============
Trade deficit shrinks in November
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/trade-deficit-shrinks-in-november/article1868347/
------------
Canada Nov Trade Deficit Narrows Unexpectedly To Smallest In 2 yrs
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110113-707997.html
=========

Labor force size in Dec VS Job openings in Nov + net annual changes in select industries

[mEDITate-OR:
not really KNOW that there is a serious problem...
--------
IF you compare charts 1 and 2 you too will see that while job openings have been increasing monthly since the middle of 09, the labor force participation has been shrinking.
More jobs, less people working.
Why?
-------
There are two very informative articles by Colin Barr of Fortune and Daniel Indiviglio of the Atlantic that discuss this "participation" issue in depth. This issue/problem has been discussed by Jim@ Calculated Risk for a number of years now.
We will find the three points of view, and post them asap.
---------
The 3rd chart shows U.S. very clearly that while the total employment - hires vs fires/layoff/quits - remains almost constant at 400,000+ each month, what is actually happening in different industries is VERY different.
This is "mobility" that is many cases is being forced.
Whether or not you can sell your home, or buy another one, now.
========

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==========

Payroll employment up 1.1 million in 2010

http://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2011/ted_20110110.htm

-------------
Unemployment in December 2010
http://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2011/ted_20110111.htm
---------
Job openings in November 2010
http://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2011/ted_20110112.htm
===========

Loonie will stay at par with U.S. thanks to "sound" fiscal situation

[mEDITate-OR:

think that "The Ugly Americans" is about the economy...

and has nothing to do with you.

---------

While all of the attention of too many of U.S. is focused on China, or the EURO, or the price of gas, a major economic shift has taken place that is NOT being shown to U.S.

First, you need to look at currencies for economically strong countries - Switzerland, Canada & Australia. Vis those countries the US dollar is collapsing. In aboot (CAN sp) three years the CAN Loonie has risen from US$ 65 to now above par.

Try as the current Conservative Govt has to force the Loonie back down - If China were doing that, we would call it currency manipulation. But, our Good Neighbor to The Far North would never, EVER do that to U.S. So, tisn't true. - they cannot. Being very well run has its benefits - really cheap property from U.S.

-----------

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------------

============
Loonie will stay at par with U.S. thanks to "sound" fiscal situation
http://www.cbc.ca/politics/story/2011/01/12/flaherty-dollar.html?ref=rss
===========

Is the Debt Ceiling the Most Cynical Vote in Congress?

[mEDITate-OR:
think that being cynical is wonderful, and then that tis not, and then, again...
as you change parties, but not change parties.
=============
Free advice, to similar thinkers:
Setting aside the well known fact that "most cynical vote" is twice redundant..., we would advise you NOT to visit Arid-zone-ah anytime soon. Since you mcain't "carry" onto the plane with you, "They" will off you before you off your baggage.

However, you might consider changing your name, like AZrs change The Truth, to suit your/them/selves. With two persona you may be able to fit in wherever you go.

-------------

------------

========

Is the Debt Ceiling the Most Cynical Vote in Congress?
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/01/is-the-debt-ceiling-the-most-cynical-vote-in-congress/69588/
==============

How The US Could Lose Its AAA Status By The End Of 2011 + Does The Fed's Balance Sheet Explosion Look Familiar? + Actually, The U.S. Has Looked Like Japan For a Long Time

[mEDITate-OR:
want a pic fix, each and every day, and not know where to go to get one...
When you can get one sent to you, free of anything buy knowledge !!
And, if you thought that economics was "The Dismal Science" before...
well, you will still know that is true.
These 3 charts will show all of U.S. that PIIGs aren't the only things that can't fly.
The Argument of the 1st is that the interest we now are obligated to pay is so far above our revenue/ability to pay, that we are in a maelstrom that we cannot get out of.
The 2nd chart shows U.S., that as bad as Japan's GDP aging population problem is, we look almost identical - NOT pretty.
The 3rd chart's argument is that we have borrowed ourselves into the same corner as Japan.
-------
While these charts ARE "argumentative", they provide food for troubled soles.
-----------
CHART OF THE DAY:
http://www.businessinsider.com/newsletter
-------------

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---------

==========
CHART OF THE DAY:
===========
How The US Could Lose Its AAA Status By The End Of 2011
http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-interest-to-revenue-ratio-2011-1
------------
Does The Fed's Balance Sheet Explosion Look Familiar?
http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-japan-us-reserve-bank-credit-outstanding-2011-1
------------
Actually, The U.S. Has Looked Like Japan For a Long Time
http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-us-japan-gdp-per-capita-2011-1
============

While foreclosures climbed 2% nationally, California saw a 14% drop + Foreclosures were off 26% in December 2010 vs. year ago

[mEDITate-OR:
think that trees are still being cut down, in the forests of BC

to build U.S. more new homes.

--------

Not only is the info from Cal different from Fla
but the info this month from Cal and AZ is different for the year

Bluntly, the numbers do not tell U.S. anything.

Other than the fact that the backlog of delinquencies is HUGE.

Something, at some point, will have to be done with all of "Them".

---------------

---------------

More than half of the country's foreclosure activity came out of five states in 2010: California, Florida, Arizona, Illinois and Michigan. Together, these states recorded almost 1.5 million households receiving a filing

despite year-over-year decreases in California, Florida and Arizona.

However, note that

Arizona and California also showed sharp December increases in the number of homes banks took back, at 52 percent and 47 percent

-------------

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============
Foreclosures decline in California in 2010
While foreclosures climbed 2% nationally, California saw a 14% drop.
But California's high unemployment rate and resetting loans mean the fall in foreclosure activity could be brief.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-foreclosures-20110113,0,6804237.story

------------

Banks repossess 1 million homes in 2010

http://www.macon.com/2011/01/13/1409098/banks-repossess-1-million-homes.html

------------

Foreclosures were off 26% in December 2010 vs. year ago

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2011-01-13-foreclosure13_ST_N.htm

===========

US Foreclosure Filings May Jump 20% This Year as Crisis Peaks

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-13/u-s-foreclosure-filings-may-jump-20-this-year-as-crisis-peaks.html

==========

RealtyTrac: Record 2.9M Properties Received Foreclosure Filings In 2010

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110112-716199.html

===========

Mortgage rates fall - to 4.78 percent + So do home purchase applications - declined 3.7% + refinance application volume increased 4.90%

[mEDITate-OR:
not see that while having mortgage rates drop back down is good news for housing...
that is not, yet, what is happening.
Those who did refi before they went up, re-applied now.
But, purchases have stalled due, in part, to declining values
---------

-----------

Home purchase applications have fallen in four of the past five weeks

The share of applicants seeking to refinance a loan rose to 72.1 percent last week

----------------

the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage declined 15 basis point to 4.78% since last week

the purchase application volume declined 3.7%

and the refinance application volume increased 4.90% over the same period

---------

------------

===========

Mortgage rates fall. So do home purchase applications.
Mortgage rates for 30-year fixed loan declines to 4.78 percent
http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Paper-Economy/2011/0112/Mortgage-rates-fall.-So-do-home-purchase-applications
-----------
U.S. Mortgage Applications Rise for Second Straight Week on Lower Rates
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-12/mortgage-applications-rose-in-u-s-for-second-straight-week.html
===========

BLS: Job Openings steady in November, Labor Turnover still Low + November JOLTS: Jobs Slip, But Still Up 32% Year Over Year

[mEDITate-OR:
not get a JOLT out of this one...
---------
Millions were let go, millions were hired, not many more employed.
Sad. Bad.
----------
In November, about 4.118 million people lost (or left) their jobs, and 4.210 million were hired (this is the labor turnover in the economy) adding 92 thousand total jobs. 
Even with the slight decline in November, job openings are up significantly over the last year.
------------

=======
BLS: Job Openings steady in November, Labor Turnover still Low
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/01/bls-job-openings-steady-in-november.html
---------------
November JOLTS: Jobs Slip, But Still Up 32% Year Over Year
http://seekingalpha.com/article/246173-november-jolts-jobs-slip-but-still-up-32-year-over-year
==============

Rail Traffic in 2010 Up 7.3% Year-over-Year + AAR: Rail Traffic increases in December

[mEDITate-OR:

think that most bulk & container cargo is shopped by truck...

when tis sent by rail from LA, Oakland and Sea-Tac

-------------

The 2 sets of charts below are from CR and Econintersect.

Same data source, AAR

but not only a different view, but also a different comparative interpretation.

We have come a long way back from the 08 bottom

but, we are not yet back to where we were.

Please, read both articles.

----------

There is a truly stunning interactive chart from the AAR - Americana Association of Railroads

not only does it show originations & terminations - by state, but also by commodity.

click on your state, and see...!

See the importance of the U.S. freight railroad industry to all 50 U.S. states and the nation as a whole

http://www.aar.org/AAR/KeyIssues/Railroads-States.aspx

--------------

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===========

Rail Traffic in 2010 Up 7.3% Year-over-Year
http://econintersect.com/wordpress/?p=4850
-------------
AAR: Rail Traffic increases in December
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/01/aar-rail-traffic-increases-in-december.html
=========

The Average U.S. Home Sale Has 2.15 Price Reductions Per Listing = Will The Housing Bust Create New Rust Belts?

[mEDITate-OR:
see how far you have sunk, and think that it is finally over...
------
What we are now seeing is a shift, in all of the West, to reduced prices on homes listed for sale.
This is NOT new. Prior to the end of the Buyers Tax Credit programs, Phoenix had the larges number and the largest sized listing price drops in the nation. AFTER the last BTC program ended, Phoenix prices dropped even more.
Those who could buy a BTC buyer did so, those who could not, but still needed to sell, either withdrew from the RE market or dropped their prices to try to buy someone, anyone, to buy their homes.
What IS new, now, is that many additional areas are lowering prices, including Dallas & Austin, Tx.
------------

Metro Areas With The Largest House Price Declines, 2006-2009

	Price Declines	Price Increases For The Prior Three Years
Stockton, Calif.	-75%	47%
Modesto, Calif.	-73%	49%
Vallejo-Farifield, Calif.	-62%	41%
Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla.	-60%	55%
Salinas, Calif.	-60%	47%
Port St. Lucie, Fla.	-58%	54%
Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev.	-54%	52%
Naples-Marco Island, Fla.	-54%	58%
Riverside-San Bernadino-Ontario, Calif.	-54%	56%
Bakersfield-Delano, Calif.	-47%	61%
Ft. Lauderdale-Pompano Bch.-Boynton Beach, Fla.	-45%	53%
Fresno, Calif.	-45%	56%

----------
Highlights of ZipRealty's December index include:
The number of price-reduced homes on the market is up 23.4 percent over December of 2009
Price-reduced homes fell faster than total inventory, with the number of price-reduced homes plunging 7.7 percent compared to a 5.2 percent decrease in overall inventory in December as compared to November
The median list price dropped by 3.9 percent from November to $225,434, and the average percentage of price reduction amount to list price rose to 7.9 percent in December
In 9 markets, more than half of homes for sale in December included at least one price reduction, down from 11 markets in November. Those markets are Phoenix,  Jacksonville, Minneapolis/St. Paul, Tucson, Orlando, Chicago, Seattle, Baltimore, and Orange County
Homes listed for sale in Florida markets were discounted by the largest percentage of original list price nationwide with Orlando leading (12.4 percent), followed by Miami/Ft. Lauderdale/Palm Beach (12.2 percent) and Jacksonville (12 percent)
Markets with the largest median price reduction in absolute dollars were:

------------

==========
The Average U.S. Home Sale Has 2.15 Price Reductions Per Listing
http://www.realestatechannel.com/us-markets/residential-real-estate-1/home-price-reductions-ziprealty-home-price-declines-homes-for-sale-consumer-housing-trends-median-home-price-top-real-estate-markets-3737.php
-------------
Will The Housing Bust Create New Rust Belts?
http://www.npr.org/2011/01/12/132868421/will-the-housing-downturn-create-new-rust-belts
===========

The Labor Picture in December

---------

============

Very Disturbing Employment Trends

[mEDITate-OR:
start crying: "Cry for U.S., Argentina!"
----------

Daniel, very well done, again.

However, while you do allude to those who may have left the workforce, you did not mention two very interesting facts: first, that a very large number of the long-term unemployed were above the age of 55.

While many of those over 62 have been forced to apply for SS early retirement, those under 62 are caught, in a death spiral. They cannot find jobs or get hired, at all, let alone for what they were earning. Many have used up all of their saving. They cannot borrow against the equity in their homes, if there is any left. Banks/lenders do not make 2nd mortgage loans to the unemployed. Their credit card limits have been reduced, even if they did make all their payments. {And, yes, we do know that the banks/lenders aren't making loans to those of U.S. who are still employed.} AND, they cannot retire, and get SS and medical coverage.

The harm - economic, mental, physical, and legal - being done to U.S. is simply incalculable.

---------

Lib1, we extend our deepest condolences, and like most of U.S., will pray for you, even if you will never be admitted, to Heaven.

However, you ARE factored, out. Students ARE factored IN during the summers, and if working after work are counted, as part time. But, those who have stayed in, or gone back, to school, are assumed to be not in "the workforce", and therefore are not counted as "unemployed".

Which raises a number of interesting questions. How many people HAVE gone back to school? How many old folks, above 62 have taken early SS? From the increase in student loans and the increase in SS applications, we suspect a lot of U.S. 

So, if large numbers of U.S. have not entered the labor force, and large numbers have retired, and large numbers have simply withdrawn and stopped looking, what is the REAL unemployment number?

Daniel, and Jim@CR, are correct, the "participation" rates may actually be the only true measure.

And pashley is also correct, the loss of incomes, of equities in homes, of tax revenues to cover SS and Medicare/Medicaid are HUGE. Many will never recover, and it might literally "kill" U.S. economically.

-------------

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==========

Very Disturbing Employment Trends

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/01/very-disturbing-employment-trends/69239/

========