PE's Envisioning Employment: Employment Situation Oct + On The Margin: Total Unemployment + Full Time Workers Fully Under Pressure + Recovery-less Recovery: Unemployment Duration

[mEDITate-OR:
Or, once again, not truly see how bad this is...
and how it is NOT getting any better.

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The 1st chart is PE's version of Bill@CRs, and is similar to Ms.C @ Economx's.

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The 2nd shows U.S. the huge gap between what is generally reported
and what is really true.
However, not that WHEN you fall off the U-6 list you are in "Purgatory".
While it feels, not just, "Like Hell"
"They" do not recognize that is what it is, or that you are in it.

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The last two charts show U.S. how long too many of U.S. have been out of work.
Extremely Ugly.

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PE's Envisioning Employment: Employment Situation Oct 
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/11/envisioning-employment-employment.html
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On The Margin: Total Unemployment
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/11/on-margin-total-unemployment-october.html
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Full Time Workers Fully Under Pressure
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/11/full-time-workers-fully-under-pressure.html
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Recovery-less Recovery: Unemployment Duration
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/11/recovery-less-recovery-unemployment.html
======

Stocks close dismal week down roughly 2%

[mEDITate-OR:
wonder where the bottom is...
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Stocks close dismal week down roughly 2%
http://money.cnn.com/2011/11/04/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm?iid=H_MKT_News
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Compare the next two posts, and see why CR is what it is

The next post is, obviously, the view created by Bill@CR that shows U.S. the many facets of  monthly BLS employment report.
Following that is the CNN chart with their lead story this morning.
What CNN does is "dumb down" the numbers and the information.
In part, bcuz their readers do not have the time or interest, or possibly the understanding, to SEE more than that.
However, what CNN actually does provide US. is much better than AP and other news sources.
So, your computer is giving you much better information that any of your newspapers.
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But, they still have "toons"..., don't they...!!!
Well, as RonnieR used to say to U.S.:
Even that is not true.
They show on their web pages many more toons than they print for you.
Even on Sundays.
Sorry

CRs: October Employment Report: 80,000 Jobs, 9.0% Unemployment Rate + Employment Summary, Part Time Workers, and Unemployed over 26 Weeks

[mEDITate-OR:

fail to read Bill@CR's very explicit explanation in the 2nd CR post, below

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Summary:

"There are a total of 13.9 million Americans unemployed

and 5.9 million have been unemployed for more than 6 months.

Very grim.

Overall this was another weak employment report and suggests sluggish economic growth.

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The 1st chart shows U.S. three very important things we need to look at.
The 2nd & 3rd show U.S. how deep and how long this has been going on.
the 4th & 5th show U.S. two types of U.S. that are being hurt VERY badly by this.
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[mEDITate-OR: two
wonder why they would substantially revise UP that two months by 150,000
and then show this months as another decline.
Which is the Faux Noise?
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The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised from +57,000 to +104,000
and the change for September was revised from +103,000 to +158,000.
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The unemployment rate declined to 9.0% (red line).
The Labor Force Participation Rate was unchanged 64.2% in October (blue line). This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. The participation rate is well below the 66% to 67% rate that was normal over the last 20 years, although some of the decline is due to the aging population.
The Employment-Population ratio increased to 58.4% in October (black line).

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The dotted line is ex-Census hiring.

The red line is moving slowly upwards

- and I'll need to expand the graph soon.

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October Employment Report: 80,000 Jobs, 9.0% Unemployment Rate
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/october-employment-report-80000-jobs-90.html
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Employment Summary, Part Time Workers, and Unemployed over 26 Weeks
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/employment-summary-part-time-workers.html
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UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DIPS = October jobs report: rate dips

[mEDITate-OR:
not find it very odd that bob creation went back down...
but the total number of "unemployed" did also...
maybe they were out "shopping"
and not look'n for a job
like they were supposed to...
--------
who knows?
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UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DIPS = October jobs report: rate dips
http://money.cnn.com/2011/11/04/news/economy/jobs_report_unemployment/index.htm?iid=Lead
========

New Unemployment claims dip below key level + Lowest in 5 Weeks

[mEDITate-OR:
not think...
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"It's like water torture,

or watching paint dry,

or waiting for the water to boil,"

"Initial claims are improving but at a snail's pace."

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Unemployment claims dip below key level + Lowest in 5 Weeks
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ADP = Jobs data improve in October + Adds 110,000 Jobs + Planned layoffs dropped sharply

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that this will predict the monthly BLS numbers later this week.
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but as a divorce client once said: "Twas nice while it lasted!"
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US Nonfarm Private Employment Highlights October, 2011 Report:
Total employment: +110,000
Small businesses:* + 58,000
Medium businesses:** + 53,000
Large businesses:*** - 1,000
Goods-producing sector: - 4,000
Service-providing sector: +114,000
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ADP National Employment Report: October 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/11/adp-national-employment-report-october.html
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US private-sector employment increased by 110,000 in October
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1023421.shtml
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MBA: Mortgage Purchase Application Index increased slightly

[mEDITate-OR:
believe that with few new RE listings, we must have reached "The Bottom"
once again...
unless you see that there are NO buyers.
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The purchase index is at about the same level as in 1996

and the 4-week average is at the lowest level this year.

This does not include cash buyers

but this suggests weaker home sales in November and December.

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MBA: Mortgage Purchase Application Index increased slightly
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/mba-mortgage-purchase-application-index.html
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Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – November 02 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/11/reading-rates-mba-application-survey.html
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U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 13.26 million SAAR in October = Highest since Aug 2009

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that everyone who wants to buy a car has or will...
and that everyone who wants "a truck" will not.
-----
Which is to say:
"Its the price of gas, stupid!"
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This shows the huge collapse in sales in the 2007 recession.
This also shows the impact of the tsunami and supply chain issues on sales, especially in May and June.
Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate.
Growth in auto sales should make a positive contribution to Q4 GDP.
Sales in Q3 averaged 12.45 million SAAR,
and if November and December are at the October rate
sales will be up 6.5% in Q4 over Q3.
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U.S. Light Vehicle Sales at 13.26 million SAAR in October
= Highest since Aug 2009
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/us-light-vehicle-sales-at-1326-million.html
========

LPS: Foreclosure timelines increase, Mortgage delinquency rate declines slightly in September

[mEDITate-OR:
realize that while your dogs and cats may be "fixed"
the rest of U.S. are not.
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New problem loan rates increased sharply over the last two months
with 1.6 percent of loans that were current six months ago
now 60 or more days delinquent or in foreclosure.
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The total number of loans 90+ delinquent is back to 2008 levels.
Most people focus on the GSE seriously delinquent loans, 
but the private and portfolio loans have much high delinquency rates.
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LPS reports that 4.18% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process:
up from 4.11% in August, and
up from 3.84% in September 2010.
This gives a total of 12.27% delinquent or in foreclosure.
It breaks down as:
• 2.36 million loans less than 90 days delinquent.
• 1.84 million loans 90+ days delinquent.
• 2.17 million loans in foreclosure process.
For a total of 6.37 million loans delinquent or in foreclosure in September.
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There are 2.17 million loans in the foreclosure process and
about 39% have been delinquent for more than 2 years, and
another 33% have been delinquent for 1 to 2 years.
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LPS: Foreclosure timelines increase
Mortgage delinquency rate declines slightly in September
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/lps-foreclosure-timelines-increase.html
=========

HVS: Q3 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that these "numbers" are accurate...
when Bill@CR tells U.S. that they are not.
-------
However, they ARE very good at showing U.S.
the similarities and differences between William Jefferson AND W Bush
While it IS true that home ownership was greatly expanded for black and other minorities under Clinton, what is NOT true is that most of those RE loans were the cause of, or the main contributor, to the RE collapse numbers.
What IS true is that when W Bush "enabled" the Big Bad Wall Street Banksters - aka, Countrywide, WAMU, Wichovia and New Century to market bad ARMS and other subprime RE loans in the sand states they DID cause the RE bubble to collapse.
-------
And, in these graphs we can clearly see that.
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Here are some previous posts about some of the HVS issues by economist Tom Lawler:

• Lawler to Census on Housing Data: "Splainin" Needed Not Just on Vacancy Rate

• Census Bureau on Homeownership Rate: We've got “Some 'Splainin' to Do”

• Be careful with the Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report 

• Lawler: Census 2010 and the US Homeownership Rate 

• Lawler: Census 2010 Demographic Profile: Highlights, Excess Housing Supply Estimate, and Comparison to HVS

• Lawler: The “Excess Supply of Housing” War

• Lawler: Census Releases Demographic Profile of 12 States and DC: Confirms Bias of HVS

• Lawler: Census 2010 and Excess Vacant Housing Units 

• Lawler: On Census Housing Stock/Household Data 

• Lawler: Housing Vacancy Survey appears to massively overstate number of vacant housing units

• Lawler: US Households: Why Researchers / Analysts are “Confused”

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HVS: Q3 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/hvs-q3-homeownership-and-vacancy-rates.html
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Boomer Demographics: The Shift Ahead

[mEDITate-OR:
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Boomer Demographics: The Shift Ahead
http://seekingalpha.com/article/299329-boomer-demographics-the-shift-ahead
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Updated Case-Shiller Housing Numbers

[mEDITate-OR:
not only see that each city is very different...
but that what happened when was too.
and
how far they have fallen...
and who is getting back up, the fastest.
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Updated Case-Shiller Housing Numbers
http://seekingalpha.com/article/303829-updated-case-shiller-housing-numbers
=======

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Serious Delinquency Rates mixed in September

[mEDITate-OR
forget that most of FMae&FMac's problem RE loans
were the bad ARMS and subprime loans they made at the very end of the RE mortgage collapse.
Therefore there are three types of RE loans, that are NOT distinguished:
The pre-bubble conforming RE loans,
the bubble bad ARMS and subprimes
and
the post collapse loans that had much higher standards
and ARE, now, over 85% of all RE loan mortgages being made to U.S.
-------

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Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Serious Delinquency Rates mixed in September
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/10/fannie-mae-and-freddie-mac-serious.html
========

Constuction Spending: Sept + increased slightly

[mEDITate-OR:
or not see the FULL decline in construction.
homes, commercial and government
Really still ugly !!!
---------------
However, the different views provided U.S. by
the Paper Economy and by Calculated Risk
show U.S. two very informative views of this.
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Constuction Spending: September 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/11/constuction-spending-september-2011.html
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Construction Spending increased slightly in September
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/construction-spending-increased.html
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ISM Manufacturing Report on Business: Oct

[mEDITate-OR:
think that "the slow down" is due to the colder weather
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Said CR:
This was below expectations of 52.0%, and suggests manufacturing expanded at a slightly slower rate in October than in September.
It appears manufacturing employment expanded in October with the employment index at 53.5%.
New orders were up, and prices fell sharp!
=======

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ISM Manufacturing Report on Business: Oct
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/11/ism-manufacturing-report-on-business.html
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ISM Manufacturing index indicates slower expansion in October
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/ism-manufacturing-index-indicates.html
========