Saturday, July 9, 2011

DISMAL JOBS REPORT = Hiring slows to a crawl = June jobs report: Hiring slows, unemployment rises + Much Weaker Than Expected

[mEDITate-OR:
wonder where we lost our mojo...
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In the middle of the Vietnam War, President Lyndon Baines Johnson accepted The Truth that he had badly mishandled and not won the war; and that the Great Society economy he wanted to create was in shambles.

And, then he announced that he would not accept the nomination of his party, and would not run for reelection for a 2nd term as our President.

Today, we are NOT winning two wars, and the economy is in even worse shape than in shambles.

During the Sen. McCarthy hearing, Joseph Welch asked of po' ol' Senator Joe:

"You've done enough. Have you no sense of decency, sir? At long last, have you left no sense of decency?"

That question can - economically, ethically, democratic­ally, and legally -
now be asked of Barack Obama.

And, IF this President has any sense of decency left, he should do LBJ one better -
he should admit his abject failure as President,
and do what Richard Nixon did - resign.
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DISMAL JOBS REPORT = Hiring slows to a crawl
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June jobs report: Hiring slows, unemployment rises
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U.S. Job Growth Much Weaker Than Expected In June
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After 'mancession,' women losing out in recovery + Mancession to He-covery

[mEDITate-OR:
think that all men, or even all women, are created equal
-------
And, then, KNOW that both men and women have been very differently treated in this Great Recession.
Possibly more important, with local & state job cuts, women are being discriminated against Far Right Now.
AND
IF we were to suddenly bring The Boys home, there is no place for them to go, and no work for them to do.
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DESCRIPTION
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After 'mancession,' women losing out in recovery
http://lifeinc.today.com/_news/2011/07/06/7026304-after-mancession-women-losing-out-in-recovery
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Mancession to He-covery
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/07/06/mancession-to-he-covery/
===========

Searching for a Silver Lining + Overly Optimistic, Once Again + The Cost of Austerity + Comparing Recessions and Recoveries: Job Changes

[mEDITate-OR:
find away to read/see the NYT in spite or even bcuz of their new limits
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JGBellHimself
While your point is very well taken, you missed something - who was being hired, 
and to do what? And, who now are being fired, and what were they doing?

Were it only that simple, but tis not.

Permit me to introduce you to Ms C, (y)our fearless leader - who appears 2 B much more attractive than you do - who has pointed out the Man-cession and now the He-covery!

First, the man-cession was primarily in private non-farm employment, especially construction/male dominated jobs; and neither men nor women in government jobs - like teachers - were being fired. Today, as Ms C points out men are being hired more than women in non-public jobs; however now government cuts are primarily women.

Second, few of you "GD EE-con-omists!!" point out that most of the expanded government hiring was for police, fire and prison employment - primarily men.

And, on the Federal level for "defense spending" - again primarily men.

Most of the cut backs have NOT been in police, fire and prison employment, or defense spending - those GD men - yet. But in social and educational services - aka, those "Thespian" type woe-men - we know Thespians when we see/represent them.

Third, the long term unemployed so far have been primarily men. The newly created long term unemployed are women.

Now, while we DO support equal rights and equal pay for woe-men - and although we still have some doubts about why we men gave (oh, we know) woemen the ability to vote (oh, we know, that one too) - we, and we recommend it to you, note:

The First wave, was men; the Second wave is now women; and when we bring the Boys Home, the Third wave will be more men, again.

Oh, and David, way out West in the separate(d) Californication Nation, they are absolutely terrified of the incoming Tsunami Seventh Wave!
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JGBellHimself
NHCt, you asked: "(Obama) seems to be acting as if the state of the economy will have no impact on his reelection."

It won't, he is already toast. The major, if not only, goal of the Republicans in Congress is to eliminate Obama, mission has been accomplished. The fact that they might, accidentally, eliminated the rest of U.S., is only our collateral (is that a pun?) damage.

Now, as for YOU, David, the Lion Hearted, would you consider the possibility that we were correct, that the economy did NOT bottom out. That what we were, and still are, in is a classic "L" shaped recovery - both in jobs creation and in loss of housing equity.

With each slight movement, the screams that, "its now all over and we all will live happily every after", and "the end of the world is now - when the Mayans said it is", are simply economically wrong.

Nothing has been fixed, nothing is being done to fix U.S., and we are all Brits, now - muddling through this mess.
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JGBellHimself
Well, yes, my dear Ms C - since both hours and earnings are also down, the cost of labor for those who still have a job is down, so we might not have to do what Casey at the Bat-tle said we must do - cut back on what we are paying the least of these.

As we learned in Vietnam, sometimes tis necessary to destroy the village in order to save it. And, if destroying one village is good, destroying all of them must be better. Ask The Head Case(y) if that's not what he is saying and is Right?

And, since he is a tenured faculty economist, he probably does not have to care on the one hand, or even on the other. Not having a care in the world is good, is it not.
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JGBellHimself
Ms C, as for the rest of U.S., remember Janis Joplin's and Kris Kristofferson's song/observation: "Freedom is just another word for nothing left to lose/ Nothing ain't worth nothing but it's free"

One of the things we learned in our divorce practice was, at some point, there is no good reason to stay in a marriage - nothing will change, you will only end up hating each other, or hurting your children, even more.

Today, we all may need to accept the economic and the political Facts Of Life that there is no good reason to continue to support or believe in either Obama or Congressional Republicans - nothing will change, they will not, even if they knew how or could, do anything to assist U.S. individually or as a country out of this mess.

Ms C, we found it odd that learning that you ARE going to be divorced, or that you ARE about to die, can be very liberating. Worrying about it makes absolutely no difference. So, they just stopped; sat back and relaxed.

The time has come, the walrus said, to admit that there is NO "leadership" in this country, and we might as well declare ourselves "Free at last, free at last, thank God almighty, we are free at last." Of ALL of them.

The "Good News" may now be, simply, to get on with our own personal, private lives, as best we can. And, pay absolutely no attention to them. They were, are and will be irrelevant to U.S.
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DESCRIPTION
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Searching for a Silver Lining
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/07/08/searching-for-a-silver-lining/
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Overly Optimistic, Once Again
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/07/08/overly-optimistic-once-again/
------------------
The Cost of Austerity
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/07/08/the-cost-of-austerity/
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Comparing Recessions and Recoveries: Job Changes
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/07/08/comparing-recessions-and-recoveries-job-changes-2/#
===========

Some of the observations that we made about the post immediately below this one.

[mEDITate-OR:
dislike some or all of the observations that we made about the post immediately below this one.
============
JGBellHimself

Today, Derek, you, and Daniel too, may have fully justified your existence.

However, since all of U.S. now appear to be going to Hell on an expedited schedule, the devil is in the details you two have provided U.S.

Hour worked and earning are also down. More are no longer working and those who are now earn less. MOG.

Some will say tis all your fault..

Bcuz, as Max oft said to Agent 99:   "We told you not to tell U.S."
{or something like that}
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JGBellHimself

What is very interesting to watch/read/listen is the Supply Side, Reaganomics, Monetary, Chicago School of Economics, true believers RAIL against increased - even infrastructure - spending; and all that additional debt; when tax revenues collapse. As if there was NO connection.

The one time Post hoc propter hoc actually does apply, you won't do it.

What you fail to notice or refuse to understand is that when the Wall Street Banksters "securitization" mess collapsed, the Republican administration of W recognized that there was a removal of 50% of ALL available RE loan financing, and when China promised (threatened) to stop buying FMae&FMac RE securities, the other 50% was in jeopardy!

At THAT point W flooded the RE financing system with "newly printed" money, that he borrowed from China - they now bought TBills, and he used that/their money to buy FMae&FMac shares & securities.

Where were YOU back then when you should have been screaming about the huge SPENDING INCREASES - expanding the money supply to desperately try to offset the contractions? Where were YOU back then when you could have been screaming about the HUGE  DEBTS being run up to fund one of your pet economic theories - MONETARY expansion to create economic expansion and/or at least try to stop the recession.

What that, and W and you Rs, did do was stop the total collapse of the RE market for U.S. It did NOT stop the huge "October" pre-election job losses; but it made it POSSIBLE for at least some of U.S., even for those who lost their jobs, to sell their homes.

But, it was ALL done with defict spending, and it was done with borrowed dollars.

Now, with ALL tax revenues tanking, what you say you want is to tank ALL spending to match the disaster incoming with an equal and worse outgoing collapse. Stunning.

Do any of you even remember "rainy day accounts"? Where state and local governments were to set aside funds in boom times to cover the revenue shortage in crash times?

Why, did your Republican party endorse that? Was it bcuz cutting back on necessary spending - like police, fire and prison guards - was counter-productive during bad times? Even less people with money to spend, more homes and lives lost, and more criminals put back out on the streets, with no jobs?

Like drunken sailors you spent China's and the Gulf Oil State's money over the last decade, assuming it would go on forever. And, when it stopped, you want everyone else but you to cut back, and for those of you(?) "Christians", who can and should pay more, to not do what Jesus would do.

What we believe is that Thou art Stunning.
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JGBellHimself

Said you: "When you held power in 1 chamber and own the White House you must provide proper replies.... if you let the other party do it the result is easy to forecast and does not go in favor of the party in power."

Asked we:  So, IF for two decades you hold power in 1 or both chambers, and own the White House, and the Supremes, right up to the collapse - you can then assume NO responsibility for anything that happens, and have NO responsibility even try to fix it, and can posture politically to make it even worse, in order for you to regain power?

Sadly, the next Republican President will probably inherit an economy and country in even worse shape than Obama did from W.

As Obama is thought to have said to himself:

"Be very careful what you ask for!

Tis like unprotected pre-marital sex - while you might get it, you might also get a whole lot more/worse."
(or something like that)
==========

Jobs Stagnant as Unemployment Rate Ticks Up to 9.2% in June + The Worst Part of Today's Horrible Jobs Report

[mEDITate-OR:
see the pictures and charts, and think that tells U.S. everything we need to know...
OR
read the Atlantic articles by David and Derek, as see true ugliness.
---------
Said David:
There's really no way to spin June's unemployment report:
it's just ugly.
We saw anemic hiring,
more layoffs, and
additional workers who want a job exiting the labor market.
We also saw wages decline.
-----------
Said Derek:
Since March, the number of unemployed people has increased by 545,000!
The share of adults working is at 58.2 percent, lower than any time during the recession!
If job participation were still at 2009 levels, the unemployment rate would be more than 11%!
The U.S. labor force just broke another distinct record: the longest average duration of unemployment ever
---------
While David begins with the first 2 "normal charts" that we see
he then switches to very different views.
in the 3rd chart separating private employment from govt cuts
then in the 4th showing U.S that there are now more of U.S. that want jobs
then in the 5th showing U.S. those giving up are increasing
and in the 6th that while medium range unemployed are decreasing.
both the newly and the oldest unemployed are increasing.
--------
What Derek shows us in his 1st chart is that the AVERAGE length we are now unemployed is at extremely and unseen levels.
and in the 2nd chart that Govt employment was already declining even before/when we were not Hell bent on doing that.
What was bad, is now becoming a national tragedy.
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FRED Graph
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Jobs Stagnant as Unemployment Rate Ticks Up to 9.2% in June
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/07/jobs-stagnant-as-unemployment-rate-ticks-up-to-92-in-june/241608/
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The Worst Part of Today's Horrible Jobs Report
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/07/the-worst-part-of-todays-horrible-jobs-report/241616/
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Americans' Declining Purchasing Power + Credit Cards Stage a Comeback! Time to Worry?

[mEDITate-OR:
not think this is the worst of all possible worlds...
less people working, working less hours, and taking home less income..
and
borrowing more.
-------------
Was there not some advice given to U.S. a while ago...
IF you are falling further into a sinkhole...
try to stop digging.
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Americans' Declining Purchasing Power
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/07/chart-of-the-day-americans-declining-purchasing-power/241650/
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Credit Cards Stage a Comeback! Time to Worry?
Revolving balances jumped 5.1% in May, the most in three years
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/07/credit-cards-stage-a-comeback-time-to-worry/241664/
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On The Margin: Total Unemployment June + Envisioning Employment: Employment Situation June + Full Time Workers Fully Under Pressure + Recovery-less Recovery: Unemployment Duration

[mEDITate-OR:
read how bad it was yesterday, but not SEE how bad it really is....
------------
While reading these four posts by Paper Economy are very informative
these graphs are worth ten thousand - 10,000 - words.
Take the 1st chart - please.
and then remember that we - BLS, you, PE and U.S. - are NOT looking at those who have dropped out of the labor force. Not in this chart.
15 + % of U.S. are out of work, and probably 10 % or more quit looking.
ONE quarter of U.S. are un or under-employed.
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Said they once upon at time:  "Show U.S. the beef!"
The beef is that neither Obama, the Congressional Democrats OR the Congressional Republicans are now willing to actually DO anything to even try to fix this mess.
All seem intent upon making it worse - much worse.
God have mercy on U.S.
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On The Margin: Total Unemployment June
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/07/on-margin-total-unemployment-june-2011.html
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Envisioning Employment: Employment Situation June
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/07/envisioning-employment-employment.html
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Full Time Workers Fully Under Pressure
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/07/full-time-workers-fully-under-pressure.html
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Recovery-less Recovery: Unemployment Duration
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/07/recovery-less-recovery-unemployment.html
==================

Friday, July 8, 2011

DISMAL JOBS REPORT = June jobs report: Hiring slows, unemployment rises

[mEDITate-OR:
be at a total loss to explain why the President does nothing...
on the other hand, maybe we shouldn't even bother to think..., about that.
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DISMAL JOBS REPORT
==========
DISMAL JOBS REPORT
June jobs report: Hiring slows, unemployment rises
http://money.cnn.com/2011/07/08/news/economy/june_jobs_report_unemployment/index.htm?iid=Lead
=============

Thursday, July 7, 2011

July 1st = Unofficial Problem Bank list at 1,003 Institutions and State Stress Level

[mEDITate-OR:
not remember that when they told U.S.
     "Go West, young man!"
They were talking about getting jobs, and rich.
Today, they are talking about foreclosures and bank failures
Of the 10 worst, stressed states, 7 of them are lined up together on the West Coast.
-----------
So, even if NEV has the most foreclosures, and has lost the most home equity.
Washington banks are much worse off than Nev.
What you should also find somewhat surprising is that Utah and Idaho are in the top 10.
So, tis not just the Democratic West Coast states, but R states like them and Az, too.
An indiscriminate disaster.
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Arizona has experienced the most stress with nearly 58 percent of its institutions having failed or being identified as a problem.
The state of Washington is second at 54.6 percent.
the top ten include
Nevada (52 percent)
Oregon (45 percent)
California (40 percent)
Utah (42 percent) and 
Idaho (32 percent).
Thus, the most stressed markets continued to deteriorate over the past six months.
========
Note that below is the CR & Surferdude listing of banks by state that are sortable
and
the main article by Bill@CR.
You should - as in economically and morally - visit both.
Before you start your uncontrollable crying.
=========
Here is the unofficial problem bank list for July 1, 2011.
http://cr4re.com/PBL07012011.html
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Unofficial Problem Bank list at 1,003 Institutions and State Stress Level
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/07/unofficial-problem-bank-list-at-1003.html
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FMac mortgage rates = the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped to 4.69 percent + Increase to Highest Since May + follow Treasury yields higher

[mEDITate-OR:
not know that prices for 10yr TBills collapsed last week...
which drove mortgage interest rates up
and will do so next week too
but, this week TBills prices were up yesterday
and down today, possibly bcuz of the ADP and new jobless claims reports
Tomorrow, is another day.
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Mortgage rates jump, but will an upward trend develop?
The latest data show that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped to 4.69 percent
http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Paper-Economy/2011/0707/Mortgage-rates-jump-but-will-an-upward-trend-develop
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Mortgage rates follow Treasury yields higher
http://www.housingwire.com/2011/07/07/mortgage-rates-follow-treasury-yields-higher
=========

Unemployment: Initial, Continued and Extended Unemployment Claims July 07 + Stubbornly High U.S. Jobless Claims Fall Slightly To 418,000

[mEDITate-OR:
Find the color of the slip on your desk matches the color of your skin.
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How states fared on unemployment benefits
States with the largest declines:
Pennsylvania: Down 4,974, due to fewer layoffs in the transportation, entertainment, and service industries
Puerto Rico: Down 1,332, no reason given
North Carolina: Down 1,316, due to fewer layoffs in the stone, clay, glass, concrete and textile industries, and in education
States with the biggest increases:
New Jersey: Up 6,827, due to layoffs in transportation, warehousing and educational services
California: Up 5,375, due to layoffs in services
Massachusetts: Up 3,816, due to layoffs in the transportation, trade and educational services industries
New York: Up 2,591, due to layoffs in services
Connecticut: Up 2,097, no reason given
Oregon: Up 1,236, due to layoffs in educational services
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Unemployment:
Initial, Continued and Extended Unemployment Claims July 07
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/07/extended-unemployment-initial-continued.html
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Stubbornly High U.S. Jobless Claims Fall Slightly To 418,000
http://www.rttnews.com/ArticleView.aspx?Id=1661083
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ADP National Employment Report: June = U.S. Private Sector Job Growth Far Exceeds Estimates In June = increased by 157,000 in June

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that the huge swings and volitility of ADP
will determine what BLS tells U.S. tomorrow.
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ADP National Employment Report: June
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/07/adp-national-employment-report-june.html
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US private-sector employment increased by 157,000 in June
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1022695.shtml
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U.S. Private Sector Job Growth Far Exceeds Estimates In June
http://www.rttnews.com/Content/AllEconomicNews.aspx?Id=1661111&SM=1
===============

Tuesday, July 5, 2011

Consumer Bankruptcy filings Decrease 8 Percent in First Half of 2011

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that a small decline in BKs means that everyone else is doing just fine, thank you.
----------
Bill@CR is one of the few chart/graph sources that regularly reports the BK filing numbers.
While it is possible for someone to file, and not give up their homes...
it is also possible for them to BK out and stay in the home
not pay anything on their mortgages, and simply wait it out until they are removed.
What is also probable is that they have spent ALL their savings, equity, net worth...
and then, finally, giving up.
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Consumer Bankruptcy filings Decrease 8 Percent in First Half of 2011
===============

On The Stamp: Food Stamp Participation April 2011

[mEDITate-OR:
pretend that they would not starve, without his help...
-------
The paper Economy is one of the few economic blog/chart sources that shows U.S. this.
While the U6 numbers may appear to have peaked...
what they do NOT include are those who have stopped looking for jobs that do not exist.
They, however, still ARE applying for and continuing to use food stamps.
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On The Stamp: Food Stamp Participation April 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/07/on-stamp-food-stamp-participation-april.html
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Schedule for Week of July 3rd

[mEDITate-OR:
see what you want to see, not what is...
and what is not...
-------------
This is CR's pre-view of Things to come.
---------------

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Payroll Jobs per Month
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Schedule for Week of July 3rd
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/07/schedule-for-week-of-july-3rd.html
=============

Some Employment Statistics from CR

[mEDITate-OR:
not remember that we have some "incoming"...
----
CR starts the week with a table showing U.S. precisely where we are.
Later this week, when the weekly jobless report and the monthly jobs created report are out...
CR will show U.S. where we are now.
--------
Guesstimate =
still out there on the "L" shaped lack of recovery.
We will see.
------------
Said CR:
Since December 2007, the U.S. working age civilian population has increased by 6.157 million people - however the number of people saying the are in the labor force has actually declined.
Total nonfarm payrolls are still 6.94 million below the December 2007 level,
and private payrolls are 6.69 million lower.
the U.S. needs 6.94 million jobs, plus some percent of the increase in the labor force, to get back to the 2007 employment situation.
perhaps the most staggering number is the 6.2 million workers who have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more.
--------
Please, note:
That is from two (2) years before the election of Obama.
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Employment Statistics (Thousands or Percent)1
May-11Dec-07Change
Civilian noninstitutional population (16 and over)239,313233,1566,157
Civilian labor force153,693153,936-243
Total nonfarm Payroll131,043137,983-6,940
Private Payroll108,916115,606-6,690
Unemployment Rate9.1%5.0%4.1%
Unemployed13,9147,6646,250
Part-Time for Economic Reasons8,5484,6383,910
Marginally Attached to Labor Force22,2061,395811
Discouraged Workers2822363459
U-6 Unemployment rate315.8%8.8%7.0%
Unemployed for 27 Weeks & over6,2001,3274,873
==========
Some Employment Statistics
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/07/some-employment-statistics.html
=======