Caveat on the use of BLS Jobs Data

[mEDITate-OR:
spare yourself the frustrations of making any real sense out of this BLS, or BS labor, report.
-----
In the Steven Hanson @ Econintersect article below
Steven points out two very significant points:
First, the numbers that everyone was "waiting for" and counting on to tell all of U.S. what is really happen'n..., WILL be revised, again later.
And, when you look at the past "revisions, you TOO will see that the changes incoming are extremely variable.
So, what we see now, will be much different later.
Second, the BLS vs ADP split is very alive and healthy, once again.
Over time, the twain will get close together, but each month...
they are like husbands and wives living on opposite coast.
They MAY love each other, but it is very hard to tell.
----------
And, if you do not see the humour (Can sp) in these BLS, or BS labor, numbers, take a long hard look at these:
In the last MONTH:
The civilian population went up by 172K
The labor force went down by -315K
Those employed went up by 278K
and
Those not IN the labor force went up (ie, down) by 487K
And, those working part time went down by -378K
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Roughly translated:
The only reason that the Participation Rate changed...
was that half a million were "removed" from the labor force.
Statistics always are most interesting, are they not.
The problem is, of course, like with our Rice Krispies, tis very difficult for U to tell when their numbers "snap, crackle or pop"!
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BLS Employment Rises 120,000 in November 2011, Unemployment 8.6%
http://econintersect.com/wordpress/?p=16370
=======

Bill@CRs = November Employment Report: 120,000 Jobs, 8.6% Unemployment Rate + Employment Summary, Part Time Workers, and Unemployed over 26 Weeks + Seasonal Retail Hiring, Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education and Diffusion Indexes

[mEDITate-OR:
miss out on Bill@CRs in depth analysis...
and be worse than an immi-grunt....
stuck doing ALL "The Grunt Work".
------
Below is the blog post from Paper Economy with a very different, and very interesting take on this same data.
Worth comparing them. Go figure!
------
There MAY be something very different this year.
with both Halloween and Christmas selling seasons moved forward...
and much more intense internet sales.
Which raises two questions:
Did the brick and mortal retailers hire more people, and/or earlier?
Did the web sales drain off many more sales from brick & mortar?
CR appears to be the ONLY one following this.
This 1st chart is the "November" chart.
The next one will be VERY telling.
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CR =
November Employment Report: 120,000 Jobs, 8.6% Unemployment Rate
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/november-employment-report-120000-jobs.html
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Employment Summary, Part Time Workers, and Unemployed over 26 Weeks
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/employment-summary-part-time-workers.html
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Seasonal Retail Hiring, Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education and Diffusion Indexes
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/seasonal-retail-hiring-duration-of.html
==========

MBA Reading Rates: Nov = 4.0% = hovered above its record low for a fifth straight week.

[mEDITate-OR:
wonder why there is not apparent economic effects...
---------
Not only is the non-recovery recovery in an "L" shape.
But, now the RE mortgage interest rates are "stuck" 
---------
Question:
When the Fed switched over to buying long term TBills
did they also switch over to pegging the RE mortgage interest rates - alone?
Leaving the rest of the short term bond market to bounce around with "market forces"?
-----
IF they did that, very wise.
Will cost them a ton less money, to do what needs to be done.
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MBA Reading Rates: Nov = 4.0% =
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/11/reading-rates-mba-application-survey_30.html
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hovered above its record low for a fifth straight week.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/30-year-mortgage-averages-4-freddie-mac-2011-12-01?link=MW_latest_news
===========

The Recession Is 4 Years Old, Guess Which Industry Is Suffering the Most?

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that all the pigs are equal...
or that some did not quite get slaughtered much more often than others.
----------
On the fourth anniversary of the downturn,
two industries account for an outsized share of total job losses
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The Recession Is 4 Years Old, 
Guess Which Industry Is Suffering the Most?
ttp://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/12/the-recession-is-4-years-old-guess-which-industry-is-suffering-the-most/249426/
=========

8.6% Unemployment: The Good, the Bad, and the Mysterious in the Jobs Report

[mEDITate-OR:
think that Johnnie Mathis should sing U.S....
"The Twelfth of Never."
---------
Would be 11% only if you still keep using U-3.

If, however, you use U-6, we are..., still, at over 20% un and under employed.

Tis very ugly. No matter how you look at it.

The average corporate board member is now "earning" each year, about what the average worker has earned in the last decade.

The average corporate CEO is now "earning" each year, about what the average worked will earn over their lifetimes.
(Well, tis actually much larger than that, but whose counting?)

In 1984 we learned that all the "pigs" - men? - are equal..., but some are more equal than others.

Which is why it is absolutely necessary for U.S. to keep the very highest tax rates and the "capital" gains rates the same, or better yet to lower them!
{Well, tis for those who benefit the most from them, R candidates raising the money they need to run for re-election!)
[What IS the real money ROI on that political postition?]

Which is also why it is absolutely necessary for the rest of U.S. to try, as best we can, to fully understand, and stop criticizing those who are, clearly, much better than we are:)
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8.6% Unemployment:
The Good, the Bad, and the Mysterious in the Jobs Report
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/12/86-unemployment-the-good-the-bad-and-the-mysterious-in-the-jobs-report/249394/
===========

Phoenix foreclosures drop to lowest level since 2008 + REO investors squeezing out owner-occupants

[mEDITate-OR:
forget that when U elected W, he promised U an "ownership society"...
that was then, this is now.
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Four factoids:
First, both Loss Vegas and Phoenix are still no 1 & 2 for foreclosures.
Second, both Lost Vegas and Phoenix are still no 1 & 2 for price declines this year.
Third, both Lost Vegas and Phoenix have the highest - 1st N 2nd loss of home equity among US.
and Fourth from this chart
Lost Vegas and Phoenix have the lowest "owner occupant buyers" of ALL the worst hit sand states
- with one notable exception, Detroit, Michigan.
-----
Someone once said that you are know by the company you keep.
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The median price paid on Phoenix homes sold in October fell to $120,000,
down 6.8% the year before.
Prices in Phoenix stand 54.6% below the peak in June 2006
when the median price was $264,100.
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Phoenix foreclosures drop to lowest level since 2008
http://www.housingwire.com/2011/12/02/phoenix-foreclosures-drop-to-lowest-level-since-2008
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REO investors squeezing out owner-occupants
http://www.housingwire.com/2011/12/02/reo-investors-squeezing-out-owner-occupants
=======

PE = Envisioning Employment: Situation Nov + Full Time Workers Fully Under Pressure + Recovery-less Recovery: Unemployment Duration + On The Margin: Total Unemployment Nov

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that those that are now forgotten, and left behind...
simply do not matter..., any more.
-------------
True, there may have been 120,000 jobs created
BUT, there were more then 315,000 who stopped looking!
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the median number of weeks unemployed increased to 21.6 weeks
and the average stay on unemployment increased to 40.9 weeks,
the highest level ever recorded.
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Envisioning Employment: Employment Situation November 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/12/envisioning-employment-employment.html
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Full Time Workers Fully Under Pressure: November 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/12/full-time-workers-fully-under-pressure.html
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Recovery-less Recovery: Unemployment Duration November 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/12/recovery-less-recovery-unemployment.html
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On The Margin: Total Unemployment November 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/12/on-margin-total-unemployment-november.html
========

JOBLESS RATE FALLS TO 8.6% = November jobs report: Hiring up, unemployment down = lowest in 2 ½ years, as hiring improves + Jobs growth nice. But show us the money! + Men beat women in scramble for new jobs + Young workers getting hired again

[mEDITate-OR:
not see that when they start with one story very early in the morning
and change it totally a few hours later..
this is a BIG story.
--------
However, it was not reported that something VERY odd is goin'on.
The huge drop in "unemployment" has nothing to do with "Jobs" being created and filled.
Tis all-a-to-do about even more people "dropping off the charts"...!!!
--------
We are still hiding...
where the sun don't shine.
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Two interesting sub-data-sets:
The Mansession is turning around
and
the kids are, now, finally, starting to be hired.
One HAS to ask "Why?"..., "Now?"
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JOBLESS RATE FALLS TO 8.6%
November jobs report: Hiring up, unemployment down
http://money.cnn.com/2011/12/02/news/economy/jobs_report_unemployment/index.htm?iid=Lead
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Men beat women in scramble for new jobs
http://money.cnn.com/2011/12/02/news/economy/men_women_jobs/index.htm
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Jobs growth nice. But show us the money!
http://money.cnn.com/2011/12/02/news/economy/thebuzz/index.htm?iid=HP_LN
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Young workers getting hired again
http://money.cnn.com/2011/12/01/news/economy/young_workers_employment/index.htm?iid=EL
============

Construction Spending increased in October

[mEDITate-OR:
see that this road is very bumpy
---------
comments incoming
----------  Bill@CR's observations

Private residential spending is 65% below the peak in early 2006,

non-residential spending is 32% below the peak in January 2008.

Public construction spending is now 14% below the peak in March 2009.

---------------
On a year-over-year basis, both private residential and non-residential construction spending have turned positive
but public spending is now falling on a year-over-year basis as the stimulus spending ends.
The year-over-year improvements in private non-residential are mostly due to energy spending (power and electric).
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Construction Spending increased in October
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/construction-spending-increased-in.html
============

LPS: Mortgages In Foreclosure Process at an All-Time High

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that taking Ex-lax will cleans (y)our system...
when what remains is SO full of shiites.
---------

LPS reports that a record 4.29% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, up from 4.18% in September, and up from 3.92% in October 2010.

This gives a total of 12.22% delinquent or in foreclosure.

It breaks down as:

• 2.33 million loans less than 90 days delinquent.

• 1.76 million loans 90+ days delinquent.

• 2.21 million loans in foreclosure process.

For a total of 6.30 million loans delinquent or in foreclosure in October.

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LPS: Mortgages In Foreclosure Process at an All-Time High
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/lps-mortgages-in-foreclosure-process-at.html
========

Unemployment: Initial, Continued and Extended Claims Dec 1 + increase to 402,000

[mEDITate-OR:
think that going up three weeks in a row...
does not mean that we are going down.
Well, it does.
---------
comments incoming
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Extended Unemployment:
Initial, Continued and Extended Unemployment Claims December 01, 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/12/extended-unemployment-initial-continued.html
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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 402,000
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims.html
========

ISM Manufacturing Report on Business: Nov = indicates slightly faster expansion in November

[mEDITate-OR:
see that all this Good News is barely that...
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Comment incoming
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ISM Manufacturing Report on Business: November 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/12/ism-manufacturing-report-on-business.html
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ISM Manufacturing index indicates slightly faster expansion in November
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/ism-manufacturing-index-indicates.html
=======

BRICs = Bloody Ridiculous Investment Concepts

[mEDITate-OR:
be both right and very funny
----------

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BRICs = Bloody Ridiculous Investment Concepts
========

BANK OF AMERICA - NEW LOW = stock nearing $5 danger zone + 37 financial institutions downgraded by S&P

[mEDITate-OR:
not see the hand writing on the Wall..., Street Banksters obit..

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Since the acquisitions of Countrywide by BKofA, WAMU by Chase, and Wichovia by Wells, these Big Bad Banks have been bailed out with Trillions of US dollars.While they paid themselves huge salaries and bonuses, it was not enough.

And, unlike China, we did not demand that they loan the GD money back out to U.S.
As the Pretty Woman said:  "Mistake! Big mistake!!"

They also are the largest RE mortgage "originators", "servicer" and foreclosers.

We have been arguing that, much like the land line phone companies, they were "technically" bankrupt.

The problem is not that they will fail, they have already done that. It is that they are about to take U.S. with them.

They are no longer "originating" the number or the quality of RE mortgages that this country MUST have in order to generate the jobs that WE MUST have.

They also have not purged themselves of all of the bad ARMs and subprimes that their bought mortgage cos created, they have not foreclosed on all of them, and they are now discounting the REO sales prices by about US$ 20,000 per home in AZ.

They are paying cash to sell to all cash buyers to raise "cash".

---
That is the Bad News.
The Really Bad News is that the small, community banks, SnLs and CUs that made local construction and commercial loans are in even worse shape

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BANK OF AMERICA - NEW LOW
= stock nearing $5 danger zone
http://money.cnn.com/2011/11/29/markets/bofa_stock/index.htm?iid=Lead
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S&P downgrades dozens of banks
37 financial institutions downgraded by S&P
http://money.cnn.com/2011/11/29/news/companies/bank_ratings_downgrades_sandp/index.htm?iid=EL
========

Philly Fed says, now, that State Coincident Indexes increase in October

[mEDITate-OR:
not remember what "They" were telling U.S. a short time ago...
--------
But, of course, we have no reason to not believe them.
--------
This was "then"...
back when we thought we were in Hell...
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-------------
this was earlier this year...
when we assumed that all pastures were now green...
----------

-----------
this is right now...
when the ?asktards are telling U.S. that tis the times of milk and honey.
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Philly Fed State Coincident Indexes increase in October
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/philly-fed-state-coincident-indexes.html
=======