U.S. Trade Deficit narrowed in Oct to $43.5 billion, the lowest point of the year + As Imports Fall By More Than Exports = shrinks for fourth straight month = Americans bought fewer foreign cars and imported less oil.

[mEDITate-OR:
wonder whether or not we are digging ourselves deeper in debt...
well..., more deeper, then.
---------
Then look at CR's two graphs...
the one much like everyone else's...
and then the REAL one with crude oil separated out.
Oh, you do know, do you not that oil "rises to the top".
{that's not meant as a joke, exactly}
---------
See, though we are still very far down...
things are looking up...!!!
---------

------

--------

======
Trade Deficit declines in October
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/trade-deficit-declines-in-october.html
---------------
U.S. Trade Deficit October 2011: Trade Gap Narrowest In Months
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/12/09/us-trade-deficit-october-2011_n_1138970.html
-----------
U.S. October International Trade in Goods and Services
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-09/u-s-october-international-trade-in-goods-and-services-text-.html
=======

China's Trade Surplus in Oct = SURPLUS, IMPORTS AND EXPORTS ARE DOWN + set for new record this year

[mEDITate-OR:
wonder if China reports the same trade balance with U.S. that U.S.'s do...
-----------
There is not even one (1) chart showing U.S. this month China balance of trade...
in Google..., nor in China's world news.
ugly
-------
That was then, this is now, December 18th
and, finally, China Daily shows U.S. all this...
---------

=========
China's foreign trade set for new record this year
In the first 11 months its foreign trade expanded 23.6 per cent to $3.31 trillion
far exceeding the full-year figure of $2.97 trillion in 2010
http://profit.ndtv.com/News/Article/china-s-foreign-trade-set-for-new-record-this-year-293855
------------
Foreign trade growth slows in Nov., surplus narrows
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2011-12/10/c_131299066.htm
-------------
China's foreign trade growth slows to 17.6% in Nov
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/usa/business/2011-12/10/content_14245171.htm
=========

Canada's Trade Surplus in Oct

[mEDITate-OR:

wonder if CAN sold enough crude oil to U.S. to have a surplus this month.

-------

Canada's trade balance with the world

went from a surplus of C$1.0 billion in September 

to a deficit of C$885 million in October.

---------

the export boom seen in the third quarter did not carry into the fourth quarter

Energy product exports slipped 5..8 percent.

----------

Imports from the United States - by far Canada's largest trading partner - increased by 3.0 percent

while exports fell by 0.9 percent.

The bilateral trade surplus fell to C$3.10 billion in October

from C$4.08 billion in September.

===========

---------

---------

-------------

-----------

Shipping containers pile up on docks in Vancouver, B.C.

A drop in exports meant Canada posted an unexpected trade deficit of $885 million in October

=========
Canada October International Merchandise Trade Report
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-09/canada-october-international-merchandise-trade-report-text-.html
---------------
Canadian international merchandise trade
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/111209/dq111209a-eng.htm
=========

German Exports Decline At Fastest Rate Since April = with looming eurozone recession = southern Europe markets shrink German exports fell 3.6% + French official trade deficit falls to 6.25 billion euros

[mEDITate-OR:
see where Germany can pay for the PIGS...
but wonder how France will do that too...
--------

----------------

============
German Exports Decline At Fastest Rate Since April
German exports post sharpest fall in 6 months, surplus dips
http://www.rttnews.com/Content/AllEconomicNews.aspx?Id=1778226&SM=1
---------------
German exports fell in October
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1023647.shtml
-------------
German exports drop as southern Europe markets shrink
German exports fell 3.6% in October as demand from crisis-hit southern European markets shrank
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16106268
-----------
French official trade deficit falls to 6.25 billion euros
============

Distressed House Sales using Sacramento Data for November + What Shadow Inventory - AZ + Investors Continue To Target Phoenix Real Estate

[mEDITate-OR:
not see that the foreclosure RE markets are VERY different from each other.
---------
Bill@CR has been following Sacramento Cal, to see what the REO trends are.
He might be correct, that market might give U.S. a micro view.
However, what it does not show U.S. is what the micro view is in Loss Vegas or Phoenix.
Nor, with all the held back foreclosures in Florida, what was, is and more importantly what WILL be taking place there.
---------
Below CR's graph are some from Phoenix.
Artur, using Cromfords charts, makes a very good case for the almost disappearance of REO sales in Phoenix.
However, as he notes, the number of "short sales" has increased almost as fast as the REO sales have dropped off. What that might mean is that deeply underwater home owners are FINALLY getting the banks to share in the haircut - a little less loss for the banksters, and a little less loss for the underwater home owners.
What we are also seeing is that "all cash investors" are buying most, if not all of the cheap REOs.
The drop in REO sales is almost equal to the drop in "all cash sales".
What that might mean is that the investors are NOT willing to pay anymore than the absolute minimums.
So, unless the Banksters replenish the supply of cheap homes, those sale will dry up - like the Salt River all year round.
What Artur, and Cromford, and the AZ MLS, and most RE people believe is that THIS Spring the RE market will take off like a White Sands Missile Range Rocket.
They might be correct.
We don't share their optimism, not quite yet.
-------------
Lender owned properties now represent only 9% of the active market
compared to 12.6% last quarter and 19.3% last year.
None the less nearly 30% of the homes that sold were bank owned homes Last month
and last year 47%.
In the 2nd chart the Pending Foreclosures are above 30,000
while the REO sales are around 3,000
And, the pendings do not include those who are merely "delinquent".
Precisely how many "pending REO" home are out there, no body seems to know, for sure.
------------
From AZ delinquency reports we are told that 90+ day numbers are falling.
But, we are also told that the new 30 days late numbers are rising again.
Go figure!
---------

-----------

----------

---------

============
Distressed House Sales using Sacramento Data for November
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/distressed-house-sales-using-sacramento.html
-----------
What Shadow Inventory
+ An Exciting Phoenix Housing Market Review Of Sales In Nov
http://www.phoenixmarkettrends.com/blog/what-shadow-inventory.html
-------
Investors Continue To Target Phoenix Real Estate
http://www.phoenixmarkettrends.com/blog/investors-continue-to-target-phoenix-real-estate.html
===========

CoreLogic: House Price Index declined 1.3% in October + LPS: House Price Index Shows 1.2 Percent decline in September

[mEDITate-OR:
think that the last word is from Case-Shiller...
and then discover more recent news.
-------
What you need to do is compare the two CoreLogic maps
the first is with both foreclosures and "normal" RE sales combined.
the 2nd is with only "normal" RE sales.
Oddly the West Coast is almost solid RED when you do count in foreclosurs.
But, when they are backed out
Nevada and Arizona are still dropping like a rock.
but, the three coastal states are not.
---------
What is even more odd is that there are some other differing RE reports.
---------

-------------

------------

=========
CoreLogic: House Price Index declined 1.3% in October
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/corelogic-house-price-index-declined-13.html
-----------
CoreLogic predicts flat home prices through 2013
http://www.housingwire.com/2011/12/06/corelogic-predicts-flat-home-prices-through-2013
-----------
LPS: House Price Index Shows 1.2 Percent decline in September
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/lps-house-price-index-shows-12-percent.html
------------
September home prices dip 1.2% in LPS home price index
http://www.housingwire.com/2011/12/05/september-home-prices-dip-1-2-in-lps-home-price-index
=========

Paper Economy = Mortgage rates continue to fall = to 4.08 percent = 30-year fixed mortgage rates near record low for sixth week

[mEDITate-OR:
wonder why extremely low interest rates...
do NOT translate into home sales
----------

----------

----------

--------

=======
Paper Economy = Mortgage rates continue to fall = to 4.08 percent
http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Paper-Economy/2011/1207/Mortgage-rates-continue-to-fall
==========

MBA Application Survey – December 07, 2011

[mEDITate-OR:
wonder why extremely low interest rates...
do NOT translate into home sales
or refinancings
-----------

---------

=======
MBA Application Survey – December 07, 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/12/reading-rates-mba-application-survey.html
=========

The Incredible Shrinking Work Force + The Recession Was Sexist (So Is the Recovery)

[mEDITate-OR:
wonder where the men went to...
then where the women went to...
and then see that we really did need an equal rights amendment.
--------
These two very interesting Atlantic articles point out some changes that are not show by the gross numbers.
------

---------

---------

-------------------

==========
The Incredible Shrinking Work Force
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/12/the-incredible-shrinking-work-force/249688/
-----------
 The Recession Was Sexist (So Is the Recovery)
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/12/the-recession-was-sexist-so-is-the-recovery/249646/
=========

On The Stamp: Food Stamp Participation September 2011

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that "what you do to the least of these...."
does not apply to U.S.
----------
But, just as we are now cutting the unemployment insurance coverage for those recently out of a job
we are also slashing the funds and new approvals for FOOD that will be eaten by those totally out of work and money.
Maybe they can have the kids go out in the streets, and beg.
It's been done before.
----------

--------

-------

-------

=========
On The Stamp: Food Stamp Participation September 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/12/on-stamp-food-stamp-participation.html
=========

CRs Comments on the Employment-Population Ratio + Labor Force Participation Rate by Age Group + The Kids are Alright

[mEDITate-OR:
wonder where the kids are....
tonight, and where they think they are going...
without U.S. to help them.
--------
----------

-----------

----------

=========

----------

----------

-----------

----------

=============
CRs Comments on the Employment-Population Ratio
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/comments-on-employment-population-ratio.html
--------------
Labor Force Participation Rate by Age Group
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/labor-force-participation-rate-by-age.html
--------------
Labor Force Participation Rate: The Kids are Alright
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/labor-force-participation-rate-kids-are.html
=============

Household wealth takes biggest hit since '08 + Q3 Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth declines $2.4 Trillion in Q3

[mEDITate-OR:
feel your own pain, but not anyone elses...
------

Household net worth peaked at $66.8 trillion in Q2 2007

and then net worth fell to $50.4 trillion in Q1 2009 

(a loss of $16.4 trillion).

Household net worth was at $57.4 trillion in Q3 2011

(up $7.0 trillion from the trough, but down $2.4 trillion in Q3).

========

-----------

---------

---------

=========
Q3 Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth declines $2.4 Trillion in Q3
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/q3-flow-of-funds-household-net-worth.html
--------
Household wealth takes biggest hit since '08
http://money.cnn.com/2011/12/08/news/economy/household_net_worth/index.htm?iid=HP_LN
==========

Unemployment: Initial, Continued and Extended Unemployment Claims Dec 08

[mEDITEate-OR:
wonder why there are not more jobs...
when those out of work are falling...
-------------

-----------

----------

-------------

------------

==========
Unemployment:
Initial, Continued and Extended Unemployment Claims Dec 08
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/12/extended-unemployment-initial-continued_08.html
-----------
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 381,000
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims_08.html
=========

Gasoline: The new big U.S. export + Toyota to export Camrys to South Korea - from U.S.

[mEDITate-OR:

not hear that sucking feeling...

--------

Many of U.S. do not know, or believe, that the US$ has been devalued.

How else to you explain these stories?

What is also generally not known is the huge amount of refined fuels that U.S. have been exporting to both Canada and Mexico, from whom we buy the most crude oil.

 

They make about US$ 6 Billion a month selling crude to U.S.

and could refine their own supply, if they wanted to do so.

Save them a ton of money.

===========
Gasoline: The new big U.S. export
http://money.cnn.com/2011/12/05/news/economy/gasoline_export/index.htm?iid=HP_LN
--------------
Toyota to export Camrys to South Korea - from U.S.
http://money.cnn.com/2011/12/05/autos/toyota_export_camry/index.htm?iid=HP_LN
============

ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business : Nov = indicates slower expansion in November

[mEDITate-OR:

not see "The Puzzlement"...

--------

According to ADP the only expansion this month was in "services", and not in manufacturing.

However, ISM reported last week that manufacturing has expanded...

and this mourning that services have not.

Someone has this backwards.

---------

-----------

----------------------

==========
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business : Nov
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/12/ism-non-manufacturing-report-on.html
--------------
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index indicates slower expansion in November
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/ism-non-manufacturing-index-indicates.html
=========