Saturday, May 15, 2010

Throwing dirt on a lie that should be dead and buried … but will rise again + Rethinking Fannie and Freddie

[mEDITate-OR:

Do not tell me what is true...
tell U.S. what some people think is true.
That is their own reality.

None are so blind as those who will not see...

-----------

Throwing dirt on a lie that should be dead and buried … but will rise again


However, as an investor, I demand evidence, data and facts. The blame Fannie & Freddie crowd have managed to remain blissfully data free. They have steadfastly ignored all calls for proof.
Its way past the time to call out their intellectual dishonesty. If you cannot show any data, if you cannot prove what you are alleging with actual facts, you need to be called out for what it is you actually are: Proponents of a failed philosophy.”
---------
Tea Party protestors take aim at Fannie and Freddie
--------
Rethinking Fannie and Freddie
Without overhauling the mortgage giants, reform is unlikely
============
Posted by at No comments:

Big banks slashed small business credit lines + $30 billion lending plan for small banks

[mEDITate-OR:
think that they did what they promised U.S. they would do with {Y}OUR money
and
wait for almost two (2) years to address the most serious problem.

True, W didn't address it at all. Helping very BIG banks.
Doing nothing for all the smaller banks.

Obama also did nothing.
Letting FDIC wipe out hundreds of small banks around U.S.
True, they probably all did vote for mcCain't...
"be held responsible for W's mistakes..."

But, how many jobs were and are being lost by there being NO funding for small businesses?

Nobody knows..., but it is far too many.

========
Big banks slashed small business credit lines


The biggest Wall Street banks slashed their small business loan portfolios by 9% between 2008 and 2009, more than double the rate at which they cut their overall lending

Mapping the problem: Just how bad is the small-business credit shortfall? It's impossible to tell, thanks to lax data collection and regulatory reporting requirements.
==========
TARP take 2: $30 billion for small banks
A TARP-free revamp for $30 billion lending plan

small business lending remains a glaring trouble spot -- a critical problem because small companies are traditionally the country's main generator of new jobs. Banks have slashed billions from credit lines, and small firms weakened by the recession are struggling to meet tighter underwriting standards

Banks with assets of less than $1 billion would be able to borrow an amount equal 5% of their assets, and banks worth up to $10 billion would be eligible for an investment of up to 3% of their assets. More than 8,000 of the country's 8,400 banks would be eligible to participate

http://money.cnn.com/2010/05/13/smallbusiness/small_business_lending_plan/
======
Posted by at No comments:

More Americans on the move: why that's a good thing

[mEDITate-OR:
stay stuck where you are..., possibly forever...
American society is "mobile", or we were.
-----
With the RE collapse, we stopped, bcuz we could not sell our homes...
You cannot take a new job in another locations if you cannot see your existing home.
That is serious damage to the whole economy.
True, there were not jobs anyway.
But, as that changes the problem becomes more severe.
-----------
Some other highlights from the Census Bureau's "Geographical Mobility: 2009" report:


• People in the Northeast moved the least, with a mover rate of only 8 percent, followed by the Midwest, 11.6 percent; South, 13.7 percent; and West, 14.8 percent.
• Cities lost 2.1 million movers, while suburbs had a net gain of 2.4 million.
• Renters were more than five times more likely to move than homeowners: 29 percent compared with 5.2 percent.
---------
What this article suggests to U.S. is that we might simply use strategic defaults...
and exit stage left.
---------
AZ 'Mover rate' near a low

The U.S. Census Bureau reported last week that the nationwide "mover rate" rose from a record low 11.9 percent in 2008 to 12.5 percent in 2009.
But that 2009 figure is still an incredibly low rate that hasn't been seen since 1948. The national mover rate was 16 percent in 2000.


United's study shows that the number of people moving to and from Arizona has been steadily declining over the past five years. But the good news is that Arizona consistently sees more United Van Lines shipments coming in than going out. Last year's rate was 54 percent inbound to 46 percent outbound.

The bad news is six other Western states had higher inbound rates: Oregon, 59 percent; Nevada, 57 percent; Wyoming, 56 percent; Idaho and Colorado, 56 percent, and New Mexico, 55.5 percent. California and Utah had almost the same number of people moving in as out, said United Van Lines.
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/2010/05/16/20100516biz-insider0516beard.html
--------
More Americans on the move: why that's a good thing
More Americans moved last year than in 2008
suggesting that the economy is improving.
But the mobility rate is still at historic lows
===========
Posted by at No comments:

Mortgages: Strategic Defaults Are On the Rise + JPMorgan Chase Warns Investors About Underwater Homeowners Walking Away

[mEDITate-OR:
not see the horrible WAMU numbers, buried inside Chase...

----------
JPMorgan's Washington Mutual loans, though, are detailed in the bank's SEC filing --
and they're even worse than JPMorgan mortgages:
The entire {WAMU} portfolio -- $98 billion of unpaid mortgage principal -- is underwater.

And those mortgages are even deeper underwater at the end of this year's first quarter than they were at the end of last year's fourth quarter.
The options ARMs loan-to-value ratio was at 113 percent, meaning they were 13 percent underwater; now they're at 119 percent,

Home equity loans were 15 percent underwater; now they're 20 percent.
Prime mortgages were at 6 percent; they've climbed to 11 percent.
Subprime jumped from 10 percent underwater to 13 percent.
=======
Mortgages: Strategic Defaults Are On the Rise

The first wave of U.S. mortgage defaults was spurred by lenders who made bad loans and borrowers who wound up with larger monthly payments than they could ever hope to manage. Lately, something altogether different has been making an increasing contribution to soured debt: Americans choosing to stop making mortgage payments they actually can afford.

"Strategic" defaults accounted for at least 12 percent of all defaults in February, up from about 4 percent in mid-2007

http://news.yahoo.com/s/bw/20100511/bs_bw/1020b4178045116389
===========
Fitch finds Calif. at both extremes in mortgages
the Bay Area region of San Francisco, San Mateo and Redwood City has a 60-day mortgage delinquency rate of just 4 percent. That was No. 1 among the 382 metropolitan statistical areas tracked by Fitch.


At the other end of the spectrum is the Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario (Riverside) region, at 367th among all U.S. metro areas with a 60-day delinquency rate of 23 percent. Ninety percent of Riverside mortgages are now "underwater," Fitch said, and nearly 60 percent of borrowers owe more than 150 percent of the value of their homes.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100512/ap_on_bi_ge/us_fitch_california_mortgages
=========

Bom dia! And the Morning topic is......

"strategic defaults"

Posted by at No comments:

Of Moral and Material Importance – The Federal Budget

[mEDITate-OR:
wonder where the money is coming from, where it is going...
and who is gonna pick up the tab...

----------------------
Of Moral and Material Importance – The Federal Budget

US Budget Deficit/Surplus as % of GDP -- February 2010
US Treasury Debt Outstanding graph -- February 2010
US Treaury Foreign Held graph -- February 2010
US Treasury Annual Outlays vs. Revenues graph -- February 2010
Outlays as % of Yearly Federal Budget Net Outlays graph -- February 2010
US Jobless Claims graph -- February 2010
===========
Posted by at No comments:

Foreclosures plateau - finally. Repossessions soar + Top 10 mortgage fraud states

[mEDITate-OR:
be unable to read between the lines...
of people walking away from their homes

This "Good News" is in fact very bad news.

Bank/lender foreclosures have been "set", so that they do not flood the RE market.
That "strategic move" by the banks/lenders, has been countered by "strategic defaults"
politely called "repossessions".
They have soared by 45% over last year.
And, are now 1 in 3 foreclosures.

One in four = 1 in 4, homes are underwater = 
Nearly 5 million of those borrowers owe mortgage debt that exceeds their property values by 25% or more.
The total of negative equity in these deeply underwater borrowers is a whopping $655 billion


---------------
Foreclosures plateau - finally. Repossessions soar
-------------
Where does your state rank?
Americans everywhere are feeling the recession's pain – some more than others.
-----------------
States have radical ideas to stop foreclosure

10 Top scam states
The places where mortgage fraud hit hardest.
RankStateFraud index for 2009
1Florida292
2New York217
3California159
4Arizona158
5Michigan136
6Maryland136
7New Jersey135
8Georgia124
9Illinois107
10Virginia103
Source:Mortgage Asset Research Institut
===========
Posted by at No comments:

Home refinancing demand jumps as rates drop + US mortgage rates drop to 5-month low - to 4.93%


[mEDITate-OR:
notice that interest rates did, precisely, what we said they would do last week.

When the stock market collapse occurred, the price of 10 yr TBills went up.
So, the yield on TBills went down, which drove RE interest rates down.

This week the stock market is back up, so we might see the 10 yr TBill prices go back down
and drive the yield back up.

So..., NOW is the time to "lock" your new refi RE loans...!!!

-------------
Home refinancing demand jumps as rates drop
---------

US mortgage rates drop to 5-month low-Freddie Mac

--------
Mortgage Rates on 30-Year U.S. Loans Fall to 4.93%
------
Mortgage rates drop to lowest level this year
=========
Posted by at No comments:

U.S. Home Seizures Reach Record as Recovery Delayed + WA, HAW, Col, StL

[mEDITate-OR:
not realize that "gross" numbers sometimes are not as gross as localized numbers...
or
that the RE foreclosures are quite different in other places.

What was once just the sand states, has now impacted many other parts of the country.
Some not much at all, and others dramatically.

“What we’re really seeing is the effect of lenders slowing down the initial notices of default
while they are processing what’s already in the pipeline.”
“The housing market is still in critical condition but is stable.”

This quote from RealyTrac tells U.S. that not only is it not over
but we are seeing VERY different factors driving the numbers.

---------
U.S. Home Seizures Reach Record as Recovery Delayed
--------
WA State foreclosure activity up in April 40% over March
---------
Hawaii foreclosure filings soar 115% in April
-----
Hawaii foreclosures way up again
April's figure 1474 was the highest this year, after the count reached 1,534 in December...,
more than double the 684 recorded in the same month last year.
---------
Colo. new foreclosure filings up in first quarter
The number of completed foreclosures was up too.
There were 6,686 first-quarter foreclosure sales at auction, up almost 54 percent from last year and up 13 percent from 2008
---------
St. Louis-area foreclosures surge in April. Why?
up 12.6 percent from March and 20.6 percent from April of 2009
-------------
Ill. foreclosure filings jump 38% from 2009
The number of homes hit with foreclosure filings in Illinois spiked 38.3 percent in April from a year earlier and 32.9 percent from March, 
===========
Posted by at No comments:

AZ foreclosures fall by 15% + Local home prices up 5.5% in '10

[mEDITAte-OR:
wishfully think that things were better than they are...


While there may be a slight decline in foreclosures, as banks/lenders decide not to flood the market.
However, the number of short sales has skyrocketed.
The RE market cannot absorb both...!

So, not only are the Banks/lenders getting more money from short sales than they would from a completed foreclosure.., then get the money NOW.

With that Good News..., comes some really Bad News...
the number of strategic defaults has also skyrocketed.
And, with them the banks/lenders do NOT get the money..., sweetee.
While they do save the foreclosure expenses...
they still now "own an empty home".

--------------
Arizona foreclosures fall by 15%
----------
ASU: Local home prices up 5.5% in '10
Townhouses and condos, however, remain in precarious straits
with 1,100 receiving notice of trustee sales in both March and April.
In March 2009 there were fewer than 700 foreclosures notices sent out.
The median price of townhouses and condos was $95,000 in April
as compared with $116,500 in April 2009
-----------


U.S. home prices drop by $25 billion

- Phoenix by 33%

Phoenix was the fourth-hardest hit city on the list
with 33 percent of the listed homes experiencing a price cut.
--------------
Phoenix wages plummeted in 2009
Wages for private-sector workers in the Phoenix area
plummeted 2.4 percent last year 
after rising 3.5 percent in 2008,
----------


Phoenix construction costs drop,

but show signs of stabilizing


--------
==========
Posted by at No comments:

GM wants to re-enter the financing business

[mEDITate:
about taking control of your destiny...

This is not about what is good for the consumer.
This is about using auto financing as part of the overall sales program.

Prior to the collapse, GM made MORE money with their financing program than they made selling their cars.

However, when the price of oil skyrocketed..., they could not sell gas guzzling SUV's and big pickups.
Worse, was the huge number of lease "returns" that came back to bite them.
Much worse was the fact that they simply could not sell "used" gas guzzlers.

They lost a TON of money.

Now, they want it back.

They might get it, too.


-----------
GM wants to re-enter the financing business
Source says automaker looking to buy back unit to compete with rivals
General Motors Co. executives want their own auto-financing arm so they can offer more competitive lease and loan deals, according to a person briefed on their plans.

GM dealers say that since GMAC is responsible for making its bottom line look good, it is less likely to lose money by offering to finance sweet lease deals or zero-percent financing. A GM-owned auto financing business would be more likely to "take a bullet" for the company to sell more cars and trucks

========
Posted by at No comments:

Lessons of Valdez come into play = As oil gushes out, damage claims pour in


[mEDITate-OR:
simply gush over the windfall...

This is both Macro and Micro Economic news:
The Macro is, obviously, the effects on the whole fuel oil economy.
While BP is the obvious target, ALL deep water drilling WILL be effected.
Maybe not immediately, but regulatory changes will affect all of them.

The Micro should also be obvious...
BP has taken a market share hit, how long term is not known.
The Gulf coast economies, especially fishing & tourist, will be hard hit.

While the attorneys will make out/off big time.

----------
Lessons of Valdez come into play for BP spill
Gulf Coast may benefit from more rapid response
 
More than half an inch of oil covered the sea when Dennis Kelso's boat, piled with a few newly dead birds, nudged up against the side of the Exxon Valdez on Friday, March 24, 1989.
---------
As oil gushes out, damage claims pour in
Fishermen, hotel operators and others likely to seek compensation

Even as oil continues to gush out of the damaged Deepwater Horizon drilling rig, many are already vying for compensation from oil company BP.
============
Posted by at No comments:

Distressed Sales: Sacramento as an Example


[mEDITate-OR:
be distressed that you don't know about distressed sales...
 
========
NOTE:
LARGE charts are available for your viewing pleasure @ CR's web site.
============ 
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
The Sacramento Association of REALTORS® is breaking out monthly resales by equity sales (conventional resales), and distressed sales (Short sales and REO sales), and I'm following this series as an example to see mix changes in a distressed area.




The second graph shows the percent of REO, short sales and conventional sales. The percent of short sales is near the high set in December and will probably continue to increase later this year (2010 is the year of the short sale!).



=========
Posted by at No comments:

60 Minutes on Walking Away = Strategic Default


[mEDITate-OR:
know you are popular..., when 60 Minutes covers you in depth.

==========    From:  CR
Monday, May 10, 2010
by CalculatedRisk on 5/10/2010 07:11:00 PM
Here is a 60 Minutes piece on Walking Away, aka 'Strategic Defaults' and as ' Ruthless Defaults' by lenders.

Just a note - anyone considering this should talk to an attorney, and they should also talk with their lender. If it can be arranged, a short sale is much better than a foreclosure for all parties ...
-----------    From CBC = 60 Minutes
Strategic Default: Walking Away from Mortgages
Mortgages: Walking Away
May 9, 2010 4:53 PM
It's estimated that one million Americans walked away from homes "underwater" or worth less than their mortgages even though they could afford the payments. Morley Safer reports on this trend, called strategic default, that threatens the economic recovery.


=======

  • VIDEOMortgages: Walking Away
    It's estimated that one million Americans walked away from homes "underwater" or worth less than their mortgages even though they could afford the payments. Morley Safer reports on this trend, called strategic default, that threatens the economic recovery.
Posted by at No comments:
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)