Mortgage Delinquencies by State: Percent and Number + 5 by 10 states = Before Crisis, Peak and Current

[mEDITate-OR:

not see how low the West Coast and Rocky Mountain states were before the collapse in 07

and then how HIGH they went when they fell.

Late to The Party...

but what a mess there in now.

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As we have regularly pointed out by showing U.S. different charts using the same data

The 1st two charts show severity vs size = percent vs numbers.

In the first chart Nev & Az are near the top in severity, and you have to look, to the far right, for Texas.

In the 2nd chart you DO see Texas with very low foreclosures, but huge late loan numbers.

Something has or is changing

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In the 3rd and 5th charts we something very unusual.

While we all know about the Nev, Cal and AZ sand state collapse caused by bad ARMs and subprime RE loans, what we did NOT expect to see is how LOW foreclosures were back in 2007.

And, that appears to be confirmed with Wa, OR, and Utah in the 3rd chart

and with Idaho in the 4th and Hawaii in the 2nd.

West of the Rockies, foreclosures were few and isolated in 07

Then in 08-9-10 they exploded.

First, in Cal, Nev & Az in 08, then everybody else a year or two later.

Now, while Cal, and Az look to be getting better.

Wa, OR, Id, Utah and Col appear to be getting worse.

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The Far West and the South have been extremely hard hit.

And, the Midwest. But the Northeast has not been, as hard.

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But, for the Far West

they went from very much better...

to very much worse.

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Once again thanks to Bill@CR we can see it clearly now.

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Mortgage Delinquencies by State: Percent and Number
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/mortgage-delinquencies-by-state-percent.html
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Mortgage Delinquencies by State: Before Crisis, Peak and Current
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/mortgage-delinquencies-by-state-before.html
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Mortgage Delinquencies by State: Before Crisis, Peak and Current + 40 states
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/mortgage-delinquencies-by-state-before_20.html
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Foreclosure Sale Discount by State = U.S. Home Foreclosures Account for 28% of All Residential Sales in Q-1 = Foreclosure Sales Centered in Few States, So Why Should We Care?

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that The Problem is in someone else's pocket.
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While these article and charts are based upon the same RealtyTrac numbers
their view of them are quite different.
The 1st REO chart shows U.S. again like the post below that PLSec are still larger than either FMae OR FMac's.
The map from Diana Olrick shows U.S. that the size is very different from the severity of the problem - Cal & Fla are huge, bcuz they are; while Nev & AZ's problem is more severe, if smaller.
And, while Texas is assumed to be the strongest employment growth state, they also have a huge foreclosure problem - much larger than we have been led to believe.
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Daniel@Atlantic shows U.S. that where we assumed the "foreclosure discounts" were, they are not.
However, we simply do not believe that Nev and Az are correct. What they might not be doing is including the full discount from the peak.
As the RealtyTrac table shows U.S. the discounts from last year are not that large in Az & Nev, but the percent of total sales that are REO properties is HUGE.
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What this appears to be evidence of is that "all cash investor buyers" are bottom feeding on the least expensive REO's listed. And, that the banks are feeding listings only as fast as they are being purchased. A "balance of supply and demand" at the very bottom of the RE market.
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Foreclosure Sale Discount by State
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/05/chart-of-the-day-foreclosure-sale-discount-by-state/239517/
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U.S. Home Foreclosures Account for 28% of All Residential Sales in Q-1
http://www.worldpropertychannel.com/us-markets/residential-real-estate-1/us-foreclosure-report-realtytrac-reo-foreclosures-q1-2011-us-foreclosure-sales-report-foreclosure-rates-loan-default-rates-foreclosure-filings-4340.php
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Foreclosure Sales Centered in Few States, So Why Should We Care?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43182211
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CR: The Foreclosure Pipeline + NY Times: The Glut of Foreclosed Homes + Mortgage Delinquencies by Loan Type

[mEDITate-OR:
not see the elly-phlants in the room...
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This week Jim@CR provided U.S. with the most in depth report and charts showing U.S. the size and nature of the "distressed property" problem.
In the 1st chart CR & Tom Lawler show U.S. who hold The Problem in their pockets.
In 08 most of the foreclosures were the bad ARMs and subprime RE loans in the sand states that had gone delinquent - the Countrywide, WAMU, Wichovia and New Century implossion.
Then we see FMae&FMac and then FHA get into The Act.
However, note that as bad as their problem are, the FDIC banks & thrifts AND the PLS problems are still with U.S. and still almost half of The Problem.
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They are not Ba-a-a-ack, they never went away.
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In CR's three charts we see the size of the segments of the mess.
In CR's four graphs we see scope of the prime, subprime, FHA and VA problems.
However, note that while subprimes still appear to be the most severely impacted.
the SIZE of the prime RE loans is now the most serious.
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and with 16+% of U.S. no longer working, this problem is sadly getting worse.
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Single Family REO Inventory: Number of Properties
	Q1 2011	Peak Quarter	Peak
Fannie Mae	153,224	Q3 2010	166,787
Freddie Mac	65,159	Q3 2010	74,897
FHA	68,997	Current quarter	68,997
PLS	171,566	Q3 2008	436,270
Subtotal	458,946	Q3 2008	570,634
Banks & Thrifts	???

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Single Family Activity in Q1 2011
	Freddie	Fannie	FHA	Total
REOs Acquired	24,709	53,549	23,739	101,997
REOs Sold	31,628	62,814	15,581	110,023
Mods and Short Sales1	62,641	78,079	60,0002	200,720

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MBA National Delinquency Survey Loan Count
	Q2 2007	Q1 2011	Change	Seriously Delinquent
Prime	33,916,830	31,897,319	-2,019,511	1,859,614
Subprime	6,204,535	4,180,219	-2,024,316	1,109,848
FHA	3,030,214	6,285,254	3,255,040	511,620
VA	1,096,450	1,366,455	270,005	62,720
Survey Total	44,248,029	43,729,247	-518,782	3,572,679

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CR: The Foreclosure Pipeline
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/foreclosure-pipeline.html
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NY Times: The Glut of Foreclosed Homes
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/ny-times-glut-of-foreclosed-homes.html
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Mortgage Delinquencies by Loan Type
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/mortgage-delinquencies-by-loan-type.html
=======

Seriously Delinquent Homeowners Undermine Hopes of a Market Recovery + April 2011 Existing Home Sales A Mediocre Start to the High Buying Season

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that the problem(s) all went away...
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The 1st two charts and article show U.S. that not only is there a huge supply, possibly as many as a million, of home "occupiers" who are not paying anything on there delinquent mortgages.
These are people who have had an NOD given to them, and are fully IN foreclosure.
This does NOT show U.S. those not yet admitted to the process.
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The 2nd chart shows U.S. something most do not believe - that non-judicial states are as slow as judicial states. While NY and Fla are much slower, just below them are states with the same time frames as the slowest non-judicial states.
Sadly, Fla has just eliminated its Rocket Docket funding, so there time will be dramatically extended.
Which means those NVNP = not vacant, not paying, home "occupants" will get to camp out for a lot longer.
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In the 2nd two charts Keith Jurow shows U.S. how bad existing home sales are.
Like with Jim@CR when you see the monthly sales side by side
you see that we are so far down we can't see how to get back up.
And, what ALL reports now are telling/showing U.S. home prices are double-dipping.
This could be a very ugly year.
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Seriously Delinquent Homeowners Undermine Hopes of a Market Recovery

http://econintersect.com/wordpress/?p=9055&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GEI+5-24-2011&utm_content=GEI+5-24-2011+CID_09f3f015101d4c5f3388baba08b6a5e7&utm_source=Email+marketing+software&utm_term=Housing+Market+Recovery+Undermined+by+Seriously+Deliquent+Homeowners

http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/housing-market-delinquent-homeowners-housing-market/5/23/2011/id/34704?camp=featuredslide&medium=home&from=minyanville

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April 2011 Existing Home Sales A Mediocre Start to the High Buying Season
http://econintersect.com/wordpress/?p=8978
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Unofficial Problem Bank list increases to 997 Institutions + Schedule for Week of May 29th + Summary for Week Ending May 27th

[mEDITate-OR:
see that we are almost there...!!!
hitting a 1000..., finally.
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In addition to CR's Weekly Summary and CR's Schedule for next week
we received the "unofficial problem bank list"
What that shows U.S. is the problem is spreading out
impacting many more smaller banks & CUs
What FDIC is doing is subsidizing the better run banks
to buy the ones in the most trouble.
thereby consolidating the industry and flushing the bad loans.
Can you hear the Fat Lady Sing? And, see the end?
If so, you need to get your hearing & eyes re-examined.
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While CR does not think the jobs will increase, much if at all
they still show U.S. how far below normal we really are.
"there are currently 6.96 million fewer jobs in the U.S.
than when the recession started in 2007."
You cannot cover that up or over - we need jobs. Lots a jobs
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While CR tries to explain/estimate how large the "hidden inventory" really is
they show U.S. once again how low new home sales are
and why the distressing gap simply has not gone away, or gotten better.
This week Jim@CR will make another stab at it.
Pray, for a full recovery.
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Unofficial Problem Bank list increases to 997 Institutions
http://calculatedriskimages.blogspot.com/2011/05/unofficial-problem-bank-list-may-27.html
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Unofficial Problem Bank list increases to 997 Institutions
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/unofficial-problem-bank-list-increases_28.html
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Summary for Week Ending May 27th
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/summary-for-week-ending-may-27th.html
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Schedule for Week of May 29th
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/schedule-for-week-of-may-29th.html
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