Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Drops To Two-Year Low In October + Hiring doesn’t boost confidence any more

[mEDITate-OR:
be like a politician, and not get what The People do...
we ARE in real trouble.
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Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Drops To Two-Year Low In October
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Hiring doesn’t boost confidence any more
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Chart of the Day: Consumer Confidence Drops to Early 2009 Level
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/10/chart-of-the-day-consumer-confidence-drops-to-early-2009-level/247317/
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CR's = Case Shiller: Home Prices increased Seasonally in Aug + Real House Prices and House Price-to-Rent

[mEDITate-OR:

assume that what you see, at first, is all there is to see...

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When we compare the first 2 charts, we see that we have been essentially flat since the 2nd Q of 2009, and that the 5% gain we saw is now gone. We have argued that this is an "L" shaped recovery. These CR charts appear to support that. So, the "end of the recession" simply did not happen - not for jobs, not for housing.

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When we compare the next 2 charts, we see the effects of inflation. Nominally, we might think that we did see an increase in home values, BUT, and this is a big one, when we look at the "real" numbers - both as a pun and as inflation adjusted - we see that we have been falling all the time.

Very starkly, THAT chart shows U.S. that there never was any end to the recession - in housing.

Nada, nyet, Zed, zero - what part of no do they not understand?

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The last chart shows U.S. that while it may BE better now to buy than rent...

what that does NOT show you is:

The Fact that you probably cannot afford to buy

and even if you can, you probably cannot get a loan.

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Significant comments by Bill @ CR
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An update:  Case-Shiller, CoreLogic and others report nominal house prices. 

However it is also useful to look at house prices in real terms (adjusted for inflation), 

as a price-to-rent ratio, and also price-to-income (not shown here).

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The small increase reported by S&P was seasonal.

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In nominal terms, the Case-Shiller National index is back to Q4 2002 levels, the Case-Shiller Composite 20 Index (SA) is back to June 2003 levels, and the CoreLogic index is back to July 2003. 

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In real terms, the National index is back to Q3 1999 levels, the Composite 20 index is back to July 2000, and the CoreLogic index back to June 2000. 

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In real terms - and as a price-to-rent ratio - prices are mostly back to 2000 levels (nationally)

and will probably be back to 1999 levels in the next few months.

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CR's = Case Shiller: Home Prices increased Seasonally in Aug
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/10/case-shiller-home-prices-increased.html
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CR's = Real House Prices and House Price-to-Rent
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/10/real-house-prices-and-house-price-to.html
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After Losing $6.6 Trillion in Value Since 2007 Sales Peak, U.S. Home Prices Are Back to Mid-2003 Levels

[mEDITate-OR:
not see that THIS chart by Bill@Calculated Risk is still among the best...!

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While some headlines are simply wrong, such as the last article from Bloomberg-WA Post
what we should note is that West of the Rockies, with the single exception of Portland
ALL of the rest of the large cities are down, again, this month.

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What CR chart shows U.S. is that Seattle and Portland missed out on the 1st year of the collapse
but they are now still reaching new record lows.
Lost Vegas and Phoenix-in- ashes were early looser, AND they still are suffering major losses.
Very Ugly

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What is also striking is that ONLY Detroit - yes, that Detroit - and WA DC are up this year.
Even Dallas, who thought they would miss out on all the fun, is now reaching, for them, record lows.

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While the blog post below are mainly focused on charts

two very thorough and good "summaries" are listed below

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After Losing $6.6 Trillion in Value Since 2007 Sales Peak
U.S. Home Prices Are Back to Mid-2003 Levels
http://www.worldpropertychannel.com/us-markets/residential-real-estate-1/median-home-prices-spcase-shiller-home-price-index-us-home-prices-10-city-composite-pricing-20-city-composite-case-shiller-index-home-price-report-real-estate-price-trends-4924.php
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Analyst Blog
Home Prices Edge Down in August
http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/63327/Home+Prices+Edge+Down+in+August
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Housing prices in 16 of 20 cities surveyed
show year-over-year improvement
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/housing-prices-in-16-of-20-cities-surveyed-show-year-over-year-improvement/2011/10/25/gIQAoKSkFM_story.html
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FHFA Monthly Home Prices: Aug

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that, much like with NAR's charts and data...
that FMae&FMac's new charts are also suspect
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While they have made some improvements, and may be more accurate than they were
you must remember that FMae&FMac still write over 85% of the RE mortgages for U.S.
(FHA has markedly increased their lending of low down payment RE loans)
The three together are almost the ONLY sources for new AND refinance mortgages.
So, this is what THEY think that they see.
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Unlike Case-Shiller, they see declining prices.
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FHFA Monthly Home Prices: Aug
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/10/fhfa-monthly-home-prices-august-2011.html
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PEs report S&P/Case-Shiller: Aug

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that a simple graph tells U.S. the whole story...
when you KNOW that is not true.

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The first chart from Sold on Top is the one that appears in the Christian Science monitor
and is full of a lot more data than most of the charts - on the net OR in print.

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The second group of three (3) charts (sorry, for those that are "numeric")
first show U.S. how far down we are in total, by city, from the peak values
then show U.S. how far down we in the last year, by city
then show U.S. how far different we are in the latest month
NOTE: that this is a very different view - For EACH city.

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The third group of two charts shows U.S. how LONG we have been down.
This, too, is a very different look at where we are - still.

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So, all the faux noise about where we actually are is terribly misleading.
While some are digging their way back out, most are not.
And, while some did not fall as far as others, they now have serious problems.
And, WEST of the Rocky Mountains is still in a very deep hole.
Even with out a earthquake, tis all still "underwater".

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S&P/Case-Shiller: Aug
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/10/s-august-2011.html
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Case-Shiller Home Prices Improve Slightly in Aug = Average prices where they were in mid-2003 + continuing to decline notably since last year

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that a normal decline in sales, and prices is great news
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But, like with politics, we have to take what we can get,
and pretend that we like it.
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Home prices index increases slightly in August
The non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 price index increased 0.24% since July,
while the Composite-20 index increased 0.15% over the same period
with both measures continuing to decline notably since last year.
http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Paper-Economy/2011/1025/Home-prices-index-increases-slightly-in-August
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Case-Shiller Home Prices Improve Slightly in August 2011
http://econintersect.com/wordpress/?p=14742
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US Home Price Indices: Annual rates of change continue to improve; Average prices where they were in mid-2003
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1023380.shtml
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