Friday, June 18, 2010

Foreclosure crisis hits minorities harder

[mEDITate-OR:
remember that when Bill Clinton was pushing for more minority ownership, he was thinking more about African Americans.
However, when W Bush was pushing for more minority ownership, HE was thinking more about Latino ownership.
= Mexicans in Cal, Nev, Az, Texas..., and Cubans in Florida.
chart_foreclosure_rate.top.gif
African-Americans and Latinos are losing their homes to foreclosure at a higher rate than whites
People who buy new homes tend to be, and become, more conservative.
Hence, W's game plan.
{Latinos did play The Game according to W's rules...
they voted stronger for Obama, the ingrates.}
[who they blame for these foreclosure numbers will have MAJOR impact on the next election]
However, NOTE not only when these RE loans were made = 2005 to 2008
And, WHERE these loans were made - the sand states = Cal, Nev, Fla & AZ

also what KIND of RE loans they were:
The center's research shows that African-American and Latino borrowers were about 30% more likely to get higher-rate subprime loans than white borrowers with similiar risk characteristics.
African-American and Latino communities are likely to lose $373 billion in declining property values between 2009 and 2012.
The report also found that an estimated 2.5 million foreclosures were completed between 2007 and the end of 2009. This is roughly one in every 20 mortgages outstanding at the time of the crisis.
More than eight in 10 of these foreclosures were on owner-occupied homes with mortgage originated between 2005 and 2008.
An estimated 5.7 additional foreclosures are imminent.

Like it or not, that WAS and IS racist.

==============
Foreclosure crisis hits minorities harder
=========

Gold surges to all-time high + RE mortgage interest rates to historic lows

[mEDITate-OR:
not understand that driving UP the price of TBill, and gold, is the fear of risk...
{You do see, do you not, that "the fear of fear itself"
is not the only things we are now afraid of...}

One of the reasons for the sharp decline of RE mortgage interest rates is the panic buying of risk avoidance investments - gold & government guaranteed TBills.

What are they afraid of..., you should not need to ask.
---------------

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=============
Gold surges to all-time high
=========

Homeownership and positive externalities

[mEDITate-OR:
not see the economic value of reducing crime, increasing educational opportunities, and "family values"..., to U.S.

==============
Felix, there are a few "positive externalities" that you forgot to mention: first, while your main focus the economic are very important, they may not be the most significant. As for the economic, you will find from almost all studies of CLT/Affordable housing programs, that their new home owners are much MORE likely to stay current on their mortgage payments, and ALL their other debts. More so than other owners and almost all renters.

But, what is also significant is that new home owners also tend to have less divorces and commit fewer crimes. More important, if they have kids, the kids also commit fewer crimes, do better in school, get more higher education degrees, attend churches and play more community sports.

Not all of course, just as not all crack producers own their crack houses. Please note, most owners of crack houses do not stay long enough to pay off their 30 yr loans.

But, a LOT more new home owners, especially with children, do much better in life & society, by all of {y}our Judeo-Christian family values.
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Homeownership and positive externalities
============

Should the Government Encourage Home Ownership?

[mEDITate-OR:
foolishly think that we made a very bad mistake, with the GI Bill and FHA low down payment RE loans.

=========
Daniel, there are a few "positive externalities" that you & Felix forgot to mention: first, while your main focus the economic are very important, they may not be the most significant. As for the economic, you will find from almost all studies of CLT/Affordable housing programs, that their new home owners are much MORE likely to stay current on their mortgage payments, and ALL their other debts. More so than other owners and almost all renters. Surprising, but true.

But, what is also significant is that new home owners also tend to have less divorces, commit fewer crimes, earn more and stay employed - self & as employee - more. May be far more important, if they have kids, the kids also commit fewer crimes, do better in school, get more higher education degrees, attend churches and play more community sports. They tend to stay out of trouble.

Not all of course, just as not all crack producers own their crack houses. Please note, most owners of crack houses do not stay long enough to pay off their 30 yr loans. So, eliminating those long term RE loans will not affect "those people" as much as the rest of U.S.

But, a LOT more new home owners, especially with children, do much better in life & society, by all of {y}our Judeo-Christian family values. Has that no "economic" value to you, and U.S.?

-------------
Said you, Daniel:
"It would be if there could be no private-label securitization market, or if banks never held non-insured mortgages on their balance sheets."

Said we: Well, Daniel, almost ALL of the non-agency securitized RE loans, and packages of those loans, WERE "insured" - by "credit default swaps". You know the ones, issued by AIG, da BearSterns, Leyman, and a few other undeclared bankrupts.

And, most of the bank/lender BKs, for smaller local banks, now have been and will be for a few more years, caused by "commercial" and construction loans that are NOT Federally insured. What are there now, 700+ small banks on the FDIC "problem" list?

When some of those first non-agency "securitized" subprime and ARM loans went South, there were "calls" on the CDO's that may actually have been met. That didn't last long, did it? What did AIG cost U.S..., US$ 100+ Billion. How much has Bear Stearns cost U.S.? How much has Lehman cost U.S.?



How much is Goldberg still "billing" U.S. in order to to "cover" their/our RE loan losses?

So, let you & U.S. assume, for the moment - we'll pass on the assumption, thanks - that a non-agency/private securitization RE market did exist - you do agree, do you not, that since Jan 08 it has not. How much would it cost U.S. for those new RE loans to be "insured" - whether by CDO's and/or any other means, including increase interest rates, larger downs, or reserves for loan losses? After this RE market and non-agency securitization collapse, how much will THAT "protection" now cost U.S.

As the late night adv oft told U.S.: "But, it'll cost ya..!"
---------------
Said you, Daniel: "Eating spinach has benefits too, yet there aren't tax credits for buying spinach or giant government-sponsored entities that help to subsidize spinach prices."

Said we: Are you VERY sure about that, Daniel?
With all the govt guaranteed price supports: for cotton, oil, tobacco, milk, cheese, and almost everything grown or raised..., we MISSED spinach?

All those govt subsidies were created by U.S. when Popeye was watched by all of U.S. for his loving to eat his spinach..., and Olive Oil, too!!!

MOG, could we have missed out on subsidizing "Olive Oil" too?

And, you do know, do you not, that in many states buying spinach is exempt from the retail sales tax? So, we STILL are being encouraged to eat our spinach !!!

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Should the Government Encourage Home Ownership?
===========

Could We Have Prevented Widespread Mortgage Fraud?

[mEDITate-OR:
not see the size of the tunnel, bcuz of the light...in/on it.
Daniel, we could not agree with you more. As you of course know the SEC exists to provide/require not only information for U.S., but to enforce disclosure AND to prosecute fraud. One of the major problems with Non-Agency "securitized packages" of RE loans was that they did NOT disclose - hence the lawsuits - by the SEC, some borrowers, AND by investor/purchasors.

My only problem with this article, and it is the 2nd problem with non-agency securitzed RE loans which is, as you know, that they created US$ 2.5 Trillion subprime and ARM loans over a four year period 04-07. That little problem is One Thousand (1,000) times larger than the US$ 2 Billion problem you are writing about.

While it is also true that US$ 2 Billion in fraud is only what they have FILED upon so far, what is also true is that IF subprimes and ARMs were badly made loans, this fraud made them a lot worse. And, please note, almost ALL of this fraud was by the originator/lenders, not the originatee/the borrows. Normally, It takes two to tango - here only one side can create fraud both ways - against lenders and borrowers.

But, as you rightly point out, the regulations that DID exist should have been, and were not being, enforced. And, if the appropriate regulations did NOT exist, we owe it to ourselves, literally and figuratively, to adopt them, asap.

-------------
Daniel, there are two aspect of these filings that you might not be aware of: first, these are only "charges". Since these are "white collar" crimes, most will probably be plea bargained down. However, in order to GET a plea bargain, they may be required "to talk", about who above them, and who else, was party to the fraud. That may expand the size of the criminal forum.

Second, simply the act of filing against these accused defendants, may cause others - both victims and other perps, those already suspected and many still unknown - to come forward. Why other perps...? Bcuz if they cut a deal BEFORE the charges are even filed against them, they may be able to obtain greatly reduced sentences, and even not have any charges ever filed at all. Motivated sellers - of information.

-----------
Could We Have Prevented Widespread Mortgage Fraud?
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/06/could-we-have-prevented-widespread-mortgage-fraud/58370/
=========

New jobless claims take surprise jump = "L" shaped recovery

[mEDITate-OR; 
not see that it it is not getting better...

Jobless claims up, home sales heading back down - a lot.
This is not only a jobless recovery, it might not BE a recovery.

Sleep tight, and don't let the BEDouins bite.
------------
New jobless claims take surprise jump
Claims rise to highest level in a month, showing hiring remains spotty

The number of people filing new claims for jobless benefits jumped last week after three straight declines, another sign that hiring remains weak.
===========
Consumer prices drop for 2nd straight month
Biggest decline since prices plunged 0.7 percent in December 2008

Consumer prices fell for the second straight month, extending a break for Americans' pocketbooks. Less expensive energy bills were the main factor pulling down prices.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37749643/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/from/ET
============
Wholesale prices fall for second straight month
Absence of inflationary pressure means Fed can keep rates low
Wholesale prices fell for a second straight month in May, the first time that has happened in a year, reflecting big declines in the cost of energy and food.
===========

The dollar's strong (but not the one you think)

[mEDITate-OR:
follow the North Star, and not know where it leads U.S...

True, not only does Canada have gold, which is at historic highs...
but it has more nickel than Russia, Cuba & the rest of the world combined...
{you can NOT fight a war, with bullets, without nickel}

And, while we export US$ 4+ billion a month to Canada for oil...
{Mexico gets US$ 3+ and Venezuela gets US$ 2+ billion a month...}

Canada has "natural gas" and the only "land" route from the North Slope to U.S.


And, Canada did not have any Bank/lender subprime or ARM loan problems with RE.
============
The dollar's strong (but not the one you think)

chart_ws_currency_cad_usd.top.png

The Canadian dollar has rallied sharply against the U.S. greenback over the past year thanks to a boom in commodities and stronger recovery signs

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- There has been a lot of talk lately about how strong the dollar is. But if you're looking for a real strong dollar, just gaze north.
Sure, the greenback has done great against the euro. But that's not saying much. The U.S. dollar is still a proverbial 97-pound weakling compared to the Canadian dollar.
===========

Thursday, June 17, 2010

Mortgage rates up from yearly low

[mEDITate-OR:
swing up and down, with impunity, to the value of the EURO...
 
While the RE mortgage rates hover at record lows...
the prices of homes, after the buyer tax credit expired...
have dropped in almost all markets.
 
Now, buyers are finding that they can buy a home for effectively less than they could before the expirations.
Bcuz, sellers, who needed to sell, but could not..., are now dropping their prices.
 
----------
Mortgage rates up from yearly low
National average for a 30-year fixed loan dips slightly to 4.75 percent
 
Rates on 30-year fixed mortgages backed off from yearly lows this week, but still remain historically cheap.
=========
Mortgage applications rise nearly 18 percent
Applications to refinance home loans were up 21 percent

The number of customers applying for mortgages jumped last week, a sign that the market could be stabilizing after dropping off sharply last month.
==========

New jobless claims take surprise jump + Consumer prices - Wholesale prices - drop for 2nd straight month

[mEDItate-OR:
think that everything has gotten better, in every way, every day...
 
Even if you HAVE lost your job, now you can feed your family...
assuming they are still with you...
for less.

These three reports/chart are NOT good news.

We are, in fact, falling back into a recession/depression.

Congress has decided that U.S. cannot afford to assist you, any more.

"Let them eat cake!!"..., it's now cheaper than it was.

------------
New jobless claims take surprise jump
Claims rise to highest level in a month, showing hiring remains spotty
 
 
The number of people filing new claims for jobless benefits jumped last week after three straight declines, another sign that hiring remains weak.
===========
Consumer prices drop for 2nd straight month
Biggest decline since prices plunged 0.7 percent in December 2008

Consumer prices fell for the second straight month, extending a break for Americans' pocketbooks. Less expensive energy bills were the main factor pulling down prices.
 
============
Wholesale prices fall for second straight month
Absence of inflationary pressure means Fed can keep rates low
 
Wholesale prices fell for a second straight month in May, the first time that has happened in a year, reflecting big declines in the cost of energy and food.
===========

Dollar extends slide against euro

[mEDITate-OR:
not bother asking why the stock market goes up, a lot
when the dollar falls against the EURO.

However, your cheep trip to France may no longer be available.
However, there should still be some cheep wine here.

-----------
---------------
dollar.png
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Dollar extends slide against euro
=======

Arizona home builders buying up land once again VS Is a housing shortage coming?

[mEDITate-OR:
misconstrue what this really means..., to Arid-zone-Ah-eons and U.S.

What Catherine reported to U.S. a few weeks ago was that new home builders were buying, using and then selling fully completed lots to home buyers using the Buyers Tax Credit. But, that the cost of "land" was a fraction of the peak prices.

Now, what we are seeing is that bcuz they are "flush" with cash...
lots of new home sales
AND
a Federal tax "rebate" that allows them to write off all of their losses over the last few years against their even more distant past and current profits.

So..., they are now "land banking".

Buying completely ready lots at fire sale prices.

Does this mean that they see a missive increase in home sales...
nyet, nada, zed, zero..., are you kidding.

=============
Arizona home builders buying up land once again
Builders buying empty parcels for development as housing industry regroups


Metro Phoenix's home-building market
Home-building permits
604 issued in April 2010
622 issued in April 2009
5,294 issued in April 2005
Home-building permits issued in the first four months of the year
2,964 issued through April 2010
1,561 home-building permits issued through April 2009
Home-building permits
8,500: Projection for home-building permits in 2010
8,027 home-building permits issued in 2009
64,000 home-building permits issued in 2005.

===========
Is a housing shortage coming?
==========

Rates on Treasurys hit lowest level since January

[mEDITate-OR:
fall on your knees, in awe and shock...

This chart is very good news..., for RE interest rates.

However, it also suggests that we - you and U.S. - are even more in flux than we thought we were.

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Rates on Treasurys hit lowest level since January
----------
Treasurys fall as euro gains
bonds.png
===========

Did we dodge a bullet on commercial real estate? Maybe or no way...

[mEDITate-OR:
are we begging the question.

This week there was issued only the 2nd package of CommercialMBS's this year.
If you look at the chart of CMBS delinquencies, you will think you see why.

You do not.


For two reasons.
First, what we need to know is what KIND of CRE loans those are...
If they REFIs, then we need to know if they are delay and deny loans being rolled over
OR
whether they truly ARE modifications of prior loans with the write downs being fully taken.

Or, whether they are NEW, original CRE loans.
bcuz if they are then they are packages of CRE properties bought at highly marked down price.
and/or they are very high grade CRE properties.

As the comment to the Seattle Times 1st article points out to U.S.:
A total of $602 billion were written between 2005 and 2007 -- 
49 percent of all such securities issued over the past 20 years

Almost all of those loans are 5 year balloon CREs, which MUST be
paid off, rolled over, or foreclosed upon between 2010 and 2012.

Why are Banks/lenders so willing to roll these CRE loans over:

For perhaps a third of our local and regional banks, dealing with their existing non-performing CRE loans (never mind those that are headed for trouble) would result in overnight insolvency -- thus their desperate measures to prolong their lives are understandable

"Extend and pretend" is, in fact, really "delay and pray".

===============

Sound Economy with Jon Talton

Veteran financial journalist Jon Talton blogs daily on the most important economic news, trends and issues involving Seattle and the Northwest. Read his regular column every other Sunday in the Seattle Times.
------------
Did we dodge a bullet on commercial real estate? Maybe or no way...
============

Council Pushes Loan-Modification Disclosure

Commercial Mortgage Alert
===========



Builders Rush to Complete Houses by U.S. Tax Credit Deadline + What tax credit did for market

[mEDITate_OR:
miss two major perversions in the RE markets...

First, we see the massive increase in TEMPORARY construction employment, to finish off the Buyer Tax Credit homes.

Second, we are now seeing a massive decrease in the price of homes that were not sold.

-------------
"Now that the tax credit is over, we are seeing record price reductions" by sellers

"These price reductions are three to four times more than the tax credit" - $8,000 for qualified first-time buyers; $6,500 maximum for some repeat buyers.

Buyers who waited until after the tax-credit deadline might gain from these reductions.

Sellers who held out for higher prices while the tax credits were in place are much more willing to negotiate now or lower their prices.

"We are seeing hundreds of 5 percent to 20 percent price reductions,"

"The buyers who waited until now may get the best deals of all."
=======
Builders Rush to Complete Houses by U.S. Tax Credit Deadline

Phoenix Real Estate Pending Sales Near Record Levels.

[mEDITate-OR:
not see that this really IS significant...
why are pending sales greater now than in 2005

This first chart is stunning.
Pending sales are, now, higher than during the peak years...!!!

True, prices are depressed buy 50 to 60 %
but, there ARE buyers and there ARE sellers.

True, there has been a massive shift from low priced foreclosures
towards short sales for mid & higher priced homes.
But, the RE market is VERY active.

If you can sell you current home for the best price you can get...
and then buy the best home you can find at the best price you can get...
you CAN make a LOT of money.

===============
Phoenix Real Estate Pending Sales Near Record Levels
Over 14,000 homes are under contract and awaiting to close, 
a number surpassed only one month ago at 15,131.
pending home sales in phoenix, az
Pending home sales are a very good indicator of what's coming in the near future: pending sales are contracts in escrow that are not yet closed.  Just about a month ago the Phoenix market hit a peak of pending residential sales at 15,131.  That was right before the tax credit deadline.
Even now, nearing the end of My we are near record levels for Pending numbers, well over 14,000.  This is much higher then ever and certainly more then the span of the chart above which begins in 2001.
What you need to know is that the market is very active and any good inventory is moving quite fast into new hands leaving a steady 4-5 month supply of active properties: rather balanced.  If there is a nice home that matches your needs and want plus it's priced properly then don't wait to put in an offer as it is likely that soon someone else will. 
This time of year and for about another month is the busiest each year: the seasonal peak.
============
ARMLS stands for Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service.

CHARTS AVAILABLE:
View the number of Residential (Class 1) listings added monthly or view sales activity charted by Average List/Sales Price and Median List/Sales Price. These charts cover years 2001 - 2009.
===========

Mortgage rates are near all-time low

[mEDITate-OR:
wonder why we are not buying a lot'a new homes, or gett'n a REFI...

Actually, it is even more interesting than that.
Home prices in almost every state are falling, AFTER the end of the Buyer Tax Credit.

Why?
Bcuz, if you did not sell your home with all those incentives, you are not going to - at your selling price.

So..., what we are NOW seeing is that prices are falling - to the point that SOME buyers in SOME markets, can buy a home for less than they could UNDER the buyer tax credit.
Go figure???

So, now, with the lower prices AND lower mortgage rates...!!!
IF you need to buy, you CAN find some really great bargains.

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Mortgage rates for June 9, 2010
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alt text
==============
Mortgage rates are near all-time low
=============
Freddie Mac: Mortgage rates hit low for year
============
Yahoo! News
Refis Tough But Tempting With Rate Dip

Federal budget deficit grows at slower pace in May + streak at 20 months = $135.9 Billion

[mEDITate-OR:
not realize that you're up to your neck in do-do...

Here's the problem...
Housing has tanked
employment has tanked
state & local employment has tanked

They did improve health care, but did NOT solve the exploding cost problems

But, not just, like FDR, what we are about to do is CUT Federal spending...
by cutting state and local govt transfer payments
AND
by cutting medicare & medicaid reimbursements to the states.
As "trickle down economics" proved to U.S., all Shiites run down hill.

But, quitting, before the job's job was done, we have now created another Great Depression - stage two.

Instead of it getting better..., it will, now, get a great deal worse.

Nobody ever got rich betting against the stupidity of {y}our neo-RonnieR's-conservatives.

==========
U.S. NATIONAL DEBT CLOCK
The Outstanding Public Debt as of 11 Jun 2010 at 11:39:24 AM GMT is:

$ 1 3 , 0 5 2 , 5 8 1 , 6 2 2 , 0 8 2 . 9 6
The estimated population of the United States is 308,540,320
so each citizen's share of this debt is 
$42,304.30.

The National Debt has continued to increase an average of $4.10 billion per day since September 28, 2007!
=============
Federal budget deficit grows at slower pace in May
 

Chart shows the monthly federal budget deficit
==========
Bloomberg
Treasury May Budget Deficit in U.S. at $135.9 Billion
=============

China reports May export surge but European debt crisis likely to hurt trade recovery

[mEDITate-OR:
not find three very good reports on China's trade...
from Canada.
NOT from U.S.
plus two more that you should read.

Europe is NOW far more important to China's current economic situation than we are.

However, as "they" tell U.S. -- be very careful what you ask for.

-----------
Chart showing China's trade surplus, at 19.5 billion dollars ...
=============
China trade surplus soars in May on export boom
-------------
China reports May export surge but
European debt crisis likely to hurt trade recovery
The 27-country European Union is China's biggest trading partner and Beijing is closely following Europe's debt problems, which are expected to hurt consumer spending.
Exports to Europe were up 34.4 per cent in May from a year earlier while those to the United States rose 24.8 per cent.
China's politically sensitive trade surplus with the United States was $16.7 billion.
------------
Chinese exports leap putting yuan back under microscope
--------------
Experts: EU debt crisis unlikely to shake up Chinese economy
============

US monthly international trade deficit increased slightly in April 2010 to $40.3bn

[mEDITate-OR:
find the fact that FinFacts in Ireland has a better news report than any of U.S. gets.

However, you DO need to look at FinFacts' third chart.

What that shows U.S. is that from April 08 to 09 the trade deficit was declining, as our economy collapsed.
AND
that since April 09 we are dropping into debt, again..., larger each month.
----------------

Exports Declined as U.S. Trade Gap Widened in April

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/11/business/economy/11econ.html?src=busln

=============
US monthly international trade deficit increased slightly in April 2010 to $40.3bn
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1019894.shtml




---------------

=============

Without tax credit, home demand keeps slumping + application volume falls 12.2 pct

[mEDITate-OR:
sink, a lot lower, and not understand why...

-------------
Overall mortgage application volume falls 12.2 pct
--------------
Without tax credit, home demand keeps slumping
------------------
Buyer Fatigue Grips the Housing Market

Buyer Fatigue Grips the Housing Market

Mortgage Purchase Applications Continue to Plummet
Mortgage purchases sunk for the 5th-straight week to a level not seen since early 1997
Mortgage applications from purchases continued to fall last week by another 5.7%
They're down an amazing 42.4% since the credit expired at the end of April. 
===============