China says it tops Japan as No. 2 economy + Investing in the world's best balance sheets

[mEDITate-OR:

think that the Rising Sun ain't rising no mo'

Bcuz, while Japan did shrink last year, in the last few months it has been expanding, again.

Far more important is the obvious fact that China has grown by Great Leaps Forward, and out of most bounds. While we founder in the doldrums, their ship is riding high, heading out into the world, and loaded with "Goodies" for U.S. and the Europeans.

However, they/China would like U.S. to get our House in order, so we c/w/should buy more "stuff" from them.
=============

========
China says it tops Japan as No. 2 economy
http://money.cnn.com/2010/07/30/news/international/china_japan_economy/index.htm
==========
Investing in the world's best balance sheets
http://money.cnn.com/2010/07/28/pf/emerging_markets_debt.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2010072909
=========

U.S. recovery sputters + Consumers not spending like drunken sailors + Obama's consumer confidence problem

[mEDITate-OR:

or miss the CNN trifecta...

What CNN is showing U.S. is that the reason we are not spending like drunken sailors is that we are caught in the doldrums..., and are not going anywhere.

Not falling where we cannot get up, is good.

Falling a little bit more each year for years, is not good.

Like those who have taken too many antibiotics, and now they don't work for you anymore...

We appear to think we have taken too many "economic stimulants", and don't what to take them anymore.

This is NOT good.

That is exactly the same mistake FDR made in the middle of the Great Depression - he quit doing beneficial things FAR to early. IF we make THAT mistake we will pay for it for decades - maybe, if China continues, forever.

Much too ugly.

More than it should be.

==============

------------

----------

============
U.S. recovery sputters
http://money.cnn.com/2010/07/30/news/economy/gdp/index.htm?postversion=2010073012
--------------
Consumers not spending like drunken sailors
http://money.cnn.com/2010/07/30/markets/thebuzz/index.htm
-----------
Obama's consumer confidence problem;
American consumers are looking at Washington, and they don't like what they see 
http://wallstreet.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2010/07/30/obamas-consumer-confidence-problem/
============

Don’t Give the Tax Credit Too Much Credit + Or not enough

[mEDITate-OR:

hold your piece...

==========

JGBHimself Mesa, Az July 28th, 2010 4:22 pm

Prof Casey @ the bat: what simple-ton-of statistics are YOU looking at?

Prior to the First Time Home Buyers tax credit, and after the collapse of Wall Streets "securitizations" - mis-named? - home loans, FMae&FMac were issuing over 85% of all the RE home loans to U.S. @ 20% down.

Under the two tax credit programs over 80% of all the programs RE loans were issued by FHA as low down payment (3%) Federally insured RE loans to brand NEW home buyers. EXPEDITED = ?, PERSPECTIVE-indicted = "to charge with a fault or offense : criticize, accuse".

Have YOU ever heard a RE agent tell you that you better make an offer, bcuz there are so many "pending offers" that you might not get the house? And you think that all those non-lookieloos did NOT have any impact on the RE market? What planet are you from? The Twilight Zone planet with "The Cook(ed) Book(s)"?

In AZ we saw a huge increase in new home construction, in REO listings AND in upper priced home listings - ALL testing the market. Casey, the dog DID bark.

For you to even TRY to compare the non-existent RE market of today, to the very interesting RE market created by the tax credit programS, is like comparing an affair with being married - you are comparing sour apples with cherries. (Or, something like that.)

---------------

JGBHimself Mesa, Az July 28th, 2010 5:32 pm

Let's let our hair hang down:

Said you: "That’s why I expect little, if any, housing price reduction after the credit expires."

Said we: In AZ immediately prior to the expiration, we had the largest number of the largest sized listing price reductions anywhere in U.S. New home builders, "underwater" home owners AND people who needed to move to find/get a new job, tried to "buy" a buyer.

Immediately AFTER the expiration, we in AZ had an even larger number of even larger listing price reductions! The "effective" sales price AFTER the tax credit program is lower than under it. Those who would have LIKED to sell, but could not, are withdrawing from the RE market = the quitters !!!. Those who NEED to sell, are now even more desperately trying to "buy" a buyer.

IF you compare AZ with Cal, Nev and Fla, you WILL see that AZ is better off than they are. True, the least expensive/costs homes appear to have bottomed out. BUTT, of the joke, the more expensive homes are dropping like a rock!

IF you believe that housing prices will not fall, drastically, farther; you are dumber than the brick that will fall on your head - Res ipsa loquitur.

----------

JGBHimself Mesa, Az July 28th, 2010 7:01 pm

Prof Casey, are you giving/showing U.S. a "mulligan":

Said you: "the $19 billion in first-time home buyer tax credits amounts to about one-tenth of 1 percent"

Said we: There is little or no condo financing, and hasn't been for over two years. Similarly, Jumbo RE loans. Foreclosures and short sales AND strategic defaults have been over 50% of the total RE market, and not just in the sand states.

So permit/forgive U.S. to ask THIS "nice" - what we call them in the law - question: "What percentage of all non-distressed "closed" RE transactions, over the last six (6) month - aka, this year - were tax credit generated?

PPPsss: Are you REALLY still @ the UofChicanery Econ Dept? MOG, how jealous ARE "Those People" like you, with all those Govt jobs going to that GD Harvard, and "can't even wag their tail" Yale? If/since you voted for Obama, are YOU ever Chicago pizza-ed!

==========
Don’t Give the Tax Credit Too Much Credit
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/07/28/dont-give-the-tax-credit-too-much-credit/
========

Debating the Securitization of Mortgages

[mEDITate-OR:

not remember that in college we were a "master debater"...

{or something like that}

===========

JGBHimself  Mesa, Az  July 28th, 2010  2:10 pm

Rather that take an "argumentative" position, what our dear Prof/Mr. Ed, aka The Glaseser, has shown U.S. is that he is an even handed economist. Having participated in espousing both sides, he assumes that both have some, if not equal, merit. MOG, would would we DO without "on the other hand" economists like him. (and, no, that is not a question)

What Prof/Mr Ed forgot to mention - why we do not know - was/is the established fact that Wall Street's securitization machine, prior to 04 when they were getting started packaged almost exclusively prime RE mortgages, and AFTER 04 through 07 when they imploded packaged their RE mortgages consisting of almost 75% subprime & ARM loans. The packages prior to 04 were rated exactly the same as the packages AFTER 04. Why? Who did that? How much DID they make off U.S. in those sweetheart deals?

Mr Ed..., talk to U.S., and tell U.S. for once The Truth about what did, and should not have, happened.

Prof Ed, you remind me of a law school prof, an obnoxious immigrant from Texas - yes, we do know that is redundant - who announced that we were "Flat Out Wrong", but when we pointed out to him that HIS assumed facts were not in fact the facts of the case; and that IF we applied The Law of the case to The Facts of the real case presented we appeared to be correct, replied: "You have a good point." Like you?, he went on to rape & pillage someone else.

Oh, and Mr Ed, on balance, your article was a lot better than most. You're welcome.

-----------

JGBHimself  Mesa, Az  July 28th, 2010 2:50 pm

Prof Ed, please let me clarify something.

When we pointed out the fact that The Securitization Machine switched from prime to subprime & ARM loans, we did not mention for your benefit: a) those were the "dead" years, aka the "underwater years", 02 to 07; b) most were made in the sand states = Cal, Nev, Fla & AZ; c) most were made by Countrywide/BoA, WAMU/Chase, Wichovia/Wells and New Century/BK; d) the largest "servicers" banks of both non-agency securitized packages AND FMae&FMac RE loans are those same three Big Bailed Out Banks; e) as in a failing grade, almost 80% of those same bad RE loans are now in default status = multi-months behind in payments, strategic defaults and/or foreclosures - completed & pending.

In the last two years more than 50% of ALL foreclosures of U.S., AND more than 50% of all "underwater" RE loans, have been/are in those same sand states, and of those same bad RE loans. 

During those "dead years", Wall Street issued over 50% of ALL of the RE loans made to U.S. as "private" securitiztion packages. When they collapsed in Jan 08, FMae&FMac then issued 85+% of all RE loans to U.S. In July 08 your President - W, The (aka, your) Republican - "nationalized" both FMae&FMac.  What's up with that?

Today, FHA, not be confused with FMaeOrFMac, issued over 80% of RE loans to the first time home buyers under the Buyers Tax Credit programS - as low down payment Federally insured loans.

What you actually got, is not what you think you see. (or something like that)

============

Debating the Securitization of Mortgages
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/07/27/debating-the-securitization-of-mortgages/?src=busln#preview
=========

Halfway through 2010, the Year of the Short Sale Hits Some Serious Snags

[mEDITate-OR:
think all the Pigs are equal...
Not only is Miami full of vice..., but they are down the tubes, too.
However, what "They" are NOT telling U.S. is that while most of the bad loans were made IN Miami, they were NOT made in Los Angeles. Near there, yes; IN there, no.
------------

----------

===========
Halfway through 2010
the Year of the Short Sale Hits Some Serious Snags
http://www.housingwire.com/2010/07/07/halfway-through-2010-the-year-of-the-short-sale-hits-some-serious-snags
============

Case-Shiller, deja vu

[mEDITate-OR:
like to see all that money being made in real estate...

The first chart is a different way to look at Case-Shiller this month.

The second chart is a different way to express your political opinion.
Like it, even if it is flat out wrong.
---------

--------

==========

Falling Home Sales: Are There Just Too Many Houses Out There?

[mEDITate-OR:
think that Kit has lost it..., bcuz he taint...

These are two more "argumentative" charts, by Kit Menkin.
What he is trying to tell U.S. is that we built too many homes...
then the unemployment, then the foreclosures, then everything stopped.

IF Kit is not too Far Right (pun intended)
we might be waiting 10 years for this oversupply to be sold off.
----------

------------

----------

-------------

===========
Falling Home Sales:
Are There Just Too Many Houses Out There?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/216541-falling-home-sales-are-there-just-too-many-houses-out-there?source=email
============

Household Net Worth: Back to the 'Old Normal'

[mEDITate-OR:
value yourself at what you are really worth...

as opposed to what you would like to think you are...

This is an "argumentative" chart...
probably true, but...
What it suggests/argues is that we are not in Kansas anymore...
and have fallen back to earth.
---------------

===========
Household Net Worth: Back to the 'Old Normal'
http://seekingalpha.com/article/216616-household-net-worth-back-to-the-old-normal?source=email
==========

May 2010 S&P/Case-Shiller: Government-Sponsored Boost Continues

[mEDITate-OR:

not know where to start looking...

This is a VERY good article about the new Case-Shiller report for May.
The charts are quite different than most, and also are very interesting.
------
Remember: like CR, go to the article for the LARGE version of the charts.
-----

-----------

--------

--------

-----

----------

============
May 2010 S&P/Case-Shiller:
Government-Sponsored Boost Continues
http://seekingalpha.com/article/216691-may-2010-s-p-case-shiller-government-sponsored-boost-continues
===========

New Home Sales: Worst June on Record

[mEDITate-OR:

not even know how pessimistic you ought -

morally, economically, politically, legally, and mentally...

to be..., or not to be....

that is the question.

We did think that WE were The Real Pessimist...

little did we know...!!!

--------------

The first graph shows monthly new home sales (NSA - Not Seasonally Adjusted).

Note the Red columns for 2010.

In June 2010, 30 thousand new homes were sold (NSA).

This is a new record low for June.

The previous record low for the month of June was 34 thousand in 1982

-----------

The second graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions for the last 47 years.

---------------

And another long term graph - this one for New Home Months of Supply.

------------

The final graph shows new home inventory. 

=============

Monday, July 26, 2010

New Home Sales: Worst June on Record

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/07/new-home-sales-worst-june-on-record.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculated+Risk%29
============

New home sales Jump From Record Low + Climb More Than Forecast - the second-lowest since 1963

[mEDITate-OR:

not see the differences in The Charts...

depending on the years covered.

What many of the analyst are pointing out, however, is that each of the last three months reported numbers have been reduced - some three times. So, UP from reduced numbers, especially if this number will also be reduced, does not accurately tell U.S. what we need to know.

----------------

------------

----------

--------

-------------

============

New Home Sales Jump From Record Low

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=128771665

==========
June Sales of U.S. New Homes Climb More Than Forecast

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-26/sales-of-u-s-new-houses-climb-to-330-000-more-than-economists-forecasts.html

=========

US sales of new single-family houses rose in June

but were at the second-lowest since 1963

http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1020230.shtml
===========

The Finfacts Guinness Pint Index = The ratio of the price of pint to average earnings

[mEDITate-OR:
wonder what these FinFacts quotes have to do with economics...
well, as RonnieR used to say to U.S., so do we...
butt, of the joke is, that we like them, along with Guinness.
----------

The Finfacts Guinness Pint Index The ratio of the price of pint to average earnings

"Believe those who search for truth. Doubt those who claim to have found it" - - André Gide (1869 -1951) Nobel Laureate in Literature 1947 "Error repeats itself endlessly in deeds. Therefore, we must repeat the truth tirelessly in words" - - Johann Wolfgang von Goethe (1749 -1832) German writer "I have observed that the world has suffered far less from ignorance than from pretensions to knowledge. It is not skeptics or explorers but fanatics and ideologues who menace decency and progress. No agnostic ever burned anyone at the stake or tortured a pagan, a heretic, or an unbeliever" - - Daniel Boorstin (1914 - 2004) American social historian "Five score years ago, a great American, in whose symbolic shadow we stand today, signed the Emancipation Proclamation. This momentous decree came as a great beacon light of hope to millions of Negro slaves who had been seared in the flames of withering injustice. It came as a joyous daybreak to end the long night of their captivity. But one hundred years later, the Negro still is not free. One hundred years later, the life of the Negro is still sadly crippled by the manacles of segregation and the chains of discrimination. One hundred years later, the Negro lives on a lonely island of poverty in the midst of a vast ocean of material prosperity. One hundred years later, the Negro is still languished in the corners of American society and finds himself an exile in his own land" - - Martin Luther King, Jr. (1929 – 1968), speaking at the Lincoln Memorial, Washington DC 1963 "If there is anyone out there who still doubts that America is a place where all things are possible; who still wonders if the dream of our founders is alive in our time; who still questions the power of our democracy, tonight is your answer" - - President-Elect Barack Obama, Election Night Tuesday, November 4th, 2008, Grant Field, Chicago “The scene was sickening and all the Irish were there, most of them vying with each other in eagerness to plunder the public purse,” William Ewart Gladstone, British Chancellor of the Exchequer, in an 1859 letter to his wife concerning a House of Commons debate, on the cancellation of a subsidy for the mail steam-packet service between Galway, Ireland and America. Gladstone was facing a budget deficit of £5m. Engaged in felling a tree at his home in Wales, in 1868, Gladstone remarked on receiving a telegram advising of the planned arrival of an emissary from the Queen, "very significant."  About to become prime minister for the first of four periods, he then remarked to an aide:"My mission is to pacify Ireland." Of the 51 men and one woman, who have occupied 10 Downing Street, Gladstone ranks with Tony Blair for the extent of attention given to the "Irish Question."

==========

Impact of long-term unemployment: Lost income, lost friends, loss of self-respect and depression + Economic insecurity in the US is at its highest in 25 years

[mEDITate-OR:

drink Guinness until the cows come home..., or [y]our sheep...

This first article is written by the founder of FinFacts, which we have found to be an exceptional source for both informative articles, but also very good charts, like those below.

We ask, again: "Why are these economic articles about U.S. being written in Ireland, and not inside U.S.?"

Disirregardless, even, you, too, might, permissive, like to read & learn about the views of the founder of this very good web site.

Besides, these are VERY interesting articles, you NEED to read.
-----------

------------

==============

Impact of long-term unemployment:

Lost income, lost friends, loss of self-respect and depression

http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1020225.shtml

===========

Economic insecurity in the US is at its highest in 25 years

http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1020216.shtml
===========

Existing Home Sales: Still above historical median

[mEDITAate-OR:
not see beyond the monthly numbers...

These charts by Jim@CR show U.S. how the years look.
What Jim is saying is that in spite of the problems with financing - with the 02-07 shift to non-agency securitization and back to the post 08 shift to 85+% FMae&FMac, the national level of home sales has remains surprisingly constant.
---------
The first graph shows existing home sales on an annual basis, and end of year inventory. For 2010, sales are estimated at 5.0 million units and year end inventory at 3.4 million units (currently 4.0 million in June, but inventory will decline seasonally).

----------
The second graph shows the same information normalized by the number of owner occupied units.

=============
Existing Home Sales: Still above historical median

by CalculatedRisk on 7/23/2010 05:11:00 PM

It might be a little surprising, but existing home sales are still above the historical median level of the last 40 years as a percent of owner occupied units.
=========