Good Grief Graph Friday: The international wealth gap = the W years

[mEDITate-OR;

not see that you been had....

-------------    Your worth Before W and After W

Before - only the Swiss were above U.S.

After - France, Sweden, Autralia, Norway AND the Swiss are above U.S.

and, Italy and England are fast catching up.

------------    the end of W (and your jobs) to the new beginning of O

 ------------    what W gave to all of U.S.

 

------

--------    How big W's sinkhole is

-------------    Proof of who..., did what..., to you !!!

==========

Good Grief Graph Friday:
The international wealth gap = the W years
http://lifeinc.todayshow.com/_news/2010/10/15/5295665-good-graph-friday-the-international-wealth-gap
===========

Good Grief Graph Friday: The rich got richer

[mEDITate-OR:

--------------
Tax Data Show Richest 1 Percent Took a Hit in 2008
But Income Remained Highly Concentrated at the Top
Recent Gains of Bottom 90 Percent Wiped Out
---------

------------
High Concentration Persists at the Very Top
--------

TABLE 1: Average Income Gains, Adjusted for Inflation
	Income Gain During Expansion (2002 to 2007)		Loss During First Year of Recession (2007 to 2008)		Change Since Beginning of Expansion (2002 to 2008)
Bottom 90 percent	$1,250	4%	-$2,420	-7%	- $1,170	-4%
Top 1 percent	$541,140	62%	-$279,200	-20%	$261,930	30%
Top 0.01 percent	$20,072,720	123%	-$9,045,980	-25%	$11,026,750	68%
Note: In 2008, the bottom 90 percent of households were those with incomes below about $110,000. The top 1 percent were those with incomes above about $370,000, and the top 0.01 percent were those with incomes above about $9,140,000. Calculations are in current 2008 dollars.

--------
Longer-Term Trends in Income Concentration
==========
Good Grief Graph Friday: The rich got richer
http://lifeinc.todayshow.com/_news/2010/10/22/5335866-good-graph-friday-the-rich-got-richer-
----------
Tax Data Show Richest 1 Percent Took a Hit in 2008

But Income Remained Highly Concentrated at the Top

Recent Gains of Bottom 90 Percent Wiped Out

http://www.cbpp.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=view&id=3309
========

2nd Clear Capital Report - Early Seasonal Slowdown as U.S. Home Prices Decline and Weaker Markets Head for Big Chill

[mEDITate-OR:
still think that "Go West...!"
makes any economic sense...

Not only is the West suffering increased/worse unemployment...
but, if this report is correct, RE tis gonna get a lot worse.
Note: Tucson & Phoenix are 3 and 5
AND: Portland & Seattle are now 6 and 7
MOG.
----------
"With the effects of the recession still being felt by home buyers and sellers, the lack of demand is causing strong markets to lose their upward momentum, while sending weak markets into double dip territory.
National prices are still 10 percent above their 2009 lows, so the risk of new record lows this year remains small."
------------
Report highlights include:
National / Four Region Overview: Nationally, quarter-over-quarter home prices dip into negative territory (-0.2%). All four regions did retain their year-over-year price gains, but this slowdown appears likely to mark an early onset to the typically weaker markets of fall and winter.
Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) drilldown: A home pricing slowdown was broadly felt even among the highest performing major markets, as quarterly price gains deteriorated in fourteen of the fifteen markets compared to last month's report. All 15 of the lowest performing major markets experienced negative quarterly price changes for the first time since June. REO saturation rates in these lowest performing markets are rising, up 2.9 percentage points on average over last month's report.
Micro Market Analysis: After large price declines between 2006 and 2009, the Providence, R.I. MSA has rebounded to enjoy a 9.7 percent increase in home prices this year. Cranston (ZIP 02920) outperformed the rest of this MSA, experiencing a 13.2 percent gain in home prices, while Warwick (ZIP 02886) experienced a -20.7 
percent price change, making it the worst performing market in the area.
==========

--------------

-----------
All Markets Back in Negative Territory
All 15 markets on this list experienced a negative quarter-over-quarter price change for the first time since June's report.
REO saturation moved upward in these markets, rising 2.9 percentage points on average over last month's report.
Tucson and Phoenix, Ariz., Atlanta, Ga., and Las Vegas, Nev. once again remained among the top ten lowest performing markets, and continue to face large (on average 44%) and growing (up 4.0% on average from last month) REO saturation rates.
California markets dropped from the lowest performing major markets list, not due to great performance, rather the dismal price changes in markets outside the West.
With the growing number of markets now showing a downturn in home prices, REO saturation is moving upward as well. In markets where REO saturation influences are returning, prices are likely to suffer disproportionately from the national trend in upcoming months—possibly pushing these markets into double-dip territory.
============
Clear Capital Reports Early Seasonal Slowdown
as U.S. Home Prices Decline and Weaker Markets Head for Big Chill
http://www.clearcapital.com/company/MarketReport.cfm?month=October&year=2010
========

The War of the Worlds has begun

[mEDITate-OR:
not only not see, but not even understand...
how currency changes have moved U.S. over the last year

Below are some charts - the first two show U.S. the EURO and Can over the last three months.
Note - China has not change, being pegged to U.S.
However, what we see is that both the EURO and CAN - and most other currencies
have gone up as we devalued our currency to increase our exports.

However, look at the next three (3) charts showing U.S. this last years movements.

Note, that while Canada has bounced widely, but up, some.
Then NOTE that the EURO dropped drastically due to the "Greek crisis", scaring the Hell out of them and U.S. too!!!

Now, look at Japan.  Up, and up, and UP...!!!

While some of U.S..., with China..., have been on a roller coaster
Japan has been priced out of the world's markets.

What we are now doing is insisting that China, and the rest of the world, allow U.S. do devalue our dollar to accomplish OUR economic objectives - and INTO their markets
while THEY get priced out of OUR markets.

Oddly, nobody but U.S. likes having U.S. "do it" to them.
------------

--------------

==============

------------

--------------

=========

Real earnings fall 0.1 percent in September - Consumer Prices rise 1.1% in September 2010

[mEDITate-OR:
that you, too, are falling behind...
Déjà vu..., all over again...
---------

--------------

===========
Real earnings fall 0.1 percent in September
http://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2010/ted_20101020.htm
------------
Consumer Prices rise 1.1% in September 2010
http://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2010/ted_20101019.htm
==========

Report: 1.2 Million Workers could lose Unemployment Benefits next month

[mEDITate-OR:

feel a little bit like "Bob" Cratchit

while the rest of U.S. get into the Christmas spirit...

and the least of these get into the Christmas "spirits".

-------------

============
Report: 1.2 Million Workers could lose Unemployment Benefits next month
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/report-12-million-workers-could-lose.html
=========

State Unemployment Rates in September: "Little changed" from August

------------

----------
Regional and state unemployment rates were little changed in September. Twenty-three states and the District of Columbia recorded unemployment rate decreases, 11 states registered rate increases, and 16 states had no rate change, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
In September, Nevada’s unemployment rate held at 14.4 percent, again the highest among the states. The states with the next highest rates were Michigan, 13.0 percent, and California, 12.4 percent. North Dakota continued to register the lowest jobless rate, 3.7 percent, followed by South Dakota and Nebraska, at 4.4 and 4.6 percent, respectively.
===========
State Unemployment Rates in September: "Little changed" from August
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/state-unemployment-rates-in-september.html
=========

Clear CapitalTM Reports Sudden and Dramatic Drop in U.S. Home Prices = Shows a Two-Month 5.9% Price Decline a Magnitude and Speed of Decline Not Seen Since Mar 09

[mEDITate-OR:
try to remember how to swim when everyone around you is sinking...
As this shows U.S. Clear Capital repeat sales index is tracking with Case-Shiller
but is about 3 months ahead of them in reporting numbers.

Disirregardless, this is NOT very good news.
In AZ this is also showing, bcuz post tax credit listings prices are being cut
larger and more of them than while the credit was available.
This suggests that these off-peak Winter sales will continue going down.
-------------
First Index Report for October Shows a Two-Month 5.9% Price Decline Representing a Magnitude and Speed of Decline Not Seen Since March 2009; Similar Declines Expected to Appear in Other Industry Indices in Coming Months
---------

===========
Clear Capital: "Sudden and Dramatic Drop in U.S. Home Prices"
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/clear-capital-sudden-and-dramatic-drop.html
-------
Market Alert: Clear Capital^TM Reports Sudden and Dramatic Drop in U.S. Home Prices
http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Market-Alert-Clear-Capital-Reports-Sudden-and-Dramatic-Drop-in-US-Home-Prices-1339566.htm
=========

Hotel Performance: RevPAR up 9.4% compared to same week in 2009

[mEDITate-OR:
not know whether this is commercial or temporary housing...
What we DO know is that in the hotel industry they are still hurting very bad.
What we are not seeing is any significant recovery.
Again, an "L" shaped jobless recovery.
--------
On a 4-week basis, occupancy is up 7.9% compared to last year (the worst year since the Great Depression) and 6.1% below the median for 2000 through 2007.
The occupancy rate is about at the levels of 2008, but RevPAR is still down 7.8%.
-------

==========
Hotel Performance: RevPAR up 9.4% compared to same week in 2009
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/hotel-performance-revpar-up-94-compared.html
===========

FHFA Projections for Fannie and Freddie draws, and House Price Assumptions

[mEDITate-OR:
not notice a very significant observations by Jim @ CR...

He predicting a second decline, based on Case-Shiller and Corelogic
both very good source of RE info
and that the total peak-to-trough of 36%, or more.

We have NOT bottomed out, we WILL see further RE price declines
and this is not over.
Not as severe as it could be, but, still, a "L" shaped recovery
and we have NOT reached the bottom, yet.
-----------
The key to the size of future draws is the trajectory of house prices.
The following graph shows the three house projections used by the FHFA:
Stronger Near-term Recovery = The peak to-trough decline is 31%.
Current Baseline = a 34% peak-to-trough decline.
Deeper Second Recession = The peak-to-trough decline is 45%. 
-------------
My current projection is for further house price declines of 5% to 10%, as measured by the Case-Shiller and Corelogic repeat sales indexes.
That would put the peak-to-trough decline around 36% or so.
----------

-----------
My current projection is for further house price declines of 5% to 10%, as measured by the Case-Shiller and Corelogic repeat sales indexes. That would put the peak-to-trough decline around 36% or so. So my guess is somewhere between scenarios 2 & 3.
---------

--------
My guess is the draw will be somewhat over scenario 2, but well below the FHFA's scenario 3.
=======
FHFA Projections for Fannie and Freddie draws
and House Price Assumptions
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/fhfa-projections-for-fannie-and-freddie.html
===========

Top 5 Graphs of the Week: China Economic Outlook = what they did right that we did not

[mEDITate-OR:
miss seeing the large changes in China during the collapse for U.S.
The 1st chart shows U.S. that when we caught a cold in 07 so did China
The 2nd chart shows U.S. that retail sales in China have more than doubled
but if it had not been for the six month at the end of 08 it would have tripled
or even quadrupled - in FIVE (5) years!
The 3rd chart shows U.S. two things:
First, China made large increases in lending and spending at the end of 08.
when our job layoffs peaked, they took economic action, immediately
Second, unlike U.S. the forced their banks to actually MAKE loans.
We bailed out GM & Chrysler and AIG, and then the Big Banks
what we did NOT do is require the Big Bad Banks to lend funds to U.S.
As Pretty Woman was oft heard to say:
      "Mistake.  Big mistake."
--------------

---------------

------------

==============
Top 5 Graphs of the Week: China Economic Outlook
http://econgrapher.blogspot.com/2010/10/top-5-economics-graphs-of-week-23.html
==============

Demographics of the self-employed

[mEDITate-OR:
not see that men are more outgoing than women
and that the young don't know what they are doing, yet.
and that the more educated the more "incorporated" you are.
and wonder why that is.
-----------
In 2009, self-employment rates were higher for men than women.
--------------
In 2009, self-employment rates for older workers continued to be higher than those for younger workers.
Among the unincorporated, self-employment rates ranged from 1.6 percent for those aged 16 to 19 years to 18.1 percent for those aged 65 years and older. Among the incorporated, self-employment rates ranged from 0.1 percent for those aged 16 to 19 years to 7.7 percent for those aged 65 years and older.
---------------

============
Demographics of the self-employed
http://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/
==========

Wells Fargo: the least bad big bank + Wells Fargo on Foreclosures: "Procedures sound, no moratorium"

[mEDITate-OR:

not see that Wells is, well, different.

(sorry)

As many pointed out early in the RE crisis, Wells never did make very many bad Alt-A, ARMs or subprime RE loans.

They have always been very careful

Wichovia was an unusual mistake for them to make.

--------

-------------

--------------
BofA (Countrywide) and JPM Chase (WaMu) have the highest combined delinquency and foreclosure rates.
BofA is the largest servicer with over 14 million loans ($2.2 trillion) at the end of Q2.
Wells Fargo is second with about 12 million loans ($1.8 trillion), and
JPM Chase is third with about 9.5 million loans ($1.35 trillion).
=======
Wells Fargo: the least bad big bank
Wells Fargo is looking like the best horse in the big-bank glue factory, judging by one measure of its apparent exposure to souring mortgages.
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2010/10/20/wells-fargo-the-least-bad-big-bank/
-----------
Wells Fargo on Foreclosures: "Procedures sound, no moratorium"
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/wells-fargo-on-foreclosures-procedures.html
======

Coffee perks up = Is something brewing in coffee futures?

[mEDITate-OR:
not see what is - socially, economically, legally and ethically - wrong with U.S.

This is too despicable for words.
Just LOOK at this chart!!!
--------

===
Coffee perks up = Is something brewing in coffee futures?
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2010/10/21/coffee-perks-up/
=====

AZ posts first over-the-year job growth in 30 months + Nonfarm Employment Up Over the Year By a Modest 0.5%; Unemployment Rate Unchanged at 9.7%

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that we are not still digging.
However, tis clear that the massive layoff may have stopped.
Where the growth will come from to rehire all those unemployed and about to enter the jobs markets is not at all clear.
Take what we can get, and come back for more
------------
The AZ state report has many more interesting charts available.
=========

===========
AZ Nonfarm Employment Up Over the Year By a Modest 0.5%; Unemployment Rate Unchanged at 9.7%
http://www.workforce.az.gov/admin/uploadedPublications/PrOct10.pdf
-----------
AZ posts first over-the-year job growth in 30 months
http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/2010/10/21/20101021biz-jobs1022-ONL.html
----------
Number of employed Arizonans higher than a year ago
http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/arizona/article_1b7f7f48-dd66-11df-bb8f-001cc4c002e0.html
========

Commercial Property Prices Continue to Slump

[mEDITate-OR:

----------

============
Commercial Property Prices Continue to Slump

===========

The Irresponsibility of Law Schools or We forgot to kill off all the lawyers

[mEDITate-OR:
not see how ill literate we have become...
while "They" appear to be breeding like Playboy bunnies...

So, instead of Shake-ing our Speare's at "Them"...

This is The End of U.S..., as if we "knew it"..., in the Biblical Sense.

-----------

-----------

=============
The Irresponsibility of Law Schools
http://balkin.blogspot.com/2010/10/irresponsibility-of-law-schools.html
=======

Happy World Statistics Day = Hello fellow numbers nerds. It’s 10-20-2010

[mEDITate-OR:
not see the correlation between CatherineR and me...
(sadly, she probably doesn't either)
So..., if you, too, do not, fully, understand "Why we are here"...
you, too, might be interested in what MsC and we are reading.
as if you care, to understand.
that we numbers nerds have no, with any significance, sense of humour.
------------

------------
October 20, 2010, 3:46 PM

Happy World Statistics Day

and a Reading List

By CATHERINE RAMPELL
Hello fellow numbers nerds. It’s 10-20-2010, which means it’s the first official World Statistics Day.
In honor of the holiday, here are a few good reads on fun with numbers, probabilities and uncertainty:

1. “The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives,” by Leonard Mlodinow
2. “Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets,” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
3. “How to Lie with Statistics,” by Darrell Huff
4. “Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk,” by Peter L. Bernstein
5. The online statistics portal from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
6. Calculated Risk, a blog on daily economic indicators and other interesting data releases
7. Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science, a blog by Andrew Gelman, a statistics and political science professor at Columbia
8. FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver’s New York Times blog on political statistics and modeling
9. Carl Bialik, The Wall Street Journal’s “Numbers Guy“
10. Flowing Data, links to interesting data visualizations from around the Web
11. This xkcd cartoon

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/20/happy-world-statistics-day-and-a-reading-list/
==========

Housing Starts and the Unemployment Rate

[mEDITate-OR:

not only not see the correlation...

but the significance of the lag time.

This CR chart is unique to CR, and very good.

So..., let Jim tell you what you are seeing

and

what he sees that it means - for U.S.

---------

You can see both the correlation and the lag. The lag is usually about 12 to 18 months, with peak correlation at a lag of 16 months for single unit starts. The 2001 recession was a business investment led recession, and the pattern didn't hold.

Housing starts (blue) rebounded a little last year,and then moved sideways for some time, before declining again in May.

-----------

However this time, with the huge overhang of existing housing units, this key sector isn't participating. Earlier today, NY Fed President William Dudley said the NY Fed's estimate was that "there are roughly 3 million vacant housing units more than usual". If that estimate is correct (I think it is too high), then it would take several years of housing starts at the current level, combined with more normal household growth, to eliminate the excess supply.

-------

=========
Housing Starts and the Unemployment Rate
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/housing-starts-and-unemployment-rate.html
===========

WSJ: Here come the GSE Put-Backs = Regulator for Fannie Set to Get Litigious

[mEDITate-OR:
miss out on all the "legal" vs "ill-legal" action(s)...
Below are three takes on what the newly filed class action means.
As Jim @CR suggests, the third one, by Naked Capitalism, is the most interesting.
Enjoy, your reading.
----------------
The GSEs have a huge advantage over other investors because the FHFA can issue subpoenas. The article mentions estimates that the banks could face put-backs ranging from $24 billion to as high as $179 billion.
============
WSJ: Here come the GSE Put-Backs
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/wsj-here-come-gse-put-backs.html
------------
Regulator for Fannie Set to Get Litigious
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304011604575564631414300418.html
-------
More on Why the PIMCO, BlackRock, Freddie, NY Fed Letter to Countrywide on Putbacks Is Way Overhyped
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/10/more-on-why-the-pimco-blackrock-freddie-ny-fed-letter-to-countrywide-on-putbacks-is-way-overhyped.html
==========

Moody's: Commercial Real Prices fall to 2002 Levels

[mEDITate-OR:
not add "quality" to location, location...
Like most foreclosure statistics, there are very large differences between the sand states and the rest of U.S.
Now, we see that there is a vertical separation between the quality of commercial RE properties. The very good, are now worth a lot more. The middle class is getting squeezed, and the lower classes are being driven from the market, and into BKs & foreclosure.
-------------

"The commercial real estate market in the U.S. has become trifurcated with prices rising for performing trophy assets located in major markets, falling sharply for distressed assets, and remaining essentially flat for smaller healthy properties," - Housing Wire.

-------------

=========
Moody's: Commercial Real Prices fall to 2002 Levels
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/moodys-commercial-real-prices-fall-to.html
=====

Housing Starts increase in September

[mEDITate-OR:
miss the increase in multi-unit construction vs single family homes.

Multi's are always more volatile, due to the lag times getting started and getting completed. True, track homes are not dissimilar in "rolling" construction schedules, but single family homes are simply easier to stop.
One might ask if the increase in multi's is based on there being more renters, now.
Here in AZ that does not appear to be the case. Many who lost or gave back their homes are able to rent an almost identical home for much less. Those who do not, tend to rent higher priced & larger apartments. Do both markets are skewed and screwed.
-------------

Total housing starts were at 610 thousand (SAAR) in September, up 0.3% from the revised August rate of 608 thousand (revised up from 598 thousand), and up 28% from the all time record low in April 2009 of 477 thousand (the lowest level since the Census Bureau began tracking housing starts in 1959). 

------------

The second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968. This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and that housing starts have mostly been moving sideways for almost two years - with a slight up and down over the last six months due to the home buyer tax credit.

------------
Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 610,000. This is 0.3 percent (±10.3%)* above the revised August estimate of 608,000 and is 4.1 percent (±12.0%)* above the September 2009 rate of 586,000.
Single-family housing starts in September were at a rate of 452,000; this is 4.4 percent (±13.9%)* above the revised August figure of 433,000.
Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 539,000. This is 5.6 percent (±1.4%) below the revised August rate of 571,000 and is 10.9 percent (±2.3%) below the September 2009 estimate of 605,000.
Single-family authorizations in September were at a rate of 405,000; this is 0.5 percent (±1.3%)* above the revised August figure of 403,000.
=============
Housing Starts increase in September
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/housing-starts-increase-in-september.html
===========

Wells Fargo on Foreclosures: "Procedures sound, no moratorium"

[mEDITate-OR:
not see that Wells is, oh well's..., different.
(sorry)
As many pointed out early in the RE crisis, Wells never did make very many bad Alt-A, ARMs or subprime RE loans. They have always been very careful

Wichovia was an unusual mistake for them to make.

----------

The... delinquency and foreclosure rates for the large servicers.





BofA (Countrywide) and JPM Chase (WaMu) have the highest combined delinquency and foreclosure rates.
BofA is the largest servicer with over 14 million loans ($2.2 trillion) at the end of Q2.
Wells Fargo is second with about 12 million loans ($1.8 trillion), and
JPM Chase is third with about 9.5 million loans ($1.35 trillion).
==========
Wells Fargo on Foreclosures: "Procedures sound, no moratorium"
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/wells-fargo-on-foreclosures-procedures.html
=========