Research Desk responds: Is unemployment insurance stimulative?

[mEDITate-OR:

insist on believing what you want to believe...

in spite of the fact that it is not true.

In this very interesting article Ezra Klein take a very good look at the economic impact of both given unemployment insurance benefits, and to extending them.

Based upon what he has learned for U.S. he makes two observations:

1.

So far, then, unemployment benefits have been very effective at stimulating the economy and reducing economic misery among affected families.

2.

Extending benefits, then, appears to be the economically smart thing to do...

So..., take (y)our/this medicine..., whether you like it or not.

----------

======
Research Desk responds: Is unemployment insurance stimulative?
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/07/research_desk_responds_is_unem.html
=========

The Dow and 10 yr TBills

[mEDITate-OR:
drop off your cleaning, bcuz you have lost your shirt...

This is a "red" state of affairs..., is it not.
-----------

---------

===========
and, since 10 yr TBills control the RE mortgage interest rate...
how sour are these apples....
---------

========

Housing: Timing for reported increase in Months-of-Supply and Decrease in House Prices

[mEDITate-OR:

hope for less is more...

but, fear for it being worse than we knew...

Jim @ CR has just provided U.S. with his "projection" of what the "months of supply" of homes is, and what effect that will have on the prices of homes over the next few months.

Tis not a pretty picture..., but it could be a whole lot worse, too.

Could be in both senses:  could turn out a whole lot worse, and it won't but could be.

What Jim is saying, in addition to the fact that months of supply tracks almost perfectly with Case-Shiller, is that:

Below 6 months of supply (blue line) house prices are typically rising (red line, inverted).

Above 6 months of supply house prices are usually falling (although there were many programs to support house prices over the last year).

AND, that we now have a 10 months supply...!!!

Obviously, if THAT is true, we will see falling home prices.

How much, neither he nor we - you and U.S.- can predict.

But, we ARE going back down.

----------

=============

Housing: Timing for reported increase in Months-of-Supply and Decrease in House Prices

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/07/housing-timing-for-reported-increase-in.html

=========

Andy Grove: How America Can Create Jobs + How to Build an American Job

[mEDITate-OR:

not read what you need to read to understand what Andy is telling U.S.

OR:

listen, very carefully, to {Y}our Andy...

no, not Capp, Grove..., from Intel...

These two stories are a MUST read for anyone who is concerned about the creation of jobs for U.S.

We put the third chart first, bcuz it shows U.S. where we are in "lithium batteries" - off the charts.

What Andy tells U.S in the first article is what we SHOULD do.
What Peter tells U.S. in the 2nd is where and how we are failing to do it, when we could.

This is a wake up call.

------------

--------

----------

----------

============
Andy Grove: How America Can Create Jobs
The former Intel chief says "job-centric" leadership and incentives are needed to expand U.S. domestic employment again
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/toc/10_28/B4186magazine.htm
=========
How to Build an American Job
A look at attempts by Dow, Globalfoundries, and Bridgelux to build competitive high-tech factories in the U.S.
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_28/b4186048377696.htm
=========

SBA lending slips as stimulus cash dries up

[mEDITate-OR

be penny wise and pound foolish...

The SBA is currently running a waiting list, the Recovery Act Queue, for borrowers interested in getting a loan under the enhanced loan conditions should money become available again. The queue currently has 419 borrowers in line, requesting more than $123 million in funding

So..., give U.S. one (1) good, let alone very good, reason why this money is not appropriated immediately.

-----------

===========

SBA lending slips as stimulus cash dries up

http://money.cnn.com/2010/07/02/smallbusiness/small_business_sba_loans/index.htm

======
Recovery Report: SBA picks loan pool originators to revive 504 secondary market
http://phoenix.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2010/06/28/daily77.html?surround=lfn
===========

Fewest Teen Jobs added in June since 1951

[mEDITate-OR:
take your Spring Break..., all Summer long...

Even if your family has not lost their jobs, their homes, or their health...
what chance do YOU have, right after getting out of school...
for the Summer..., for the next few years..., for ever...?

Tis a Mad world out there..., so..., "What me Worry?"
------

========
Fewest Teen Jobs added in June since 1951
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/07/fewest-teen-jobs-added-in-june-since.html
==========

Personal Bankruptcy Filings up 14% in first 6 months of 2010

[mEDITate-OR:
connect the dots, but not see the full picture.

In a UoWA medical study they found that significant negative event in one's life resulted in a much higher incidence of sickness. And, two events more than doubled, and three events more than tripled, your chances of getting sick.

What any attorney with a divorce, BK, job loss and DUI practice will tell you is that if your client has one of these events, they will more likely than not have another, soon after.

Therefore, this chart might make you sick..., it probably made them.

Which also leads to this question:  "Which came first...: loss of job, DUI, or divorce?"
----------

========
Personal Bankruptcy Filings up 14% in first 6 months of 2010
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/07/personal-bankruptcy-filings-up-14-in.html
==========

Payrolls in U.S. Fall 125,000; Jobless Rate at 9.5%

[mEDITate-OR:

not be a wee skoshi bit confused by The Charts...:

1st by the Labor Dept

2nd by the White House

3rd by FinFacts

4th by AP abd the NYTimes.

It's almost as if the census did not actually happen every 10 years.

While you might see the AP article in your local newspaper or on the web,

you probably will not see or read the Bloomberg or FinFacts stories.

You should read them, they are very good.

Once again, we marvel at how very good the FinFacts stories and charts are, and ask why is it from Ireland that we get these excellent reports, and not here with U.S.?

=========

--------------

----------

---------

=======

Bloomberg

Payrolls in U.S. Fall 125,000; Jobless Rate at 9.5%
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-07-02/payrolls-in-u-s-fall-125-000-jobless-rate-at-9-5-update2-.html

========

Payrolls drop by 125K, jobless rate falls

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100702/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_economy

==========
FinFacts
US jobs numbers fell by by 125,000 in June
Broad measure of unemployment dipped to 16.5%
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1020064.shtml
========

Job recovery hits a wall: Government jobs fall fast and private sector cools

[mEDITate-OR:

not ask yourselves what woke the dogs up...

Charts, from every direction, even CNN...

as Joseph - aka, husband of Mother Mary - pointed out to us...

      "wonders, never cease."

===========

-----------

--------

============

Your Job

Job recovery hits a wall

Government jobs fall fast and private sector cools

By Chris Isidore, senior writer

July 2, 2010: 11:34 AM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com)

http://money.cnn.com/2010/07/02/news/economy/jobs_june/index.htm

=============

Employment-Population Ratio, Part Time Workers, Unemployed over 26 Weeks

[mEDITate-OR:

think this is ugly, whether or not you meditate on it...

------------

Employment-Population Ratio

This graph shows the employment-population ratio; this is the ratio of employed Americans to the adult population.

Note: the graph doesn't start at zero to better show the change

------------

Part Time for Economic Reasons

The number of workers only able to find part time jobs (or have had their hours cut for economic reasons) was at 8.63 million in June. This slight decline was a little bit of good news.

The all time record of 9.24 million was set in October.

---------

Unemployed over 26 Weeks

According to the BLS, there are 6.751 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job. This is a record 4.39% of the civilian workforce. (note: records started in 1948). It does appear the increases are slowing ... perhaps because people are giving up.

--------

===========

Remember to go to CRs web site & articles for the large charts

=========

Employment-Population Ratio

Part Time Workers

Unemployed over 26 Weeks

Friday, July 02, 2010

by CalculatedRisk on 7/02/2010 09:53:00 AM

============

Wages Up, and the Education Gap Grows - The Recovery Is Losing Steam = Worse Than 1982?

[mEDITate-OR:

not see we are in DEEP do-do...

Stunning..., how bleak these numbers really are...!!!

All the animals are equal, under the Constitution...

butt, of the joke, some are more equal than other.

---------

------------

----------------

-------

===========

==========

Wages Up, and the Education Gap Grows

By DAVID LEONHARDT

June 4, 2010, 10:29 AM

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/06/04/wages-up-and-the-education-gap-grows/

============

The Recovery Is Losing Steam

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/07/02/the-recovery-is-losing-steam/?src=mv

========

Worse Than 1982?

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/07/02/worse-than-1982-2/

===========

The Atlantic - June Unemployment Rate Declines to 9.5%

[mEDITate-OR:

Daniel, once again, great work. Not only are you on point, but your charts are vastly better than any others we can find so far this morning.

The problem is that while it tis true, and you are right private employment is and will be very slow, the loss of govt jobs AND the loss of UI will further reduce spending on consumption. Resulting in less Govt revenue - local, state & federal = more layoffs.

Private employers have not, and are not going to start hiring until they see increased consumption/spending.

We may now be caught in a maelstrom. MOG.

------------

-------------

----------

----------

----------

==========

The Atlantic -

June Unemployment Rate Declines to 9.5%

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/07/june-unemployment-rate-declines-to-95/59101/

==========

June Employment Report: 100K Jobs ex-Census, 9.5% Unemployment Rate + Employment Report: Which payroll number to use?

[mEDITate-OR:

not wonder what Jim @ CR was doing up all night...

You Don't ask, he don't tell.

What Jim really was doing is trying to figure out for U.S. what the real/true effects were for the census hirings and layoffs.

Even he is not sure.

Disirregardless, these are the best numbers we're gonna find.

-----

----------

========

Remember to go to CR's articles and web site for the larger charts.

========

June Employment Report:

100K Jobs ex-Census, 9.5% Unemployment Rate

Friday, July 02, 2010

by CalculatedRisk on 7/02/2010 08:30:00 AM

-------------

Employment Report: Which payroll number to use?

Thursday, July 01, 2010

by CalculatedRisk on 7/01/2010 09:56:00 PM

===========

Greater Phoenix June 2010 Residential Real Estate Market Review

[mEDITate-OR:

not see the huge shift taking place all around you....

The two charts below from Phoenix Market Trends show U.S. two very different things.

The first chart show U.S. that while REO listing are about the same for the last year...

their pending sales have dropped from 52% to 38% and sales from 60% to 39%.

Same number offered, 21% decline in REO sales!

It also shows U.S. that while Pre-foreclosure (short sales?) listings when up by only 8%

the pending sales are up by 22.7 to 37.8% or over 15%

and while completed sales are only up 13% for the year...

they are UP by 5% this month and over 7% over the last 60 days - doubled

What the 2nd chart shows U.S. is that while the total RE market appears to be stable over the last year, there are some interesting factoids:

1st, pending listings went from +16.8% in the 1st Q to - 17.1% today = not good

2nd, sales are about the same as last year, but day on market are down = good

3rd, active listing per sq ft are down from $ 176 last July to $ 139 this year = not good.

     {that is a $ 37 drop per sq ft OR today is 21% less than last year}

4th, while the dollar volume, average & median prices are all up... = good

the average annual prices are down by $ 13,500 and median by $ 16,500  = not good.

---------

------------

===========
Greater Phoenix June 2010
Residential Real Estate Market Review
http://www.phoenixmarkettrends.com/public/item/256054
===========

The Average Size Of A Home In Phoenix

[mEDITate-OR:
not need to get bigger...

While those in the PNW may worry about heating a home in the winter...
those of U.S. in Phoenix worry about cooling a home in the summer.

Disirregardless, what we see in this chart is the small growth in size from 2000 to 04, a slight decrease in o5 & 06, but a large increase in 06,7&08, and a decline in 09&10.

While this may appear odd, with the size growth timed with the collapse, you must consider the lead time for building a new spec home and pre-purchased home. And, with buyers paying Those Prices..., they wanted a BIGer home, to show for it.

---------

============
The Average Size Of A Home In Phoenix
http://www.phoenixmarkettrends.com/public/item/255824
==========

Mortgage rates at lowest in five decades National average for a 30-year fixed loan dips to 4.58 percent

[mEDITate-OR:
find interesting the interest rates available now, 2 U...

As bad as the economy is, if "They"/we think that it will get worse, interest rates will, continue, to go down.
The problem is, however, IF nothing works like is it supposed to..., when will it get better?

The FED dropped the re-discount rate to almost zero, but the Banks did not lend that or any money out to U.S..
The Federal Govt borrowed more money from China, Japan, UK, the Gulf oil state and, oddly, U.S. - why were we buying TBills? - to spend on UI benefits, to reimburse the states for Medicare & Medicaid, and to continue to pay teachers, police, firemen..., but with state revenues dropping like a rock, they still had to cut people and services.
The FED bought US$ 1.5 Trillion in FMae&FMac RE securities, so F&F "could" continue to make RE loans out to U.S.
But, "nothing appeared to happen"..., the dog didn't bark.

If no economic theories method of "fixing" the economy works the way it was intended...
as Karl Malden used to ask U.S.:
     "What are YOU going to do..., What ARE you going to do?"

------



=========
Mortgage rates at lowest in five decades
National average for a 30-year fixed loan dips to 4.58 percent
Mortgage rates have sunk to the lowest level in more than five decades, but consumers aren't rushing to refinance their loans or buy homes.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7148582/from/toolbar
=========

Commercial Real Estate Lending Challenges Banks

[mEDITate-OR:
go commercial at the wrong place in the wrong time...


-------

---------

No Turnaround in Sight

	3Q 2008	2Q 2009	3Q 2009
Return on Average Assets
District Banks	0.67%	0.19%	0.25%
Peer Banks	0.43	-0.33	-0.29
Net Interest Margin
District Banks	3.79	3.66	3.67
Peer Banks	3.83	3.57	3.61
Loan Loss Provision Ratio
District Banks	0.60	0.94	0.95
Peer Banks	0.78	1.52	1.5
Nonperforming Loans Ratio
District Banks	1.68	2.44	2.62
Peer Banks	2.2	3.77	4.02

==========
Commercial Real Estate Lending
Challenges Banks in District
http://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/cb/articles/?id=1846
=======

Stocks: If you thought the 1st half was bad...

[mEDITate-OR:
wonder what in Hell is going down...


----------

============
Stocks: If you thought the 1st half was bad...
http://money.cnn.com/2010/06/30/markets/markets_halfyear/index.htm
=======

If There's A Bottom In Sight For Commercial Real Estate, We Can't See It + No one wants to catch a falling knife

[mEDITate-OR:
not know that it IS time to panic...

These three charts just released by Kieth Jurow are bluntly, not just, stunning.

The first chart shows U.S. the total collapse of CRE sales - that one we knew about.

The second chart shows U.S. delinquencies for THIS Last YEAR have tripled...!!!
That we did not know about, bcuz they are not reporting that.

The third chart shows U.S. the maturity dates for all commercial RE loans.
{most CREs are 5 year balloons, that have to paid or rolled over}

That is US$ 1.730 Trillion in CREs that have to dealt with in this and the next 5 years.
And, as the 2rd chart shows U.S. most of that is held by banks.

As Keith said:       "Perhaps it is time to batten down the hatches."
---------
JGBHimself on Jun 30, 4:08 PM said:
Kieth, here in SE Phoenix there are five completed corner office complexes within two miles of me, that have not had even ONE (1) tenant since we arrived down here three years ago. They all still have rental signs out there, none have been foreclosed on, yet. Why? Bcuz they cannot be rented, at any price; and they cannot be sold for what it cost to build them, so who would want to take them back - what would THEY do with them.
God only know what they were/are smoking, or where they got it.
But, if we were to believe the Gov of AZ, "it" was recently carried across the Mexican border.
----------



==========
If There's A Bottom In Sight For Commercial Real Estate, We Can't See It
http://www.businessinsider.com/a-bottom-in-sight-for-commercial-real-estate-2010-6
========

Banks Edge Cautiously Back Into Commercial Mortgage-Backed Bonds

[mEDITate-OR:
not see what is not there...
see the dogs ain't barking...


------

==========
Banks Edge Cautiously Back Into Commercial Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Published: June 29, 2010
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/30/realestate/commercial/30cmbs.html
=========