[mEDITate-OR:
not see the significance of that portion of the REO spectrum...
What you NEED to appreciate is that, according to a recent article/study, over 80% of all those bad subprime and ARM loans that were issued between 03 and 07 were/are in trouble = severely behind in monthly payments, substantially underwater, about to be or in foreclosure (part of the estimated 1 Million this year), in bankruptcy, or trying to do a short sale.
As you also know, 50% of all RE loans between 03 & 07 were non-agency loans, in the sand states, made by Countrywide/BoA, WAMU/Chase, Wichovia/Wells and New Century/ BK
The point of the article is that MOST of those bad ARMs - the resets we all are worrying about - do NOT exist anymore. There will BE no flood of reset this & next year, and therefore no flood of foreclosures from them.
That IS really good news, if tis true.
Not for you personally, but for U.S. and especially those in the sand states.
======
Saturday, August 14, 2010
Fannie Mae: REO Inventory doubles, expected to increase "significantly" + Freddie Mac: $4.7 billion Loss, REO Inventory increases 79% YoY + Fannie, Freddie, FHA REO Inventory Increases 13% in Q2 from Q1 2010
[mEDITate-OR:
not see the most amazing RE charts any of U.S. have seen in some time.
While the first three are mentioned by others, this is the best graphical demonstration of how bad thing have gotten.
The 3rd is the "composite" view.
The 4th is literally brand new, and shows U.S. the non-agency Wall Street investment banks "secutitized" RE loans on top of the rest of this mess.
---------Remember to go to CR's web site for the LARGE charts.
---------
Fannie Mae reported that their REO inventory more than doubled since Q2 2009, from 62,615 to 129,310 in Q2 2010.
----------
Freddie Mac reported that their REO inventory increased 79% year over year, from 34,699 in Q2 2009 to 62,178 in Q2 2010.
This graph shows the REO inventory for Fannie, Freddie and FHA through Q2 2010.
The REO inventory for the "Fs" has increased sharply over the last year, from 135,868 at the end of Q2 2009 to 236,338 at the end of Q2 2010.
This is a new record for Fannie and Freddie; the FHA's REO inventory decreased slightly in Q2 2010.
-------------
Economist Tom Lawler has added private-label RMBS REO in the following graph.
Note: The private-label securities have one advantage - they essentially stopped making new loans in mid-2007!
==========Fannie Mae: REO Inventory doubles, expected to increase "significa
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/fannie-mae-reo-inventory-doubles.html
-------------
Freddie Mac: $4.7 billion Loss, REO Inventory increases 79% YoY
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/freddie-mac-47-billion-loss-reo.html
------------
Fannie, Freddie, FHA REO Inventory Increases 13% in Q2 from Q1 2010
http://www.calculatedriskblog.
------------
REO Inventory including private-label RMBS
http://www.calculatedriskblog.
=======
Lowell: "Slam Dunk Stimulus" - The Natural History of a Rumor
[mEDITate-OR:
not love "rumors"...
Linda Lowell at HousingWire wrote a great piece chronicling the history of that ridiculous rumor last week of a massive bailout of underwater homeowners
"Slam Dunk Stimulus" – The Natural History of a Rumor
http://www.housingwire.com/
I'd like to thank Linda for mentioning my reaction ("nonsense"). I usually ignore these rumors, but this one was getting significant coverage and was obviously nonsense.
Lowell: "Slam Dunk Stimulus" - The Natural History of a Rumor
http://www.housingwire.com/
=========
not love "rumors"...
Many years ago, Tom Dickson, AA to the Sen Maj Leader, Jim Camel, Aty 2 SML, and we started "The Legislative Rumor of the Day".
To win you had to start your rumor after the session adjourned for the day, and your rumor must have spread completely through the Leg BEFORE the session convened the next day.
No points were added for the rumor being factually true, nor completely ridiculous. Obviously that would be irrelevant. Belief, too. All that mattered was that it was passed on, and spread out.
IF you appreciate That Little Game, you will - this is mandatory, not permissive - LOVE this "news/views report" by Linda.
As Paul Harvey oft said to U.S. - and now, the Rest of the Story.
Enjoy.
---------- Said Jim @ CR:Linda Lowell at HousingWire wrote a great piece chronicling the history of that ridiculous rumor last week of a massive bailout of underwater homeowners
"Slam Dunk Stimulus" – The Natural History of a Rumor
http://www.housingwire.com/
I'd like to thank Linda for mentioning my reaction ("nonsense"). I usually ignore these rumors, but this one was getting significant coverage and was obviously nonsense.
Linda's piece is excellent.
-----------
Lowell: "Slam Dunk Stimulus" - The Natural History of a Rumor
by LINDA LOWELL
Tuesday, August 10th, 2010, 4:01 pm
How I long for the days when MBS research was about dry, specialized stuff like prepayments and relative value, projecting cash flows, building data bases and models of prepayment and yield curve processes. Dull matters you would be careful not to mention at a dinner party or drinking with pals in a bar. Tedious topics that could put Main Streeters to sleep. Conversation stoppers.
That changed in 2008. Mortgages and houses and mortgage-backed securities have transmogrified into filthy politics. Nowadays, opinionating about mortgage markets is a free-for-all with no barriers to entry, in which unsupported theories and poorly reasoned malarkey are spewed by politicians, no-experience academics, economists with no mortgage experience, the dying print media, the new electronic media, the blogs and the social nitworks.
The idea is not to monetize good information, but to get attention, attract site traffic, raise great winds of popular response. To stir the pot.
Problem is, that little coterie of data-respecting nerdalysts of which I was once a member now must spend an inordinate portion of the work day dissecting government half-measures (Hope Now, HAMP, HARP and so forth ad infinitum) and weighing rumors of more on the horizon.
With increasing frequency, nervous institutional investors call on the professional analysts for a reality check on wildfire speculation, canards and outright lies about what the government intends to do to fix the housing-mortgage mess and, unintentionally, sabotage investment performance.
The worst patch yet, I think, has been seen in the last couple of weeks, thanks to deliberate rumormongering about a backdoor stimulus plan [1], in which the government compels the housing agencies to forgive principal on millions of underwater mortgages and refinance them into the lowest published mortgage rates on record. Rumor mongering intended to further confuse public discourse going into the elections.
=========That changed in 2008. Mortgages and houses and mortgage-backed securities have transmogrified into filthy politics. Nowadays, opinionating about mortgage markets is a free-for-all with no barriers to entry, in which unsupported theories and poorly reasoned malarkey are spewed by politicians, no-experience academics, economists with no mortgage experience, the dying print media, the new electronic media, the blogs and the social nitworks.
The idea is not to monetize good information, but to get attention, attract site traffic, raise great winds of popular response. To stir the pot.
Problem is, that little coterie of data-respecting nerdalysts of which I was once a member now must spend an inordinate portion of the work day dissecting government half-measures (Hope Now, HAMP, HARP and so forth ad infinitum) and weighing rumors of more on the horizon.
With increasing frequency, nervous institutional investors call on the professional analysts for a reality check on wildfire speculation, canards and outright lies about what the government intends to do to fix the housing-mortgage mess and, unintentionally, sabotage investment performance.
The worst patch yet, I think, has been seen in the last couple of weeks, thanks to deliberate rumormongering about a backdoor stimulus plan [1], in which the government compels the housing agencies to forgive principal on millions of underwater mortgages and refinance them into the lowest published mortgage rates on record. Rumor mongering intended to further confuse public discourse going into the elections.
Lowell: "Slam Dunk Stimulus" - The Natural History of a Rumor
http://www.housingwire.com/
=========
BLS: Low Labor Turnover in June + Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase, Highest since February
[mEDITate-OR:
not get a real jolt outa da JOLTS...
While even the main line media does not show U.S. any chart for the new unemployment numbers any more, Jim @ CR not only shows U.S. that, but also the JOLTS report.
As you can see in the 1st chart, there are a LOT of hires, layoff, quits & fires, and job openings.
A recession does NOT mean that things stop.
So, what this tells U.S. is what is changing and in which direction.
As you can see in the 2nd chart, we are wallowing in the doldrums.
While "everyone" has been trying to tell U.S. that we are on the way UP...!!!
The facts are, we are not.
mcCain't be getting worser..,, but tis not gettin better, nor wise.
---------
The following [First] graph shows job openings (purple), hires (blue), Total separations (include layoffs, discharges and quits) (red) and Layoff, Discharges and other (yellow) from the JOLTS.
Unfortunately this is a new series and only started in December 2000
The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased this week by 14,250 to 473,500.
Weekly Initial Unemployme
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims_12.html
=======
not get a real jolt outa da JOLTS...
While even the main line media does not show U.S. any chart for the new unemployment numbers any more, Jim @ CR not only shows U.S. that, but also the JOLTS report.
As you can see in the 1st chart, there are a LOT of hires, layoff, quits & fires, and job openings.
A recession does NOT mean that things stop.
So, what this tells U.S. is what is changing and in which direction.
As you can see in the 2nd chart, we are wallowing in the doldrums.
While "everyone" has been trying to tell U.S. that we are on the way UP...!!!
The facts are, we are not.
mcCain't be getting worser..,, but tis not gettin better, nor wise.
---------
The following [First] graph shows job openings (purple), hires (blue), Total separations (include layoffs, discharges and quits) (red) and Layoff, Discharges and other (yellow) from the JOLTS.
Unfortunately this is a new series and only started in December 2000
-----------
This [Second] graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000.
The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased this week by 14,250 to 473,500.
The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The 4-week average of initial weekly claims is at the highest level since February, and suggests further weakness in the labor market.
===========
BLS: Low Labor Turnover in June
------------Weekly Initial Unemployme
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims_12.html
=======
Social Security Benefits and Maximum Contribution Base: Probably No Increase for 2011
[mEDITate-OR:
not understand why Congress gave themselves a +V- US$ 6,000 pay raise...
but WE did not.
Jim @ CR explains why we - you, me and U.S. - didn't.
Probably the best explanation you gonna get.
Thank him, not me.
U 2 can see if this "satisfies" you.
U 2 can blame him, too; but not me.
--------
This graph shows CPI-W over the last ten years.
The red lines are the Q3 average of CPI-W for each year.
The COLA adjustment is based on the increase from Q3 of one year from the highest previous Q3 average. So a 2.3% increase was announced in 2007 for 2008, and a 5.8% increase was announced in 2008 for 2009.
==========
Social Security Benefits and Maximum Contributi
Probably No Increase for 2011
http://www.calculatedriskblog.
===========
not understand why Congress gave themselves a +V- US$ 6,000 pay raise...
but WE did not.
Jim @ CR explains why we - you, me and U.S. - didn't.
Probably the best explanation you gonna get.
Thank him, not me.
U 2 can see if this "satisfies" you.
U 2 can blame him, too; but not me.
--------
This graph shows CPI-W over the last ten years.
The red lines are the Q3 average of CPI-W for each year.
The COLA adjustment is based on the increase from Q3 of one year from the highest previous Q3 average. So a 2.3% increase was announced in 2007 for 2008, and a 5.8% increase was announced in 2008 for 2009.
In Q3 2009, CPI-W was lower than in Q3 2008, so there was no change in benefits for 2010.
Even though there was no increase last year, and there will probably be no increase this year, those receiving benefits are still ahead because of the huge increase in Q3 2008.
For 2011, the calculation is not based on Q3 2010 over Q3 2009, but Q3 2010 over the highest preceding Q3 average ... the 215.495 in Q3 2008. This means CPI-W in Q3 2010 has to average above 215.495 or there will be no increase in Social Security benefits in 2011.
In July 2010, CPI-W was at 213.898, so CPI-W will have to average above 216.294 in August and September for the Q3 average to be at or above Q3 2008.
That suggests an increase in COLA is very unlikely right now
==========
Social Security Benefits and Maximum Contributi
Probably No Increase for 2011
http://www.calculatedriskblog.
===========
MBA: Mortgage Applications Essentially Unchanged Despite Lowest Rates + Freddie Mac: 30 Year Mortgages Rates fall to series record low
[mEDITate-OR:
not see what is not there...
What Jim @ CR predicted is coming true - RE sales, both new & existing - have collapsed.
What we did not expect to see is that REFIs are NOT expanding anything like they should.
You have better have a very GOOD reason why you haven't taken advantage of this "Golden" opportunity - literally and figuratively - both with your reason and your opportunity.
----------
This [First] graph shows the MBA Purchase Index and four week moving average since 1990.
The purchase index has increased slightly for four straight weeks - but is still 40% below the level of the last week of April (and about 32% below the last week of April using the 4-week average).
The decline in mortgage rates is related to the weak economy and falling Treasury yields. Rates will probably fall again this week with the Ten Year Treasury yield down to 2.7%.===========
not see what is not there...
What Jim @ CR predicted is coming true - RE sales, both new & existing - have collapsed.
What we did not expect to see is that REFIs are NOT expanding anything like they should.
You have better have a very GOOD reason why you haven't taken advantage of this "Golden" opportunity - literally and figuratively - both with your reason and your opportunity.
----------
This [First] graph shows the MBA Purchase Index and four week moving average since 1990.
The purchase index has increased slightly for four straight weeks - but is still 40% below the level of the last week of April (and about 32% below the last week of April using the 4-week average).
This recent collapse in the purchase index has already shown up as a decline in new home sales (counted when the contract is signed), and will show up in the July and August existing home sales reports (counted at close of escrow).
-------------
This [Second] graph shows the 30 year fixed rate mortgage interest rate based on the Freddie Mac survey since 1971.
The decline in mortgage rates is related to the weak economy and falling Treasury yields. Rates will probably fall again this week with the Ten Year Treasury yield down to 2.7%.
==========
MBA: Mortgage Applicatio
------------
Freddie Mac: 30 Year Mortgages Rates fall to series record low
Q2: Office, Mall and Lodging Investment
[mEDITate-OR:
wonder why they are offering more space, more improvements, more of everything...
including lower rents...
We are only just beginning to see the CMBS problems.
This quarter there was huge increase in defaults, refinances and foreclosures.
What you and CR may be missing is that many properties are "changing hands"...
we are NOT going to accuse "them" of the West Seattle S&L "bad loan" trades from that mess...
however, what we DO see is the IF there is any "equity" in these they are being rolled over and/or sold for cash.
IF there is NO equity, they are still being rolled over, with a delay and pray game plan.
Many of these have already been converted into "interest only" loan payments.
Some have been converted into "how much you getting in rent" loan payments.
But, most of the new REITs that were formed to buy "on the cheap" troubled RE still have not found anyone willing to sell, and take the loss. Just as most CMBS lenders, particularly the small local banks, simply do not have the "equity" themselves to cover the write downs. They HAVE to hold these properties. So, there are few sellers.
Lenders do NOT want to "own" these properties, and they do NO want to manage them. So, no matter how bad the current "owner"/managers are, they will be left in place.
------------This [First] graph shows investment in offices as a percent of GDP. Office investment as a percent of GDP peaked at 0.46% in Q3 2008 and has declined sharply to a new series low as a percent of GDP (data series starts in 1959).
REIS reported that the office vacancy rate is at a 17 year high at 17.4% in Q2, up from a revised 17.3% in Q1 and 16.0% in Q2 2009. With the office vacancy rate still rising, office investment will probably decline further - although most of the decline in investment has already happened.
-----------
The second graph is for investment in malls.
Investment in multimerchandise shopping structures (malls) peaked in 2007 and has fallen by over two-thirds (note that investment includes remodels, so this will not fall to zero). Mall investment is also at a series low (as a percent of GDP) and will probably continue to decline through 2010.
Reis reported that the mall vacancy rate increased in Q2 2010, and was the highest on record at 9.0% for regional malls, and the highest since 1991 for strip malls.
--------
The third graph is for lodging (hotels).
The bubble boom in lodging investment was stunning. Lodging investment peaked at 0.32% of GDP in Q2 2008 and has fallen by over 70% already. And I expect lodging investment to continue to decline through at least 2010.
As projects are completed there will be little new investment in these categories for some time.
===========
Q2: Office, Mall and Lodging Investmenthttp://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/q2-office-mall-and-lodging-investment.html
==========
U.S. Trade Gap Swells in June as Exports Fall
[mEDITate-OR:
===========
U.S. Trade Gap Swells in June as Exports Fall
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/08/us-trade-gap-swells-in-june-as-exports-fall/61297/
-----------
Trade gap widens sharply in June amid appetite for imports
U.S. deficit of $49.9 billion comes in highest since October 2008; exports decline
http://www.marketwatch.com/
========
not have seen THIS one incoming...
Tis Summer, when the toys are bought, and later delivered, for our Christmas pleasure(s)...
And, all those cheap EURO cars and goodies were delivered to U.S. as we ask them to.
Imports poured in from all across the globe
Imports from the European Union and Germany were the highest since October 2008
South Korea and Taiwan hit the highest since July 2008
with United Kingdom were the highest since October 2009
The deficit with Mexico was the highest since May 2008
with the European Union was the highest since July 2009
The U.S. trade deficit with China widened to $26.2 billion in June
up from both $18.4 billion in the same month last year and $22.3 billion in May.
It was the highest deficit since October 2008.
exports of goods alone slipped 2.2% to $105 billion
with exports of farm products at the lowest since September 2009
Some will blame everything on China, tis not close to the truth, but who cares.
-------
-------------
----------
===========
U.S. Trade Gap Swells in June as Exports Fall
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/08/us-trade-gap-swells-in-june-as-exports-fall/61297/
-----------
Trade gap widens sharply in June amid appetite for imports
U.S. deficit of $49.9 billion comes in highest since October 2008; exports decline
http://www.marketwatch.com/
========
Trade Deficit increases sharply in June
[mEDITate-OR:
not want to see the different views of CR
With the 1st chart CR shows U.S. the "normal" view - both exports and imports.
However, what this also shows U.S. is the FACT that both almost "track" - even in recessions. The gap has grown along with the size.
What the 2nd chart does for U.S. is separate the price of imported oil.
However, what this also shows U.S. is that between 04 and 09 when W quit on U.S., the trade deficit w/o oil was shrinking, a lot. But, oil was still getting worse.
However, in late 08 before W left, the economy's collapse also reduced the deficit - we simply stopped buying "stuff" from China.
Now, we are baa-a-ack....!!
---------
The first graph shows the monthly U.S. exports and imports in dollars through June 2010.
Clearly imports are increasing much faster than exports. On a year-over-year basis, exports are up 17% and imports are up 29%. This is an easy comparison because of the collapse in trade at the end of 2008 and into early 2009.
The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.
==========
not want to see the different views of CR
With the 1st chart CR shows U.S. the "normal" view - both exports and imports.
However, what this also shows U.S. is the FACT that both almost "track" - even in recessions. The gap has grown along with the size.
What the 2nd chart does for U.S. is separate the price of imported oil.
However, what this also shows U.S. is that between 04 and 09 when W quit on U.S., the trade deficit w/o oil was shrinking, a lot. But, oil was still getting worse.
However, in late 08 before W left, the economy's collapse also reduced the deficit - we simply stopped buying "stuff" from China.
Now, we are baa-a-ack....!!
---------
The first graph shows the monthly U.S. exports and imports in dollars through June 2010.
Clearly imports are increasing much faster than exports. On a year-over-year basis, exports are up 17% and imports are up 29%. This is an easy comparison because of the collapse in trade at the end of 2008 and into early 2009.
The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through June.
The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.
============
Trade Deficit increases sharply in June
http://www.calculatedriskblog.==========
Unofficial Problem Bank list increases to 811 institutions
[mEDITate-OR:
not remember...
when you're up to your arm pits in what you "do do"
stop digging..., and give a Shiite about what you see...
or
----------
Remember to go to CR's web site for the LARGE charts.
--------
This graph shows the number of banks on the unofficial list.
The number of institutions has more than doubled since we started the list in early August 2009 - even with all the bank failures (failures are removed from the list). The number of assets is up 50 percent over the last year.
On August 7, 2009, we listed 389 institutions with $276 billion in assets, and now the list has 811 institutions and $416.5 billion in assets.
----------
Here is the unofficial problem bank list for August 6, 2010.
=========
Unofficial Problem Bank list increases to 811 institutio
Forced to retire, some take Social Security early
[mEDITate-OR:
http://www.benzinga.com/10/08/
---------
Forced to retire, some take Social Security early
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/
===========
not be stunned by this chart and argument...
Notice THIS:
It appears part of the mystery of "where everyone disappeared to?"
as the labor force participation rate plunges is: Social Security
Early payments (at reduced amounts) jumped significantly for both the male and female population; strikingly high for males who have been harder hit in this recession as manual jobs disappear and the economy continues to focus on services. In both cases, almost three quarters of people taking social security in 2009, filed early.
Forced to retire, some take Social Security earlyAbsolutely stunning, and logical.
But think about this:
the largest component of the long term unemployed are those aged right before retirement.
Why wouldn't they use up all of the UI benefits..., and when they cannot find a job...
simply retire and collect the SS benefits they paid into all of their lives.
They played by The Rules for most of their lives, and now are using them to protect themselves.
Not only logical, ethical too.
------------
Paul Skidmore's office is shuttered, his job gone, his 18-month job search fruitless and his unemployment benefits exhausted. So at 63, he plans to file this week for Social Security benefits, three years earlier than planned. "All I want to do is work," said Skidmore, of Finksburg, Md., who was an insurance claims adjuster for 37 years before his company downsized and closed his office last year. "And nobody will hire me."
It is one of the most striking fallouts from the bad economy: Social Security is facing a rare shortfall this year as a wave of people like Skidmore opt to collect payments before their full retirement age. "I knew I had to have an income from somewhere, and my business wasn't giving it to me," she said. "I just went online and, boom, three weeks later I had the check."
---------
63-year-old Jan Gissel of Tustin, Calif., also was forced into retirement early. She turned to unemployment benefits when her technical support business failed and filed for Social Security last September. Together, the checks are keeping her afloat.
-------------
More people filed for Social Security in 2009 -- 2.74 million -- than any year in history, and there was a marked increase in the number receiving reduced benefits because they filed ahead of their full retirement age. The increase came as the full Social Security retirement age rose last year from 65 to 66.
---------------
Nearly 72% of men who filed opted for early benefits in 2009, up from 58% the previous year.
--------------
More women also filed -- 74.7% in 2009 compared with 64.2% the previous year.
-------------
"When you retire early, you are taking a hit in your monthly check, and most people don't do that voluntarily," she said. "They either do that because they aren't healthy enough to keep working or because they lost their job."
=========
http://www.benzinga.com/10/08/
---------
Forced to retire, some take Social Security early
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/
===========
Employment Report: Temporary Help and Diffusion Index + Duration of Unemployment
[mEDITate-OR:
This [First] graph shows the duration of unemployment as a percent of the civilian labor force. The graph shows the number of unemployed in four categories: less than 5 week, 6 to 14 weeks, 15 to 26 weeks, and 27 weeks or more.
Note: The BLS reports 15+ weeks, so the 15 to 26 weeks number was calculated.In July 2010, the number of unemployed for 27 weeks or more declined slightly to 6.572 million (seasonally adjusted) from 6.751 million in June. It is possible that the number of long term unemployed has peaked, but it is still very difficult for these people to find a job - and this is a very serious employment issue.
The less than 5 weeks category increased in July and is now at the highest level since January - and that is concerning.
This [Second] graph is a little complicated. The red line is the three month average change in temporary help services (left axis). This is shifted four months into the future.
Think of this as a measure of how widespread job gains are across industries. The further from 50 (above or below), the more widespread the job losses or gains reported by the BLS.
not be stunned by this "Duration of Employment" chart and argument...
-------------
Duration of UnemploymentThis [First] graph shows the duration of unemployment as a percent of the civilian labor force. The graph shows the number of unemployed in four categories: less than 5 week, 6 to 14 weeks, 15 to 26 weeks, and 27 weeks or more.
Note: The BLS reports 15+ weeks, so the 15 to 26 weeks number was calculated.In July 2010, the number of unemployed for 27 weeks or more declined slightly to 6.572 million (seasonally adjusted) from 6.751 million in June. It is possible that the number of long term unemployed has peaked, but it is still very difficult for these people to find a job - and this is a very serious employment issue.
The less than 5 weeks category increased in July and is now at the highest level since January - and that is concerning.
-----------
Temporary HelpThis [Second] graph is a little complicated. The red line is the three month average change in temporary help services (left axis). This is shifted four months into the future.
The blue line (right axis) is the three month average change in total employment (excluding temporary help services).
-------------
Diffusion Index
The BLS diffusion index for total private employment was steady at 55.6 in July. For manufacturing, the diffusion index is at 50.0; down from 53.0 in June, and down sharply from 65.9 in May.
Think of this as a measure of how widespread job gains are across industries. The further from 50 (above or below), the more widespread the job losses or gains reported by the BLS.
From the BLS:
Figures are the percent of industries with employment increasing plus one-half of the industries with unchanged employment, where 50 percent indicates an equal balance between industries with increasing and decreasing employment.
The increase in the diffusion index earlier this year was one of the clear positives in the monthly employment reports. The decrease in the diffusion index over the last few months (falling to 50% for manufacturing in July), is disappointing.
======
Employment Report: Temporary Help and Diffusion Index
---------------
Duration of Unemployment
=======
July Employment Report: 12K Jobs ex-Census, 9.5% Unemployment Rate + Employment-Population Ratio, Part Time Workers, Unemployed over 26 Weeks
[mEDITate-OR:
forget that July had to happen...
These are probably the best charts available to U.S., along with the best explanation, for the monthly DOL unemployment numbers.
-------
Remember: go to the CR web site and click for the LARGE charts.
----------
This [1st] graph shows the unemployment rate and the year over year change in employment vs. recessions.
The dotted line shows the impact of Census hiring. In July, there were 196,000 temporary 2010 Census workers on the payroll. The number of Census workers will continue to decline - and the gap between the solid and dashed red lines will be gone in a few months.
According to the BLS, there are 6.,572 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job. This is 4.3% of the civilian workforce, just below the record set last month. (note: records started in 1948). The number of long term unemployed might have peaked ...perhaps because people are giving up.
forget that July had to happen...
These are probably the best charts available to U.S., along with the best explanation, for the monthly DOL unemployment numbers.
-------
Remember: go to the CR web site and click for the LARGE charts.
----------
This [1st] graph shows the unemployment rate and the year over year change in employment vs. recessions.
Nonfarm payrolls decreased by 131 thousand in July. The economy has lost 52 thousand jobs over the last year, and 7.7 million jobs since the recession started in December 2007.
Ex-Census hiring, the economy added 12,000 jobs in July. The unemployment rate was steady at 9.5 percent.
Ex-Census hiring, the economy added 12,000 jobs in July. The unemployment rate was steady at 9.5 percent.
------------
The second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms (as opposed to the number of jobs lost).
The dotted line is ex-Census hiring. The two lines will rejoin later this year when the Census hiring is unwound.
-----------
This [3rd-alternative] graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms - this time aligned at the bottom of the recession (Both the 1991 and 2001 recessions were flat at the bottom, so the choice was a little arbitrary).
The dotted line shows the impact of Census hiring. In July, there were 196,000 temporary 2010 Census workers on the payroll. The number of Census workers will continue to decline - and the gap between the solid and dashed red lines will be gone in a few months.
Employment-Population Ratio
The Employment-Population ratio decreased to 58.4% in July from 58.5% in June. This had been increasing after plunging since the start of the recession, and the recovery in the Employment-Population ratio was considered a good sign - but the ratio has now decreased for three consecutive months.
This [4th] graph shows the employment-population ratio; this is the ratio of employed Americans to the adult population.
-----------
Part Time for Economic Reasons
From the BLS report:
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was essentially unchanged over the month at 8.5 million but has declined by 623,000 since April. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.
The number of workers only able to find part time jobs (or have had their hours cut for economic reasons) was at 8.53 million in July. This small decline was a little bit of good news.
--------------
Unemployed over 26 Weeks
The blue line is the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. The red line is the same data as a percent of the civilian workforce.
According to the BLS, there are 6.,572 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job. This is 4.3% of the civilian workforce, just below the record set last month. (note: records started in 1948). The number of long term unemployed might have peaked ...perhaps because people are giving up.
============
Friday, August 13, 2010
Foreclosure numbers fall, but AZ still No. 2 + July Foreclosures Grow as Banks Continue to Take Back Properties
[mEDITate-OR
miss the location, location, location...
Below are three Business Journal articles: Phoenix, Atlanta & So Florida.
Same RealtyTrac press release & data, totally different stories.
They ARE worth reading, each of them, bcuz each not only provides U.S. with a view of their own RE economic situations, BUT, they provide quite different segments of the full RealtyTrac story.
The last article is a very good over view of the full dimension of the foreclosure problems, AND it has The Map - which shows U.S. that it really IS "location".
What was originally the sand states of Cal, Nev, Fla & AZ...
is now spreading up the West Coast
and moving inland to cover Idaho, Utah and Colorado !!!
As my comment below points out, the problem is lessening in the worst, sand states
BUT, it is growing AND spreading all across U.S.
NOT Good on ya Mate.
-------------
As one of your other BJs pointed out, foreclosures are down in the sand states - the largest underwater RE markets, even so still with 50% of all foreclosures.
As another article/study of ARM loans tells U.S., of the worst of the subprime & ARM loans, over 50% of all RE loans to U.S. between 03 and 07, more than 80% of them are "in trouble" - behind in payments, underwater, already out or now in foreclosure, already in or about to be in BK.
More relevant, IF they are correct, is their argument that MOST of the ARM loans - those that are scheduled for resets this and next year - have already been or are being washed out of the market this year! And, if THAT is true, there will be NO new flood of ARM foreclosures.
Finally, the sand states, aka Arid-zone-Ah - get a break. So, IF we can create some jobs for U.S., the worst may be really, truly, over.
--------------
There were 1,654,634 foreclosures in the United States for the first half of 2010, up 8.3 percent over the first half of 2009.
The top 10 worst states and their foreclosure totals for the first half of 2010:
Nevada -- 64,429
Arizona -- 91,484
Florida -- 277,073
California -- 340,740
Utah -- 18,058
Georgia -- 71,949
Michigan -- 78,509
Idaho -- 10,799
Illinois -- 85,223
Colorado -- 30,177
The top 10 worst metro area and their foreclosure totals for the first half of 2010:
Miami -- 94,466
Los Angeles -- 93,263
Chicago -- 78,022
Phoenix -- 73,352
Riverside, Calif. -- 63,717
Las Vegas -- 53,525
Atlanta -- 52,381
Detroit -- 47,563
New York -- 44, 522
Orlando, Fla. -- 37,352
===========
=============
Foreclosure numbers fall, but AZ still No. 2
http://phoenix.bizjournals.
-----------
Atlanta has sixth-most foreclosures through Q2
http://phoenix.bizjournals.
---------
RealtyTrac: July foreclosures rise
http://phoenix.bizjournals.
==============
July Foreclosures Grow as Banks Continue to Take Back Properties
http://www.realestatechannel.com/us-markets/residential-real-estate-1/real-estate-news-july-residential-foreclosures-realtytrac-home-foreclosures-foreclosure-rates-home-buyer-tax-credit-us-foreclosure-market-report-2985.php
============
miss the location, location, location...
Below are three Business Journal articles: Phoenix, Atlanta & So Florida.
Same RealtyTrac press release & data, totally different stories.
They ARE worth reading, each of them, bcuz each not only provides U.S. with a view of their own RE economic situations, BUT, they provide quite different segments of the full RealtyTrac story.
The last article is a very good over view of the full dimension of the foreclosure problems, AND it has The Map - which shows U.S. that it really IS "location".
What was originally the sand states of Cal, Nev, Fla & AZ...
is now spreading up the West Coast
and moving inland to cover Idaho, Utah and Colorado !!!
As my comment below points out, the problem is lessening in the worst, sand states
BUT, it is growing AND spreading all across U.S.
NOT Good on ya Mate.
-------------
As one of your other BJs pointed out, foreclosures are down in the sand states - the largest underwater RE markets, even so still with 50% of all foreclosures.
As another article/study of ARM loans tells U.S., of the worst of the subprime & ARM loans, over 50% of all RE loans to U.S. between 03 and 07, more than 80% of them are "in trouble" - behind in payments, underwater, already out or now in foreclosure, already in or about to be in BK.
More relevant, IF they are correct, is their argument that MOST of the ARM loans - those that are scheduled for resets this and next year - have already been or are being washed out of the market this year! And, if THAT is true, there will be NO new flood of ARM foreclosures.
Finally, the sand states, aka Arid-zone-Ah - get a break. So, IF we can create some jobs for U.S., the worst may be really, truly, over.
--------------
There were 1,654,634 foreclosures in the United States for the first half of 2010, up 8.3 percent over the first half of 2009.
The top 10 worst states and their foreclosure totals for the first half of 2010:
Nevada -- 64,429
Arizona -- 91,484
Florida -- 277,073
California -- 340,740
Utah -- 18,058
Georgia -- 71,949
Michigan -- 78,509
Idaho -- 10,799
Illinois -- 85,223
Colorado -- 30,177
The top 10 worst metro area and their foreclosure totals for the first half of 2010:
Miami -- 94,466
Los Angeles -- 93,263
Chicago -- 78,022
Phoenix -- 73,352
Riverside, Calif. -- 63,717
Las Vegas -- 53,525
Atlanta -- 52,381
Detroit -- 47,563
New York -- 44, 522
Orlando, Fla. -- 37,352
===========
=============
Foreclosure numbers fall, but AZ still No. 2
http://phoenix.bizjournals.
-----------
Atlanta has sixth-most foreclosures through Q2
http://phoenix.bizjournals.
---------
RealtyTrac: July foreclosures rise
http://phoenix.bizjournals.
==============
July Foreclosures Grow as Banks Continue to Take Back Properties
http://www.realestatechannel.com/us-markets/residential-real-estate-1/real-estate-news-july-residential-foreclosures-realtytrac-home-foreclosures-foreclosure-rates-home-buyer-tax-credit-us-foreclosure-market-report-2985.php
============
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