How Many Folks Have “Lost Their Homes” to Foreclosure/Short Sales/DILs?

[mEDITate-OR:
believe that the disconnect, between "final" foreclosures and how many of U.S. are seriously delinquent in paying our home loans, are all YOUR fault.
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What Jim@CR and Tom Lawyer have tried to do for U.S. is make sense of it all.
What they show U.S. is that by the end of  2008 foreclosures about 60% of the delinquent loans at the beginning of the year were completed.
However, at the end of 2009 only 42.2% of the prior years delinquent loans were completed.
AND, at the end of 2010 only 33.6% of the prior years delinquent loans were completed.
If you look at the color graph you MIGHT think that we have completed foreclosure on about half of the prior years delinquent RE loans. And, that the delinquent loans have remained constant.
However, IF you look at the "numbers", that might not be the case.
The number of completed foreclosures have increased by about 200,000 per year.
The number of delinquencies, however, increased by 6 times that in 2009
and by 7 times that in 2010.
So, not only do we not know how many actually HAVE lost their homes...
we do NOT know how may delinquent owner still face foreclosure.
What we DO know is that those falling behind are much larger than those loosing their homes.
And, that does not even begin to tell U.S. how many homes the banksters are actually holding back off the RE markets.
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Year	Completed Foreclosure
2007	514,000
2008	914,000
2009	949,000
2010	1,070,000

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Year	Completed Foreclosure Sales	Short Sales	Total
2008	914,000	95,000	1,009,000
2009	949,000	263,000	1,212,000
2010	1,070,000	375,000	1,445,000

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Year	Completed Foreclosure Sales plus Short Sales	Loans in Foreclosure/90+ Delinquent at end of previous year
2008	1,009,000	1,664,760
2009	1,212,000	2,859,959
2010	1,445,000	4,296,018

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How Many Folks Have “Lost Their Homes” to Foreclosure/Short Sales/DILs?
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/02/lawler-how-many-folks-have-lost-their.html
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Daily Color: D-List Data = MBA: Mortgage Purchase Application activity increases + ADP: Private Employment increased by 187,000 in Jan

[mEDITate-OR:
misunderstand economist criticizingly other economic charts, with reason...
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Today, the mainstream media is lying to U.S. about what the ADP and the MBA data really are telling U.S.
Why they are lying might be simply stupidity. Might be they are lazy.
Might be they are being paid to feed U.S. Faux News.
Disirregardless, the first article by Jim@CR is a "MUST read" for all of U.S.
As he points out:
the ADP report really isn’t useful in predicting the BLS numbers on a month to month basis. I just use it as a “hint”.
Above/later we will show a chart that makes clear how far off the mark ADP's report really is.
They need to do much better work.
If they wish to be believable.
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Daily Color: D-List Data
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/02/daily-color-d-list-data.html
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MBA: Mortgage Purchase Application activity increases
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/02/mba-mortgage-purchase-application.html
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ADP: Private Employment increased by 187,000 in January
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/02/adp-private-employment-increased-by.html
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Q4 Investment: Office, Mall, Lodging and Residential Components

[mEDITate-OR:
misunderstand what you need to understand.
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Once again, CR provides U.S. with the most cogent charts & explanation for the inside messages from the GDP advance report. 
Note: this is new construction. So, if they are foreclosing on U.S., and they are not building new home, condos OR apartments, where are we moving out to...???
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Remember - visit CR web site for the LARGE charts.
----------Malls, offices & Hotels
This graph shows investment in offices, malls and lodging as a percent of GDP. Office investment as a percent of GDP peaked at 0.46% in Q1 2008 and has declined sharply to a new series low as a percent of GDP (data series starts in 1959).
Investment in multimerchandise shopping structures (malls) peaked in 2007 and has fallen by two-thirds (note that investment includes remodels, so this will not fall to zero). Mall investment is also at a series low (as a percent of GDP).
The bubble boom in lodging investment was stunning. Lodging investment peaked at 0.32% of GDP in Q2 2008 and has fallen by over 70% already.
Notice that investment for all three categories typically falls for a year or two after the end of a recession, and then usually recovers very slowly (flat as a percent of GDP for 2 or 3 years). Something similar will probably happen again, and there will not be a recovery in these categories until the vacancy rates fall significantly.
-------------Residential investment
Investment in home improvement was at a $151.6 billion Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in Q4 (about 1.0% of GDP), significantly above the level of investment in single family structures of $106.2 billion (SAAR) (or 0.7% of GDP). 
Brokers' commissions increased slightly in Q4, but are near the lowest level (as a percent of GDP) since the early '80s. In dollar terms, brokers' commissions are back to the 1998 / 1999 levels.
And investment in multifamily structures has been bouncing along at a series low for the last few quarters, although this is expected to increase in 2011.
These graphs show there is currently very little investment in offices, malls and lodging - and also very little investment in most components of residential investment.
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Q4 Investment: Office, Mall, Lodging and Residential Components
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/02/q4-investment-office-mall-lodging-and.html
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U.S. Manufacturing Index Jumps To Six-Year High In January + Chicago Business Barometer Rises To Highest Level In Over 20 Years

[mEDITate-OR:
manufacture an excuse not to like this report.
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Although there is some difference of opinion.
most see this as the possible savior of the US economy, this time.
CR's summary is: This was a strong report and above expectations. The new orders and employment indexes were especially strong.
However, it is pointed out that this is a survey of multinational companies sales; therefore it may not represent domestic sales to U.S., but sales to the rest of the world.
That is a very different thing, as off-shoring has shown U.S.
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Note that the charts are very different.
The 1st is for this decade. The 2nd is for 4 decades
The 3rd & 4th are for this last year.
What the last two provide U.S. are the sector gains
first in chart form, then in table form
All using the same data, same report, visually very different.
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ISM Manufacturing Report: A+

http://wallstreetpit.com/59798-january-ism-factory-index-accelerates-to-60-8

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U.S. Manufacturing Index Jumps To Six-Year High In January
http://www.rttnews.com/Content/USEconomicNews.aspx?Id=1541487&SM=1
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Chicago Business Barometer Rises To Highest Level In Over 20 Years
http://www.rttnews.com/Content/TopStories.aspx?Node=B1&Id=1540062
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Manufacturing Continues as Recovery's Shining Star
http://www.benzinga.com/11/02/824702/manufacturing-continues-as-recoverys-shining-star
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