Saturday, August 21, 2010

Credit default swap deals unnerve California - Some say credit default swaps may influence the market for muni bonds = How a credit default swap deal works

[mEDITate-OR:
not give credit to the negative impacts of credit default swaps..., on U.S.

What "investment bankers" did when they sold U.S. on CDOs was to tell us that it was a way to reduce both the interest/costs paid for our civic improvements and to cover our pension liabilities, AND to reduce the risk.

CDOs did neither.

If you do not see the humour in using a CDO to fund your local police & fire pension liabilities..., well, you don't have any sense of humour, do you. Bcuz the final COST of that terrible mistake is gonna bankrupt your communities.

In order to fund pensions, state & local govts sought out high yield and high risk investments. The got the latter, but not the former. Now, they are deeper in the financial hole than they were before.

And, Wall Street made off/out like "bandits" - figuratively and literally.

Sad, pathetically sad.
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Credit default swap deals unnerve California
Some say credit default swaps may influence the market for muni bonds
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-california-swaps-20100819,0,3141195.story?track=rss&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+latimes/business+(L.A.+Times+-+Business)
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How a credit default swap deal works
Some hedge funds buy protection against missed bond payments, others sell it.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-calif-swaps-side-20100819,0,4956606.story
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U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index Increased 13% Last Week + US home refinancing demand at highest in 15 months


[mEDITate-OR:
recognize an interregnum when you are in one...

10yr TBills are selling higher, and their yield are as low as many of U.S. have seen in our lifetimes...
RE mortgage interest rates are LOW..., and many fall even lower.

But, while most of U.S. probably should - morally, economically, legally and financially - REFI any and all of our RE debts, most of U.S. will not be allowed to do it. Sad, but true.

This week in Phoenix we finally see a recognition that housing prices are taking a second dip, and that job growth might take a decade, or more, to get anywhere near the peak levels.

"They" say that it mcCaint be over until the Fat Lady sings...
However, being out of work, and loosing all that weight, she might not be as fat as she once was.

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Home refinancing
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US-housing-starts-building-permits-081710-2.jpg
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U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index Increased 13% Last Week
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-08-18/u-s-mba-mortgage-applications-index-increased-13-last-week.html
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US home refinancing demand at highest in 15 months
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1847708420100818
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Refinancing demand fails to lift mortgage bonds
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/296a2fe0-aaee-11df-9e6b-00144feabdc0.html
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Home sales slump in July
Southern California sees a 21.4% drop in home sales from 2009 but tax credits skew the figures.
http://articles.latimes.com/2010/aug/18/business/la-fi-home-sales-20100818
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Checking In on Consumer Credit Defaults


[mEDITate-OR:
be shocked, and not just, shocked...

No, not that Ms C is being very good to U.S....
but by the numbers and charts.

While we think de-leveraging is great for all of U.S.
we still need to know whether the decline in the total debt is due to U.S. paying down our debts, OR is the result of write-offs and reduced credit lines.

Disirregardless, the reduction in personal debt is stunning. And, good for U.S.

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*Based on the population with a credit report.
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Checking In on Consumer Credit Defaults
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/18/checking-in-on-consumer-credit-defaults/?src=busln
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China sold U.S. government bonds in June for the second straight month

[mEDITate-OR:
not wonder what China is up to..., this time...

When we began "the housing crisis" China stopped buying FMae&FMac RE securities and shifted all of their foreign trade surplus dollars over into TBills. It was only at the first of this year that China started to purchase more RE securities.

Now, they, unlike Japan & the UK...
explain to U.S. how two countries that are in terrible economic shape can "afford" to increase their TBill holding with U.S., and China who NEEDS to have U.S. buy more stuff for Christmas...
are now dumping [y]our TBills...???

So, who is buying TBills which are used to fund the Federal Deficits...??

Strange world we now live in..., said Alice, to her cat.
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China sold U.S. government bonds in June for the second straight month
http://wallstreet.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2010/08/16/china-sells-treasurys-again/
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China US debt holdings lowest level in a year: Treasury
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/afp/20100816/tbs-us-economy-finance-bonds-china-ec2362a.html
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Four banks face big losses on repurchases + Banks May Face $134 Billion Loss on Loan Refunds


[mEDITate-OR:
not see a little rain falling on their heads....

While it was obvious that the Big Bailed Out Banks, that bought up mortgage originating companies that were in trouble, would face HUGE claims, there have been few articles that quantify those potential claims. Here are two new articles that do. Guesstimate, true; but they tried.
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Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. are among 11 lenders that could suffer $133.8 billion in combined losses as mortgage-bond investors and insurers demand refunds for soured loans
That’s the base estimate by analyst Chris Gamaitoni, who told clients costs may range from $55.3 billion in a best-case scenario to $179.2 billion at worst.
The losses would be in addition to $28 billion of buyback demands by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that Compass previously predicted
Lenders have been barraged by claims from mortgage buyers and insurers who say banks sold housing debt to investors based on untrue or misleading data about home loans.
The estimated losses exceed 10 percent of tangible book value at eight of the banks
While solvency isn’t at risk, the drain on profit could last for years
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Four banks face big losses on repurchases


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Banks May Face $134 Billion Loss on Loan Refunds

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-18/bofa-jpmorgan-may-lead-banks-facing-134-billion-loss-on-loan-repurchases.html
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Eating Gasoline in America + The Federal Reserve Enters Decline + The Ascent of Middle East Food and Energy Demand

[mEDITate-OR:

see the humour in this one...

Gregor Macdonald is an oil analyst and energy sector investor, who also focuses on the coming transition to alternatives.

And, he has a most interesting web site, aboot oil. Here are three very well thought out, and different articles.

The 1st chart shows U.S. that the use of food stamps by U.S. appears to be directly tied to the price of gasoline. As gas goes up, our ability to feed ourselves goes down.

The 2nd chart shows U.S. that the backup supply of energy for U.S. provided by the rest of the world has plateaued.  Both by China using more and by OPEC providing less.

The 3rd chart is "argumentative", but rather stunning - that those who sell U.S. their oil are both using more of it themselves, and needing more food that they can supply themselves.

One might suggest that they start using hydroponics.
hydroponics hy'dro·pon'ics. adj. cultivation of plants in nutrient solution rather than in soil.
hydroponics.com hy’dro-pon’ics dot com. An informative, educational website designed to help you    learn everything you need to know about hydroponics and direct you to the best products possible to    meet your hydroponic growing needs.
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The research now establishing economic sensitivity to high oil prices, especially for commuters from America’s suburbs, is myriad. Indeed, depending on how high gasoline prices go, housing affordability itself is now more likely to fall with distance. This was only exacerbated in the past ten years as home buyers, looking to escape housing inflation, migrated further and further from city cores, to the peripheries. More broadly, we now understand that poverty is now a phenomenon of the suburbs, according to a study released this year by The Brookings Institute. And given that trend, I have taken another look at one of my favored indicators: food stamp usage. Below is a chart of food stamp users (the SNAP program) in one of America’s quintessential post-war, car commuting regions: San Bernardino County.
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Eating Gasoline in America
http://gregor.us/oil/eating-gasoline-in-america/
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The Federal Reserve Enters Decline
http://gregor.us/fossil-fuels/the-federal-reserve-enters-decline/
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The Ascent of Middle East Food and Energy Demand
http://gregor.us/oil/the-ascent-of-middle-east-food-and-energy-demand/
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The worst bet in real estate today: Construction loans

[mEDITate-OR:
bet on the wrong things, in all the wrong places, to go bad...


Commercial defaults - both construction and take out lending - are destroying [y]our small, local, community banks. We did bail out the Big Bad Banks, and we did bail out General Motors, Chrysler, and AIG. But, we are not doing anything for small banks and/or small business.

And, if you think it is bad where you are, you should be in one of the sand states.
Really ugly.

But, this article is very good.
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Even so, the numbers are already grim:
 LOANS TURNING SOUR
More construction loans are going bad than any other kind. percentage of loans by category that were 90 days or more past due among FDIC-insured lenders on March 31:
All real estate loans
7.6%
Construction/development
16.8%
Non-farm non-residential
4.2%
Multifamily residential real estate
4.6%
Home equity loans
1.7%
Other 1- to 4-family residential
10.2%
Commercial/industrial loans
3.1%
Loans to individuals
2.3%
Credit card loans
3.1%
Other loans to individuals
1.4%
All other loans/leases*
1.7%
Total loans/leases
5.5%
* = includes farms Source: FDIC
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The worst bet in real estate today: Construction loans
http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/banking/2010-08-17-banks17_CV_N.htm
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AZ ranking jumps with average home closing costs

[mEDITate-OR:
not notice that "costs & fees" make mortgage rates extremely variable.
all mortgages are NOT equal, even from the same lenders.
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Bankrate.com’s 2010 Closing Costs Survey puts Arizona at No. 15 among states, up from 39th in its 2009 study. The average total fees in Arizona stand at $3,950, including a $1,437 loan origination fee and $2,514 in title and other closing costs.


New York topped the list with an average fee of $5,623 with Texas, Utah, San Francisco and Los Angeles rounding out the top five. Arkansas is the least expensive area with an average fee of $3,007
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AZ ranking jumps with average home closing costs
http://phoenix.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2010/08/16/daily9.html?surround=lfn
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Study: N.Y. has highest closing costs
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U.S. credit card losses fall more than expected + Consumers card payment rates up again in July

[mEDITate-OR:
not shift your opinion...

We and many others have been very critical of the misleading use of these credit card balance numbers, bcuz they did not account for the different effects of: 1. major write downs of losses, 2. the huge reduction in authorized limits, and 3. the size of the current use of the cards.

While that has been true, these two articles suggest that most of those write downs and reductions have now been accounted for, and that the users ARE paying down their accounts. At least more so than before.

That is both Good News and Bad News.
Good for them, they are not in as much debt, now.
Bad for the economy, bcuz they are not "consuming" as much.
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Here are details:
- CAPITAL ONE: U.S. card charge-offs fell to 8.1 percent of total balances in July from 9.3 percent in June. The company said 4.66 percent of its loans were 30 days or more past due in July, down from 4.79 percent in June and 4.8 percent in May.
For Capital One's international cards, the charge-off rate was 7.86 percent in July, compared with 8.3 percent in June. Capital One's international delinquency rate also eased - to 5.94 percent in July from 6.03 percent in June. The charge-off rate in Capital One's auto loan unit fell to 2.6 percent in July from 2.72 percent in June, and the auto loan delinquency rate fell to 7.72 percent from 7.74 percent.

- DISCOVER: Discover Financial Services said its net charge-offs declined to 7.28 percent in July, from 8 percent in June. Its rate of loans 30 days or more past due slipped to 4.7 percent in July from 4.8 percent in June.
- CHASE: Chase said its net credit losses fell to 7.88 percent of total balances in July, from 8.32 in June. Chase said its rate of loans 30 days or more past due slipped to 4.25 percent in July from 4.3 percent in June.
- BANK OF AMERICA: Bank of America said the share of credit card balances it wrote off as uncollectable fell for the fourth straight month and past-due payments dropped to their lowest point of the year. It said its charge-off rate dropped to 11.39 percent of balances from 11.98 in June.
Bank of America is the among the top three U.S. banks offering credit cards, with about 80 million cards in circulation, according to the Nilson Report, an industry newsletter.
Bank of America said the rate of late payments has fallen to its lowest point of the year, 5.92 percent from 6.16 percent in June. That's a sign that the debt burdens felt by card holders over the past two years is beginning to ease.
- AMERICAN EXPRESS: American Express said its charge-off rate fell to 5.5 percent in July from 5.7 percent the month before and the delinquent card payments 30 days past due slipped to 2.6 percent from 2.7 percent in June.
- ALLIANCE DATA SYSTEMS CORP.: This manager of credit card programs for more than 90 retailers, including Victoria's Secret, Ann Taylor and Pottery Barn, said its net charge-offs fell to $35.4 million, or 8.6 percent of total balances from $36.7 million, or 8.8 percent in June.
Delinquencies among its company-branded credit cards rose to $271.4 million, or 5.7 percent, as of July 31. On the same date a year ago, $251.6 million, or 6 percent, of balances on the cards was delinquent. The Dallas-based company said the increase is consistent with its historical seasonal rise in late payments.
-CITIBANK: The nation's No. 2 card issuer said its credit losses fell to 9.10 percent of balances, down from 10.72 percent in June, which is a restated figure.
Citibank's charge-off rate had been increasing through March when it peaked at above 11 percent.
The New York-based bank, a division of Citigroup Inc., also said fewer customers were falling behind. For July, payments past due by 30 days or more reached 8.32 percent, down from 8.58 percent in June.
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U.S. credit card losses fall more than expected
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/US-credit-card-losses-fall-rb-1979272670.html?x=0
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Consumers card payment rates up again in July
http://www.azcentral.com/business/consumer/articles/2010/08/16/20100816credit-card-rates.html
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Arizona real estate: Phoenix home prices down = Indicators forecasting housing 'double dip'

[mEDITate-OR:

wonder why even the RE optimists are now pessimistic...

This is one of the better summaries of the Phoenix AZ market's current condition.
While the author has been criticized for being too upbeat, this article was given a lot of approval. It is worth reading.
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Home prices in metro Phoenix are falling again, and new data about upcoming sales suggest that they are likely to keep falling over the next few months, bringing concerns of a housing-market "double dip" closer to reality.
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Arizona real estate: Phoenix home prices down
Indicators forecasting housing 'double dip'
http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/2010/08/15/20100815arizona-real-estate-phoenix-home-prices-lower.html
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Extended mass layoffs + Demographics of multiple jobholding

[mEDITate-OR:
not even know about TED...
BLS issues a new, interesting statistical chart every week day.
And, they send out a Friday summary of that weeks charts.
While not all are as interesting, some are very.

This first chart, of people who hold multiple jobs, raises one, or two.
Why the differences?
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Multiple jobholding rates, by selected characteristics, 1994–2009
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Extended mass layoff events and separations, first quarter 2006—second quarter 2010
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Unit labor costs, manufacturing, all persons, seasonally adjusted, first quarter (I) 2005 — second quarter (II) 2010
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August 09, 2010 (The Editor’s Desk is updated each business day.
Demographics of multiple jobholding
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August 12, 2010
Unit labor costs in manufacturing, second quarter 2010
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August 13, 2010
Extended mass layoffs, second quarter 2010
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Tuesday, August 17, 2010

The Job Market for Immigrants = The Unemployment Rate Race

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that, as bad as you think it is for you...
it is never as bad for "them"...

Sadly, tain true.
However, what these two NYT charts - there from "Catherine", NOT the news people - show U.S. is that what has happened to U.S. is very different from what happened to "Them".

What we are seeing is a huge increase in unemployment for older people, and for a much longer period of time. They are not only out of a job, but out of "work" - possibly for ever.

This is an "economic shift" of immense proportions.
Not only are we dumping "immigrants", but we are also dumping our parents.

The immigrants cannot "retire" on SS, our parent are doing just that.
Massive increase in apps for SS, massive decrease in people paying INTO their SS.

What was an "incoming" flood, is now of Noah's dimension.
Ugly!
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DESCRIPTION
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DESCRIPTION
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The Job Market for Immigrants
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/14/the-job-market-for-immigrants/
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The Unemployment Rate Race
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/07/12/the-unemployment-rate-race/
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Monday, August 16, 2010

U.S. Identifies Vast Mineral Riches in Afghanistan

[mEDITate-OR:
try to get the money..., sweetie...
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U.S. Identifies Vast Mineral Riches in Afghanistan
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China marches towards world's No. 2 economy = Passes Japan as Second-Largest Economy

[mEDITate-OR:
see that the "Rising Sun" is being eclipsed...
and that what's dragon..., on U.S...

The first pic shows U.S. that we ain't flying so high anymore

The 2nd chart shows U.S. that while Japan and U.S. growing, China is growing up faster than we are.

the 3rd chart U.S. what China has done in the decade of W's foreign trade deficits.

But, the 4th graph shows U.S. that per capita China has a LONG way to go.
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chart_world_economies_2.top.gif
China's GDP was smaller than Japan's in 2009 but the IMF expects that wont be the case by the end of this year.
But China still trails the United States by a wide margin
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China may overtake Japan as the world's second-largest economy this year
but it remains a developing economy despite its fast pace of growth
economists said
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Despite emerging as an economic power, China remains far behind many countries if per capita GDP is taken into account.
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A look at the 10 largest economies in the world by Gross Domestic Product for 2009, according to the International Monetary Fund. Figures all are in U.S. dollars
United States $14.26 trillion
Japan $5.07 trillion
China $4.91 trillion
Germany $3.35 trillion
France $2.68 trillion
United Kingdom $2.18 trillion
Italy $2.12 trillion
Brazil $1.57 trillion
Spain $1.46 trillion
Canada $1.34 trillion
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China marches towards world's No. 2 economy
http://money.cnn.com/2010/08/16/news/international/japan_china/index.htm
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China 'overtakes Japan in economic prowess'
http://english.eastday.com/e/100817/u1a5396370.html
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China Passes Japan as Second-Largest Economy
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/16/business/global/16yuan.html
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Largest 2009 economies by gross domestic product
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100816/ap_on_bi_ge/us_china_surging_ahead_glance
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