RE and economic charts: 2010-10-03

Saturday, October 9, 2010

Jobs Decline Again in September With Unemployment Steady at 9.6% = Local Government Employment in U.S. Falls to Lowest Since 2006

[mEDITate-OR:
not see what you need to see...

First is the politically correct view of when this started and who is really responsible. Sorry, if that disturbs your view, somewhat.

The 2nd chart reminds U.S. of the fact that to get out of this mess we NEED to create a LOT more jobs than we are or have been, OR than it looks like we are going to, for years.

Duration of UI, lack of economic expansion, banks & corps whore-ding cash and not hiring OR giving it back to their stockholders.

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Jobs Decline Again in September With Unemployment Steady at 9.6%

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/10/jobs-decline-again-in-september-with-unemployment-steady-at-96/64280/
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Local Government Employment in U.S. Falls to Lowest Since 2006
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-08/local-government-employment-in-u-s-falls-to-lowest-since-2006.html
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What does 64,000 jobs mean?
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/10/what_does_64000_jobs_mean.html
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NYT: Biggest Local Cuts in 30 Years + Looking Back, Even More Jobs Lost + Grim News for Those Out of Job Market

[mEDITate-OR:

not see what Economix shows U.S. in the NYT
The first is Catherine's chart that is similar to CR's - showing U.S. how much deeper and longer this recession is than the prior ones. And, while the govt stimulus programs did help, they have not helped enough or are still working for U.S.
What the 2nd & 3rd charts show U.S. is that while private job losses, particularly in the RE industries in the sand states, started this mess downward, it is now local and state govts that are been destroyed. Your police, fire and teachers.
We are destroying the village and not even pretending that we meant to try to save it.
Ugly.

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Three-month change in local-government jobs.

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Employment Picture Dims as Government Cuts Back

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/09/business/economy/09jobs.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss

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Comparing Recessions: Job Recovery

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/08/comparing-recessions-job-recovery/

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Grim News for Those Out of Job Market

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/08/grim-news-for-those-out-of-job-market/?src=busln

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Biggest Local Cuts in 30 Years

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/08/biggest-local-cuts-in-30-years/

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Looking Back, Even More Jobs Lost

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/08/looking-back-even-more-jobs-lost/

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Unemployment stays at 9.6% as schools, governments slash jobs + only part-time or lower-paying jobs + jobs aren't coming back + lasts longer for Asian Americans

[mEDITate-OR:
miss the stunning coverage by the LATimes...
Very good, for a company that is almost bankrupt.

Disirregardless, this coverage by the LATimes is broad and deep. And, provides U.S. with a few charts that no other newspapers have.

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Unemployment stays at 9.6% as schools, governments slash jobs

Hiring growth in the private sector weakened and the economy lost a net 95,000 jobs in September, the Labor Department says, as the nation's unemployment outlook remained dim in the final jobs report before the midterm elections.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-jobs-report-20101009,0,2676543.story

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Millions can find only part-time or lower-paying jobs

Underemployed workers can't spend as much. Those individual hardships add up to a drag on the economic recovery.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-jobs-underemployed-20100907,0,6176613.story

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AMERICA OUT OF WORK

For many unemployed workers, jobs aren't coming back

The U.S. unemployment rate will remain elevated for years, experts say, a grim prospect for Americans who have exhausted their benefits.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-america-unemployment-mainbar-20100905,0,4447404.story

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Unemployment lasts longer for Asian Americans

Unemployment is lower among people of Asian heritage, but it drags on longer.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-asian-jobless-20100907,0,1053141.story

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Economy 101: How unemployment varies across groups = US lost 95,000 in September +64,000 in private sector -159,00 in public sector Broad unemployment rate jumps to 17.1%

[mEDITate-OR:
not see the various different views of the same numbers...

What is very telling to U.S. is that WHEN you start the chart shows U.S. a very different picture of where we are. And, what most chart show U.S. is that we ARE stuck in an "L" shaped jobless recovery.
The Gallup chart is different, for two reasons: 1st it claims that the UI rate is higher than anyone else does and 2nd it is being used by Faux News to show U.S. that we are worse off than even they claimed we are.
Below that "politically incorrect" chart is the AP summary of WHO is most affected by unemployment. While all of U.S. are equally is this mess, some of U.S. are in much worse shape than others.
What that list does NOT tell you is WHERE those people live.
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UNEMPLOYMENT RATE BY GROUP:

(Numbers in percentages)

White: 8.7

Black: 16.1

Hispanic: 12.4

Asian: 6.4

Adult men: 9.8

Adult women: 8

Teenagers: 26

20-24 years old: 14.8

25-54 years old: 8.7

55 and over: 7.2

No high school diploma: 15.4

High school graduates: 10

Some college: 9.1

College graduates: 4.4

DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT

Average length (weeks): 33.3

Jobless 6 months or more (pct.) : 41.7

JOB CHANGES BY SECTOR:

(number of jobs)

Private employers: 64,000

Government: -159,000

Manufacturing: -6,000

Construction: -21,000

Retail: 5,700

Financial activities: -1,000

Temporary help: 16,900

Health care: 32,000

Restaurants and bars: 34,000

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Economy 101: How unemployment varies across groups
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101008/ap_on_bi_ge/us_economy101_unemployment_by_the_numbers
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US lost 95,000 in September +64,000 in private sector
-159,00 in public sector = Broad unemployment rate jumps to 17.1%
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/US_economy/article_1020752_printer.shtml
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Thursday, October 7, 2010

Mortgages: One in Five Borrowers Will Default

[mEDITate-OR:

not see that "the tea leaves" do not support the Tea Party...

But, a disaster might lead to a very different type of Revolution.
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Risk is so high in today’s real estate market that private money has largely left the mortgage category. The retreat is most easily seen in the jumbo mortgage market. Total jumbo mortgage origination has fallen from a high of $650 billion in 2003 to 92 billion in 2009 (see the 3rd chart below). Government loans account for 90% of current originations.
“If government policy does not change, over 11.5 million borrowers are in danger of losing their homes (1 borrower out of every 5),"' the report said, which estimates the total of homes with a first mortgage at 55 million. "Politically, this cannot happen.
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Mortgages: One in Five Borrowers Will Default
http://seekingalpha.com/article/228440-mortgages-one-in-five-borrowers-will-default?source=dashboard_macro-view
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Job openings remain scarce for unemployed + Temp hiring is back. Is a jobs recovery next?

[mEDITate-OR:
miss that the chart heading is very different than the article's question.

Whatever..., you might want to believe.
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chart_temp_jobs2.top.gif

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Job openings remain scarce for unemployed
http://money.cnn.com/2010/10/07/news/companies/job_openings_hiring/index.htm
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Temp hiring is back. Is a jobs recovery next?
http://money.cnn.com/2010/10/06/news/economy/temp_jobs/index.htm
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The Recession, Poverty, and the Suburbs = Suburbs take hit as US poverty climbs in downturn + Help lags

[mEDITate-OR:
not see what many of U.S. are seeing...
a 2nd lost decade.

These article tell the story of the W years - since 2000.
What the posting below shows U.S. is that the economy is stuck - in neutral.
At the bottom of a RE and jobless mess.

Many now see that this, not just, might last for all of this decade.

Japan - doubled.
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Since 2000, suburbs have seen the number of poor residents increase by 37 percent--well above the national growth rate and more than double the pace of growth seen in the city poor population.
And while the second year of the Great Recession brought a similar magnitude of increases in both city and suburban poverty, by 2009 the suburbs were still home to 1.6 million more poor than cities.
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Additional findings:
_Poor people's requests to nonprofit groups for help buying food, paying bills and making housing payments generally jumped 30 percent between 2008 and 2009. About 3 out of 4 nonprofit groups reported more requests from people who had never sought help before.
_Almost half of the nonprofit groups serving the suburban poor reported they had lost substantial government or private-sector aid in the last year. Many of them were expecting additional cuts in 2011.
_Suburban nonprofit groups were often spread across multiple counties, cities or townships. That made it difficult to coordinate services across sprawling areas or obtain money, compared with cities where poverty was more concentrated.

_Private philanthropic support for nonprofit social service groups more often helped the poor in cities than in suburbs, due partly to a belief that cities needed more help
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The Recession, Poverty, and the Suburbs
http://www.tnr.com/blog/the-avenue/78242/the-recession-poverty-and-the-suburbs
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Suburbs take hit as US poverty climbs in downturn
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101007/ap_on_bi_ge/us_impoverished_suburbs
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Poverty rises in suburbs, help lags
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20101007/us_nm/us_usa_economy_suburbs_poverty
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Weekly jobless claims down 2.4% to 445,000 + Private sector lost 39,000 jobs in September: ADP

[mEDITate-OR:
believe whatever..., tomorrow...

What all of these charts show U.S. is that we are NOT expanding.

This is, whether or not you like it or not, a classic "L" shaped non-recovery.

Not just - like Japan = a lost decade.
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Weekly jobless claims down 2.4% to 445,000

http://www.housingwire.com/2010/10/07/weekly-jobless-claims-down-2-4-to-445000

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TrimTabs data shows US lost 65,000 jobs in September

http://www.housingwire.com/2010/10/06/trimtabs-data-shows-us-lost-65000-jobs-in-september

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Private sector lost 39,000 jobs in September: ADP

http://www.housingwire.com/2010/10/06/private-sector-lost-39000-jobs-in-september-adp

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Nearly 5 Jobless Workers Per Opening in August + BLS: Job Openings increase in August, Low Labor Turnover

[mEDITate-OR:
not see how badly outnumbered we are...
assuming, of course, you want a job...

These two charts - one from CR and one from NYT - show a very different view of the same JOLTS report.

What CR points out is that the number of new hires is almost equal to the number of new layoffs - both around 4 million. The problem is that new hires are NOT adding to the work force to re-absorb the people who are unemployed, nor the expansion in the population.
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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey