Consumer Credit Contracts Due to Student Loans

[mEDITate-OR:
not see the Devil...
in the details...
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JGBHimself says:

9 October 2011 at 1:52 am

First, Steven, this is the only serious discussion of the effects of student loans on this months numbers we have seen, and we have looked. Well done.

Second, there is another data set you might want to incorporate into these charts, namely the use of debit cards as opposed to credit cards.

True, this is skewered (sp?) by the swipe fee problems, but the huge increase in the use of debit cards and/or cash to pay for consumer goods and services is directly connected to the measurement of the deleveraging by some or most of U.S.

However, IF an increase in the use of "credit cards" is matched by a decrease in "debit card" use, then there may not really BE an increase in "credit", but only a change in the way we are paying for "stuff", from China, at Walmart, this month.

Like you, we have watched the decline in credit card balances, to attempt to see if that was caused by a decline in use, OR was caused by card cancellations and write offs. What we, too, watched was the huge shift to using debit cards.

What many of U.S. figured out was that using debit or cash eliminated all "late" and "overdraft" fees. Given the fact that the Big Bad Banksters make more money off those fees than they do off the interest that they charge, possibly WE are the real cause of all their financial problems:)

We "swiped" their fees; and now the evil empire is "swiping" back

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Consumer Credit Contracts Due to Student Loans
http://econintersect.com/wordpress/?p=14184
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Phoenix Home Price Index by Price Level

[mEDITate-OR:
think that all AZ's are equal...
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As John Wake points out this IS fascinating.
The two highest priced tiers stopped climbing earlier than the bottom tier.
AND, the bottom tier not only topped out higher
but, then dropped the most.
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What is also interesting is that the middle tier dropped less than the highest tier.
However, we MUST remember that this is Case-Shiller a repeat sales index
which means the foreclosures had a HUGE impact on the lowest tier.
And, that the sales of mid and higher tiers have collapsed.
No sales means NO records in CS to view.
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Tier Breakpoints (July 2011)
Low Tier – Up to $94,859
Middle Tier – $94,859 – $167,547
High Tier – $167,547 and up
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Phoenix Home Price Index by Price Level
http://www.arizonarealestatenotebook.com/2011/10/06/phoenix-home-price-index-by-price-level/
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Consumer borrowing dropped $9.5 billion in August + Contracts Due to Student Loans

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that "The Headlines" are telling you The Truth
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However, as EconIntersecs points out...
Student Loans were MUCH lower than before.
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It is student loans which distort the analysis as they grew ONLY 55% year-over-year this month
– down from a 70% annual growth last month.
Student loans this month were over 14% of total credit
– and accounted for one-half of consumer credit growth.
In some previous months, it has been literally the entire growth of consumer credit
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Why? What Happened?
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Consumer borrowing dropped $9.5 billion in August

largest amount since April 2010 

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/10/07/ap/business/main20117389.shtml

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August 2011 Consumer Credit Contracts Due to Student Loans

http://econintersect.com/wordpress/?p=14184

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Arizona jobs forecast in 2011, 2012 worse than originally projected + Census: Maricopa County on top of list for home vacancies

[mEDITate-OR:

not see that the vacancies almost equal the loss in population/jobs

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What is also interesting is that

this year the job gains are equal to 4.78%

and

next year equal to 9.23%

of the prior three years losses.

Or in two years AZ will recover 14.0% of the prior three years losses.

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In the next two years AZ will gain back less than were lost last year in 2011.
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In numbers 15,500 + 29,900 = 45,400

Losses were 324,000

Therefore we are still down by over 300,000

- IF you add in population growth.

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Translated = If we grow by this years rate it will take over 20 years to recover

But, if we grow by next years projection, it might take only 10 years

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Almost 14 percent of all homes are empty in Maricopa County

227,696 single-family homes, condominiums and apartments were empty

Tucson has about 230,000 housing units.

So Maricopa County's vacancies are the equivalent to an empty city the size of Tucson.

Maricopa County's population grew 24 percent

while its housing stock grew 31 percent.

In 2009..., Phoenix had more than 100,000 houses built in 2004-06 still sitting empty.

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Statewide, housing units increased 30 percent from 2000 to 2010.

The state's population grew 25 percent during the same time.

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Clark County, home to Las Vegas, actually had a higher vacancy rate of 14.9 percent.

But it is not among the nation's 10 most-populous counties.

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The state lost has 324,000 jobs since the recession began in December 2007

Arizona employers are expected to add more jobs than they cut in 2011

- the first year that has happened since 2007

Arizona is expected to gain 15,500 non-farm jobs in 2011, compared with last year

In 2012, the state is projected to gain 29,900 jobs over 2011

in Arizona's health care and private-education industries

projected to see 4.5 percent growth in 2011, adding 15,400 jobs,

and another 3.6 percent bump in 2012, up 12,900 jobs

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Census: Maricopa County on top of list for home vacancies
http://www.azcentral.com/business/realestate/articles/2011/10/07/20111007maricopa-county-tops-home-vacancies-list.html
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Arizona jobs forecast in 2011, 2012 worse than originally projected
http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/2011/10/06/20111006biz-arizona-jobs-forecast-worse-than-projected-brk06-ON.html
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