Labor Force Participation Rate: What will happen? + Participation rate Update + More on Labor Force Participation Rate

[mEDITate-OR:
not see, read nor understand the story thread this weekend...
by/from Jim@CR, and also by many others, including the Wall Street Journal.
--------
While we have been commenting on this almost as much as Jim has...
tis nice to see even the main stream media take notice.
Bluntly, not matter HOW much they cut the Senior's benefits...!!!
IF the number of U.S. paying into their retirement systems has permanently fallen to new normal lows, there simply will BE a "Japanese Problem" that we, too, will bedeviled to solve.
As Jim insists, we NEED a lot more jobs = people that are gainfully employed
AND receiving much higher salaries.
If this does not happen, soon...
we may become another dust bowl.
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Sudeep Reddy and Sara Murray at the WSJ wrote: Jobless Rate Falls Further 

A growing number of workers with health problems are applying for Social Security Disability Insurance benefits. The disability rolls, where many beneficiaries remain for life, have surged more than 14% since the recession began, to nearly 10.2 million in December 2010.

"We already know from the number of people who have entered the disability rolls that there's going to be a permanent hit to the labor force participation rate," said Lawrence Katz, a Harvard University economist. "That's both costly to them—they're going to be less happy—and costly to us to lose someone who could be a productive worker."

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Labor Force Participation Rate: What will happen?
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/11/labor-force-participation-rate-what.html
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Participation Rate Update
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/03/participation-rate-update.html
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More on Labor Force Participation Rate 
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/03/more-on-labor-force-participation-rate.html
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Jobless Rate Falls Further
Hiring Springs Back, But Data Mask a Troubling Rise in People Dropping Out of the Labor Force
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703580004576180181465416342.html
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WSJs Interactive charts
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703580004576180181465416342.html#project%3DPARTICIPATION1103
and
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703580004576180181465416342.html#project%3DJOBSHISTORY09%26articleTabs%3Dinteractive
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Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education, Diffusion Indexes

[mEDITate-OR:
miss The Fact that CR shows U.S. more of ourselves than even we put "outed there" on the net.
and
have a Gallary of economic charts that covers almost everything that matters...
and many charts that you cannot find, easily or at all, elsewhere.
--------
Remember, go to CR for the LARGE charts.
and
follow CR daily if possible.
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Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment
by Education, Diffusion Indexes
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/03/duration-of-unemployment-unemployment.html
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Employment Graph Gallery
http://cr4re.com/charts/charts.html#category=Employment
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February Employment Report: 192,000 Jobs, 8.9% Unemployment Rate + Employment Summary and Part Time Workers, Unemployed over 26 Weeks

[mEDITate-OR:
still not know that Jim@CR is The Gold Standard for employment charts
-----------
In posts below we provide similar charts and comments.
Please, compare the charts, and consider the views.
Theirs and mine.
-------
Remember, go to CR for the LARGE charts...
so at your age you can actually see them.
And, read his comments.
Such as this one:
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Summary
This wasn't a great report.
Heck, it wasn't a "good" report.
But it was a little better than most recent reports.
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February Employment Report: 192,000 Jobs, 8.9% Unemployment Rate
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/03/february-employment-report-192000-jobs.html
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Employment Summary and Part Time Workers, Unemployed over 26 Weeks
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/03/employment-summary-and-part-time.html
============

Mortgage interest rates - Dip Again, down for third straight week = 30-Year Fixed Is at 4.87%

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that IF rates dip a wee bit...
RE loans will increase for both REFIs and purchases.
Oh, ye, of too great a faith
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Mortgage interest rates - Dip Again, down for third straight week = 30-Year Fixed Is at 4.87%

http://www.worldpropertychannel.com/us-markets/residential-real-estate-1/freddie-mac-primary-mortgage-market-survey-pmms-long-term-fixed-rates-current-mortgage-rates-home-loans-bank-rates-frank-nothaft-3967.php

======

Full Jobs Recovery Now on Track For 2023

[mEDITate-OR:
believe that we are getting better n better, every day n every way...
-----------
Lets see, IF the recovery is to be judged by the W-Bush years, it will take U.S. more than another decade, until 2023.

However, IF the recovery is to judged by The Clinton Years, will take U.S. only 5 years, or until the end of Obama's 2nd term, but only if we give him one.

But, IF the recovery is expedited by Corporate America using their "stash of cash" to hire the maximum jobs, every single one of U.S. can happily vote against Obama, knowing that the newly elected Republican will be given all the credit for everyone now having a job!!!

Now, that's a real "Plan For American".
The Reagan Revolution will be firmly & permanently implanted, and live and grow forever!
And, we will all live happily ever after
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========
Full Jobs Recovery Now on Track For 2023
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/03/full-jobs-recovery-now-on-track-for-2023/72046/
==========

The Disappointing Jobs Situation + Average Length of Unemployment Reaches High of 37.1 Weeks

[mEDITate-OR:
find out, finally, how many people are adding themselves to our population...
but, also wonder where all the Mexicans went to...
----------
This 1st chart shows U.S. the Unmentionable fact that there ARE more people...
What we need to know is WHY will it go down and then back up.
But, right now what matters is that it is UP.
The 2nd chart is the Economix long term unemployed fact...
that many of U.S. have been out of work a LONG time.
And, that's only the ones we still count.
The 3rd article is, once again, FinFacts from Ireland, telling U.S.
more about ourselves than our own media does.
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========
The Disappointing Jobs Situation
http://seekingalpha.com/article/256468-the-disappointing-jobs-situation?source=dashboard_macro-view
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Average Length of Unemployment Reaches High of 37.1 Weeks
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/04/average-length-of-unemployment-reaches-high-of-37-1-weeks/
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US added 192,000 jobs in February - - 222,000 in private sector; Unemployment rate dipped to 8.9%
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1021786.shtml
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February Jobs Tally Decent but There's Still Risk

[mEDITate-OR:

miss out completely on the vastly different interpretations that the same data can be given...

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First, tis that of the President of Vice, the said Joseph Biden our time away...

What they think they see is what WAS when W left them holding "The Bag"

And, now, for the new, improved version designed just for your consumption...

MOG, but don't they look Good !!!

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Second, we see the three legged stool version of the shell game.

We moved it/them all around..., so can you tell U.S. where it is at?

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Third is the very sad truth..., about (y)our children and grandchildren.
They are out of work, they cannot and will not find jobs, for a very long time.
There is Good News, however...
For some of them their student loans don't have to be paid until they DO find work.
The Bad News, thou, is that they will move back home, with you, until...
And the very bad news is that while at college they unlearned how to take out the garbage.
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February Jobs Tally Decent but There's Still Risk
http://seekingalpha.com/article/256543-february-jobs-tally-decent-but-there-s-still-risk
==============

Employment Report: No Joy Here

[mEDITate-OR:
simply not see what they are not showing you...
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What these charts show U.S. is what we also discuss in the post below, and in my comment to Karl's chart & article.
The 1st & 3rd charts show U.S. that there is little to no change taking place.
We are in an "L" shaped jobless recovery.
What the 2nd & 4th charts show U.S. is that HUGE shift in the total number of U.S. that are employed at any job, and a huge number of U.S. that have simply withdrawn from working.
And, paying taxes.
This began at the beginning of W's term in office
leveled off, during the war(s)...
and then exploded again, when he left U.S., twisting slowly, slowly in the wind.
-------
As good as it was to rid ourselves of W...
twas as the man on TV said:  "But, it's gonna cost ya!"

========    Said The Karl:

Summary: The report did not show any material amount of acceleration; it is, for all intents and purposes, flat. The Household Survey showed some people going back to work, but in terms of percentage of the working-age population the needle did not move to any material degree. The problem continues to be people we don't count as unemployed but in fact are, and as such the statistical gerrymandering of the results will give both the left and right something to spin, but in point of fact there's no evidence of an economy that is recovering it's ability to generate both private income and tax revenues.

=========

JGBHimself

Mar 04 03:41 PM

Very interesting point, that is seldom discussed in all the hype about all that Federal Debt. IF the shift from being IN the labor force, to being OUTSIDE it, is the new normal; that means that we have possibly as many as 20+ million not paying into the Social Security, Medicare & Medicaid programs. THAT problem will now be on top of the problem that for the last two decades we have deliberately underfunded those programs.

We are now not unlike the state & local pension mess. Ignore the contributions that should be made, especially in good economic times, and you will be crushed when times turn bad. Ugly, Karl, really, really ugly.

But, as Max said to Agent 99: "I told you not to tell me."

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Employment Report: No Joy Here
http://seekingalpha.com/article/256474-employment-report-no-joy-here
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Unemployment rate drops to 8.9% in February on sharp increase in new jobs

[mEDITate-OR:
be like most of U.S. = see what you want to see...
------------
While this BLS report is vastly better than the last one
it may be as misleading
what they are trying to tell U.S. is that THIS month, Feb
there were as many jobs created as in the prior TWO months, Dec & Jan.
about 200K.
However, the population expands by 100K each month
So, the jobs in Jan & Dec were equal to the population growth.
and in Feb we provided 100K jobs...
for the 22 Million that are now without them.
And, 12,500 of those 100K were in California.
That's more than 12.5% of the new jobs
Did anyone notice..., in Cal?..., or anywhere else?
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But look at these two NYTimes presentations.
The top one suggests that we are all the way back to being "Normal" again.
the bottom one shows that we are now equal to the peak month last year.
As an ex-friend said to me when we told him our doctor had declared me "back to normal".
Frankly, said he, "we were all hoping for a little better than that !!!"
--------
Also from the NYTimes Economix blog is Ms C's long suffering job seeker's chart.
The length and depth of these jobs losses is stunning, and very unique.
Those left out, may be permanently lost, to U.S.
------------
A dismal thought:
If they never return
and never more pay into Social Security, Medicare & Medicaid...
and never more pay state & local & Federal taxes...
who will?
Are we "technically bankrupt" as a nation, and simply have not learned that, yet...
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California's January unemployment rate falls to 12.4%

As the nation's February unemployment report shows a stronger recovery,

California releases figures that say it added just 12,500 jobs in January.

The state's unemployment rate fell to 12.4%, from 12.5% in December.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-california-jobs-20110305,0,3591843.story

=========

Unemployment Rate Ticks Below 9% in February + How Many Americans Really Want Jobs?

[mEDITate-OR:
find that your neighbor has been declared "missing"...
even thou they are really still there, borrowing coffee n sugar...
and not understand..., them, or this economy.
-------------
First, two very good, analytical articles, with charts that are rising to the Sold & CRisk levels.
Second, however, there might be a slight problem here. If your numbers are correct, there were 2ooK jobs created in Dec & Jan combined, and 200K in Feb. OK. According to your chart in the other article, there are around 22 million people that would like to have a job, and do not or cannot get one.
But, if the "workforce" increases by 100K each month, that means that Jan & Dec combined only found jobs for the newbees; and Feb only found jobs for 100K of them. IF we are in such great shape that we are creating 100K jobs for the rest of U.S. = 22 Million; that means we create 1.2 million per year and it will take U.S. decades to fully recover.
As Elton John pointed out, it's the glasses that make things look so rosy.
------------
In both article, Daniel begins by showing U.S. the same, traditional unemployment charts.
THEN, he adds a few new ones that almost nobody else ever shows you.
That is when this gets interesting.
While the third chart of private sector jobs is nice, please read it with the above comment in mind.
The "Discourage Works" chart is notable - discourage works went down, bcuz they STOPPED looking. If they were still looking, and only "discouraged" BLS would keep counting them. Now, they are ignored - they do not statistically exist.
The last two charts are from U-9 and show BLS's estimate of the total number of unemployed. Once again, they have dropped BOTH those whose UI has run out, AND those who gave up looking.
They also have dropped: One, those who went back to school, AND two, those who took early SS retirement at age 62.
As bad as this view is, it ignore huge numbers of U.S.
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Unemployment Rate Ticks Below 9% in February
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/03/unemployment-rate-ticks-below-9-in-february/72030/
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How Many Americans Really Want Jobs?
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/03/how-many-americans-really-want-jobs/72045/
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Retail jobs are disappearing as shoppers adjust to self-service + U.S. retail sales climb 4.2% in February

[mEDITate-OR:
not see or even feel the undercurrents that a sweeping U.S. away...
-----------
The LATimes provided U.S. with this provocative economic observation & forecast - that there is a very interesting reason WHY there are no increase in jobs now.
As the makers of buggy whips will tell you, if only they had been able to wait out the economy until Playboy and Penthouse!!!
We have a number of Freash N Easy small grocery stores down here in AZ. They are what they say they are - but everything is pre-packaged. And, you do the scannin and baggin.
When gas was cheap, they began to build, when gas got expensive they were affected more than most, but they survived, and are expanding again.
Not unlike Starbucks.
Adjust, and live another day.
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One, example: coffee beans.
Single estate, single region, fair trade, whole or ground beans, at less than add prices for Millstone, SBC, Tully's, or even Starbucks. And, less than the others "house label" bag coffee.
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Vending machines offer a broader array of items for sale

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Chart: Jobless claims, retailers' sales

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Retail jobs are disappearing as shoppers adjust to self-service
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-robot-retail-20110304,0,6578831.story
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U.S. retail sales climb 4.2% in February
The increase, which beat expectations for a 3.6% rise compared with a year earlier, was spread across all major retail categories.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-0304-retail-sales-results-20110301,0,2547855.story
===========

Home Prices Could Decline 15-20% Further

[mEDITate-OR:
not also see that those who speak in numbers and charts N graphs also speak volumes in words.
-------
Sold on the Top has provided U.S. not only with this very informative chart, but has given U.S. and explanation of it's importance. Where it came from and who - Prof Shiller, of Case-Shiller - created it.
You need to read this and look at the full implication of the chart.
Don't have to like it, or even believe it...
but, you DO need to know about it.
And, if you want to SEE where it's likely to happen, bookmark the:
Scary Housing Dashboard
below.
-------   From Sold:
Some years back, Yale Professor Robert Shiller produced a long-run nominal home price index for the U.S. by fusing together data that had been gathered from a number of historical archives.
Shiller then adjusted the index for inflation revealing the very interesting fact that, in real terms, prices for U.S. homes changed very little over the span from 1890 to the mid-1990s.
This might come as a surprise to many since recent “common sense” notions held that homes were always a great investment carrying the implication that they must typically increase in value yet, the reality is that over the long run home prices must stay in-line with changes in the level of income (the source generally used to fund the home cost) or else typical households would not be capable of making a purchase.
Now as we are well aware, real home prices began to swell in the late 1990s reaching a peak in 2006 after having increased by over 80% nationally and even much more in some of the more frothy markets representing a massive and abrupt deviation from the long-run norm.
Since 2006 home prices have continually declined yet the current level is still significantly elevated over the level that had been typical for the 100 years prior to the bubble.
Further, it’s important to note that the ten year rate of change of real national home prices is still positive... we have yet to experience enough of a decline to erase all the gains of the prior ten years.
This paints a pretty clear picture… the national home price decline has further to run, possibly as much as 15%-20%, before real prices reach the long-run trend and a level more in-line with fundamentals.
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Home Prices Could Decline 15-20% Further
http://seekingalpha.com/article/256010-home-prices-could-decline-15-20-further
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Be sure to bookmark the Scary Housing Dashboard
http://www.blytic.com/DashboardView.aspx?dashboardid=08EC92B73AD14116A2DE9E736F7DDB87
==========

MBA - Mortgage Application Volume Down + Dip 6.5% = REFI down 6.5 and purchase down 6.1

[mEDITate-OR:
see yourselves going down for the count, again...
-----------
While the mass selling off of USTBills was driving up yields and the mortgage rates
suddenly, along with quiet in Libya, that stopped.
However, while the mortgage rates did drop back a little bit, there has been no similar rise in either refis or purchase apps.
Oddly, most of U.S. simply do not believe it, yet.
We do need it to continue.
So, it probably won't.
---------
But, these Sold on Top chart show the devastating effects of the RE collapse.
Probably better than anyone else's.
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MBA - Mortgage Application Volume Down + Dip 6.5%
http://www.worldpropertychannel.com/us-markets/residential-real-estate-1/weekly-mortgage-applications-survey-the-mortgage-bankers-association-market-composite-index-new-mortgages-lowest-mortgage-rates-3959.php
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Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – March 02 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/03/reading-rates-mba-application-survey.html
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Demand for home loans declines, Mortgage Bankers Assn. says
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2011/03/demand-for-home-loans-declines-mortgage-bankers-assn-says.html
--------   AND
http://www.mbaa.org/NewsandMedia/PressCenter/75847.htm
=============

Arizona's jobless rate worse than reported in 2009-10 + Arizona's revised job data gloomy

[mEDITate-OR:
not be absolutely stunned by this "Revelation"...
not only has the rate not been less than the national average, as we were all told...
but, it has been above both the national average & 10% for two years.
--------------
While that is as stunning admission, what is also interesting is that tis not AZ that made the mistake and revisions, twas the Federal Labor numbers.
So, even if AZ was telling the Truth, they couldn't due to faulty "national numbers"
Even more odd, is the fact that Col and Nev were also revised.
Beginning in June 08. Some reasonable explanation form BLS is required here.
Two sand states - the worst hit in the RE collapse - out of four have been UNDER reporting how bad it really was.
MOG.
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The real unemployment

Month	As reported then	As recalculated now	U.S.
9-Jan	8.00%	8.20%	7.80%
9-Feb	8.30%	8.60%	8.20%
9-Mar	8.70%	9.00%	9.60%
9-Apr	9.00%	9.30%	8.90%
9-May	9.20%	9.60%	9.40%
9-Jun	9.30%	9.80%	9.50%
9-Jul	9.40%	10.00%	9.50%
9-Aug	9.50%	10.20%	9.70%
9-Sep	9.40%	10.30%	9.80%
9-Oct	9.30%	10.30%	10.10%
9-Nov	9.30%	10.40%	9.90%
9-Dec	9.20%	10.40%	9.90%
10-Jan	9.20%	10.30%	9.70%
10-Feb	9.50%	10.20%	9.70%
10-Mar	9.60%	10.10%	9.70%
10-Apr	9.50%	10.10%	9.80%
10-May	9.60%	10.00%	9.60%
10-Jun	9.60%	10.00%	9.50%
10-Jul	9.60%	9.90%	9.50%
10-Aug	9.70%	9.90%	9.60%
10-Sep	9.70%	9.80%	9.60%
10-Oct	9.50%	9.80%	9.70%
10-Nov	9.40%	9.60%	9.80%
10-Dec	9.40%	9.60%	9.40%
11-Jan	9.60%	9.60%	9.00%

Source: Arizona Department of Commerce

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Sector employment in 1,000s

Sector	Jan-11	At its peak*
Total nonfarm	2,362.20	2,713.60
Manufacturing	148.3	187.4
Natural resources & mining	10.7	14.3
Construction	106.2	247.5
Trade, transportation, utilities	468.5	549.2
Information/ 36.0	55.6
Financial activities	160.9	187.2
Professional & business services	330.2	408.7
Education & health services	350.7	323.2**
Leisure & hospitality	252.6	279.1
Other services	85.4	102
Government (including public education)	412.5	449

* Different sectors have different peak dates

** Prior peak in October 2008

Source: Arizona Department of Commerce

===
Arizona's jobless rate worse than reported in 2009, 2010
http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/arizona/eastvalleytribune.com/arizona/article_baa833e6-45bf-11e0-b164-001cc4c002e0.html
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Arizona's revised job data gloomy
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/2011/03/04/20110304biz-jobs0304.html
======