[mEDITate-OR:
assume that every body knows the answer to this very nice question...
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Said you: "The number of people leaving the workforce will grow as many Americans retire."
Asked we: Are you not also aware that hundreds of thousands, possibly over a million, people above 62 were forced into early SS? First, they are not "going" to retire someday, they already have. Second, IF the economy ever does begin to grow, should we assume that those people will never, ever seek jobs back to supplement their reduced SS income? Why?
As those nearing 62 also find themselves out of work, with no net worth, & exhausted or cut off unemployment, will they also take early SS retirement when eligible? If the economy does NOT recover, how many MORE of U.S. will withdraw from the labor force - Not contributing income or SS or unemployment taxes, AND collecting SS and Medicaid and Medicare?
Asked we: Should we not cut govt spending even more in anticipation of that lost revenue? IF the goal is to Kill The Beast - why NOT drive a stake through its and our hearts?
Asked we: Are you not also aware of the huge numbers of U.S. who went back to school, and therefore withdrew from the labor force and been "removed" from being counted? Whether the economy does recover or not, should we assume that they will not return to looking for jobs?
To assume that ONLY 95,000 new jobs are needed, is as economically silly as the "Old", reduced 150,000 number assumption was.
As Bill points out IF all you want to do is maintain the status quo unemployment number, you need 250,000 more jobs per month. IF you want to reduce unemployment to 8.2% you will need 350,000 more jobs per month.
But, what IF we want to reduce unemployment back to 6%,AND create jobs for those who have lost their jobs and currently want a one, AND create jobs for the additional students that will be coming back out of colleges and trade schools, AND make it possible for early retirees to supplement their SS?
"How much up is that?": asked Seinfeld, as a joke, of course.
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| Jobs needed over next 12 months to hold unemployment rate constant | Current | Projections |
|---|
| BLS | CBO | CBO modified2 | Participation Rate Unchanged |
| Jun-11 | Jun-12 | Jun-12 | Jun-12 |
| Civilian noninstitutional population, 16 and over (millions) | 239.5 | 242.8 | 241.3 | 241.3 |
| Participation Rate (Percent) | 64.1% | 64.6% | 64.6% | 64.1% |
| Labor Force (millions) | 153.4 | 156.8 | 155.9 | 154.7 |
| Employed (millions) | 139.3 | 142.4 | 141.5 | 140.4 |
| Unemployed (millions) | 14.1 | 14.4 | 14.3 | 14.2 |
| Unemployment Rate | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.2% |
| Jobs needed to hold unemployment rate constant (millions) | | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| Jobs needed per month | | 260,000 | 187,000 | 95,000 |
|
| Lower Unemployment Rate to 8.2% | | CBO | CBO Modified2 | Participation Rate Unchanged |
|---|
| Unemployment Rate | | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% |
| Employed (millions) | | 144.0 | 143.1 | 142.0 |
| Unemployed (millions) | | 12.9 | 12.8 | 12.7 |
| Jobs need to lower unemployment rate to 8.2% (millions) | | 4.7 | 3.8 | 2.7 |
| Jobs needed per month | | 391,000 | 316,000 | 224,000 |
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How many jobs are needed over the next year to keep the unemployment rate steady?
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/07/how-many-jobs-are-needed-over-next-year.html
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How Many New Jobs Will Stop Unemployment from Climbing?
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/07/how-many-new-jobs-will-stop-unemployment-from-climbing/241753/
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Just 58.2% of American Adults Are Employed
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/07/chart-of-the-day-just-582-of-american-adults-are-employed/241773/
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