Has Stimulus Distorted Housing Bottom?

[mEDITate-OR:
think that they have thought of everything....
and fully accounted for it.
Much like our US$ in Afghanistan.
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JGBHimself says:

3 September 2011 at 11:28 pm

Setting aside the fact that we find you, and almost all of your postings, to be far superior to almost everything else we read, we were shocked, absolutely SHOCKED, to see you feeling sorry for yourself, when you said: "But it just makes you mad when money is wasted on an ineffective stimulus – and it clouds your ability to trend the data."

You po' baby. Yo' "models" didn't work they way you thought they would!!!

Brings tears to my eyes.

No - not that your models didn't work; but that you totally missed what did NOT happen - aka, the dog didn't bark.

Steve, let's - you, me and U.S. - try to get serious. Well, for the moment.

What if W had NOT "nationalized" FMae&FMac, who were at the time doing over 85% of ALL loans made to U.S.? What IF China's US$ 35 Billion a month subsidy of home loans had NOT been replaced by the FED/Treasury? What IF the total RE market had collapsed/frozen and there were NO home loans made at any price to any of U.S.?

Have you modeled/analyzed THIS one?

How many of the outstanding/overhanging inventory of new construction homes were sold to "brand new home buyers tax credit" purchasers? Do you know? Who would have bought them, if they had not? Anybody? What if that "absolutely NOT 'hidden' inventory" still existed?

How many more builders, subs N supplier, local bank construction lenders - RE agents, escrows, title cos, mortgage brokers, et al, et ux - would have been totally wiped out?

Have you modeled/analyzed THAT one?

True, home builders would have had even more & larger losses to write off under their new IRS rules. Steve, do you have ANY idea how much THAT little chunk of change is?

JMC, we might have a balanced budget today if we had not given that money away.

(and, yes, Steve, that is, and is not, a joke)

What even your own charts show U.S. is that post hoc, ergo propter hoc - AFTER the "nationalization" and the Buyer's tax credits, the steep decline stopped.

Permanently, of course not. But, for you to assume that "nothing much happened", other than them messing with Yo' charts, is very much in horror (sp?).

Tis, in fact, The Fact that they DID mess up "your charts" that we are not in a full depression. And, yes, we do know that is "argumentative". Prove me wrong.

Even more to the point, and we are seriously complementary here, can you use your "charts" to show U.S. what w/c/should not have happened IF they had done nothing?

To argue that nothing was changed, you are obligated to show U.S. what would have occurred if nothing had happened.

Tis like being in college, once again; and saying that since wearing a condom was proven to prevent your being able to "feel everything on your Far Right side", that if only you had NOT worn one, nothing significantly bad would ever have happened.

Non post hoc, ergo propter non hoc.

(or something like that:)

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Has Stimulus Distorted Housing Bottom?
http://econintersect.com/wordpress/?p=12598
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On The Margin: Total Unemployment July + Envisioning Employment Aug+ Recovery-less Recovery: Unemployment Duration Aug + Full Time Workers Fully Under Pressure: August

[mEDITate-OR:
be oblivious to the striking differences between Bill@CR and Dan@Atlantic
and Over the Top @ PE.
Each has a very, often unique view of the same data
and that each gives U.S. very different insights.
---------
OtTop looks more at the total picture...
favoring U-6 data over the very narrow U-3
and
as you will see in the post below
the Food Stamp consequences of "being unemployed".
-------
This does NOT mean that Bill@CR does not see the seriousness of our little predicament...
you only have to read his comments in his articles this month to see that...
but, he is trying very hard to BE objective with his charts.
------
Dan@Atlantic points to his own point of view, with is usually very accurate.
----------
OtTop is a wee skoshi bit more opinionated.
Not at all wrong, but much more pointed.
One might call him "more colorful"...
might one not!
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On The Margin: Total Unemployment July 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/09/on-margin-total-unemployment-july-2011.html
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Recovery-less Recovery: Unemployment Duration August 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/09/recovery-less-recovery-unemployment.html
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Full Time Workers Fully Under Pressure: August 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/09/full-time-workers-fully-under-pressure.html
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Envisioning Employment: Employment Situation August 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/09/envisioning-employment-employment.html
========

On The Stamp: Food Stamp Participation June 2011

[mEDITate-OR:
forget the 2nd rule of The Law:
IF you DO know the answer to The Question...
and do NOT want to hear it...
be GD sure that you do not ask it.
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or...
ask yourselves:
What would Jesus do...
about the least of these?
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Over the Top @ PE
provides U.S. with this unique view.
No body else talks, or shows U.S. about These People.
--------
The Good News is...
that even if they ARE Christians...
they cannot buy wine.
So, all those Catholic Mexicans, in Arid-zone-Ah
are being forced to attend Communion.
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On The Stamp: Food Stamp Participation June 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/09/on-stamp-food-stamp-participation-june.html
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Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education and Diffusion Indexes + Employment Summary, Part Time Workers, and Unemployed over 26 weeks

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that we are all in this together...
and NOT
understand that inequality does not end with CEO's salaries.
---------
Setting aside the very real question of whether or not it still makes any economic sense to "buy" an education in this economy...
the issue remains is what is happening to you if you DOo have one, and what if you do NOT.
-----
later we will post PE-Over the Top's charts on these issues
but, see what Bill@CR is telling U.S...:
Good people, who finished HS and went to work "In Detroit", etc, are now "expendable".
And, they have absolutely NO where to go.
---------
Obama may need to go back to Church - the old one.
Then, he may SEE the level of desperation in the Black Male community.
----
Do you find it as odd as we do...
that the White Male-Tea Party community - and it IS a community of think alikes - all believe that They are much worse off than the Blacks are.
Or, maybe they could give a Shiite less about The Blacks...
and now see that the Mexicans are really doing to 'em...
what the Blacks were trying to do.
-------
Of course, this has absolutely NOTHING to do with college football or basketball.
We did NOT ask you whether or not ANY Southern university sports team c/w/should win..., without a majority of Black athletes.
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Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education and Diffusion Indexes
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/09/duration-of-unemployment-unemployment.html
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Employment Summary, Part Time Workers, and Unemployed over 26 weeks
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/09/employment-summary-part-time-workers.html
=======

CR = August Employment Report: 0 Jobs (unchanged), 9.1% Unemployment Rate

[mEDITate-OR:
pretend that this is NOT abnormal...!
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While we usually post CR's charts fit to this blog
these two "beginning" chart NEED to be seen as they are.
--------
Bill@ CR was one of the first to point out that the "Participation Rate" had severely shrunk.
This 1st chart is his new view of unemployment seen through the prism of Participation.
Great work, once again.
-----------
The 2nd chart is his unique view of how bad this really is.
Only Ms C at Economix-NYT regularly shows U.S. this absolute disaster.
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Enjoy, you Devil, you.
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=========
CR =
August Employment Report: 0 Jobs (unchanged), 9.1% Unemployment Rate
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/09/august-employment-report-0-jobs.html
=========

Zero Jobs: In August, the Worker Recovery Stopped Cold + Recovery Returns: What You Need to Know About the Economy in July + August's Big Reversal for Manufacturing and Retail Jobs

[mEDITate-OR:
miss out on the fact that Dan@Atlantic has returned from vacation...
fully refreshed.
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While this is very good
you do need to remember that he is also ignoring those who fell off the turnip truck.
And, while his "explanations" are more than we usually get from Bill@CR or from Over the Top...
they are less thorough than from Dirk TBFIL
---------
What Dan is telling U.S. is that as bad as the labor stats are
the rest of the economic signals are mixed.
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However, you DO need to read Dan's 3rd article.
THAT will set you back a few paces.
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The Bad: The "Establishment Data"

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The Slightly Less Bad News: "Household Data"
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Zero Jobs: In August, the Worker Recovery Stopped Cold
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/09/zero-jobs-in-august-the-worker-recovery-stopped-cold/244480/
--------------
Recovery Returns: What You Need to Know About the Economy in July
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/09/recovery-returns-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-economy-in-july/244450/
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August's Big Reversal for Manufacturing and Retail Jobs
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/09/augusts-big-reversal-for-manufacturing-and-retail-jobs/244496/
==========

5 Question Raised by the Government's Coming Mortgage Lawsuits + Government Going After Banks for Shoddy Mortgage Securities

[mEDITate-OR:
not ask the questions that Dan did not ask...
and should have.
So, without any further "adieu", to you...
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JGBellHimself
The short answers are:
The data was now available, very, very, absolutely not, and yes.
The 1st Q is not as simple as you suggest that it is: one, your W "nationalized" the game - which meant that not only did the CEOs change, but the legal team did to. And, when FHFA was not placed directly under the Executive, they are quasi-independant - able to make their own decisions based upon The Law, the economics, and the possible retention of  their jobs and pensions.
What is MOST significant however was the receipt of The Docs from the subpoenas that were issued. You do remember do you not, that The Big Bad Banksters did try to stonewall? With people like Yves telling/showing them where to look and what to look for, they demanded, and got, "The Evidence".
Some believe that it is perfectly OK to sue even if you don' t have the evidence in hand - by assuming that you will be able to find it, someday, some way. Oddly, some Govt lawyers prefer to assemble at least a prima facie case before they file.
And, that is what happened here. They went and got The Stuff, took the time to look it over, and then filed.
But, not to worry, Dan, "They" will try to "plea bargain"; and if that doesn't work they will ask for a Presidential Pardon. Good only knows they will have paid enough in the next 13 months to get one.
Does that mean this was not a quasi-political decision? Are there ANY decisions made in DC that are not (and, no, that was not a question).

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JGBellHimself
Said you re Q 3: "As other investors file similar suits, uncertainty may again begin to cloud the financial sector..."
Point out we: NYLife, Metropolitan, and other insurance COs have already sued. So have numerous state and local pension plans, like Calpers. The strength of their cases are significantly made better by the "revelations" that the Federal Subpoenas produced. Will they piggyback? Who knows, why they would not.

This does not address the fraud in the origination paperwork, nor the fraud in the foreclosure paperwork, nor does it directly address the private packaging of RE mortgage packages - some US$ 2.5 Trillion totally outside, and mostly before, FMae and FMac.

It will, however, directly affect those cases. Once someone shows the fraud, and a decision is granted, the stampede for summary judgments will begin.

But, not to worry, Dan, most of those bad ARMs and subprimes were "covered" by PMI! And, then there are the truly real backstoppers - all those credit default swaps. Investment Banksters are such amazing creatures, aren't they, Dan.

So, what we might actually get is "certainty" -

"They did the crime, now they have to pay back The Dime".

(who was it that said that)

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JGBellHimself

In your last question, you ask:

"Did banks really manage to execute a grand conspiracy, in unison, to defraud these companies by intentionally and deeply obscuring the truth?"

Ask we:

What part of the Wall Street mortgage banksters' US$ 2.5 Trillion in bad ARMs and subprime RE loans do you really not understand?

The "origination" of  no-doc, no income, so-called "liar loans"? By Countrywide, WAMU, Wichovia, New Century, etc.?

The "packaging" of those bad loans into "securitized" investments - knowing they were bad, and then betting that they would fail?

The selling of those "securitized" investment packages to insurance co's, private AND public pensions, and not just a few 401Ks of U.S. - earning for themselves huge salaries, bonuses, and perks - aka, wine (or straight malts), women (or men) and siren songs, all through the night.

The purchase of forged and fraudulent docs to "cover up" their gross negligence. The problem was NOT merely that they were "robo" signed - twas that they were false - and they KNEW they were false.

And, after doing all THAT - with private mortgage securities - they did it again, publicly, to FMae+FMac.

Of course, tis all China's fault!!!

When they told W that they wouldn't buy anymore RE securities from U.S., the House of Cards collapsed.

Who, now in Hell, asked 'em?

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JGBellHimself

Dan, your question about the scope of this lawsuit is very good.

Hardly anyone is talking about this. Good on ya. What, precisely, are they suing about? IF it is only the narrow issue of the SEC "false statements" and/or fraud, the recovery might BE very narrow. Not GD likely.

However, IF they ask for "consequential damages", we enter into a brave new world. That would raise the question of how much in TOTAL "equity value" has been lost due to their fraud. And, that could extend, not only to the RE loans that they sold FMae&FMac, but to ALL of the RE loans made during the "dead years" in the sand states.

As you know the Wall Street investment banksters sold US$ 2.5 Trillion in RE loans to U.S. that have almost all gone bad. What that also did was destroy the home equity value of every single home around those bad RE loans.

While your lookin at FMae+FMac is great fun, maybe you should take a close(r) look at the Wall Street investment banksters' RE loan losses.

What is the current status of THAT little "game", Dan?

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5 Question Raised by the Government's Coming Mortgage Lawsuits

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/09/5-question-raised-by-the-governments-coming-mortgage-lawsuits/244488/

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Government Going After Banks for Shoddy Mortgage Securities

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/09/government-going-after-banks-for-shoddy-mortgage-securities/244503/

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LPS: Average Loan in Foreclosure Is Delinquent for Record 599 Days

[mEDITate-OR:
miss "the Game" that's goin on..., out there.
-------------
New delinquencies are down
foreclosures are about the same
and long-term delinquencies are huge.
They be play'n wid U.S.
-------------
in-foreclosure rate at 4.11% is barely below the peak rate of 4.21% in March 2011.
There are still a large number of loans in this category (about 2.16 million)
- and the average loan in foreclosure has been delinquent for a record 599 days!
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what is happening is a large number of loans each month
have been moving from "in foreclosure" back to "90+ days delinquent" status
- so the number of loans "in foreclosure" hasn't increased recently.
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the surge in shorter duration loans.
This is probably being driven by two factors:
1) older borrowers are hoping to pay off their loans as part of their retirement planning and are taking out 15 year mortgages, and
2) many jumbo borrowers are probably taking out 5 year loans with a balloon payment since 30 year jumbo rates are much higher.
----------
So, let's U.S. ask This Question:
Where are the loans located that are being moved back from "foreclosure" into "90+ days delinquent"
This matters, a lot.
Bcuz, if this is in states where foreclosures are selling to all cash investor buyers - like AZ and Nev
that might explain why the numbers of "foreclosure sales" appears to going down.
IF, however, this in the states where their are huge backlogs - such as Fla & NYC
that simply means that it will take them MUCH longer to work through the problem.
Very different pictures, very different results - on the ground.
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LPS: Average Loan in Foreclosure Is Delinquent for Record 599 Days
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/08/lps-average-loan-in-foreclosure-is.html
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Case Shiller: in June

[mEDITate-OR:

cry yourself to sleep at nights...

Every single city in the CS cities chart is down from last year - except Atlanta, Ga.

Three Cal cities were getting better, are now getting worse - Frisco, LA and San Diego
- with SanD much worse.

Only One (1) city is above their peak low - Washington DC - Go Figure!

Oddly, LA is very close - explain that one, too.

So, almost every city has seen five (5) straight years of declining prices
AND they are now at their NEW peak bottom.

And

still falling.

  

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Case Shiller: Home Prices increased in June
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/08/case-shiller-home-prices-increased-in.html
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