Friday, December 16, 2011

Why Shouldn't People Just Default? + So When Should You Default on Your Mortgage?

[mEDITate-OR:
miss out on two very good analyses of the moral and financial dilemnas faced by those caught up in the sand states RE mess...
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However, as we point out to Megan, she missed something.
Large.
========
JGBHimself 

First, your "friends" in the mortgage & investment banking industry created US$ 2.5 Trillion in very bad ARMs and subprime RE mortgages in the sand states of Cal, Nev, fla and AZ. 
ALL of those bad RE loans are now more than 50% underwater, in or already back out of foreclosure, or through BKs.
Some 85% of those bad RE loans are now defunct in the sand states.
THEY NO LONGER EXIST.

Second, most of those RE loans were "speculative", and there were two kinds of them.
As a new NY Fed report shows U.S. most of them were "investors", buying multiple homes speculating on the huge appreciated values.
ALL OF THOSE PEOPLE HAVE LONG SINCE WALKED AWAY FROM THEIR BAD INVESTMENTS

The other "speculators" were those with no reason to buy those home - except that with nothing down, no payments and doing nothing except making Countrywide, WAMU, Wichovia, and New Century very rich.., expected to become very rich themselves by selling a hugely appreciated home in a couple'a years.
THOSE PEOPLE HAVE LONG SINCE LOST THEIR HOMES

So, Megan, WHO, precisely, is left out there?

Third, surrounding those bad ARMs and subprimes are people who obtained "conventional" RE loans - put down 20% in order to buy a home in order to work at Boeing or Intel in AZ.
Beginning school teachers, firemen, and police officers, too.
As they say in Canada,... those people are really Pucked.
But, of course, you don't give a GD about "Those People" do you Megan?

Fourth, all of the miscreants you condemn to financial death have already walked, Scot free
The only ones left, that appear to offend you, are those who played by the rules you say should be "inviolate".
WAMU's Kerry Kissinger will really love you, Megan.
Those People will not.
------------
JGBHimself 

Setting aside, for the moment, that your first article merely set up a "straw man" so you could return and appear to be "a reasonable man"...

What you still did not address is The Fact that in the Great Recession, in the bubble boom sand states, the worst of the worst have already skated away scott free - both the sneaky investors and the other "po'  'ol" scofflaws.

Now, after all the really bad guys got away..., you think that morally the door should have been closed, on them. How nice. And, so timely.

And, you think that morally any one left is reprehensible for doing what they got away with.
At least we know which side you are on.

Today, the SEC charges the Execs of FMae and FMac. How nice is that.
As W would say to them:
"WE didn't promise YOU a Rose Garden!
when we "nationalized" you for the Chinese!"

Where, however, are the SEC charges filed against the Exec of the Wall Street banksters who floated US$ 2.5 Trillion worth of very bad ARMs and subprimes on U.S.?

With those loans now worth less than 50 cents on the dollar, so,  in about 3 years they skewered (sp?) U.S. out of more than US$ 1.25 Trillion.
And, they weren't even Congressmen.

Where are the SEC charges filed against the Execs of Countrywide, WAMU, Wichovia and New Century who "originated" all those terrible RE loans?

And, WAMU's Kerry Killinger & two other execs "get off" for only US$ 64 million - about 2o million each - paid by WaMu's directors' and officers' (D&O) insurance?

So, you think some poor smuck paying on a 50% underwater RE conventional loan, they got paying 20% down at the highth of the bubble, would be IM-moral (as in not) to take a walk?

Kerry will truly LOVE you, Megan...; the rest of U.S. not
=======
Why Shouldn't People Just Default?
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/12/why-shouldnt-people-just-default/250059/
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So When Should You Default on Your Mortgage?
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/12/so-when-should-you-default-on-your-mortgage/250071/
========

Key Measures of Inflation mostly slow in November

[mEDITate-OR:
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==========
Key Measures of Inflation mostly slow in November
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/key-measures-of-inflation-mostly-slow.htm
=======

The problem of the shifting market

[mEDITate-OR:
confuse yourself..., completely
-----------
First, a "comment":
--
First, is that there has been a very large drop in REO listings, but there also is a very large number of unlisted REOs - about a years supply, it looks like.

The supply of REO can, and will, be, replenished for quite a while yet.

So, the number of REO sales must, and did, decline.

But, there is evidence that the listing prices were about US$ 20K under market for all cash sales. The Lenders were buying "cash".
For example, BKofA was recently told that they had to build up their "capital position" - that takes cash.

Second, when the REO sales dropped, that removed the bottom 10 to 20% of the lowest priced homes.

What then happens statistically is that the "average" of the remaining homes sold must, and did, go up. 

But, that does NOT mean that home prices are now going up.
What it means is the cheapest homes are not being sold anymore.

That is very different.

Third, "short sales" have gone up about as much as foreclosures have gone down.

Might sound good, but what that really means is that the home owner/seller took a little less of a hit than if they walked away; and the bank/lender took a little less of a hit than they would if they foreclosed.

So, while the prices for "short sales" might LOOK like they are going up, they also might not be, in fact.
------
Second, some "statistical theory" behind that.
-----------
Assume that there are only three homes that sell in one month, worth 1, 2 and 3

Assume that the next month only two home sell.

If the one that does not sell is 3, then
total sales are down by 50%
and the average sales price is down by 25%

If the one that does not sell is 2
then total sales are down by 1/3rd
but the average sales price is unchanged.

If the one that does not sell is 1
then total sales are only down by 16.6%
but the average sales price is now UP by 25%
----------
Today, we know that foreclosures are down by 1/2
and that the average sale prices of them are about US$ 100K
and we know that the number of sales is about the same.
-----------
So, using our example, the 3 sales are now of homes worth 2, 3 and 3

Therefore, what is happening in the market is:
total sales are still 3 homes = no change
but they are now worth 8 and are UP by 1/3rd
but the average sales price is no longer 2, but is now up by 2.
and has increased by 16.6%

What we can now declare, with impunity, that:
home prices in Phoenix are now UP by 16.6%
and that total home sales are UP by an astounding 1/3rd.
------------
And, how do we KNOW that...
in the biblical sense, of course...
bcuz the numbers never lie, and that is what they are telling U.S.

The bottome line, however, is that IF the sales prices are in fact "repeat sales"
all those numbers tell U.S. absolutely nothing
about whether prices are heading up
or are falling further down

Bcuz, that is measured by looking at when the home last sold.
Homes that sold last in ought-no-6 probably dropped in value by over 50%
But, a home that last sold in only the last year...
might have gone up or down - slightly
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The simple blunt Truth, to be "Frank" with you...
is that no body knows "No think!"
Sorry, about
=========

Thursday, December 15, 2011

Hotels: Occupancy Rate increases 3.2% year-over-year

[mEDITate-OR:
think that having this many empty rooms "at the inn" in time for Christmas...
is very good news.
Your relatives do not have to sleep in YOUR bedroom.
except for Aunt Alice, of course.
---------
So, if you don't understand this...
"Go ask Alice"
The one in the Looking Glass.
---------

========
Hotels: Occupancy Rate increases 3.2% year-over-year
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/hotels-occupancy-rate-increases-32-year.html
========

Housing: REO and Mortgage Delinquencies = Lawler on FHA: Slow Pace of Conveyances, Solid Sales Pushes SF Inventory to Lowest Level since mid-2008

[mEDITate-OR:
find the FHA "corrections" very puzzling...., to be sure...
---------
What we are now being told is that the FHA numbers were "strange"
and that even after the new "corrections" they still are strange.
However, what Bill@CR and Lawler have done for U.S.
is to up date the almost total REO numbers.
---------
In the 1st chart we see that the PLS - Wall Street Banksters "securitized" RE loan packages...
have declined sharply.
How may of them still exist in the sand states of Cal, Nev, Fla & AZ is not clear.
We think they are almost gone in AZ,
down substantially in Cal and Nev
and still piled up behind the robo-signing mess in Fla
-------
In the 2nd chart we see that the Agency - FMae+FMac+FHA - REOs are down
but they still are huge in numbers, and many might still be in the sand states
we simply do not know.
----------
In the 3rd chart we can see that what is IN the REO listings is way down
but, what is in the 90+ day bucket is still more than enough to RE-FILL the REO listings.
And, the 30+ day lates are increasing - a lot !!!
---------
In the 4th chart we see proof that the REO listing are being fed...
the new acquisitions are about equal to the current dispositions.
Bluntly, they add them when they sell'm.
-----------
In AZ the listing prices appear to be taking a US$ 20K haircut, for "all cash buyers".
In a related story BkofA was just told that they either firmed up their balance sheet - with cash - or risked being taken over by the FDIC
----------

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=========
Lawler on FHA: Slow Pace of Conveyances, Solid Sales Pushes SF Inventory to Lowest Level since mid-2008
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/lawler-on-fha-slow-pace-of-conveyances.html
---------
Housing: REO and Mortgage Delinquencies
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/housing-reo-and-mortgage-delinquencies.html
=========

Foreclosures = RealtyTrac reports 14% dip, but new wave expected + Scheduled home auctions hit nine-month high = Seasonal pullback in foreclosure activity by lenders and mortgage servicers

[mEDITate-OR:
see a bag half empty, being filled up, again.
------------
Some, stopped evicting over the Christmas Holidays...
but they did NOT stop any foreclosure proceedings.
Therefore, AFTER the Joyous Season...
there will be another spike in foreclosure evictions.
-------
As we learned to say in Vietnam:
"Incoming."
----------

----------
At the end of September, 10.7 million,
or 22.1 percent of all U.S. homes with a mortgage, were underwater
----------
224,394 U.S. properties received a foreclosure-related notice last month
down 3 percent from October and down 14 percent from November last year
--------------
Nevada had the nation's highest foreclosure rate last month
with one in every 175 households receiving a foreclosure notice
— more than three times the national average.
California, which alone accounted for 28 percent of all U.S. homes receiving a foreclosure notice last month had the second-highest foreclosure rate.
Arizona was third
-----------
California cities also account for nine of the top 10 metro areas
when ranking cities by foreclosure rate.
The only exception was Las Vegas, which ranked No. 6
===========
Foreclosures = RealtyTrac reports 14% dip
but new wave expected
http://www.housingwire.com/2011/12/14/realtytrac-reports-14-decline-in-foreclosures-but-expects-new-wave
-----------
Scheduled home auctions hit nine-month high
Seasonal pullback in foreclosure activity by lenders and mortgage servicers
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45684993/ns/business-real_estate/#.TupW6zXLxKI
========

Production Pullback: Industrial Production Nov = decreased 0.2% in November & Utilization decreased + The Empire State (and Philly) Manufacturing Survey: Dec = show improvement in December

[mEDITate-OR:
not feel that being cut back has gotta hurt, a lot, a Christmas...
-----------
That having been said...
please note that the Empire & Philly Manufacturing Survey for DEC shows a much better view for U.S.
Two very different views.
One might be right.
-------

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=========
Production Pullback: Industrial Production November 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/12/production-pullback-industrial.html
-----------
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey: December 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/12/empire-state-manufacturing-survey.html
--------------
Industrial Production decreased 0.2% in November
Capacity Utilization decreased
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/industrial-production-decreased-02-in.html
----------------
Empire State and Philly Fed Manufacturing Indexes
show improvement in December
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/empire-state-and-philly-fed.html
==========

Unemployment: Initial, Continued and Extended Unemployment Claims Dec 15 = decline to 366,000 = to lowest level since 2008

[mEDITate-OR:
not wonder how "falling" is good news...
----------
While the trend is down, that does not mean that there is any NEW hiring going on.
Nor, does it mean that those being hired did not quit a different, lower paying
or even a terrible job, to switch - now that they think they can.
-----
The labor participation levels tell U.S. the true story here.
---------------
Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to 366,000 last week, the lowest level since May 2008.
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=========
Extended Unemployment:
Initial, Continued and Extended Unemployment Claims December 15 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/12/extended-unemployment-initial-continued_15.html
--------------
Initial jobless claims fall to lowest level since 2008
http://money.cnn.com/2011/12/15/news/economy/unemployment_benefits/index.htm?iid=HP_Highlight
-------------
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 366,000
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims_15.html
===========

FMac+MBA Reading Rates: Dec 14 = Average 30-year loan rate ties record: 3.94 pct

[mEDITate-OR:
not know that this has nothing to do with any of U.S....
---------
Match mark set in the fall
yet few are able to take advantage to refinance
--------

-----------
alt text
--------------
alt text
---------
MORTGAGE RATES HIT LOWS
----------
30-year fixed mortgage rates chart
--------------
========
Average 30-year loan rate ties record: 3.94 pct.
Match mark set in the fall, yet few are able to take advantage to refinance
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38770102/ns/business-real_estate/#.TupQrjXLxKI
--------------
===========

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

The Excess Vacant Housing Supply

[mEDITate-OR:
not see that what you think you see is not what you do see...
and
what you think that you do not see, is, in fact, what you do see...
---------
Bill, this is all very interesting..., but...
--------
As we have attempted to point out to you before..
there are major problems that we have not seen before.
And, that you do not adjust for.
----------
First, the census only looked at "empty" homes.
That's nice. But, there are thousands of U.S. who are behind in our mortgage payments; that are not in foreclosure; and are not being forced out of our homes, yet; thousands of U.S. in robo-signed homes in Fla who may never, ever be foreclosed or evicted; and thousands of NYers who will sit where they are for up to eight (8) years before they are moved out of their homes.
While YOU might assume that those are not "vacant" homes, economically they are.
---------
Second, there are even more "underwater" home "owners" who are currently "current" on their rent/mortgage payments who have absolutely NO chance of ever paying off their homes, or selling them.
While YOU might assume that those are not "vacant" homes, economically they are.
--------
Third, there are thousands of homes being bought by "all cash investors" out of foreclosure, that are NOT rented, yet; not sold, yet; and are not, technically, vacant. Only in economic transition.
While YOU might assume that those ARE "vacant" homes, economically they are not.
------------
As you point out with regard to NARs existing sales...
what we used to use for measuring "stuff" was based on assumptions that we made when, for U.S., the RE markets looked "normal".
They are not now.
----------
Oddly, there actually is a very accurate number of "empty" homes - and the USPS has it.
They sell to bulk mailers a "delivery count" - of occupied homes.
Why they are there, how long they will still be there, USPS does not know...
But, they DO know precisely how many homes are "empty".
---------
Well..., Bill...
even THAT is not totally true.
They do not eliminate "immigrant drop houses"...
where some body cleans out the mailbox.
---------------
So, Bill, you do see, do you not...
that what you think you see, you do not...
what you think you do not see, you do not...
what is empty might not be vacant...
what is not empty might be vacant...
---------
So, go ask Alice.
----------



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SourceDatePeriodTotal Housing UnitsChangeCompletions, TotalCalculated Demolitions
Census4/1/2000115,904,473
ACS7/1/20003 Months116,300,799396,326468,30071,974
ACS7/1/20011 Year117,905,0051,604,2061,719,600115,394
ACS7/1/20021 Year119,456,2061,551,2011,771,800220,599
ACS7/1/20031 Year121,076,8371,620,6311,784,700164,069
ACS7/1/20041 Year122,824,5011,747,6641,866,000118,336
ACS7/1/20051 Year124,711,0411,886,5401,980,90094,360
ACS7/1/20061 Year126,500,2121,789,1712,068,800279,629
ACS7/1/20071 Year128,132,1641,631,9521,831,600199,648
ACS7/1/20081 Year129,313,1371,180,9731,370,200189,227
ACS7/1/20091 Year129,969,653656,516999,700343,184
Census4/1/20109 Months131,704,7301,735,077584,000-1,151,077
Decennial Census Change:15,800,25716,445,600645,343

=========
The Excess Vacant Housing Supply
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/excess-vacant-housing-supply.html
-----------
The American Community Survey and Total Housing Units
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/american-community-survey-and-total.html
==========

Economic Jolt: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Oct + BLS: Job Openings "essentially unchanged" in October

[mEDITate-OR:
miss the fact that something shifted under U.S....
-----------

JGBHimself says:

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============
Economic Jolt: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Oct
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/12/economic-jolt-job-openings-and-labor.html
---------------
BLS: Job Openings "essentially unchanged" in October
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/bls-job-openings-essentially-unchanged.html
-------------
JOLTS in October 2011 Continues to Point to Continuing Jobs Growth
http://econintersect.com/wordpress/?p=16777
========

Trade Balance Improves in October 2011

[mEDITate-OR:
miss a very different look, at the trade deficit for U.S.
-----------

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Trade Balance Improves in October 2011
http://econintersect.com/wordpress/?p=16667
=========

Sharp Decline in Withholding Tax Receipts Signals Imminent Recession

[mEDITate-OR:
not see that THIS is very much NOT "Good News"...
--------
The sharp decline in withholding tax deposits that began in early 2011
is gaining momentum as we move into 2012
and this type of material deterioration was accompanied by economic contraction when it occurred in 2001 and 2008.
----------

----------

==========
Sharp Decline in Withholding Tax Receipts Signals Imminent Recession
http://prometheusmi.com/2011/12/13/sharp-decline-in-withholding-tax-receipts-signals-imminent-recession/
=======

Home values dip in October as market reaches for the bottom + Credit Suisse expects home prices to stabilize in 2012

[mEDITate-OR:
think that like Da Phoenix, we B OK now...
----------

-----------

=============
Home values dip in October as market reaches for the bottom
http://www.housingwire.com/2011/12/13/home-values-dip-in-october-as-market-reaches-for-the-bottom
-----------
Credit Suisse expects home prices to stabilize in 2012
http://www.housingwire.com/2011/12/14/credit-suisse-expects-home-prices-to-stabilize-in-2012
========

Foreign homebuyers clicking on depressed US housing markets

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that only U.S. knows a bargain when we see one...
-------
AZ it twice as popular as Cal and Nev
But, Fla is twice a popular as AZ
------------

-----------

===========
Foreign homebuyers clicking on depressed US housing markets
http://www.housingwire.com/2011/12/14/foreign-homebuyers-clicking-on-depressed-us-housing-markets
============

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

An open letter to strategic defaulters..., like Jacbob himself

[mEDITate-OR;
totally misunderstand what you say that you do...
-----------
Good morning, Jacob.
Now we know why you do not permit the rest of U.S. to comment on your articles...
nor on you personal "political" comments.
You would prefer not to be told that you are wrong.
So, forgive one of U.S. for pointing that out to you.
-------
First, your "friends" in the mortgage & investment banking industry created US$ 2.5 Trillion in very bad ARMs and subprime RE mortgages in the sand states of Cal, Nev, fla and AZ. 
ALL of those bad RE loans are now more than 50% underwater, in or already back out of foreclosure, or through BKs.
Some 85% of those bad RE loans are now defunct in the sand states.
They no longer exist.

Second, most of those RE loans were "speculative", and there were two kinds of them.
As a new NY Fed report shows U.S. most of them were "investors", buying multiple homes speculating on the huge appreciated values. ALL of Those People have long since walked away from their bad investments. 
The other "speculators" were those with no reason to buy those home - except that with nothing down, no payments and doing nothing except making Countrywide, WAMU, Wichovia, and New Century very rich.., expected to become very rich themselves by selling a hugely appreciated home in a couple'a years.
Those People have long since lost their homes.
So, Jacob, WHO, precisely, is left out there?

Third, surrounding those bad ARMs and subprimes are people who obtained "conventional" RE loans - put down 20% in order to buy a home in order to work at Boeing or Intel in AZ. Beginning school teachers, firemen, and police officers, too.
As we said in Canada, up to being kidnapped and brought to The States, at the age of 4n1/2... they are really Pucked.
But, of course, you don't give a GD about "Those People" do you Jacob?

Fourth, all of the miscreants you condemn to financial death have already walked, Scot free
The only ones left, that appear to offend you, are those who played by the rules you say should be "inviolate".
Kerry Kissinger will really love you, Jacob.
Those People will not.
-----------
Oddly, those of U.S. who read you every day, thought you were better/smarter than that.
And, we do not like you trying to prove U.S. wrong.
You little devil, you.
======
An open letter to strategic defaulters
http://www.housingwire.com/2011/12/13/an-open-letter-to-strategic-defaulters
============