More exports to China help narrow U.S. trade deficit + Emerging markets are gaining in importance to Canada's exporters

[mEDITate-OR:
not see that both Canada & U.S. are exporting different types of goods..., to China...
but are trying to solve a similar problem.
Since Canada export more to U.S. than any other country...
we control their future.
Since China export more to U.S. than they buy from U.S.
they, and oil, control our export/import imbalance.
What both Canada and U.S. are doing, now, is exporting raw materials.
and both are trying to expand exports to new & different countries.
-------------
Exports swelled to record highs with two important U.S. trading partners.
U.S. exports to Mexico, including natural gas, fuel oil and soybeans, hit a high in October of $15.4 billion, but the deficit with Mexico was virtually unchanged at $5.8 billion.
And exports to China, primarily soybeans, reached $9.3 billion in October, the highest on record and shrinking the deficit with that Asian country to $25.5 billion in October, from $27.8 billion in September.
The value of total soybean exports has been climbing over the years, reaching $16.9 billion in 2009 from $6.6 billion in 2005
--------------

=========
Canada has long been a trading country of a special kind. Whatever's happening in the rest of the world, we typically prospered or withered along with one dominant customer, the U.S.
But not quite so much any more, it seems. In October, our exports to the U.S. shrank in importance to 72 per cent of the total -the lowest level in 18 years -even as they edged up a bit in dollar terms.
At the same time, Canada's total export performance improved much more than expected, helped along by a global appetite for our metals, including strong demand from emerging markets. China, for example, is the world's biggest user of industrial metals like copper.
Canadian exports to emerging markets have nearly doubled over the past five years
October's bounce "puts Canadian exports for the final quarter of 2010 on track for a 15 per cent annualized gain, rebounding from the third quarter's five-per cent decline,"
------------

-----------

=========
More exports to China help narrow U.S. trade deficit
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/11/business/economy/11econ.html?ref=christine_hauser
------------
Emerging markets are gaining in importance to Canada's exporters
http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/Emerging+markets+gaining+importance+Canada+exporters/3961551/story.html
============

Student Loan Scam Perverts Fed's Consumer Credit Report

[mEDITate-OR:
not know that, once again
they simply LIED to U.S.
-------   what the media told U.S.
The "good" is the claim that we went up $3.3 billion on non-revolving credit.
that little uptick does look constructive, and the non-revolving rate of change is in fact positive.
Why?
--------------   Reason No.1
Except for the idiots borrowing to go to school
the actual non-revolving debt acceptance was down at a 58% annualized rate of change!
That's not a decline -- it's a collapse.
------     Reason No. 2
While the "pumpers" all said that strong auto sales were part of the recovery
that's a lie; "finance companies" (which include GMAC, Ford Motor Credit (FCZ), etc.) declined at a nearly 6% rate for the month
which on an annualized basis is just plain nasty.
---------

Dec 08 07:44 PM

JGBHimself

But, Ka-a-a-rl, you didn't tell U.S. "the rest of the story"!

By going to school, albeit by borrowing money they don't, & won't ever, have, they are taken OFF the unemployment numbers, bcuz they are not actively seeking work.
AND, they are not collection UI benefits, which saves the state & Federal govts a ton of money they do not have.
AND, They are paying substantially increased tuition, which lowers the state tax bills for the rest of U.S. - money the states and we don't have.
Don't you LOVE shell games?

And, while the rest of U.S. are having our credit cards cancelled, and/or our CC bad debts written off, those college kiddies are being still given MORE "free" credit cards! To be used wisely, of course, for "sex n drugs n rocknroll"!!! Get it now, worry-about-it later, if ever.
MOG, you are SUCH a pessimist!

Trust the college kids, Karl; their beer glasses, and their CCs, are NEVER more than half empty!

-------------

-----------

============

-----------     Because student loans increased by $31.8 billion.

===========
Student Loan Scam Perverts Fed's Consumer Credit Report
http://seekingalpha.com/article/240714-student-loan-scam-perverts-fed-s-consumer-credit-report
=========

Zen and the Art of Case-Shiller

[mEDITate-OR:
not accept that you will have to read the article and Malkiel's comment...
to fully understand.
The issue, them and me.
Well, Merry Christmas to you, too.
---------

JGBHimself

Dec 11 12:24 AM

No, Malkiel, it does not. Not for CS, nor for ASUs repeat AZ report. And there is.
Zecco/Block'o has asked a very interesting question. If, as we know that it is often true in the sand states, the foreclosed property was trashed & the copper gutted, is it put into the same data point as a ready to re-sell home? Bcuz, if it is, the numbers are not only not comparable to that homes prior sale, they are not comparable to any home within an "appraiser distance".

While SA readers have pointed out to me, not including Detroit's problems as being as serious as a "sand state" may not be accurate. While conceding that point, it is also true that the bad ARM and subprime securitized RE loans that WERE made in Nev, Cal, Fla & AZ during the dead zone, were NOT similarly made in Detroit. What is also true is that a trashed home - in Detroit or a sand state - simply cannot be assumed for statistical reasons to be identical to one that is not.

We have asked, tried to find out, whether trashed homes are excluded from the CS and/or ASU repeat sales reports. That is still not known. They might be, but are probably not.

Another problem with CS and ASU is "timing" - when WAS that last sale? Was it before the run up, at the peak, at the putative bottom as a foreclosure? Two years ago, when we asked Yun whether NAR included foreclosures - REO sales & prices, he responded by saying that they had been previously too insignificant to be included. He was correct, before; he was dead zone wrong at the time. So, he changed the NAR report. What you probably do not know is when he did that, and how that effects your reading of the NAR monthly numbers for sales & prices.

What CS and ASU have not done, or told anyone that they have, is adjust their reports to reflect the extreme variance between pre-run-up, peak and pit, and between REO-foreclosures and normal (Ha!, is that not a laugh?) RE sales. Nor, are they taking into account the problem that R-U-Rich is raising - where is it shown to U.S. the costs of trashed home?

Even if we compare "assessed" taxable values (2 to 4 years old), with the last sales values (whenever), with the amount bid/received @ a foreclosure sales (multi-bid VS no-bid), with recorded short sales prices (what does that have to do with market VS power), with REO listings prices (are they all out there or most held back for a better price, later), with ALL current RE closed sales prices...(not pending on a hope n a prayer, but recorded), we still do NOT know if the home was trashed, or fixed up prior to sale, or will be fixed up after.

To NOT know that aboot (Canadian English) the CS or ASU repeat sales numbers, means that there is more that we do NOT know, than we do. Or, that they are telling U.S.

Now, how is THAT, for another Seeking Alpha conspiracy theory!!!
{and, no, that is not a question}

=========
Zen and the Art of Case-Shiller
http://seekingalpha.com/article/241169-zen-and-the-art-of-case-shiller?source=dashboard_macro-view#comment_update_link
=========

A very interesting jobs chart

[mEDITate-OR:
wonder who else they cropped out of the picture...
The variety of charts and graphs that are shown to U.S. depends to a large political degree on what they think they want YOU to see.
This one, even if they DO have a political agenda is VERY interesting.
Yesterday, FinFacts from Ireland and...
The Brookings Institution's Hamilton Project has examined the “job gap,” or the number of months it would take to get back to pre-recession employment levels (while absorbing the 125,000 people who enter the labour force each month).
told U.S. that for back to normal, full employment, The jobs gap was 11.8m jobs.
...if the economy adds about 208,000 jobs per month, the average monthly rate for the best year of job creation in the 2000s

then it will take 142 months, or about 12 years to close the job gap.

At a more optimistic rate of 321,000 jobs per month, the average monthly rate for the best year of the 1990s, the economy will reach pre-recession employment levels

in 60 months, or about 5 years

Now, look, again, more closely at this chart.
See precisely where we are at now.
What FinFacts is telling U.S. we need to do...
AND
how FAR off the mark we still are.
Stunning, is it not.
----------

=======

Foreigners flock to Treasuries - Households slow Treasury binge = Bond market bloodbath deepens

[mEDITate-OR:
think that the only "action" in DC is in trying to figure out

what the Tax deal is or means, and/or if it will happen...???

Not true.

There those pesky TBills, and their owners, to think about.

Who is buying, who is selling, who holds them, and how much of a yield bath are they willing to take ???

"They" are buying..., still, right now...

and WE/U.S. are not & are selling....

only China holds more than WE/U.S. do...

and who, those of U.S holding, The Buck knows.

-------------

The price of TBill sets the yield.

The yield on 10yr bonds sets our RE mortgage interest rates.

What these people...

the Chinese, Japanese, U.S'ns, and the rest of the world...

are thinking and/or doing..., matters..., to U.S.

So, as the Brits would say:

What the Bloody Hell ARE these people thinking...?

Especially the Brits.

-------------------------     Whose buy'n N sell'n - right now

------------     Whose bin buy'n

---------   Whose hold'n em

----------   The winners and the losers

-----------    They can't balance their OWN budget, and are lending to U.S.?

========
Foreigners flock to Treasuries
If foreigners have had their fill of Treasuries
they sure have a funny way of showing it.
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2010/12/09/foreigners-flock-to-treasuries/
---------
Households slow Treasury binge
U.S. households have taken a breather in their two-year-long Treasury-buying binge.
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2010/12/09/households-slow-treasury-binge/
-------------
Americans love their Treasurys
Look out, China. U.S. households are now the second-biggest owner of Treasury debt
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2010/06/21/americans-love-their-treasurys/
------------
Bond market bloodbath deepens
Is the bull market for bonds dead at the tender age of 30?
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2010/12/08/bond-market-bloodbath-deepens/
========

U.S. Trade Deficit Narrows To Lowest Level Since January

---------

-------------

-----------

------------

------------

============
U.S. Trade Deficit Narrows To Lowest Level Since January
http://www.rttnews.com/Content/TopStories.aspx?Id=1503715&SM=1
-------------
U.S. Exports Jumped to Pre-Financial Crisis Level in October
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/12/us-exports-jumped-to-pre-financial-crisis-level-in-october/67817/
-----------
US trade deficit fell in October
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/US_economy/article_1021228_printer.shtml
=============

China's trade surplus hits $22.89b in Nov + Sino-Russian trade bounces back in 2010

[mEDITate-OR:
not like to see China show U.S. the graph of their trade balance...
you know, the one WE do not show ourselves...
-------------

----------

--------------

------------



===========
China's trade surplus hits $22.89b in Nov
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2010-12/10/content_11682502.htm
-------------
Sino-Russian trade bounces back in 2010
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2010-12/10/content_11681821.htm
========

German exports fell by 1.1% in October 2010 while imports rose by 0.3% = Exports increased 19.8% in 12-month period

[mEDITate-OR:
be as confused as those Europeans are...
-----------BBC Version
German trade surplus narrowed in October
October's trade surplus narrowed to 14.3bn euros from 15.4bn euros in September.
----------UPI Version
Germany's trade surplus increases
Germany's trade surplus rose 13.9 percent in October from the same month last year, reaching $18.8 billion, 
------------

------------

--------------

=========
German exports fell by 1.1% in October 2010 while imports rose by 0.3%
Exports increased 19.8% in 12-month period
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1021207.shtml
---------
German Exports Suffer Unexpected Fall
http://www.rttnews.com/Content/AllEconomicNews.aspx?Node=B2&Id=1500787
---------------

Eurozone Trade Balance Turns To Surplus As Imports Fall

http://www.rttnews.com/Content/EuroEconomicNews.aspx?Id=1480217&SM=1
========

China's foreign trade hits historic highs in November, But some are very different than you are being told.

[mEDITate-OR:
not see that what they are telling U.S. about China is only partly true...
Please, note, China is also running a deficit..., with Japan and ASEAN countries.
AND, those deficits are growing, rapidly.
See if you can find THAT in any US newspaper!
Is China selling stuff to Walmart, and buying stuff from Japan.?
Selling "junk" to U.S., and getting quality from Japan?
What's up with that?
--------
From January to November, China's imports and exports totaled nearly 2.7 trillion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 36.3 percent
with the exports rising by 33 percent to 1.4 trillion U.S. dollars
and
imports soaring 40.3 percent to 1.25 trillion U.S. dollars
----
Trade with major partners is booming. Trade with the European Union, China's largest trading partner, reached 434 billion U.S. dollar over the first 11 months of the year, up by 33 percent year on year.
Trade with Japan, the third largest partners totaled 159 billion U.S. dollars, marking a significant growth of  32 percent.
Trade with the ASEAN soared by 40.6 percent to 263 billion U.S. dollars. 
China’s trade deficit with Japan and ASEAN widened sharply in the period.
The deficit with Japan of 49.6 billion U.S. dollars soared by 74 percent
and the deficit with the ASEAN of 14 billion U.S. dollars was 17 times that of the first 11 months of last year.
============
China's foreign trade hits historic highs in November
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90778/7227117.html
=============

The Job Openings Paradox VS the Great American sport of "musical chairs" effects

[mEDITate-OR:
put together a "Dream Team"...
cheaper, at less than half the price...
------------
Job openings in business and professional services (the blue line) have soared in recent months. In fact, they are back to 2007 levels. But hiring (the red line) is flat or even trending down.
This is pretty much the pattern across the whole economy. What is going on here?
There are three possibilities: Mismatch, offshoring, and lags.
Mismatch says that companies would like to hire, but can’t find the right people.
Offshoring says that companies have openings, but they are filling them overseas.
Lag would say that companies have openings, but it’s taking them time to pull the trigger, given the overall uncertainty.
-----------
DB10
How about a fourth choice (or you might consider this a variation on lag).
- businesses advertising for openings that don't exist.
-----------

Dec 08 08:12 PM
Michael, DB10, how about a 5th choice reason, being the 1st REAL reason: Money.

What if the over supply of potential new hires, means that they can buy a more qualified, younger, less expensive NEW employee..., to replace ones they already have?

Each month they/BLS report that there are 400,000 +V- hires AND terminations, but little or no increase in total employment. Who is getting hired, and who is getting fired?

What you may not be seeing is the Great American sport of "musical chairs" effects.

If the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, and pimps everywhere else, are "trading up", and drafting new recruits, why not the rest of U.S.?
------------

===========
The Job Openings Paradox
http://seekingalpha.com/article/240772-the-job-openings-paradox?source=email_the_macro_view
========

Ireland's Economic Crisis: A Brief Summary + commentary on Irish Govt & European banks RE loan bailout

[mEDITate-OR:
not see the parallels between what W did 4/2 U.S....
and what French & German banks are doing now to Ireland.
Similar problem, similar solution...
how similar the result?
-----------

Dec 08 07:08 PM
JGBHimself
Very good Irish summary, Dr. Bill.
However, your excellent analysis of how Ireland, and how the "banks in the core (France and Germany) have large holdings of bonds from the periphery (Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece)", relates to U.S., you left out the Qcard for U.S. - aka, China.
As you know, Europe is now a larger trading partner for China than U.S. So, when the EURO tanked, and China was justifiably afraid of loosing that export market, WE asked them to make their exports to U.S & Europe much more expensive. When the EURO strengthened, saving China's exports to them; and the dollar tanked, with the China dollar pegged to U.S., saving their exports to U.S., WE once again asked China to make their exports to both Europe and U.S. more expensive. And, you wonder why they just stared at U.S.?
"The Question" remains, IF it might have been an economic mistake for the Irish govt to "guarantee" French & German banks RE loans to them - not unlike W's nationalization of FMae&FMac in order to guarantee China's bond purchases in F&F, & to U.S. - are the Govts & banks of Germany & France making a similar mistake by loaning - aka, guaranteeing - funds to Ireland? Will that save Ireland, or BK it sooner, or later.
Or, are they simply doing what they have to do, for everyone - Northern Europe, da Pigs, China and U.S. - to try to survive?

We think that you just said Yes.
-------------

------------

--------------

===========
Ireland's Economic Crisis: A Brief Summary
http://seekingalpha.com/article/240822-ireland-s-economic-crisis-a-brief-summary?source=email_the_macro_view
===========

$130 billion tax breaks for the wealthiest 2.5 million - $56 billion for unemployment extension but nothing for 99ers and Social Security

[mEDITate-OR:
think that they are telling U.S. what WE need to know, or want to hear.

----------
But when it comes to 24 million underemployed, 4.5 million 99ers and 54 million retirees, there is only $56 billion available.  
------------
Republicans are willing to offer $130 billion in tax cuts for the wealthy, but they weren’t willing to spend $13 billion to help millions of Social Security recipients
that 54 million Social Security recipients, many on fixed incomes, are not worth 1/10 the cost of helping 2.5 million American households that earn more than $250,000 a year.
----------
So let’s put this in perspective. There are 15 million unemployed, and 9 million underemployed who want full time work. Obama and the Republicans are willing to spend $56 billion to help only 30% of the unemployed (7 million who will receive benefit extensions over the next 13 months/24 million underemployed). Yet at the same time, Obama and the Republicans are willing to spend $130 billion on tax breaks for 2.5 million of the wealthiest American households.
-------------
What happened to the lifeline for the 4.5 million 99ers and 5 million other unemployed who can’t collect benefits? They have lost their lifeline, but are being completely ignored in this $900 billion package of benefits.
-------------

==========

Using Google Maps to Find Foreclosures

[mEDITate-OR:
not see The Big Picture, or the little red ones either...

----------
Barry Ritholtz of The Big Picture blog explores the amazing functionality provided through Google Maps, which he says has been around for a while but has improved recently. It's both incredible and awful to see just how foreclosure continues to plague the U.S.
-----------
Google Maps Foreclosure Listings
1. Punch in any US address into Google Maps.
2. Your options are Earth, Satellite, Map, Traffic and . . . More. (Select "More")
3. The drop down menu gives you a check box option for "Real Estate."
4. The left column will give you several options (You may have to select "Show Options")
5. Check the box marked "Foreclosure."
---------

========
Using Google Maps to Find Foreclosures
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/12/using-google-maps-to-find-foreclosures/67773/
==========

The Extraordinary Contraction of the Commercial Paper Market

[mEDITate-OR;
not be shocked by anything anymore...

At the peak in 07 twas US$ 2,222 Billion..
today tis merely US$ 1,021 Billion.
That's a loss of US$ 1 Trillion in money.
Astounding.
------------

============
The Extraordinary Contraction of the Commercial Paper Market
http://seekingalpha.com/article/240877-the-extraordinary-contraction-of-the-commercial-paper-market?source=dashboard_macro-view
==========

Last month we went from 139,749 employed to 139,415 (both thousands) employed. Those 600,000 people didn't find jobs, they are now without incomes.

[mEDITate-OR:
think that you are not being lied to...
-----------
The headline says....
In the week ending Dec. 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 421,000, a decrease of 17,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 438,000. The 4-week moving average was 427,500, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised average of 431,500.
-----------
But...!
Last month we went from 139,749 employed to 139,415 (both thousands) employed.
Those 600,000 people didn't find jobs, they are now without incomes.
-------

---------------------

But then we stumbled across a rather frightening surge in the unadjusted claims numbers for last week. This raw measure of new filings for jobless claims soared by more than 169,000 for the week through December 4 — the biggest weekly gain by far since January 2010.

-------------

------------

===========
Jobless Claims: Don't Get Excited
http://seekingalpha.com/article/240950-jobless-claims-don-t-get-excited?source=dashboard_macro-view
------------
Jobless Claims Continue to Trend Lower, But With a New Caveat
http://seekingalpha.com/article/240942-jobless-claims-continue-to-trend-lower-but-with-a-new-caveat?source=dashboard_macro-view
===========

Mortgage rates reach 6-month peak = 30-Year Fixed At 4.61% - Freddie

[mEDITate-OR:
think that the good times in mortgages would go on forever..
-----------
Posted By JGBell, Mesa, Az: December 10, 2010 7:53 pm
Nin-Hai, you are missing some things important.
First, just as the decrease in the interest rates made homes more affordable, bcuz the payments required each month dropped, a lot. Increasing mortgage rates will drive huge numbers of currently eligible buyers OUT of the market. The pool of buyers shrinks, a lot. Especially first time & entry level buyers.
Second, while the collateral damage will be that home prices drop, that will NOT impact buyers as much as their monthly interest payments going up. Look at both of those numbers, you will see interest trumps price every time.
Third, the increase will NOT change the "eligibility" requirements, which are extremely narrow now. Nor will it create condo and/or jumbo financing that does not exist, currently.
Those new buyers, that you think will panic an buy before the interest rates go even farther up, will be like underwater debtors applying for "Modifications" - you can't get there from here.
-----------

---

-----------

---------

------------

-----------

===========
Will rising mortgage rates spur home sales?
Historically low mortgage rates didn't encourage new home sales, but rising rates could finally push home-buying fence-sitters into the market.
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2010/12/10/will-rising-mortgage-rates-spur-home-sales/
===========

SPECIAL REPORT: U.S. Homes Lost $1.7 Trillion in Value in 2010, Total Value Destruction Since Market Peak Now $9 Trillion, Cost of 12 Iraq Wars

[mEDITate-OR:
think that 9 Trillion a only a few Billion here and there...

But, note that while Phoenix, and the other sand state dropped off early...
Seattle and Portland are fast catching up, now dropping faster.
-----------

------------
This brings the total loss since the market peaked in June 2006 to $9 trillion.
To put this in perspective, $9 trillion is:
12 times the cost of the war in Iraq
900 times the value of the most expensive home in the world
a little over 9 times the GDP of Australia.
-----

-------------------

===========
SPECIAL REPORT: U.S. Homes Lost $1.7 Trillion in Value in 2010
Total Value Destruction Since Market Peak Now $9 Trillion, Cost of 12 Iraq Wars
http://www.realestatechannel.com/us-markets/residential-real-estate-1/real-estate-news-home-value-declines-home-value-destruction-zillow-report-lost-home-equity-values-home-foreclosures-bulk-condo-sales-worst-real-estate-markets-3601.php
-------------
Home Values Lose $1.7 Trillion in 2010, Prices Still Falling
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/12/home-values-lose-17-trillion-in-2010-prices-still-falling/67783/
------------
Zillow: U.S. home values down $1.7T for year, Phoenix $36B
http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2010/12/09/Zillow-us-home-values.html
-------------
Seattle homes are worth $25 billion less this year
http://blog.seattlepi.com/realestatenews/archives/231223.asp
==========

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Drop = 17,000 to 421,000 = Four-week average lowest level since Aug 08

------------

------------

------------
States with largest drops in claims:
Texas: Down 8,742, due to fewer layoffs in service and manufacturing
California: Down 8,320, due to fewer layoffs in services
Florida: Down 7,027 due to fewer layoffs in construction, trade, services and agriculture
Georgia: Down 5,823, due to fewer layoffs in construction, trade, services and manufacturing
North Carolina: Down 4,171, fewer layoffs in services, furniture, and fabricated metals
States with largest increases in claims:
Wisconsin: Up 7,545, due to layoffs in manufacturing
Iowa: Up 2,789, due to layoffs in construction and manufacturing
Idaho: Up 1,810, no reason given
Indiana: Up 1,667, due to layoffs in the auto and manufacturing industries
Washington: Up 1,260, no reason given
===========
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Show Bigger Than Expected Drop
http://www.rttnews.com/Content/AllEconomicNews.aspx?Id=1502487&SM=1
========