Q3 Advance Report: Real Annualized GDP Grew at 2.0%

[mEDITate-OR:
miss the fact that we missed this one...
but now you didn't, either.

Unique to CR is this chart, which shows U.S. what normal might/should be...
and where we in fact are.

Note: that while we started to recover
we are now falling once again.

Now, read the next blog post.
----------
This graph shows the quarterly GDP growth (at an annual rate) for the last 30 years.
The dashed line is the median growth rate of 3.05%. 
The current recovery is very weak - the 2nd half slowdown continues.
---------

===========
Q3 Advance Report: Real Annualized GDP Grew at 2.0%
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/q3-advance-report-real-annualized-gdp.html
===========

Another disappointing GDP report = Real GDP: Still 0.8% below pre-recession levels

[mEDITate-OR:
not see that both Econbrowser & Calculated Risk...
have it backwards, and upside down...

What the first 2 graphs show U.S. is the same thing - we are NOT back to normal.
But, the devil is in the details - the next three charts.

The 3rd chart shows U.S. that over the last year - 4 Qs
consumption has gone up every Q
exports have gone down every Q
and imports have as well
construction - residential & non fixed investment - started up, but is now falling, again
inventories also started up, but are now falling again.
and
government transfer payments - UI, SS, Medicare/aid - went up every Q
conclusion = GDP going down.

The 4th graph is for real personal income less transfer payments

Real personal income less transfer payments is still 5.5% below the pre-recession peak. Much of the growth in PCE over the last year has come from transfer payments - this includes people taking Social Security early, extended unemployment benefits, and other assistance programs

The 5th graph is  employment.

Payroll employment is still 5.6% below the pre-recession peak.

And with below trend GDP growth, payroll employment growth will likely remain sluggish
---------
What the mainstream media and biz reporters tell you about are the "gross" numbers...
(no pun intended)
and speculate, like the stock market, about why.
What Econbrowser and CR show U.S. is what really is going on down under there.
-------

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=====    Now, for something very different

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The 4th graph is for real personal income less transfer payments (also released today for Q3 as part of the GDP report).
Real personal income less transfer payments is still 5.5% below the pre-recession peak. Much of the growth in PCE over the last year has come from transfer payments - this includes people taking Social Security early, extended unemployment benefits, and other assistance programs - and it will be some time before this indicator returns to pre-recession levels.

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The final graph is for employment. This is similar to the graph I post every month comparing percent payroll jobs lost in several recessions.
Payroll employment is still 5.6% below the pre-recession peak. And with below trend GDP growth, payroll employment growth will likely remain sluggish

==========
Real GDP: Still 0.8% below pre-recession levels
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/real-gdp-still-08-below-pre-recession.html
-----------
Another disappointing GDP report
http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2010/10/another_disappo.html
==========

"the government doesn't seem to represent the people anymore." = Special Report: A Marshall Plan for America's housing woes

[mEDITate-OR:

not read, and understand, that Bob might be right...

-----------

said Robert Shiller, Yale University economics professor and co-creator of the S&P Case Shiller Index, which monitors the nation's housing market.

"This high unemployment equilibrium could last for years,"

"If you are going to deal with this in the short run, you are going to have to violate contracts,"

"What is more worrisome than the recession itself is that the government doesn't seem to represent the people anymore." 

-----------

C/sh/Whould it be possible...

that neither party truly represents their own constituency, or the rest of U.S.

    

Well..., as RonnieR used to say to U.S.:     Do we have a treat, designed just for you.

(and, no, that was not a question)

There was a line:   "If its not broke, don't fix it."

Is the opposite true?

Disirregardless, this is a must read for U.S.

=============
Special Report: A Marshall Plan for America's housing woes
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20101029/bs_nm/us_usa_housing_solutions
==============

Rise in college costs hits public schools hardest

[mEDITate-OR:

not remember that they did not increase your taxes...

What will be left...
after they payoff their debts, and your SS benefits...
well, who cares.

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--------

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College degrees that don't pay
PayScale.com collected salary data for more than a hundred college degrees. These workers majored in some of the lowest paying fields. But they still love what they do.
http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2010/pf/1008/gallery.low_paying_college_degrees/index.html
 ===========
Rise in college costs hits public schools hardest
http://money.cnn.com/2010/10/28/pf/college/college_tuition/index.htm
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Arizona university tuition now tops U.S. average
http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/2010/10/28/20101028arizona-universities-tuition-above-national-average.html
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College tuition increases but so does financial aid
Q&A: Reports' author explains new findings on college costs
http://www.tucsonsentinel.com/nationworld/report/102810_qa_college_tuition
===========

Case-Shiller HPI for Phoenix, LA, SanD and Las Vegas

[mEDITate-OR:
not remember that for most of the 90's
while Phoenix and Las Vegas were going up
LA and Diego were in a recession.

But, in the last decade all four markets exploded..., up
Since LA and Diego started lower, they exploded up higher.
and with the collapse they fell less far.

While Phoenix did have a slight up tick, it is now falling.
Las Vegas is still dropping like a rock.
-----------

================
==========

New jobless claims 10-28 = Unexpectedly Drop To Three-Month Low

[mEDITate-OR:
not understand why Obama said:
"NOW, they tell me."
"When it's too little, too late."

The problem is, of course, that not only are job claims flat...
but so hirings.
The economy is simply not creating enough jobs to absorb the people who have lost their jobs and those newly entering the labor force from high school and college.

They and we are going nowhere.
----------

----------

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=========
Jobless Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Drop To Three-Month Low
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-28/unemployment-claims-in-u-s-unexpectedly-decline-to-a-three-month-low.html
-----------
Jobless claims slide to 3-month low
http://money.cnn.com/2010/10/28/news/economy/initial_claims/
=========

Mortgage Rate for 30-Year U.S. Loans Rises to 4.23% + Near Record Low

[mEDITate-OR:
not understand why, if rates are slightly higher...
mortg apps, both refi & purchase, are also higher.

Unless, you, too, are trying to catch these rates while they last.
-------------

--------------

---------

============
Mortgage Rate for 30-Year U.S. Loans Rises to 4.23%
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-28/mortgage-rate-for-30-year-u-s-loans-rises-to-4-23-update1-.html
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Mortgage Rates Rise To 4.23 Pct., Near Record Low
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=130884484
=========

MBA: Mortgage Purchase Activity increases slightly + New Home Sales increased slightly, still near record low + Home Sales: Distressing Gap

[mEDITate-OR:
be distressed, and not even know why....

The 1st chart is unique to CR, and shows U.S. dramatically the huge gap between new and existing homes. As Jim @ CR points out to U.S. this gap also is costing U.S. jobs

The 2nd chart is also unique to CR, and shows U.S. dramatically how much new home sales have tanked. When you go to the CR site for the LARGE charts and see the others, you will see that builders have slashed their inventories and the months supply to try to stay alive. No more spec homes. No buyer, no build.

The 3rd chart is CR's take on mortgage apps. However, you should look at the Sold charts below to see how different REFIs are from new purchase apps. While sales apps have been mostly impacted by the buyers tax credits, REFIs have been affected most by the rates they can get.
------------

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---------

==========
MBA: Mortgage Purchase Activity increases slightly
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/mba-mortgage-purchase-activity_27.html
----------
New Home Sales increased slightly in September, still near record low
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/new-home-sales-increased-slightly-in.html
-----------
Home Sales: Distressing Gap Sept
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/home-sales-distressing-gap-sept-2010.html
=========

Housing Bust impacting Manager Mobility

[mEDITate-OR:
in the Army for U.S. they say tis either UP or OUT.
For the rest of U.S. tis "We have fallen and we mcCain't get up OR out."
Most of this recession, Jim @ CR has express his concerns, which we share, that the impact on economic and social mobility, which is one of our greatest assets, has been severely compromised. He was and is correct. For the first 3 Qtrs of 09 it looked like we would dig ourselves out of this.
For the last year we have been in a jobless recessionary "L" shaped non-recovery.
No jobs, not home sales OR price recovery, AND no mobility.
Sad, very sad.
-------------

==========
Housing Bust impacting Manager Mobility
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/housing-bust-impacting-manager-mobility.html
========

House Prices have corrected to what year?

[mEDITate-OR:
not be stunned by these two RE charts...
CR is simply priceless.
If they cannot prepare their own unique charts to show U.S. what we need to know, they oft find someone else's chart that does it for both CR and U.S.
While we thought that this was true, it is very interesting to SEE how true it is.
First, note that the 2nd chart shows U.S. only the Case-Shiller years impacts.
While the 1st chart shows U.S. both the year and the price.
And, both show U.S. that the higher you flew, the farther you fell..., back.
-------

-----------

============
House Prices have corrected to what year?
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/house-prices-have-corrected-to-what.html
===========

Weekly Mortgage Survey Shows Slight Drop in 30-Year Rates Rise in Application and Refinance Volumes

[mEDITate-OR:
not see the shifts in RE borrowing...

What Sold at the Top's three charts show U.S. is that as mortgage rates were forced down in mid 09 the REFI numbers tracked - as rates went down, REFI apps went up.

What we see with Purchase Apps is quite different. Obviously the Fed buyer's tax credit programs show a huge impact on both new and existing home sales and mortgage apps.
---------

-----------

----------------

==========
Weekly Mortgage Survey Shows Slight Drop in 30-Year Rates Rise in Application and Refinance Volumes
http://seekingalpha.com/article/233136-weekly-mortgage-survey-shows-slight-drop-in-30-year-rates-rise-in-application-and-refinance-volumes?source=dashboard_macro-view
============

Google 2.4% Rate Shows How $60 Billion Lost to Tax Loopholes + Google saved $3.1bn in taxes in past 3 years using 'Double Irish ' scheme = Google has paid no tax in UK since 2007 - - one of its biggest overseas markets

[mEDITate-OR:
not even know that you, too, have been robbed...
Now, this c/should get interesting.
--------
Ireland has to slash its budget.
England has to slash its budgets.
Even U.S. has to slash (y)our budget.
---------
But, one of the largest, subsidized companies pays almost NO taxes..., in Ireland, England and/or to U.S.
-------------

===========
Google saved $3.1bn in taxes in past 3 years using 'Double Irish ' scheme = Google has paid no tax in UK since 2007 - - one of its biggest overseas markets
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1020847.shtml
------------
Google 2.4% Rate Shows How $60 Billion Lost to Tax Loopholes
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-21/google-2-4-rate-shows-how-60-billion-u-s-revenue-lost-to-tax-loopholes.html
===========

Which Party Will You Vote For? Flowchart Predicts Your Midterm Vote

[mEDITate-OR:
not thirst for something totally different...
----------

==========
Which Party Will You Vote For? Flowchart Predicts Your Midterm Vote
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/10/21/which-party-will-you-vote_n_771989.html
==========

CoreLogic home price index drops for first time in 2010

[mEDITate-OR:
not see the mixed RE markets...

The West is being dumped on:
Idaho worst in the U.S.
Or, Wa, Ut and AZ are very bad.
Nev is less bad

Much like AZ, Fla is still in real trouble.
So is most of the Midwest.

One must ask, what's not wrong with Californication?
And, why?
----------

----------
From FinFacts in Ireland:

=========
CoreLogic home price index drops for first time in 2010
http://www.housingwire.com/2010/10/25/corelogic-home-price-index-drops-for-first-time-in-2010
=========

Double whammy hits big local real-estate portfolio + Westlake Center, Amazon.com Tower among other troubled properties + Office vacancies flat in Seattle and Eastside

[mEDITate-OR:

believe those who are telling U.S. that commercial RE is not in serious trouble...

Delay and deny.

These three Seattle Times Articles are stunning.

In there empty promises and/or premises.

All of that investment money, almost all of it borrowed, now gone.

Into each life a little rain must fall....

In Seattle, even that is a wee skoshi bit higher.

----------------

=========

Double whammy hits big local real-estate portfolio
A Goldman Sachs affiliate paid $930 million for 11 Seattle and Eastside office properties in 2007 but now — as a balloon payment looms ever larger — it's reeling from plunging real-estate values and emptied cubicles.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2013214897_archon24.html
----------

Westlake Center, Amazon.com Tower among other troubled properties
Several other prominent Seattle office towers also have big loans coming due that are at risk of default, according to analysts
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2013214843_archonside24.html
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Office vacancies flat in Seattle and Eastside
Vacancy rates and rents for office space changed little during the last quarter, but that in itself is a change from the soaring vacancies and free-falling lease rates of a year ago.


http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2013091869_office07.html
=========

Out of Work, Out of Options and Over the Hill

[mEDITate-OR;
Think that the Okies in the Depression had it good...
---------
This is the tragedy that keeps on giving to all of U.S.

Those 10 yrs older are opting for early SS, having no other options left. These people have NO options at all. Absolutely tragic.

In a UW hospital study a few years ago, they discovered, and proved, that people who have one significant life changing event - divorce, DUI, BK, job loss, parent V child Y partner loss - were far more likely to get seriously sick. Those who had two, more than doubled their likelihood of of getting ill. More than three and the stats went off the charts. And, if you DO have one, you probably WILL have more.

These people have been or will be destroyed. One or two generations totally lost. Terrible, and getting worse.
---------
From the WSJ
(and if THEY think this is bad, tis bad)
With no job prospects long before they can afford to retire -- and Social Security benefits still years away -- many unemployed workers in their 50s and early 60s are struggling to pay the bills, the mortgage, health-care expenses and college tuition. It's a scenario that was unimaginable to many just a few years ago.
Of the 14.9 million unemployed, more than 2.2 million are 55 or older, according to the U.S. Labor Department. And almost half of those have been unemployed six months or longer.
The unemployment rate in that age group is a record high 7.3%.
==========
Out of Work, Out of Options and Over the Hill
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303436904575570663472679240.html?mod=WSJ_hp_mostpop_read
======

NAR: Sept Existing Home Sales Jumped 10%, Largest Jump in 28 Years

[mEDITate-OR:

not see that what "They" think they see is smoke and mirrors...

IF there really were that many increased sales, two things WILL happen:

FIRST, the banks will add more REO inventory to the mix.

AND

SECOND, the people who tried to sell during the 2 tax credit programs, but could not; WILL be back into the market to try again.

----------

But, note, the prices for homes are DOWN in all areas according to NAR. And, falling, again, this month.

And, note, the inventory is still 10 months.

But, note, the inventory of "foreclosed priced" home is way less.

While the inventory for high priced homes is way more.

In some areas the supply of higher priced home is YEARS...

not months.

-------

IS this a good time to buy?

IF you have a job and want to move up, and cherry pick - yes.

IF you need to move to take a new job, and cherry pick - yes.

For all the rest of U.S., no.

============
relevant numbers:
----------
The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $171,700 in September, which is 2.4 percent below a year ago.
Distressed homes accounted for 35 percent of sales in September compared with 34 percent in August; they were 29 percent in September 2009.
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The median existing single-family home price was $172,600 in September, down 1.9 percent from a year ago.
The median existing condo price was $165,400 in September, down 6.2 percent from September 2009.
The median price in the Northeast was $239,200, which is 1.4 percent below a year ago.
The median price in the Midwest was $139,700, down 5.2 percent from September 2009.
The median price in the South was $149,500, down 2.6 percent from a year ago
The median price in the West was $213,600, which is 4.9 percent lower than September 2009
--------
first-time buyers purchased 32 percent of homes in September, almost unchanged from 31 percent in August.
Investors were at an 18 percent market share in September, down from 21 percent in August
the balance of purchases were by repeat buyers.
All-cash sales were at 29 percent in September compared with 28 percent in August
------------
Total housing inventory at the end of September fell 1.9 percent to 4.04 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 10.7-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 12.0-month supply in August.
Raw unsold inventory is 11.7 percent below the record of 4.58 million in July 2008.
-----------

----------

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============
NAR: Sept Existing Home Sales Jumped 10%, Largest Jump in 28 Years
http://www.realestatechannel.com/us-markets/residential-real-estate-1/real-estate-news-housing-market-double-dip-home-buyer-tax-credit-expiration-national-association-of-realtors-nar-existing-home-sales-september-home-sales-3378.php
===========

Case-Shiller: Home Price declines widespread in August + Real House Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio + CoreLogic: House Prices Declined 1.2% in August

[mEDITate-OR:
not fully appreciate how significant the CR charts are...
showing and telling U.S. what has and what will happen to U.S.
As "They" say:
"It doesn't GET any better than this."
------
There is a new, unique chart once again from CR - the 4th one below.
What CR has done for U.S. is overlay the CoreLogic chart on the Case-Shiller.
What that shows U.S. is that they track very well.
Ah, so, economic/statistical reliability.
------
The 4th chart, unique to CR, shows U.S. the comparison between the last four years price declines.
What it will also do is show U.S. the next and 5th years as compared to where we are now.
---------
Relevant comments:
-----------
Prices are now falling - and falling just about everywhere.
And it appears there are more price declines coming
(based on inventory levels and anecdotal reports).
-----------
This isn't like in 2005 when prices were way out of the normal range by these measures, but it does appear prices are still a little too high. And with high levels of inventory, prices will probably fall some more.
-------------
CoreLogic ... today released its Home Price Index (HPI) which shows that home prices in the U.S. declined for the first time this year.
According to the CoreLogic HPI, national home prices, including distressed sales, declined 1.5 percent in August 2010 compared to August 2009 and increased by 0.6 percent in July 2010 compared to July 2009.
Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices declined 0.4 percent in August 2010.
“Price declines are geographically expanding as 78 out of the largest 100 metropolitan areas are experiencing declines, up from 58 just one month ago”
==========
REMEMBER: to go to CR for the LARGE charts
===========
The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 29.2% from the peak, and down 0.2% in August(SA).
The Composite 20 index is off 28.8% from the peak, and down 0.3% in August (SA).
--------------
The 2nd graph shows the Year over year change in both indices.

The Composite 10 is up 2.5% compared to August 2009.
The Composite 20 is up 1.7% compared to August 2009.
The year-over-year increases are slowing and will probably be negative later this year.
-------------
The 3rd graph shows the price declines from the peak for each city included in S&P/Case-Shiller indices.

Prices increased (SA) in only 1 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in August seasonally adjusted.
Only New York saw a price increase (SA) in August, and that was very small.
--------------
first here is a 4th graph of the two Case-Shiller composite indexes, and the CoreLogic HPI (NSA).

All three indexes are above the lows of early 2009, but it appears that prices are now falling - and I expect all three indexes to show new lows later this year or in early 2011.
-------------
This 5th graph shows the price to rent ratio (January 1998 = 1.0). 

Recent reports suggest rents might have bottomed, but this suggests that house prices are still a little too high on a national basis.
-------------
The 6th graph shows the CoreLogic house price index and the Case-Shiller Composite 20 index through August 2010 in real terms (adjusted with CPI less Shelter).

These indexes are still above the 2009 lows in real terms, but it is getting close, and I expect new real price lows sometime in the next few months.
------------
This 7th graph shows the national CoreLogic HPI data since 1976. January 2000 = 100.

The index is down 1.5% over the last year, and off 28.2% from the peak.
===========
Case-Shiller: Home Price declines widespread in August
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/case-shiller-home-prices-declines.html
------------
Real House Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/real-house-prices-price-to-rent-ratio.html
-------------
CoreLogic: House Prices Declined 1.2% in August
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/corelogic-house-prices-declined-12-in.html
==========

September Existing Home Sales: 4.53 million SAAR, 10.7 months of supply = Existing Home Inventory increases 8.9% Year-over-Year + WSJ: Housing Inventories up in 19 of 28 Markets Year-over-Year

[mEDITate-OR:
not see that when inventories rise as much or more than sales rise...
we are NOT making the progress that they think they see.


Most interesting is the last CR chart, which show U.S. that for the 1st half of this year, this years sales were better than last year.
But, that the sales in the 3rd quarter, the last three months, sales have been BELOW all three prior years.
That is terrible news.
---------------
Once again, deja vu, from CR's unique and accurate charts.
As important though are Jim's comments
---------
This survey from the WSJ shows that the inventory increases are fairly widespread. And that suggests that price declines will probably be widespread too. This morning CoreLogic noted that house prices declined in 78 out of the largest 100 metropolitan areas in their August report.
---------
REMEMBER: go to CR for the large charts.
---------
This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

Sales in September 2010 (4.53 million SAAR) were 10% higher than last month, and were 19.1% lower than September 2009 (5.6 million SAAR)
---------------
The 2nd graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory decreased slightly to 4.04 million in September from August from 4.12 million in August. The all time record high was 4.58 million homes for sale in July 2008.
----------
The 3rd graph shows the 'months of supply' metric.

Months of supply decreased to 10.7 months in September from 12.0 months in August.
This is extremely high and suggests prices will continue to decline.
----------
The 4th graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Inventory is not seasonally adjusted, so it really helps to look at the YoY change.

Although inventory decreased slightly from August 2010 to September 2010, inventory increased 8.9% YoY in September. This is the largest YoY increase in inventory since early 2008.
------------
the 5th graph shows existing home sales Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

The red columns are for 2010. Sales for the last three months are significantly below the previous years, and sales will probably be well weak for the remainder of 2010.
==========
September Existing Home Sales: 4.53 million SAAR, 10.7 months of supply
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/september-existing-home-sales-453.html
---------------
Existing Home Inventory increases 8.9% Year-over-Year
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/existing-home-inventory-increases-89.html
-------------
WSJ Survey: Housing Inventories up in 19 of 28 Markets Year-over-Year
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/wsj-survey-housing-inventories-up-in-19.html
===========