Mortgage rates rise to 4.5 percent - going up as the economic outlook brightens + Third Week in a Row

[mEDITate-OR:
not even know there IS a question.

With the FED telling U.S. that they will buy more TBills in order to keep mortgage interest rates down, why, then are mortgage interest rates going UP???

And, with rates going up, why are pending sales going up?

Please, note, that IF the pending sales are with a "locked" mortgage interest rate, we s/w/should interpret that as a wise move by buyers to move quickly before rates skyrocket.

However, IF the sales do NOT have any "locked" mortgage rate, there is a problem.

Can the borrower obtain a RE loan that they can still afford? Or, will they be "priced out of the market" and the RE deal flip?

Ah, this could get very interesting.
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Mortgage rates rise to 4.5 percent - going up as the economic outlook brightens
http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Latest-News-Wires/2010/1202/Mortgage-rates-rise-to-4.5-percent
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U.S. Mortgage Rates Rise Again, Third Week in a Row
http://www.realestatechannel.com/us-markets/residential-real-estate-1/real-estate-primary-mortgage-market-survey-rising-mortgage-rates-pmms-current-mortgage-rates-best-mortgage-rates-30-year-fixed-rate-mortgages-3575.php
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U.S. Pending Home Sales Rebound 10.4% in October = Home sales up 10 percent from last month - but down 20 percent from this time last yea

[mEDITate-OR:
be as perverse as you want to be...
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Said they:
"Mortgage Rates Jump 10%" in 3 Weeks"
AND
"U.S. Pending Home Sales Rebound 10.4% in October"
Said we:
So, please, explain to all the rest of U.S. how the buyers tax credit moved forward ALL of the rest of this years home sales?
And, why these home buyers appear to be doing something everyone told U.S. they c/w/should not do?

"The People" truly are perverse.

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U.S. Pending Home Sales Rebound 10.4% in October
http://www.realestatechannel.com/us-markets/residential-real-estate-1/real-estate-phsi-national-association-of-realtors-nar-pending-home-sales-index-signed-sales-contracts-fannie-mae-freddie-mac-homes-for-sale-foreclosure-inventory-3573.php
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Home sales up 10 percent from last month - but down 20 percent from this time last year
http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Paper-Economy/2010/1202/Home-sales-up-10-percent-from-last-month
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Is the Housing Market on the Verge of a Rebound?
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/12/is-the-housing-market-on-the-verge-of-a-rebound/67329/
==========

Mortgage applications fell 16.5% during holiday week + Private mortgage insurance application volume decreased in October

[mEDITate-OR:
not see the spread - between the rise in interest rates
and
the rise in pending home sales
AND
what everyone told us would happen.

Go figure.

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Mortgage applications fell 16.5% during holiday week

http://www.housingwire.com/2010/12/01/mortgage-applications-fell-16-5-during-holiday-week

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Private mortgage insurance application volume decreased in October

http://www.housingwire.com/2010/11/30/private-mortgage-insurance-application-volume-decreased-in-october

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Mortgage Refinance Activity Continues to Drop as Rates Rise

http://www.realestatechannel.com/us-markets/residential-real-estate-1/real-estate-mortgage-bankers-association-weekly-mortgage-applications-survey-mortgage-apps-refinance-rates-refinance-index-3568.php
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U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Rise By More Than Expected = 26000 to 436000 + Jobless claims near 9 million including 5 million on 'extended' benefit

[mEDITate-OR:
not see how differently we are shown "The Numbers"

The 1st chart is the monthly RTT graph that emphasizes the lack of change this year.
The 2nd, 3rd & 6th charts show U.S. how much we have come down, since W
but they do not emphasize how much we went up in W's last two years.

The 5th chart is from Jim@CR and shows U.S. how far we DID go up, AND how much father down we need to go, before we will reduce the true level of un-and-under-employed.

The 4th chart is a new entry from the Christian Science Monitor, who have started to provide U.S. with "Sold at the Top's" wonderful economic charts. Sold is one of very few that fully use color.
What Sold shows U.S. is not only the total UI, but each of the component UI claim programs, which also show U.S. how many have been long-term unemployed.

Enjoy.
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Jobless claims near 9 million including 5 million on 'extended' benefit

http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Paper-Economy/2010/1202/Jobless-claims-near-9-million-including-5-million-on-extended-benefits

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U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Rise By More Than Expected
http://www.rttnews.com/Content/TopStories.aspx?Id=1496195&SM=1
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Initial unemployment claims tick back up
http://money.cnn.com/2010/12/02/news/economy/initial_claims/
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Mass layoff events and initial claims by industry, October 2010

[mEDITate-OR:
think that job losses are now only a few people being let go at a few places....

The problem is still bigger than that.
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Mass layoff events and initial claims by industry, October 2010
http://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2010/ted_20101202.htm
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Stimulus Map By Catherine Rampell

[mEDITate-OR:
miss out on...
A visually stunning map of U.S.
http://www.recovery.gov/Transparency/MapGallery/Pages/LightsOn.aspx
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Stimulus Map, By Catherine Rampell
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/02/stimulus-map/
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Should Tax Rates Be More Gradual?

[mEDITate-OR:
miss what is missing from your tax burden...

Is simpler better?
Or, would "incentive" to move up be squelched?
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Should Tax Rates Be More Gradual?
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/02/should-tax-rates-be-more-gradual/#more-91059
=======

CEA Assessment of the the Impact of Letting UI Extensions Expire = Will Today’s Unemployed Become Tomorrow’s Unemployable?

[mEDITate-OR:
not SEE the "multiplier effect" creating a lot more misery.

By NOT continuing extended UI benefits
not only will the recipients loose their income
but 600,000 more of U.S. will also loose their jobs.

That really IS "cruel and unusual punishment" !!
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CEA estimates that in December 2011, without a year-long extension:
Employment would be 593,000 lower than if there were an extension; and
GDP would be 0.6 percent lower than if there were an extension.
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MOG, Ms C, that is too GD depressing.
Match that with the fact that many of the long-term unemployed are between 55 and 65, where those over 62 are being driven into filing early for SS, and those under 62 are being driven out of their homes. An entire generation of U.S., who played by the rules, has been economically destroyed.
What a GD mess.
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CEA Assessment of the the Impact of Letting UI Extensions Expire
http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2010/12/cea_assessment_1.html
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CEA's report "The Economic Impact of Recent Temporary Unemployment Insurance Extensions" released earlier today.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/20101202-cea-economic-impact-temp-ui-extensions.pdf
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Will Today’s Unemployed Become Tomorrow’s Unemployable?
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/02/will-todays-unemployed-become-tomorrows-unemployable/#preview
============

BCA, UI and EGTRRA/JGTRRA Four Acronyms in a Very Depressing Play + The Bush tax plan vs the Obama tax plan in one chart

[mEDITate-OR:
do what you know you should not do...
and/or
politics over economics.

These charts justify your reading Econbrowser's post.
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Jobs and Benefit-Cost Calculations (BCA)

------------Impact on GDP

------------Impact on the Budget

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BCA, UI and EGTRRA/JGTRRA
Four Acronyms in a Very Depressing Play
http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2010/12/bca_ui_and_egtr.html
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The Bush tax plan vs. the Obama tax plan in one chart
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/08/the_bush_tax_plan_vs_the_obama.html
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An Insane 12 Hours In Euroland

[mEDITate-OR:
misspeak or be misinterpreted...
and then watch all Hell break loose...
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If you wanted more evidence that the excitement in the markets doesn't happen during market hours, you only need look at a chart of the euro between midnight and noon today, when it swung wildly on speculation, auction details, and interpretation of Jean-Claude Trichet
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An Insane 12 Hours In Euroland
http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-euro-december-2-2010-12
========

DEFAULT RATE FOR COMMERCIAL MORTGAGES HELD BY DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS

[mEDITate-OR:
get impatient and fill in your own comment...
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DEFAULT RATE FOR COMMERCIAL MORTGAGES
HELD BY DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS
http://retailtrafficmag.com/charts/depository_default_11302010/
=======

Americans (Finally) Learning Lesson on Debt

[mEDITate-OR:
find yourself another day older and deeper in debt..
----------------
Nov 30 08:51 PM

What we find most interesting about these types of articles is that they do NOT cover all debts. One must ask: "Why not?"

The size of "educational loan debt" is now larger than credit card debt - but you don't even mention that one.

One does not know which is larger, the unfunded local pension debt, the unfunded state pension debt, the unfunded Federal military and/or civilian debt, OR the unfunded business/private pension debt.

Business/corporate debts are at all time highs in size & percentage of income. You talk about personal mortgage debts, but you do not talk about even more highly leveraged commercial mortgage debts.

You totally ignore medical care debts - Cost not covered by any insurance, by Medicare/Medicaid, or for long term nursing home care. The SS drug bill was not paid for - then or now. The care cost for our gulf & Afghan veterans has not been budgeted or paid for - then or now.

The SS unfunded costs are in the Trillions, the Medicare/Medicaid unfunded costs are in the Trillions, the yet to be written off bad RE, credit card and commercial/construction bank loans are in the Trillions.

And you say we are learning The Lesson.
As Seth N Amy asked U.S. weekly on SNL: "Oh, really?"

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Americans (Finally) Learning Lesson on Debt
http://seekingalpha.com/article/239330-americans-finally-learning-lesson-on-debt
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Case-Shiller Data Confirms Opinion That Second Dip in Home Prices Is Underway

[mEDITate-OR:
neither see or appreciate Steve Hanson's point of view....

The 1st chart is the usual CS report with the 10 & 20 city plus the national data.
The 2nd chart compares the CS report with the NAR report
The 3rd chart shows U.S. the impacts of "foreclosure" - with & without.

My problem with Steve's argument is that his charts may not show what he is seeing.
First, the NAR vs CS chart does not show that, it is more like the new jobless claims chart - while things did collapse, they now appear to be either improving very slowly, or we are on a plateau.
Second, the least expensive home appear, in most markets, to have bottomed out. While they are not going up, they are not going down further. What we DO see, however, is that jumbo sized and above RE properties are now, finally, in free fall. There still is little to no financing, also condos, and few if any buyers.
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Shiller Data Confirms Opinion That Second Dip in Home Prices Is Underway
http://seekingalpha.com/article/239338-case-shiller-data-confirms-opinion-that-second-dip-in-home-prices-is-underway?source=dashboard_macro-view
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Latest S&P / Case-Shiller Shows Housing Prices Continue to Tumble

[mEDITate-OR:
not see how really good the "Sold at the Top" graphs N charts are....

Please, note: if you go to the article, you can click on the LARGE charts; and you can read Sold's comments, which are also very good.

The 1st chart shows U.S. the "national" view of the RE losses.
The 2nd, 3rd, and 4th charts show U.S. the "city" views of:
2 - the peak to trough losses
3 -the year2 year losses
4 -the month2 month losses
The next 4 charts compare the 90's RE collapse to the current one.
5 - year-over-year
6 - peak to trough
7 - peak change by month into collapse
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Latest S&P / Case-Shiller Shows Housing Prices Continue to Tumble
http://seekingalpha.com/article/239306-latest-s-p-case-shiller-shows-housing-prices-continue-to-tumble?source=dashboard_macro-view
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CS's Up-To-Date Housing Price Numbers

[mEDITate-OR:
not see a quite different set of CaseShiller graphs.

The 1st shows U.S. the 90 days ago drop after the buyers tax credit expired.

The 2nd shows U.S. if and by how much cities are above their lows.

The 3rd graph shows U.S. the month 2 month changes - by city.
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Up-To-Date Housing Price Numbers
http://seekingalpha.com/article/239317-up-to-date-housing-price-numbers?source=dashboard_macro-view
===========