Q4 Investment: Office, Mall, Lodging and Residential Components

[mEDITate-OR:
misunderstand what you need to understand.
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Once again, CR provides U.S. with the most cogent charts & explanation for the inside messages from the GDP advance report. 
Note: this is new construction. So, if they are foreclosing on U.S., and they are not building new home, condos OR apartments, where are we moving out to...???
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Remember - visit CR web site for the LARGE charts.
----------Malls, offices & Hotels
This graph shows investment in offices, malls and lodging as a percent of GDP. Office investment as a percent of GDP peaked at 0.46% in Q1 2008 and has declined sharply to a new series low as a percent of GDP (data series starts in 1959).
Investment in multimerchandise shopping structures (malls) peaked in 2007 and has fallen by two-thirds (note that investment includes remodels, so this will not fall to zero). Mall investment is also at a series low (as a percent of GDP).
The bubble boom in lodging investment was stunning. Lodging investment peaked at 0.32% of GDP in Q2 2008 and has fallen by over 70% already.
Notice that investment for all three categories typically falls for a year or two after the end of a recession, and then usually recovers very slowly (flat as a percent of GDP for 2 or 3 years). Something similar will probably happen again, and there will not be a recovery in these categories until the vacancy rates fall significantly.
-------------Residential investment
Investment in home improvement was at a $151.6 billion Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in Q4 (about 1.0% of GDP), significantly above the level of investment in single family structures of $106.2 billion (SAAR) (or 0.7% of GDP). 
Brokers' commissions increased slightly in Q4, but are near the lowest level (as a percent of GDP) since the early '80s. In dollar terms, brokers' commissions are back to the 1998 / 1999 levels.
And investment in multifamily structures has been bouncing along at a series low for the last few quarters, although this is expected to increase in 2011.
These graphs show there is currently very little investment in offices, malls and lodging - and also very little investment in most components of residential investment.
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Q4 Investment: Office, Mall, Lodging and Residential Components
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/02/q4-investment-office-mall-lodging-and.html
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