Saturday, March 5, 2011

Arizona's jobless rate worse than reported in 2009-10 + Arizona's revised job data gloomy

[mEDITate-OR:
not be absolutely stunned by this "Revelation"...
not only has the rate not been less than the national average, as we were all told...
but, it has been above both the national average & 10% for two years.
--------------
While that is as stunning admission, what is also interesting is that tis not AZ that made the mistake and revisions, twas the Federal Labor numbers.
So, even if AZ was telling the Truth, they couldn't due to faulty "national numbers"
Even more odd, is the fact that Col and Nev were also revised.
Beginning in June 08. Some reasonable explanation form BLS is required here.
Two sand states - the worst hit in the RE collapse - out of four have been UNDER reporting how bad it really was.
MOG.
------------
The real unemployment
Month
As reported then
As recalculated now
U.S.
9-Jan
8.00%
8.20%
7.80%
9-Feb
8.30%
8.60%
8.20%
9-Mar
8.70%
9.00%
9.60%
9-Apr
9.00%
9.30%
8.90%
9-May
9.20%
9.60%
9.40%
9-Jun
9.30%
9.80%
9.50%
9-Jul
9.40%
10.00%
9.50%
9-Aug
9.50%
10.20%
9.70%
9-Sep
9.40%
10.30%
9.80%
9-Oct
9.30%
10.30%
10.10%
9-Nov
9.30%
10.40%
9.90%
9-Dec
9.20%
10.40%
9.90%




10-Jan
9.20%
10.30%
9.70%
10-Feb
9.50%
10.20%
9.70%
10-Mar
9.60%
10.10%
9.70%
10-Apr
9.50%
10.10%
9.80%
10-May
9.60%
10.00%
9.60%
10-Jun
9.60%
10.00%
9.50%
10-Jul
9.60%
9.90%
9.50%
10-Aug
9.70%
9.90%
9.60%
10-Sep
9.70%
9.80%
9.60%
10-Oct
9.50%
9.80%
9.70%
10-Nov
9.40%
9.60%
9.80%
10-Dec
9.40%
9.60%
9.40%
11-Jan
9.60%
9.60%
9.00%

Source: Arizona Department of Commerce
-------------
Sector employment in 1,000s
Sector
Jan-11
At its peak*
Total nonfarm
2,362.20
2,713.60
Manufacturing
148.3
187.4
Natural resources & mining
10.7
14.3
Construction
106.2
247.5
Trade, transportation, utilities
468.5
549.2
Information/ 36.0
55.6

Financial activities
160.9
187.2
Professional & business services
330.2
408.7
Education & health services
350.7
323.2**
Leisure & hospitality
252.6
279.1
Other services
85.4
102
Government (including public education)
412.5
449
* Different sectors have different peak dates
** Prior peak in October 2008
Source: Arizona Department of Commerce
===
Arizona's jobless rate worse than reported in 2009, 2010
http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/arizona/eastvalleytribune.com/arizona/article_baa833e6-45bf-11e0-b164-001cc4c002e0.html
----------------
Arizona's revised job data gloomy
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/2011/03/04/20110304biz-jobs0304.html
======

Thursday, March 3, 2011

Jobless claims fall to nearly 3-year low = Services Expand, Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Fall

[mEDITate-OR:
think that having that sinking feeling..., is all bad.
-----------
La-fi-jobless-claims04
-----------
------------------
JoblessClaims-030311.jpg
---------
chart_jobless_claims.top.gif
==========
Jobless claims fall to nearly 3-year low
http://money.cnn.com/2011/03/03/news/economy/initial_claims/index.htm
------------
U.S. Economy: Services Expand, Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Fall
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-03-03/u-s-economy-services-expand-jobless-claims-unexpectedly-fall.html
==========

Gasoline prices rose to $3.29 per gallon + How Middle East unrest could lead to lower prices + Where Libya Ranks Among The Worst Oil Disruptions Of All Time

[mEDITate-OR:
think that what's squeezing you...
is a dirty low down rotten snake...
-------------
There are FAR more questions, than good answers.
One, DO the Saudis actually have any ability to increase supply.
We know the rest of OPEC does, bcuz they do it.
But, are the Saudis running out of oil?
Two, Other than the Europeans, who uses Libyan oil?
why would the prices charged U.S. change, or even would they...?
from Canada, from Mexico?
Three, with China increasing their use, and driving up the price over the last decade, even IF the Libyan crisis is solved - by Chavez from/in Venezuela? You must be joking. - will the price of crude oil & gas not still go up?
--------
Below is a chart showing the historical size of prior oil crises.
--------------
----------
gas prices
Gasoline prices and taxes by state
Prices at the pump can vary widely among states, due in large part to vastly different levels of gasoline tax.More
---------------
oil prices
------------
chart of the day, oil supply, disruptions, feb 2011
==============
Gasoline prices rose to $3.29 per gallon
Gas: Why I'm paying $4 but my neighbor isn't
http://money.cnn.com/2011/03/01/news/economy/_price_states/index.htm
-------------
How Middle East unrest could lead to lower prices
Vast liberalization and democratization in the Middle East could be positive for oil production in the long run. Just look at what happened in Russia and Iraq.
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/03/01/oil-fear-trade-how-middle-east-unrest-could-lead-to-lower-prices/
------------
CHART OF THE DAY: Where Libya Ranks Among The Worst Oil Disruptions Of All Time
http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-oil-supply-disruptions-2011-2?utm_source=Triggermail&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Clusterstock+Chart+Of+The+Day&utm_campaign=Clusterstock_COTD_030311
===========

Monday, February 28, 2011

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

[mEDITate-OR:
think that WE are a pessimist.
With no reason to be one.
--------------
This is Bill@CR's reminder of what is at stake here.
You can NOT say this better yourself.
Unless you read it, of course.
-----------
February's BLS report is out Thursday.
Here is an estimate:
Payroll Jobs per Month
--------------
And we have to remember the numbers are grim: 
• There are 7.7 million fewer payroll jobs now than before the recession started in December 2007.
• Almost 14 million Americans are unemployed.
• Of those unemployed, 6.2 million have been unemployed for six months or more.
• Another 8.4 million are working part time for economic reasons, 
• About 4 million more have left the labor force since the start of the recession (we can see this in the dramatic drop in the labor force participation rate), 
• of those who have left the labor force, about 1 million are available for work, but are discouraged and have given up.

A simple calculation: If the economy is adding 125,000 jobs per month (average over two months), it would take over 5 years to add back the 7.7 million lost payroll jobs - and that doesn't even include population growth. Grim is an understatement.
-----------
Percent Job Losses During Recessions
==========
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/02/jobs-jobs-jobs.html
=========

Which countries match the GDP, population and exports of Chinese provinces? + Which countries match the GDP and population of America's states?

[mEDITate-OR:
believe that all "states" are the same.
----------------
And, then realize that being in The Great "State" of Californication is unlike any other.
And, then realize that it is simply not true, or just.
--------
These two Economist "interactive graphs" present some stunning comparisons.
Fun to do, very interesting to see.
-----------
Which countries match the GDP and population of America's states?
IT HAS long been true that California on its own would rank as one of the biggest economies of the world. These days, it would rank eighth, falling between Italy and Brazil on a nominal exchange-rate basis. But how do other American states compare with other countries? Taking the nearest equivalent country from 2009 data reveals some surprises. Who would have thought that, despite years of auto-industry hardship, the economy of Michigan is still the same size as Taiwan's?
------------
Which countries match the GDP, population and exports of Chinese provinces?
China is now the world’s second-biggest economy, but some of its provinces by themselves would rank fairly high in the global league. Our map shows the nearest equivalent country. For example, Guangdong's GDP (at market exchange rates) is almost as big as Indonesia's; the output of both Jiangsu and Shandong exceeds Switzerland’s. Some provinces may exaggerate their output: the sum of their reported GDPs is 10% higher than the national total. But over time the latter has consistently been revised up, suggesting that any overstatement is modest.
What about other economic yardsticks? Guangdong exports as much as South Korea, Jiangsu as much as Taiwan. Shanghai’s GDP per person is as high as Saudi Arabia’s (at purchasing-power parity), though still well below that in China’s special administrative regions, Hong Kong and Macau. At the other extreme, the poorest province, Guizhou, has an income per head close to that of India. Note that these figures use the same PPP conversion rate for the whole of China, but prices are likely to be lower in poorer provinces than in richer ones, slightly reducing regional inequality.
============
Which countries match the GDP, population and exports of Chinese provinces?
http://www.economist.com/content/all_parities_china
-------------
Which countries match the GDP and population of America's states?
http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/01/comparing_us_states_countries
=========

Which countries depend most on Libyan oil? = Libya: Spending oil money across the globe

[mEDITate-OR:
miss the fact that who imports the most quantity of Libyan oil...
is NOT the same as who is most "Dependent" on using it.
AND
miss completely where they put all that cash...
------
Last we were told, and showed you, the size...
this week The Economist shows U.S. who is most dependent.
Very different numbers, picture.
--------
This week CNN shows U.S. in the 2nd chart the 35 countries where Libya has stashed the cash.
What they also told U.S. is how much WE got, and were it is hiding.
So we froze it. What got frozen and where...
How much is unfrozen, and where is that.
in banks, in USTBills, in RE, in the UK and, of course, it's former colonial masters - Italy.
Read the full CNN article = fascinating.
------------

-----------
LIBYA: SPENDING OIL MONEY
====
Which countries depend most on Libyan oil?
http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/02/libyan_oil
------------
Libya: Spending oil money across the globe
http://money.cnn.com/2011/03/02/news/international/Libya_investment_reach/index.htm
============

Consumer spending increased 0.2% = Tax Cuts Boost Americans' Incomes in January

[mEDITate-OR:
or not see that WE are like the Big Bad Banks...
not doing what "They" wanted U.S. to do.
----------
They cut (y)our taxes, so we would have more money to spend, to pump up the economy.
Other than what we spent on higher gas and food, we saved some of it.
Bad, very bad. You may be confined to your quarters, for two reasons.
------------

------------

=========
Tax Cuts Boost Americans' Incomes in January
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/02/tax-cuts-boost-americans-incomes-in-january/71786/
-----------

===========

Pending home sales drop 2.8% = Cast Doubt on Housing Recovery

---------

============
Pending home sales Cast Doubt on Housing Recovery
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/02/pending-home-sales-cast-doubt-on-housing-recovery/71815/
----------
Pending homes sales fell 2.8% in January
http://www.housingwire.com/2011/02/28/nar-pending-homes-sales-fell-2-8-in-january
===========

Sunday, February 27, 2011

Housing activity is all about price = New report highlights quarterly sales activity based on list prices

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that Them There Coyotes would be better off if they were in Canada..
-------
JGBHimself
Feb-27 @ 2:17 PM
First, thanks Craig, and to AZRMLS for finally providing these numbers, that ASU and others have ignored. For them there were no dogs anywhere in Arizona, bcuz they couldn't seer them, or hear them bark. They probably assumed all that howling was by Them Coyotes, looking for some/any/one to buy a new home for or from them.

What this chart show U.S. is what insiders knew, that while everybody was looking at cash investors buying up the lowest of the REO-foreclosed homes, the rest of U.S. were being gang tackled on the way to first base. Might be the right game, but wrong ballpark.

When W "nationalized" FMae&FMac, they also increase the RE loan limits for both FMae&FMac, who were making more than 85% of all RE loans. Without that source of loan money there would have been even more pain to those just above the old limits. To buy a loan for a new purchaser they would have had to cut their prices to below the old limits. Or, purchasers would have had to come up with huge down payments.

What none of U.S. expected to see is home values, according to AZRep MsC this week, drop almost 62% in four years. However, that also meant that MANY more homes, with substantially reduced prices, COULD obtain financing. But, as you point out for homes above the current limits there still is no financing, anywhere, at any reasonable price. So too for condo sales - new or existing.

What is currently being demanded in the House/Congress by most R's is an immediate cut in all RE loan limits. What that will do is drive DOWN the availability of home loans, and force those below the current limits and above the new lower limits, to choose between substantially cutting your price, again, or not being able to sell your home. An ugly choice.

Look at the US$500k line = below there are 7 times the sales, 4 times the listings, 3/4th the time on market & half the months supply.

Move up another US$ 250k = sale drop by another 1/3rd, listings drop by another 1/2, days increase by another 25% and supply almost doubles again.

This is a bifurcated RE market - between those who can sell, and those who simply cannot. And, the House/Reps proposes to make this even worse
------------

Price rangeQ4 homes soldQ4 active listingsAverage days on the marketMonths' supply of inventory
$30,000-$100,0006,25332,143955.1
$100,001-$250,0008,06747,0991035.8
$250,001-$500,0002,85016,7671225.9
$500,001-$750,0003934,49616111.4
$750,001-$1,000,0001352,62319819.4
$1,000,001-$1,500,000891,79220720.1
$1,500,001-$2,000,000341,08934432
$2,000,001-$3,000,0003299440431
$3,000,001 and up1270843659
Source: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service
========
Housing activity is all about price
New report highlights quarterly sales activity based on list prices
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/2011/02/27/20110227biz-insider0227anderson.html
========

Saturday, February 26, 2011

Problem bank list hits new high + Problem bank ratio at 23-year high = Unofficial Problem Bank List Feb 25, 2011

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that the bank crisis is over...
---------
Sadly, tis not close to being true.
This week we got two articles by Colin Barr in Fortune, that point out to U.S. that while the number of banks still in existence, the number "in trouble" is still increasing and the size of the problem is getting worse, not better.
This week Bill@CR provided U.S. with the latest, and first of this year, "Unofficial List of Problem Banks"
--
The simple blunt truth is that most of the non-performing commercial RE loans on the books of small banks have NOT be reduced in value to current market. Delay and Deny.
--
This week the Big Bad Banks are, finally, telling U.S. that their credit card debts are much larger than they have admitted.
And, the same "Servicer" banks notified the SEC that they might owe U.S. a ton of money for their origination, servicing and non-modification criminal acts.
--
Ugly, and about to get much Uglier.
-----------
CR Note:
The FDIC released the Q4 Quarterly Banking Profile this week.
The FDIC reported 884 official "problem" institutions at the end of 2010 (the highest since 1992) with $390 billion in assets.
There are a total 6,529 commercial banks and 1,128 savings institutions, so about 11.5% are on the "problem" list. Assets of all institutions are $13.1 trillion, so problem institutions have just under 3% of total assets.
----------
-------------
--------------
chart_bank_count2_03.gif
-------------
chart_more_banks_more_problems2_03.gif
==========
Unofficial Problem Bank List Feb 25, 2011
http://calculatedriskimages.blogspot.com/2011/02/unofficial-problem-bank-list-feb-25.html
=============
Problem bank list hits new high
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/02/23/problem-bank-list-hits-new-high/
---------------
Problem bank ratio at 23-year high
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/02/23/problem-bank-ratio-at-23-year-high/
===========

Should Mortgage Servicer Lawsuit Settlements Include Principal Cuts?

[mEDITate-OR:
misread how big this problem really is, and who would be helped out...
----------
You may, permissive, as in ought to - economically, politically and legally - read Daniel's@Atlantic analysis of what he thinks he sees, and does not.
Then, you may also compare these thoughts below.
----------
Daniel, took me over two years to convince Jim@CR that ARM re-sets were no longer a problem, bcuz most if not all of them had already strategically defaulted, been foreclosed on or BKed out.

Didn't know/see if that was true in Cal, Nev & Fla, but it obviously was in AZ.

For exactly the same reason we now suggest to you that mortgage "write downs" are: first, not a very serious national problem, and for most no longer are one in the sand states; and second, will impact very few people outside the sand states. For many of the same reasons HAMP was designed, knowingly or not, to fail.

But, here IS "The Problem."

Those who were "sold" those bad ARMs & subprime RE loans, were told that through appreciation they would make out like a bandit - Mexican or American. What they were NOT told was that the maker of that loan had front loaded all the profit they might make in the future out of the property and into their pockets. Would take years for the borrower to break even. Would take a NY bankster minute to walk away with the cash.

Now, here is The Really Bad Problem: Many others did NOT take out bad ARM or subprime RE loans. They played by The Rules - put down 20% or more of their hard earned savings, on a conventional loan! They have desperately been paying The Bills. They cannot sell, they cannot refi, they cannot move, they cannot save themselves or their families future. They have, in Canadian English, been Pucked.

Would it really cost U.S. too much to "insure" them against the bad ARMs & subprime RE loans that were made by the Big Bad Bankster, to greedy investors - some living in the homes, many not - that surrounded them. Dan, are you familiar with "flood insurance". What, precisely, is the difference here?

First, understand that "The Write Downs" will not affect those around them without RE mortgages. Second, that it will not affect any of those who walked out & away. Third, those who refi'd out all their profits, will not get to go back N double dip.

Without naming names, there were many, some beginning, police, fire, school teachers, etc; and many more private employees of Intel, Boeing, and many other businesses that bought what they could find, at the only price they could find, as close to their jobs as they could get in AZ. They have lost Trillions.

You forgivably might think/argue that their neighbors also lost Trillions. No, they did not. They did not "sell high" and therefore MAKE or GAIN Trillions, but they also do not OWE Trillions.

The REAL question is are we, as a society &/v polis, willing to make a small adjustment to help those who did NOT cause this problem, but are being nevertheless Pucked?

We are NOT being forced to spread that cost out among all the rest of U.S. - yet. What we CAN do is force those who profited by The Puckin Mess, to "cover" the harm they forced upon those who did not ask for it, did not deserve it, and cannot protect themselves from it.

Can we expect Obama to do this for U.S.? Sadly, probably not, to his shame, and those who voted for him.

But, that does NOT mean that WE cannot do it.
-------------
The true scale of this is not even mentioned. The new investor litigation is only BoA/Countrywide. Yet to appear in court are WAMU/Chase and Wichovia/Wells.

During the dead years - 02 to 06, in AZ and the other sand states, those same three banksters created over US$ 3.5 Trillion in RE loans. Of those, US$ 2.5 Trillion were very bad ARMs and subprime mortgages. Almost all of them, some report over 85%, are in "trouble" = deeply underwater, seriously delinquent, in or back out of the foreclosure or bankruptcy process.

ALL of the residents of the sand states have seen their property values decline by over 50%, or more. Not only the defrauded bad loan takers and the bad loan makers, but every BODY in those sand states.

How many of the 8 + Million of U.S. who have lost their jobs subsequent to this massive fraud, and collapse, did so bcuz of it? How may more will? How long will we be "unemployed".

Not only did their bad RE loans destroy over US$ 1.5 Trillion in THOSE sand state loans, but they impacted everyone around them!

Home owners in Az, Cal, Nev & Fla have lost a multiplier of US$ 1.5 Trillion - probably US$ 4.5 Trillion - and they/Obama are now willing to cut a deal to let the banksters off the hook for only US$ 20 Billion. MOG.

The same "advisors" that talked W into TARP and nationalizing FMae&FMac and bailing out GM, Chrysler, etc, are now talking Obama into screwing many of U.S. out of more than half of our home equity. Prior to the election "They" said that W was a simpleton and a fool..., little did they know.
----------
This is about "common law fraud".

Throw in a little SEC securities fraud, and a little criminal buying of forged, fraudulent paperwork, to be given to a court in violation of legal malpractice standards, etc.

If you really think that what Countrywide, Wichovia, WAMU and New Century were doing was in any way "legal", you should buy some waterfront property on the Salt River near Phoenix, Az. Or, some Colorado River bank property in Mexico, and the "end of the river", no puns intended.

This is NOT about who stopped paying - note: stopped - 85% of them already have. This is about who will EAT the loss.

There is a word, in law, "disgorgement"!

A repayment of ill-gotten gains that is imposed on wrong-doers by the courts. Funds that were received through illegal or unethical business transactions are disgorged, or paid back, with interest to those affected by the action. Disgorgement is a remedial civil action, rather than a punitive civil action.

Tis not about mommy & daddy Emperor Penguin's coughing up food for the kidlet. Tis about forcing someone who has stolen or defrauded someone to give back what they stole or obtained by fraud.

The question is, as Daniel is pointing out to you: WHO will cough up how much AND who will get the proceeds.

Daniel admits that he does not know all the answers. The least we could do is the same, about some of them.
===========
Should Mortgage Servicer Lawsuit Settlements Include Principal Cuts?
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/02/should-mortgage-servicer-lawsuit-settlements-include-principal-cuts/71681/
==========

What Foreclosure Sales Say About Home Price Trends

[mEDITate-OR:
think that Daniel@Atlantic fully explains the dichotomy between NAR & CoreLogic foreclosure sales numbers.
-------------
Let's not mix apples in Wa with orange in Cal N Fla., or with Grapefruit in AZ that they don't grow anymore.

NAR does NOT keep track of foreclosure sales @ the end of the foreclosure process; they do NOT sit on the courthouse steps. They do track and report Pending sales by their members which are NOT reported anywhere else, bcuz nothing is "filed"; and they report final/closed member sales. What they might tell U.S., if they are told, is whether the sale or pending sale is a re-sale of a foreclosed property. They might, be told, report, or not.

What RealtyTrac is following are final foreclosures, and separately RE sales. They are very different. What you seem to suggest is that RT reports all or most of the re-sales of foreclosed properties. They do not, exactly, do that. As Obama said about his budget: There are some cracks in there that you might not see. (Sorry. Maybe.)

When a home is finally foreclosed, it is "sold" at a foreclosure sale. Might be to a new purchaser; might be back to the bank at their minimum. The sales price @ foreclosure, on the courthouse steps or in non-judicial, is NOT an accurate number for the eventual sales price.

Some buyers @ foreclosure re-sell for a profit. Buy low; sell via NAR or themselves high. Banks will bid their mortgage, so as to not have to write down the loss and tell FDIC. Then they list it, slowly, over time, as sales eat them up, to try to not loose any more money. Sometimes they win, sometimes they loose. Both of them.

First, what you are noticing is that The Banksters control the flow of REO properties they list, and then sell. Neither NAR or anyone else knows how many REO homes are being held back off the RE markets, or where. And, frankly they do not care, only about their sales commissions. The only thing NAR sees is what is listed with them, and reported to them. No more, maybe less.

There are two things that are currently happening that NAR cannot see, or report, accurately; bcuz thing they are a'changin. First, cash investors jumped back into the market when C-S suggested that prices has "stabilized", shortly after the expiration of the Tax Credit. Then when more current sales number showed U.S. that the prices were back in almost free fall, the cash investors backed out of the single family market - except for the REO minimum priced sales. You do see, do you not, that they knew that the banks would NOT flood the market, and the absolute minimum prices would stay at that level. That has absolutely nothing to DO with existing homes. Well, those that are still lived in.

What NAR thinks they see is the "average sales prices" of their own listings. And, yes, what they DO see is cash sales of the cheapest REO properties. What they do NOT see are unlisted REOs and unlisted & unfinancable condos and above jumbo limit RE properties, and non-sales.

And, Daniel your last line is probably wrong. We actually might be. Tis called wallowing, in the trough, of the 7th wave.
==========
What Foreclosure Sales Say About Home Price Trends
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/02/what-foreclosure-sales-say-about-home-price-trends/71676/
===========

Gas prices: Brace for another surge + Oil prices top $103

------------
chart_gas.top.jpg
------------
Gasoline prices and taxes by state
Gasoline prices and taxes by state
Prices at the pump can vary widely among states, due in large part to vastly different levels of gasoline tax.
More
-----------
U.S. commodities, oil supply markets
===============
Gas prices: Brace for another surge
http://money.cnn.com/2011/02/24/news/economy/gas_prices/index.htm
-----------
Oil prices top $103
http://money.cnn.com/2011/02/24/markets/oil/index.htm
==============