THE WEEK IN CHARTS June 3: A week of economic disappointment = Worst jobs growth since September + Labor-force participation rate stuck + Manufacturing worries + Auto impact on manufacturing numbers + Home prices and construction

[mEDITate-OR:
think all Hell has broken loose...
and then find out that it really has.
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First, this is The Week in Charts from MarketWatch
which they turn out every Friday
They provide first charts, and then an article about it
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Of course, the Unemployment numbers are The LEAD story.
Not only are jobs growth down, a lot.
but based on the last five month growth, many re-entered the market.
So, back they come, and there go the jobs.
Tragically sad.
The 3rd graph & article show U.S. that labor participation has NOT improved.
The 4th & 5th graph & article are about the bad ISM info this week.
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The last graph is about Case-Shiller.
Note the table below the graph - the worst hit cities.
Then note the ones in red - the West Coast.
Not only were we worse off than the rest of U.S.
but, now we are falling even farther back.
Tragically sad
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They may call it "disappointing"
we call it disgustingly terrible.
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-----------Worst jobs growth since September

------------Labor-force participation rate stuck

------------Manufacturing worries

-------------Auto impact on manufacturing numbers

----------Home prices and construction

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In ascending order, here’s how each of the 20 cities fared over the past year:

Minneapolis, down 10%

Phoenix, down 8.4%

Chicago, down 7.6%

Portland, Ore., down 7.6%

Seattle, down 7.5%

Tampa, Fla., down 6.9%

Charlotte, N.C., down 6.8%

Cleveland, down 6.3%

Miami, Fla., down 6.1%

Las Vegas, down 5.3%

Atlanta, down 5.2%

San Francisco, down 5.1%

San Diego, down 4.0%

Denver, down 3.8%

New York, down 3.4%

Boston, down 2.7%

Dallas, down 2.5%; %

Los Angeles, down 1.7%

Detroit, down 0.9%

and Washington D.C., up 4.3%.

======
THE WEEK IN CHARTS June 3: A week of economic disappointment
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/in-charts-a-week-of-economic-disappointment-2011-06-03?link=mw_story_kiosk
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May jobs growth slows to 54,000, a nine-month low
Jobless rate up to 9.1%, worst since December
Worst jobs growth since September
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/may-jobs-growth-slows-to-54000-a-nine-month-low-2011-06-03?mod=mw_outbrain&Link=obnetwork
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Republicans rip Obama over jobs data
Economist Roubini sees U.S. economy ‘close to stall speed
Labor-force participation rate stuck
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/republicans-rip-obama-over-jobs-data-2011-06-03
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ISM manufacturing gauge tumbles in May
Third straight decline puts index at lowest level in one year
Manufacturing worries
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ism-manufacturing-gauge-tumbles-in-may-2011-06-01
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Toyota, Honda monthly sales hit hard
Auto impact on manufacturing numbers
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gm-posts-may-us-sales-decline-2011-06-01
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Housing in double-dip decline as prices fall again
S&P/Case-Shiller index shows U.S. values falling below 2009 trough
Home prices and construction
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-data-signals-double-dip-in-housing-2011-05-31
====

May jobs report: Hiring slows, unemployment rises

[mEDITate-OR:
think you have fallen..., and can't get up...
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May jobs report: Hiring slows, unemployment rises

http://money.cnn.com/2011/06/03/news/economy/may_jobs_report_unemployment/index.htm?iid=HP_Highlight

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Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for March = Home prices: 'Double-dip' confirmed + Hit Ten-Year Record Lows in Q-1

[mEDITate-OR:
believed them when they said it could not be done...
But, they did do it.
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Home prices: 'Double-dip' confirmed + Hit Ten-Year Record Lows in Q-1
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Mortgage Delinquencies by State: Percent and Number + 5 by 10 states = Before Crisis, Peak and Current

[mEDITate-OR:

not see how low the West Coast and Rocky Mountain states were before the collapse in 07

and then how HIGH they went when they fell.

Late to The Party...

but what a mess there in now.

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As we have regularly pointed out by showing U.S. different charts using the same data

The 1st two charts show severity vs size = percent vs numbers.

In the first chart Nev & Az are near the top in severity, and you have to look, to the far right, for Texas.

In the 2nd chart you DO see Texas with very low foreclosures, but huge late loan numbers.

Something has or is changing

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In the 3rd and 5th charts we something very unusual.

While we all know about the Nev, Cal and AZ sand state collapse caused by bad ARMs and subprime RE loans, what we did NOT expect to see is how LOW foreclosures were back in 2007.

And, that appears to be confirmed with Wa, OR, and Utah in the 3rd chart

and with Idaho in the 4th and Hawaii in the 2nd.

West of the Rockies, foreclosures were few and isolated in 07

Then in 08-9-10 they exploded.

First, in Cal, Nev & Az in 08, then everybody else a year or two later.

Now, while Cal, and Az look to be getting better.

Wa, OR, Id, Utah and Col appear to be getting worse.

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The Far West and the South have been extremely hard hit.

And, the Midwest. But the Northeast has not been, as hard.

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But, for the Far West

they went from very much better...

to very much worse.

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Once again thanks to Bill@CR we can see it clearly now.

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Mortgage Delinquencies by State: Percent and Number
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/mortgage-delinquencies-by-state-percent.html
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Mortgage Delinquencies by State: Before Crisis, Peak and Current
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/mortgage-delinquencies-by-state-before.html
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Mortgage Delinquencies by State: Before Crisis, Peak and Current + 40 states
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/mortgage-delinquencies-by-state-before_20.html
=========

Foreclosure Sale Discount by State = U.S. Home Foreclosures Account for 28% of All Residential Sales in Q-1 = Foreclosure Sales Centered in Few States, So Why Should We Care?

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that The Problem is in someone else's pocket.
-------------
While these article and charts are based upon the same RealtyTrac numbers
their view of them are quite different.
The 1st REO chart shows U.S. again like the post below that PLSec are still larger than either FMae OR FMac's.
The map from Diana Olrick shows U.S. that the size is very different from the severity of the problem - Cal & Fla are huge, bcuz they are; while Nev & AZ's problem is more severe, if smaller.
And, while Texas is assumed to be the strongest employment growth state, they also have a huge foreclosure problem - much larger than we have been led to believe.
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Daniel@Atlantic shows U.S. that where we assumed the "foreclosure discounts" were, they are not.
However, we simply do not believe that Nev and Az are correct. What they might not be doing is including the full discount from the peak.
As the RealtyTrac table shows U.S. the discounts from last year are not that large in Az & Nev, but the percent of total sales that are REO properties is HUGE.
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What this appears to be evidence of is that "all cash investor buyers" are bottom feeding on the least expensive REO's listed. And, that the banks are feeding listings only as fast as they are being purchased. A "balance of supply and demand" at the very bottom of the RE market.
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Foreclosure Sale Discount by State
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/05/chart-of-the-day-foreclosure-sale-discount-by-state/239517/
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U.S. Home Foreclosures Account for 28% of All Residential Sales in Q-1
http://www.worldpropertychannel.com/us-markets/residential-real-estate-1/us-foreclosure-report-realtytrac-reo-foreclosures-q1-2011-us-foreclosure-sales-report-foreclosure-rates-loan-default-rates-foreclosure-filings-4340.php
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Foreclosure Sales Centered in Few States, So Why Should We Care?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43182211
==========

CR: The Foreclosure Pipeline + NY Times: The Glut of Foreclosed Homes + Mortgage Delinquencies by Loan Type

[mEDITate-OR:
not see the elly-phlants in the room...
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This week Jim@CR provided U.S. with the most in depth report and charts showing U.S. the size and nature of the "distressed property" problem.
In the 1st chart CR & Tom Lawler show U.S. who hold The Problem in their pockets.
In 08 most of the foreclosures were the bad ARMs and subprime RE loans in the sand states that had gone delinquent - the Countrywide, WAMU, Wichovia and New Century implossion.
Then we see FMae&FMac and then FHA get into The Act.
However, note that as bad as their problem are, the FDIC banks & thrifts AND the PLS problems are still with U.S. and still almost half of The Problem.
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They are not Ba-a-a-ack, they never went away.
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In CR's three charts we see the size of the segments of the mess.
In CR's four graphs we see scope of the prime, subprime, FHA and VA problems.
However, note that while subprimes still appear to be the most severely impacted.
the SIZE of the prime RE loans is now the most serious.
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and with 16+% of U.S. no longer working, this problem is sadly getting worse.
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Single Family REO Inventory: Number of Properties
	Q1 2011	Peak Quarter	Peak
Fannie Mae	153,224	Q3 2010	166,787
Freddie Mac	65,159	Q3 2010	74,897
FHA	68,997	Current quarter	68,997
PLS	171,566	Q3 2008	436,270
Subtotal	458,946	Q3 2008	570,634
Banks & Thrifts	???

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Single Family Activity in Q1 2011
	Freddie	Fannie	FHA	Total
REOs Acquired	24,709	53,549	23,739	101,997
REOs Sold	31,628	62,814	15,581	110,023
Mods and Short Sales1	62,641	78,079	60,0002	200,720

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MBA National Delinquency Survey Loan Count
	Q2 2007	Q1 2011	Change	Seriously Delinquent
Prime	33,916,830	31,897,319	-2,019,511	1,859,614
Subprime	6,204,535	4,180,219	-2,024,316	1,109,848
FHA	3,030,214	6,285,254	3,255,040	511,620
VA	1,096,450	1,366,455	270,005	62,720
Survey Total	44,248,029	43,729,247	-518,782	3,572,679

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=======
CR: The Foreclosure Pipeline
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/foreclosure-pipeline.html
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NY Times: The Glut of Foreclosed Homes
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/ny-times-glut-of-foreclosed-homes.html
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Mortgage Delinquencies by Loan Type
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/mortgage-delinquencies-by-loan-type.html
=======

Seriously Delinquent Homeowners Undermine Hopes of a Market Recovery + April 2011 Existing Home Sales A Mediocre Start to the High Buying Season

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that the problem(s) all went away...
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The 1st two charts and article show U.S. that not only is there a huge supply, possibly as many as a million, of home "occupiers" who are not paying anything on there delinquent mortgages.
These are people who have had an NOD given to them, and are fully IN foreclosure.
This does NOT show U.S. those not yet admitted to the process.
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The 2nd chart shows U.S. something most do not believe - that non-judicial states are as slow as judicial states. While NY and Fla are much slower, just below them are states with the same time frames as the slowest non-judicial states.
Sadly, Fla has just eliminated its Rocket Docket funding, so there time will be dramatically extended.
Which means those NVNP = not vacant, not paying, home "occupants" will get to camp out for a lot longer.
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In the 2nd two charts Keith Jurow shows U.S. how bad existing home sales are.
Like with Jim@CR when you see the monthly sales side by side
you see that we are so far down we can't see how to get back up.
And, what ALL reports now are telling/showing U.S. home prices are double-dipping.
This could be a very ugly year.
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Seriously Delinquent Homeowners Undermine Hopes of a Market Recovery

http://econintersect.com/wordpress/?p=9055&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GEI+5-24-2011&utm_content=GEI+5-24-2011+CID_09f3f015101d4c5f3388baba08b6a5e7&utm_source=Email+marketing+software&utm_term=Housing+Market+Recovery+Undermined+by+Seriously+Deliquent+Homeowners

http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/housing-market-delinquent-homeowners-housing-market/5/23/2011/id/34704?camp=featuredslide&medium=home&from=minyanville

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April 2011 Existing Home Sales A Mediocre Start to the High Buying Season
http://econintersect.com/wordpress/?p=8978
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Unofficial Problem Bank list increases to 997 Institutions + Schedule for Week of May 29th + Summary for Week Ending May 27th

[mEDITate-OR:
see that we are almost there...!!!
hitting a 1000..., finally.
-------------
In addition to CR's Weekly Summary and CR's Schedule for next week
we received the "unofficial problem bank list"
What that shows U.S. is the problem is spreading out
impacting many more smaller banks & CUs
What FDIC is doing is subsidizing the better run banks
to buy the ones in the most trouble.
thereby consolidating the industry and flushing the bad loans.
Can you hear the Fat Lady Sing? And, see the end?
If so, you need to get your hearing & eyes re-examined.
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While CR does not think the jobs will increase, much if at all
they still show U.S. how far below normal we really are.
"there are currently 6.96 million fewer jobs in the U.S.
than when the recession started in 2007."
You cannot cover that up or over - we need jobs. Lots a jobs
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While CR tries to explain/estimate how large the "hidden inventory" really is
they show U.S. once again how low new home sales are
and why the distressing gap simply has not gone away, or gotten better.
This week Jim@CR will make another stab at it.
Pray, for a full recovery.
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Unofficial Problem Bank list increases to 997 Institutions
http://calculatedriskimages.blogspot.com/2011/05/unofficial-problem-bank-list-may-27.html
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Unofficial Problem Bank list increases to 997 Institutions
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/unofficial-problem-bank-list-increases_28.html
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Summary for Week Ending May 27th
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/summary-for-week-ending-may-27th.html
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Schedule for Week of May 29th
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/schedule-for-week-of-may-29th.html
===========

Housing starts fell 10.6% in April + Housing Starts and Permits Show Construction Sagging

[mEDITate-OR:
believe that the number is accurate...
without distinguishing single homes from multi-unit apartments.
-------
First, The Charts:
the 1st two are simple charts by Daniel@Atlantic.
they show U.S. his point - we are wallowing
the 2nd two are from Sold@PaperEconomy
they also show U.S. permits & starts
but with a lot more detail & info
The last is from FinFact in Ireland
but, unlike Daniel & Sold they also separate one units from more
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Next the conflict that they all ignore.
What everyone must know by now, apartments are extremely volatile.
Including them WITH singe unit starts is VERY misleading.
For example, with foreclosures still running high, there are huge numbers of vacant home, and REOs for sale.
Apartments however are seeing very low vacancy rates, and much higher rents.
Therefore, a reduction in new homes makes sense.
As would a huge increase in apartment & condo construction.
BUT, and it is a very large but, there is very little financing available for that.
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Finally, the industry reports:
Both the HousingWire and the newly re-titled Worldpropertychannel
use the same heading to report the same Census report info
But, the HW does not separate out "apartments", at all.
WPC does, but fails to tell U.S. how much that changed.
Given the volatility that both know exists, this is misleading reporting.
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Post-script:
The only news report that we have found anywhere that consistently separates and accurately reports multi-unit construction is Bloomberg.
This is what THEY tell U.S.:
Work on multifamily homes, such as townhouses and apartments, fell 24 percent to an annual rate of 129,000, the weakest so far this year.
and
Starts dropped by a 23 percent decrease in the South, the largest area.
All of the weakness in starts was due to the plunge in the South, reflecting flooding on the Mississippi River that continued into May
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We should NOT have to hunt down this vital piece of information.
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Housing starts fell 10.6% in April
Same title, different source and article:
http://www.housingwire.com/2011/05/17/housing-starts-fell-10-6-in-april
version 2
http://www.worldpropertychannel.com/us-markets/residential-real-estate-1/new-home-construction-us-census-bureau-department-of-housing-and-urban-development-hud-new-housing-starts-homes-for-sale-building-permits-4302.php
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Housing Starts and Permits Show Construction Sagging
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/05/housing-starts-and-permits-show-construction-sagging/239000/
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New Residential Construction Report: April 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/05/new-residential-construction-report.html
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US home construction fell in April
US manufacturing production dipped due to Japan's earthquake supply Disruption
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1022317.shtml
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Housing Starts in U.S. Unexpectedly Decline
on Southern Floods, Tornadoes
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-17/u-s-housing-starts-unexpectedly-declined-in-april-to-523-000-annual-pace.html
==========

The Weekly summaries: The A List = Calculated Risk & The Paper Economy; The B List = BLS-TED and MarketWatch - This Week in Charts

[mEDITate-OR:
not know about The Weekly summaries...
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If you do not "follow the lead of" Calculated Risk you probably do not know that at the end of each week, Bill provides two Summaries - what significant happened last week, and what significant will happen this week.
This is The Classic Debate Method = Tell them what you are gonna tell them - tell them - and then tell them what they should remember about what you have told them.
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Sold on the Top doesn't do that - he merely provides wonderful charts, and decent explanations.
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MarketWatch and BLS-TED are two very good but very different week sets of charts.
MW is a weekly Summary, TED is not.
MW also provides a quick link to the main WSJ articles about each chart.
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Daniel and Colin are "analysts"
while their charts are good, and Daniel's are generally better...
tis there analysis of their charts that is outstanding.
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Each of these very valuable resources are weekly must reads.
FYI
Enjoy.
=====     The A List:
Summary for Week Ending May 13th
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/summary-for-week-ending-may-13th.html
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Schedule for Week of May 15th
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/schedule-for-week-of-may-15th.html
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The Paper Economy
= A US real estate bubble blog
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/
=======     The B List
THE WEEK IN CHARTS May 13:
Rising Prices; Food at home; Four-week jobless claims average; Job openings rise
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/in-charts-inflation-and-inflation-expectations-2011-05-13?link=mw_story_kiosk
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BLS-TED:
Job openings and rate; Import and export prices increase; Productivity 1stQ;Unemployment rate at 9.0 percent; Employment changes by industry
http://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/archive.htm#may11
==========    THE Analysts:
Daniel Indiviglio 
is an associate editor at The Atlantic, where he writes about credit markets, regulation, monetary & fiscal policy, taxes, banking, trade, emerging markets and technology.
http://www.theatlantic.com/daniel-indiviglio
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Street Sweep by Colin Barr
Following the money in banking, economics and Washington
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/category/street-sweep/?iid=H_F_QL
==========

Weekly Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Jump To 8-Month High = surged by 43000 to 474000 last week + previous week's revised figure of 431,000 - from the 429,000 originally reported + Economists had expected claims would drop to 410,000

[mEDITate-OR:
think everything is getting better every day...
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Three very different views of the same data
1st is the basic new claims data.
2nd is the 4 week moving average from CR
3rd is on that shows both.
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Disirregarless, even...
this weeks report is simply ugly.
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Weekly Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Jump To 8-Month High
http://www.rttnews.com/ArticleView.aspx?Id=1615995
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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims sharply higher
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims.html
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How Washington F@#$%! the budget = Since 2001, lawmakers time and again have cut taxes or increased spending without finding ways to pay for their decisions. Both parties share the blame.

[mEDITate-OR:
see a Trillion here and a Trillion there...
and wonder when it will become real money...
--------
Tis not that often that CNN gets it right anymore
but this time they nailed it...
and YOUR political party to the walls of Congress.
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How Washington F@#$%! the budget

Since 2001, lawmakers time and again have cut taxes

or increased spending without finding ways to pay for their decisions.

Both parties share the blame.

http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2011/news/economy/1104/gallery.budget_spending/index.html

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Bush tax cuts: 2001, 2003 and 2006
an initial 10-year cost estimate of $1.35 trillion
The cost of the latest two-year extension? $544.3 billion
That's the first 0f W's US$ 2 Trillions
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War funding: 2001 to present

In order to fund wars in Iraq and Afghanistan

Presidents Bush and Obama have spent more than $1 trillion on direct costs alone.

On top of that, annual defense spending has just about doubled since 2001

rising to almost $700 billion in 2010.

Military spending now accounts for more 20% of the entire federal budget
That's another US 1 Trillion

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Medicare drug benefit: 2003
Originally estimated to cost $395 billion over 10 years
estimated that Medicare Part D will cost about $1 trillion dollars over the next 10 years
That's another of W's US$ 1 Trillions
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Bush stimulus: 2008
a $168 billion stimulus package
The tax cuts and other incentives -- totaling around 1% of GDP -- weren't paid for.
W's stimulus and TARP below are another US$ 1 Trillion.
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TARP bailouts: 2008
spend up to $700 billion to help stabilize financial markets.
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American Recovery Act: 2009
cost revised to $862 billion.
Not to be out done Obama cost U.S. another Trillion
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The Republican-Obama tax package: 2010
projected to cost $858 billion over ten years.
Your newly elected Republican House demanded this one.
and Obama gave it to them and U.S. = another US$ Trillion
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Debt at the breaking point
Today, the national debt stands at more than $14 trillion
=========