Thursday, December 1, 2011

LPS: Mortgages In Foreclosure Process at an All-Time High

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that taking Ex-lax will cleans (y)our system...
when what remains is SO full of shiites.
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LPS reports that a record 4.29% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, up from 4.18% in September, and up from 3.92% in October 2010.
This gives a total of 12.22% delinquent or in foreclosure.
It breaks down as:
2.33 million loans less than 90 days delinquent.
1.76 million loans 90+ days delinquent.
2.21 million loans in foreclosure process.
For a total of 6.30 million loans delinquent or in foreclosure in October.
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LPS: Mortgages In Foreclosure Process at an All-Time High
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/lps-mortgages-in-foreclosure-process-at.html
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Unemployment: Initial, Continued and Extended Claims Dec 1 + increase to 402,000

[mEDITate-OR:
think that going up three weeks in a row...
does not mean that we are going down.
Well, it does.
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comments incoming
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Extended Unemployment:
Initial, Continued and Extended Unemployment Claims December 01, 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/12/extended-unemployment-initial-continued.html
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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 402,000
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims.html
========

ISM Manufacturing Report on Business: Nov = indicates slightly faster expansion in November

[mEDITate-OR:
see that all this Good News is barely that...
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Comment incoming
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ISM Manufacturing Report on Business: November 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/12/ism-manufacturing-report-on-business.html
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ISM Manufacturing index indicates slightly faster expansion in November
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/ism-manufacturing-index-indicates.html
=======

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

BRICs = Bloody Ridiculous Investment Concepts

[mEDITate-OR:
be both right and very funny
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BRICs = Bloody Ridiculous Investment Concepts
========

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

BANK OF AMERICA - NEW LOW = stock nearing $5 danger zone + 37 financial institutions downgraded by S&P

[mEDITate-OR:
not see the hand writing on the Wall..., Street Banksters obit..

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Since the acquisitions of Countrywide by BKofA, WAMU by Chase, and Wichovia by Wells, these Big Bad Banks have been bailed out with Trillions of US dollars.While they paid themselves huge salaries and bonuses, it was not enough.

And, unlike China, we did not demand that they loan the GD money back out to U.S.
As the Pretty Woman said:  "Mistake! Big mistake!!"

They also are the largest RE mortgage "originators", "servicer" and foreclosers.

We have been arguing that, much like the land line phone companies, they were "technically" bankrupt.

The problem is not that they will fail, they have already done that. It is that they are about to take U.S. with them.

They are no longer "originating" the number or the quality of RE mortgages that this country MUST have in order to generate the jobs that WE MUST have.

They also have not purged themselves of all of the bad ARMs and subprimes that their bought mortgage cos created, they have not foreclosed on all of them, and they are now discounting the REO sales prices by about US$ 20,000 per home in AZ.

They are paying cash to sell to all cash buyers to raise "cash".

---
That is the Bad News.
The Really Bad News is that the small, community banks, SnLs and CUs that made local construction and commercial loans are in even worse shape
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BANK OF AMERICA - NEW LOW
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BANK OF AMERICA - NEW LOW
= stock nearing $5 danger zone
http://money.cnn.com/2011/11/29/markets/bofa_stock/index.htm?iid=Lead
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S&P downgrades dozens of banks
37 financial institutions downgraded by S&P
http://money.cnn.com/2011/11/29/news/companies/bank_ratings_downgrades_sandp/index.htm?iid=EL
========

Philly Fed says, now, that State Coincident Indexes increase in October

[mEDITate-OR:
not remember what "They" were telling U.S. a short time ago...
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But, of course, we have no reason to not believe them.
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This was "then"...
back when we thought we were in Hell...
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this was earlier this year...
when we assumed that all pastures were now green...
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-----------
this is right now...
when the ?asktards are telling U.S. that tis the times of milk and honey.
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Philly Fed State Coincident Indexes increase in October
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/philly-fed-state-coincident-indexes.html
=======

Monday, November 28, 2011

Chart of the Day: Did Barney Frank Cause the Housing Crisis? + Hispanic households grow, accounting for more than half of new homeowners

[mEDITate-OR:
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JGBellHimself

Said you:
"Did they play a bigger role in the sub-prime binge than the private sector? That's a harder case to make. A study by the Federal Reserve found that in 2006, five out of six of sub-prime mortgages were issued by private lenders."

Observed we: That is VERY sloppy reporting.

To not ask the most relevant question:
"WHO made the bad ARMS and subprime RE loans, and WHEN did they make them?"
is inexcusable - economically, ethically, legally and as a "reporter" of the news.

While Dan's chart was "interesting", it was also very badly misleading - accidentally or intentionally.

What you and U.S. need to know is that when the non-agency "securitized" RE loans began in ought-not-3 they were almost ALL "conventional" loans. It was not until they really ought-not-4, 5, 6 and unlucky 7 that they switched to almost ALL very bad subprime and ARMs.

True, it was inexcusably stupid for the GSE's to begin to buy bad ARMs and subprimes in we-ought-not-too-6, but by then the "securitizers" had create US$ 2.5 Trillion very bad ARMS and subprime RE loans in the sand states of Cal, Nev, Fla and AZ.  Over 85% of those very bad RE loans are now in or through foreclosure, strategic default, bankruptcy.

That means there have been over US$ two (2) TRILLION in written off RE mortgages - created by the non-agency Wall Street Banksters in less than 4 years.

So, show U.S. - if you can - that the agencies ever issued that amount of bad ARMS and subprime RE loan; OR have cause U.S. to loss a similar US$ two (2) Trillion in RE losses.

Said you: "That's a harder case to make."
Said we: Tis an impossible case to make; and you did not even (try? to) come close.
Asked we: Either put up the evidence, or STFUp.
--------------
JGBellHimself

And do NOT give U.S. any of that FMae&FMac post hoc ergo propter hoc BS, either.

Today, one half of all property in Phoenix is appraised/worth on average over 62% less than at the peak in ought-it-not-ever-end. And, in the last year it has dropped another 10% and probably will drop another 10% in the next year.

That result WAS caused by the Wall Street Banksters' bad RE loans issued by Countrywide, WAMU, and others, in AZ.

What that also means is that every other buyer - & all conventional RE loans - have also been driven underwater by more than 50% - in a desert. And, that everyone else that did NOT buy, or borrow, has seen their property values also destroyed.

Only a GD fool would even try to argue that THIS mess in AZ was caused by FMae&FMac.
(And/or in Cal, Nev & Fla.)

And, only a GD fool would suggest that the other current RE losses by everyone else - all cash buyers, conventional borrowers from small banks, CUs, SnLs, and FMae&FMac - was caused in any way by any one other than the Big Bad Wall Street Banksters.

None are so blind as those who will not or cannot see.
As with Dan, you either do, or you do not.
Disirregardless, show U.S. your "hand", bcuz we call.
-------------
JGBellHimself

While there is more than enough evidence that William Jefferson, et al - along with Barney - did push expanding RE loan access for minorities, aka The Blacks; and they need to accept full responsibility for when that worked and when it did not.

YOU, need to - at least try to - remember that W also decided that pushing for expanded RE loans for Hispanics - both legal and illegals - would solidify his support in the Hispanic communities - Cuban in Fla and Mexican in Tex, Az and Cal.

Oh, and do you not also remember that W & almost ALL Congressional Republicans sponsored and voted for "W's Legal Immigration Reform".

Do you see NO correlation between the push for Hispanic voters and home owners that occurred in the precisely same states as Countrywide, WAMU, Wichovia, New Century and others were pushing the very bad ARMs and subprimes in, of ALL places - Cal, Nev, Fla, and AZ ???

Of COURSE, it would me unfair for any of U.S. to blame W and the R's for any of the results of those two policies.

So, we will not falsely accuse W and the Rs...
if you will stop falsely accusing po' ol' Barney and Bill.

Gawd (his) only knows what good ol'  Sam will, finally, decide to do or not do.
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JGBellHimself
And here are two very interesting factoid for the rest of U.S.:

"...Hispanics with credit scores higher than 660 received subprime and option adjustable-rate mortgages THREE TIMES AS OFTEN as white borrowers in similar financial standing between 2004 and 2008..."
AND
Hispanic households grow, accounting for more than half of new homeowners

So, maybe they were not the bad credit risks that they were forced to pay for, and maybe W was economically right, while being politically wrong.
==========
Graph_GSEs_Indiviglio.jpg
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Chart of the Day: Did Barney Frank Cause the Housing Crisis?
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/11/chart-of-the-day-did-barney-frank-cause-the-housing-crisis/249167/
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Hispanic households grow, accounting for more than half of new homeowners
http://www.housingwire.com/2011/11/28/hispanic-households-grow-accounting-for-more-than-half-of-new-homeowners
==========

By STATE analysis of "These Big Clear Charts Show How Americans Are Still Up To Their Neck In Debt"

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that all the little pigs are equal...
or equally in debt
or have changed - a lot and like everyone else
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Let U.S. start with the assumption that AZ is almost at the bottom of the collapse.
and then compare the debt numbers, for Az and for the rest of the worst of U.S.
"incoming"
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By STATE analysis of:
"These Big Clear Charts Show How Americans Are Still Up To Their Neck In Debt"
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These Big Clear Charts Show How Americans Are Still Up To Their Neck In Debt

[mEDITate-OR:
not see what CR found for U.S.
but did not have the room to show U.S.
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And, whey U need to see these
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Some thinks that scream out @ U.S.
"Incoming"
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chart
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These Big Clear Charts
Show How Americans Are Still Up To Their Neck In Debt
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A comparison of two very different, but very good "views" of the new home sales data

[mEDITate-OR:
ignore both the existence, and the economic value of these two reports.
----------
Below, we post a few main media articles and charts.
Then the works of Steven @ to go behind the numbers and show U.S. some very new and different views of them.
And, then Bill@CR's three very different, but also very significant views.
=========
But, first, a comparison:
"incoming"
=========

PE = New Home Sales: Oct + More Pain, Less Gain: S&P/Case-Shiller Preview for September 2011 + Sales of new US homes up 1.3 pct. in October - but median sales price hits 2011 low

[mEDITate-OR:
not see the "skinny story" about new home sales...
before you get to see the iceberg below the surface.
---------
these very different new stories try to give U.S. a different take on the basic numbers.
they do, but...
there is more to their and this story
- incoming
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STAGNANT SALES:
New-home sales rose slightly in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 307,000, the Commerce Department said Monday. That’s less than half the 700,000 that economists say must be sold to sustain a healthy housing market.
WORST YEAR EVER?:
This year’s pace is trailing last year’s 323,000 homes sold, which were the fewest since the government began keeping records in 1963.
TROUBLING SIGNS:
The median sales price fell to its lowest level of the year, and the number of new homes for sale in the United States fell to a record low.
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PE =
New Home Sales: Oct
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/11/new-home-sales-october-2011.html
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More Pain, Less Gain: S&P/Case-Shiller Preview for September 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/11/more-pain-less-gain-s-preview-for.html
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Sales of new US homes up 1.3 pct. in October 
- but median sales price hits 2011 low
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/summary-box-sales-of-new-us-homes-up-13-pct-in-october-but-median-sales-price-hits-2011-low/2011/11/28/gIQAJknh5N_story.html
=========

New Home Sales Improvement Continues in Oct + New Home Prices Facing Growing Pressure

[mEDITate-OR:
JGBHimself says:
28 November 2011 at 11:36 pm
Exceptionally well done, Steven.
We trust that you will see both of Bill’s posts @ CR today. While each of you look at these numbers very differently, combined you provide a rather significant economic view.
Your “normalized for population growth” chart was an “unpleasant” surprise. But, like Bill’s Distressing Gap chart it needs to be seen, and fully understood. Nice one.
However, we do note that you are neither being a Scrooge like extreme pessimist – on the one hand; nor a milk N honey Christmas “Present” (pl) optimist – on the other.
Maybe you should make up your mind:)
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Above this post is the comparison of this and the next one.
However, since each of these two are SO very different views of the same data
we feel that it is necessary to separately comment on each.
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Incoming.
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New Home Sales Improvement Continues in Oct 
http://econintersect.com/wordpress/?p=16174
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New Home Prices Facing Growing Pressure
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45464950
==============