Existing Home Sales Continue to Drop

[mEDITate-OR:
notice that Calculated Risk is not the only source for very good charts.

Below are some snarky "alternative" charts.
Well, the charts might not BE snarky...
but he is, by his own admission.
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“Sold At TheTop” is the snarky pseudonym for the organic blogger that maintains the reasonably popular and, dare I say, possibly even slightly influential web log PaperEconomy (www.papereconomy.com).
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As with CR, go to the site for the LARGE charts.
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Existing Home Sales Continue to Drop
http://seekingalpha.com/article/238383-existing-home-sales-continue-to-drop?source=dashboard_macro-view
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October Existing Home Sales: 4.43 million SAAR, 10.5 months of supply + Existing Home Inventory increases 8.4% Year-over-Year

[mEDITate-OR:
think that a double dip is swimming with a new lover...
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Said NAR:
Existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, declined 2.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.43 million in October from 4.53 million in September, and are 25.9 percent below the 5.98 million-unit level in October 2009 when sales were surging prior to the initial deadline for the first-time buyer tax credit.
Total housing inventory at the end of October fell 3.4 percent to 3.86 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 10.5-month supply4 at the current sales pace, down from a 10.6-month supply in September.
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Said Jim@CR:
Months of supply decreased to 10.5 months in October from 10.6 months in September. This is extremely high and suggests prices, as measured by the repeat sales indexes like Case-Shiller and CoreLogic, will continue to decline.
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The 1st graph is unique to CR and shows U.S. exactly how bad this really is, compared to the prior  five (5) years. Ugly.
The 2nd chart shows U.S. that while many are taking their home back off the market, the months supply of homes for sale is exceedingly high.
Worse than ugly.
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October Existing Home Sales: 4.43 million SAAR, 10.5 months of supply
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/11/october-existing-home-sales-443-million.html
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Existing Home Inventory increases 8.4% Year-over-Year
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/11/existing-home-inventory-increases-84.html
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The trouble with 'global imbalances'

[mEDITate-OR:
swallow this, whole line and sinker...

Germany had run a trade surplus for years, as had Japan. But, not U.S.

We run a multi-billion US$ deficit with Mexico, Canada, Venezuela and Sudan each month.

Christmas toys & clothing from China for U.S. is bad; expensive crude oil from Chavez for your hummers, pickups & Lincolns is Good.

How odd is that.
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The trouble with 'global imbalances'
http://money.cnn.com/2010/11/23/news/international/global_trade_imblances_rebalancing/index.htm
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FDIC's Bair rebukes bankers = Profit-minded bankers risk undermining the financial system's modest recovery + Bank earnings skyrocket in 3Q as FDIC problem list nears 17-year high

[mEDITate-OR:
pretend that you don't really need the loan loss reserves...
that you know you will need to "cover" up your mistakes.

But, where IS your/the money better spent...
obviously, on MY salary and bonuses NOW...!!!
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FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 19, 2010
Unofficial Problem Bank list increases to 903 Institutions
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/11/unofficial-problem-bank-list-increases_19.html
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The FDIC released the Q3 Quarterly Bank report today.
Net income for the 7,760 insured commercial banks and savings institutions reporting quarterly financial results totaled $14.5 billion, a considerable improvement over the $2 billion reported a year ago. Third quarter net income was below the $17.7 billion and $21.4 billion reported in the first and second quarters of this year, respectively, but the shortfall was attributable to a $10.1 billion quarterly net loss at one large institution that had a $10.4 billion charge for goodwill impairment. Absent this loss, third quarter earnings would have represented a three-year high. Almost two out of every three institutions (63.3 percent) reported higher net income than a year earlier, and fewer than one in five (18.9 percent) was unprofitable. This is the lowest percentage of unprofitable institutions since second quarter 2008. A year ago, more than 27 percent of all institutions reported negative net income.
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FDIC's Bair rebukes bankers
Profit-minded bankers risk undermining the financial system's modest recovery
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2010/11/23/fdics-bair-rebukes-bankers/
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Unofficial Problem Bank list increases to 903 Institutions
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/11/unofficial-problem-bank-list-increases_19.html
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Bank earnings skyrocket in 3Q
as FDIC problem list nears 17-year high
http://www.housingwire.com/2010/11/23/bank-earnings-rose-in-3q-as-fdic-problem-list-nears-17-year-high
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Why the housing bulls are wrong = four reasons by housing is still not a good investment.

[mEDITate-OR:
not corral your thoughts around The Truth...

The 1st chart shows U.S. that home formation has been declining, even in spite of the housing bubble. And, has collapsed off the charts now.

The 2nd chart shows U.S. that the supply of homes waiting to be re-sold is increasing dramatically. And, as they point out this chart does not include the "shadow inventory".

Today, CoreLogic - in the article below, tells U.S. that the "shadow inventory" is now over 8 months supply. THAT is on top of this graphs numbers.
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In the 2nd articles 3 graph we are told this:
household net worth has plunged by $12 trillion since the bubbly days of 2007.
That's decline almost 10 times as large as the net worth increase spurred by this fall's QE2-inspired stock market rally
So, if you don't quite feel as well off as you thought you were
you are too far right.

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Why the housing bulls are wrong
four reasons by housing is still not a good investment.
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2010/11/22/why-the-housing-bulls-are-wrong/
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Americans less profligate than feared
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2010/11/22/americans-less-profligate-than-feared/
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CL Report: 8 months of 'shadow inventory' = REOs could weigh on price appreciation, exacerbate declines + Shadow Housing Inventory Jumps To 2.1 Million, Pushing Total Supply Back To Crisis Levels

[mEDITate-OR:

panic, one more time...

This is what Jim @ CR tells U.S.:

The total visible and shadow inventory was 6.3 million units in August, up from 6.1 million a year ago. The total months’ supply of unsold homes was 23 months in August, up from 17 months a year ago. Although it can vary and it depends on the market and real estate cycle, typically a reading of six to seven months is considered normal so the current total months’ supply is roughly three times the normal rate.

And this explanation from Jim@CR is a much better view about what the "shadow inventory" really is:

The term "shadow inventory" is used in many different ways. My definition is: housing units that are not currently listed on the market, but will probably be listed soon. This includes:

1. REOs, foreclosures in process and some percentage of seriously delinquent loans. This is the number CoreLogic is estimating.

2. Unlisted new high rise condos. This also includes high rise condos that were converted to rental units with the intention of eventually selling the units. Note: these properties are not included in the new home inventory report and are not included in the CoreLogic report. These is no data for the number of units nationwide, and these have to be counted on a city by city basis (Las Vegas and Miami have many of these units).

3. Homeowners waiting for a better market. This includes the "accidental landlords" who rented their properties and who will try to sell as soon as the market improves after the current tenant's lease expires.

Although the CoreLogic report is useful in estimating future supply, I think it is the visible supply that impacts prices.

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CL Report: 8 months of 'shadow inventory'
REOs could weigh on price appreciation, exacerbate declines
http://www.inman.com/news/2010/11/22/report-8-months-shadow-inventory
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Shadow Housing Inventory Jumps To 2.1 Million
Pushing Total Supply Back To Crisis Levels
http://www.businessinsider.com/corelogic-shadow-inventory-2010-11
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CoreLogic: Shadow Housing Inventory
pushes total unsold inventory to 6.3 million units
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/11/corelogic-shadow-housing-inventory.html
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Another hit to states: Interest payments to Uncle Sam

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Another hit to states: Interest payments to Uncle Sam
http://money.cnn.com/2010/11/22/news/economy/Unemployment_benefits_state_loans/index.htm?eref=mrss_igoogle_business
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Jobless benefits cost so far: $319 billion
http://money.cnn.com/2010/11/17/news/economy/unemployment_benefits_cost/index.htm
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Credit Suisse lists mortgage servicers with highest Ginnie Mae delinquencies + Bank of America accounts for nearly half of HAMP backlogby

[mEDITate-OR:

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Credit Suisse lists mortgage servicers with highest Ginnie Mae delinquencies
http://www.housingwire.com/2010/11/19/credit-suisse-lists-mortgage-servicers-with-highest-ginnie-mae-delinquencies
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Bank of America accounts for nearly half of HAMP backlog
http://www.housingwire.com/2010/11/18/bank-of-america-accounts-for-nearly-half-of-hamp-backlog
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Negative Home Equity

[mEDITate-OR:

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Mortgage applications rose 5.8% last week = Gain in Purchases

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Mortgage applications rose 5.8% last week = Gain in Purchases
http://www.housingwire.com/2010/11/10/mortgage-applications-rose-5-8-last-week
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Mortgage Applications in U.S. Increase on Gain in Purchases
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-10/mortgage-applications-in-u-s-increase-for-third-week-on-gain-in-purchases.html
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BLS Stats: Job Openings Appear to Be Defining a Bottom + Beveridge Curve Balancing Act: September 2010

[mEDITate-OR:
comment later
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BLS Stats: Job Openings Appear to Be Defining a Bottom
http://seekingalpha.com/article/235946-bls-stats-job-openings-appear-to-be-defining-a-bottom
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Beveridge Curve Balancing Act: September 2010
http://www.favstocks.com/beveridge-curve-balancing-act-september-2010/0927756/
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Five Jobless Workers Per Opening in September

[mEDITate-OR:
not know or see or care...
how bad it really is out there

The 1st chart is from CR and shows us how dynamic it is out there
While layoff & quits are amost equal to new hires, that will not bring down UI claims

What MsC at Economix shows U.S. is
first how bad it is for those looking for a new job
and
second, WHERE the jobs are to be found.
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Five Jobless Workers Per Opening in September
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/09/five-jobless-workers-per-opening-in-september/#more-88433
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Commitment to Development

[mEDITate-OR:
not wonder why tis the most wealthy per capita countries...
that contribute the most to assist others.

Tis the Scandahouvians that do the most...
and New Zealand & Australia???

Even Canada, the UK, Germany, Ireland & Portugal do more than U.S.
and Ireland & Portugal are flat broke.
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Commitment to Development
http://www.cgdev.org/section/initiatives/_active/cdi/
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China's Trade Surplus Jumps Ahead of G-20 Leaders' Summit

[mEDITate-OR:
yell at them, for no good reason
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China's Trade Surplus Jumps Ahead of G-20 Leaders' Summit
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-10/china-trade-surplus-swells-more-than-forecast-to-27-billion-on-g-20-eve.html
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US monthly trade deficit fell in September 2010

[mEDITate-OR:
not see what happened to U.S. prior to the G-20 summit.

Once again, one of the best articles on this issue
with a very good chart
is from FinFacts in Irelands.
Go figure.
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US monthly trade deficit fell in September 2010
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1020992.shtml
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