Housing starts fell 10.6% in April + Housing Starts and Permits Show Construction Sagging

[mEDITate-OR:
believe that the number is accurate...
without distinguishing single homes from multi-unit apartments.
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First, The Charts:
the 1st two are simple charts by Daniel@Atlantic.
they show U.S. his point - we are wallowing
the 2nd two are from Sold@PaperEconomy
they also show U.S. permits & starts
but with a lot more detail & info
The last is from FinFact in Ireland
but, unlike Daniel & Sold they also separate one units from more
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Next the conflict that they all ignore.
What everyone must know by now, apartments are extremely volatile.
Including them WITH singe unit starts is VERY misleading.
For example, with foreclosures still running high, there are huge numbers of vacant home, and REOs for sale.
Apartments however are seeing very low vacancy rates, and much higher rents.
Therefore, a reduction in new homes makes sense.
As would a huge increase in apartment & condo construction.
BUT, and it is a very large but, there is very little financing available for that.
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Finally, the industry reports:
Both the HousingWire and the newly re-titled Worldpropertychannel
use the same heading to report the same Census report info
But, the HW does not separate out "apartments", at all.
WPC does, but fails to tell U.S. how much that changed.
Given the volatility that both know exists, this is misleading reporting.
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Post-script:
The only news report that we have found anywhere that consistently separates and accurately reports multi-unit construction is Bloomberg.
This is what THEY tell U.S.:
Work on multifamily homes, such as townhouses and apartments, fell 24 percent to an annual rate of 129,000, the weakest so far this year.
and
Starts dropped by a 23 percent decrease in the South, the largest area.
All of the weakness in starts was due to the plunge in the South, reflecting flooding on the Mississippi River that continued into May
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We should NOT have to hunt down this vital piece of information.
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Housing starts fell 10.6% in April
Same title, different source and article:
http://www.housingwire.com/2011/05/17/housing-starts-fell-10-6-in-april
version 2
http://www.worldpropertychannel.com/us-markets/residential-real-estate-1/new-home-construction-us-census-bureau-department-of-housing-and-urban-development-hud-new-housing-starts-homes-for-sale-building-permits-4302.php
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Housing Starts and Permits Show Construction Sagging
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/05/housing-starts-and-permits-show-construction-sagging/239000/
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New Residential Construction Report: April 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/05/new-residential-construction-report.html
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US home construction fell in April
US manufacturing production dipped due to Japan's earthquake supply Disruption
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1022317.shtml
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Housing Starts in U.S. Unexpectedly Decline
on Southern Floods, Tornadoes
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-17/u-s-housing-starts-unexpectedly-declined-in-april-to-523-000-annual-pace.html
==========

The Weekly summaries: The A List = Calculated Risk & The Paper Economy; The B List = BLS-TED and MarketWatch - This Week in Charts

[mEDITate-OR:
not know about The Weekly summaries...
----------
If you do not "follow the lead of" Calculated Risk you probably do not know that at the end of each week, Bill provides two Summaries - what significant happened last week, and what significant will happen this week.
This is The Classic Debate Method = Tell them what you are gonna tell them - tell them - and then tell them what they should remember about what you have told them.
--------
Sold on the Top doesn't do that - he merely provides wonderful charts, and decent explanations.
--------
MarketWatch and BLS-TED are two very good but very different week sets of charts.
MW is a weekly Summary, TED is not.
MW also provides a quick link to the main WSJ articles about each chart.
--------
Daniel and Colin are "analysts"
while their charts are good, and Daniel's are generally better...
tis there analysis of their charts that is outstanding.
-------
Each of these very valuable resources are weekly must reads.
FYI
Enjoy.
=====     The A List:
Summary for Week Ending May 13th
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/summary-for-week-ending-may-13th.html
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Schedule for Week of May 15th
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/schedule-for-week-of-may-15th.html
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The Paper Economy
= A US real estate bubble blog
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/
=======     The B List
THE WEEK IN CHARTS May 13:
Rising Prices; Food at home; Four-week jobless claims average; Job openings rise
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/in-charts-inflation-and-inflation-expectations-2011-05-13?link=mw_story_kiosk
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BLS-TED:
Job openings and rate; Import and export prices increase; Productivity 1stQ;Unemployment rate at 9.0 percent; Employment changes by industry
http://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/archive.htm#may11
==========    THE Analysts:
Daniel Indiviglio 
is an associate editor at The Atlantic, where he writes about credit markets, regulation, monetary & fiscal policy, taxes, banking, trade, emerging markets and technology.
http://www.theatlantic.com/daniel-indiviglio
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Street Sweep by Colin Barr
Following the money in banking, economics and Washington
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/category/street-sweep/?iid=H_F_QL
==========

Weekly Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Jump To 8-Month High = surged by 43000 to 474000 last week + previous week's revised figure of 431,000 - from the 429,000 originally reported + Economists had expected claims would drop to 410,000

[mEDITate-OR:
think everything is getting better every day...
------------
Three very different views of the same data
1st is the basic new claims data.
2nd is the 4 week moving average from CR
3rd is on that shows both.
----------
Disirregarless, even...
this weeks report is simply ugly.
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Weekly Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Jump To 8-Month High
http://www.rttnews.com/ArticleView.aspx?Id=1615995
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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims sharply higher
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims.html
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How Washington F@#$%! the budget = Since 2001, lawmakers time and again have cut taxes or increased spending without finding ways to pay for their decisions. Both parties share the blame.

[mEDITate-OR:
see a Trillion here and a Trillion there...
and wonder when it will become real money...
--------
Tis not that often that CNN gets it right anymore
but this time they nailed it...
and YOUR political party to the walls of Congress.
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How Washington F@#$%! the budget

Since 2001, lawmakers time and again have cut taxes

or increased spending without finding ways to pay for their decisions.

Both parties share the blame.

http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2011/news/economy/1104/gallery.budget_spending/index.html

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Bush tax cuts: 2001, 2003 and 2006
an initial 10-year cost estimate of $1.35 trillion
The cost of the latest two-year extension? $544.3 billion
That's the first 0f W's US$ 2 Trillions
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War funding: 2001 to present

In order to fund wars in Iraq and Afghanistan

Presidents Bush and Obama have spent more than $1 trillion on direct costs alone.

On top of that, annual defense spending has just about doubled since 2001

rising to almost $700 billion in 2010.

Military spending now accounts for more 20% of the entire federal budget
That's another US 1 Trillion

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Medicare drug benefit: 2003
Originally estimated to cost $395 billion over 10 years
estimated that Medicare Part D will cost about $1 trillion dollars over the next 10 years
That's another of W's US$ 1 Trillions
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Bush stimulus: 2008
a $168 billion stimulus package
The tax cuts and other incentives -- totaling around 1% of GDP -- weren't paid for.
W's stimulus and TARP below are another US$ 1 Trillion.
----------------
TARP bailouts: 2008
spend up to $700 billion to help stabilize financial markets.
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American Recovery Act: 2009
cost revised to $862 billion.
Not to be out done Obama cost U.S. another Trillion
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The Republican-Obama tax package: 2010
projected to cost $858 billion over ten years.
Your newly elected Republican House demanded this one.
and Obama gave it to them and U.S. = another US$ Trillion
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Debt at the breaking point
Today, the national debt stands at more than $14 trillion
=========

Jobless claims down 23,000 to 403,000 filings last week - Less Than Expected

[mEDITate-OR:
wonder why last weeks numbers were revised up
making this weeks numbers look larger.
----------
Note that the 2nd article is another of Zacks very good and thorough analysis of these new numbers.
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Unemployment claims drop by 13,000 from last week
Unemployment claims continue on a significant declining trend, with initial and continued claims declining. In all, about 4 million people are receiving unemployment benefits.
http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Paper-Economy/2011/0421/Unemployment-claims-drop-by-13-000-from-last-week
=============
Initial Claims Fall Less Than Expected
http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/51715/Initial+Claims+Fall+Less+Than+Expected?adid=
===============

Mortgage Rates Fall; 30-Year Fixed at 4.8% + But rates below 5% have done little to help a struggling housing market

[mEDITate-OR:
wonder why we all don't refi at these wonderfully low rates...
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Rate on 30-year fixed mortgage falls to 4.80%
But rates below 5% have done little to help a struggling housing market
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38770102/ns/business-eye_on_the_economy/
==============

Just How Stupid Are We? + Taxes reach historic low

[mEDITate-OR:
Not notice that:
"A funny thing happened on the way to the TEA Party anti-tax rallies across the country. "
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Just How Stupid Are We?
http://obrag.org/?p=36568
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Taxes reach historic low
http://www.ocregister.com/news/-117079-ocprint--.html
==============

The Infinite Insanity of the Debt Ceiling

[mEDITate-OR:
say what Max did to Agent 99
"But, we told you not to tell U.S.!!!"
------------
Do NOT tell U.S. what is true...
only what "The People" think is true...
- that is the only reality.
-----------

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The Infinite Insanity of the Debt Ceiling
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/04/the-infinite-insanity-of-the-debt-ceiling/237682/
========

Stingy megabanks swimming in cash - If the megabanks are so big on lending, why do their loan books keep shrinking? = Quarterly mortgage originations down one-third at big four banks

[mEDITate-OR:
sink or swim..., all alone...
surrounded by sharks.
----------
These are two interesting similar articles.
What they are telling U.S. is that the Big Bad Banksters took W's money and hid it under their books.
They are not making small business loans, they are not making home loans, they are not expanding anyone's line of credit and they are not even doing what they say to U.S. that they are doing.
-------------

============
Quarterly mortgage originations down one-third at big four banks
http://www.housingwire.com/2011/04/21/quarterly-mortgage-originations-down-one-third-at-big-four-banks
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Stingy megabanks swimming in cash
If the megabanks are so big on lending, why do their loan books keep shrinking?
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/04/21/stingy-megabanks-swimming-in-cash/
===========

Dollar Plunges as US Rate Outlook Spurs Bid for Yield + Oil rallies $3 a barrel = above $124 on weak dollar, U.S. stockpile drop + Crude Oil Advances a Third Day on Improving Outlook for Global Fuel Demand

[mEDITate-OR:
find crude what is happening to your vacation plans...
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there is an almost perfect negative correlation between the falling dollar and oil prices

—minus-0.9 to be exact.

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The euro hit a 15-month high above $1.45

the Canadian and Australian dollars to multi-year peaks. 

hitting two-year lows against the Brazilian real and Mexican peso.

China also allowed the yuan to touch a record high =

up 1 percent against the dollar this year and 4.5 percent since mid-2010

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Dollar Plunges as US Rate Outlook Spurs Bid for Yield
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/21/us-markets-oil-idUSTRE72D01W20110421
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$6 gas? Could happen if dollar keeps getting weaker.
Under the right conditions, gas could cost as much as $6 per gallon by the summertime
http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Latest-News-Wires/2011/0420/6-gas-Could-happen-if-dollar-keeps-getting-weaker
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Crude Oil Advances a Third Day on Improving Outlook for Global Fuel Demand
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-20/crude-oil-trades-near-an-eight-day-high-after-equities-rise-dollar-falls.html
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Brent rises above $124 on weak dollar, U.S. stockpile drop
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/21/us-markets-oil-idUSTRE72D01W20110421
============

Dollar hits 15-month low against euro = Flight from U.S. dollar + Dollar Getting Hammered, Aussie and Canadian Buck Jumping

[mEDITate-OR:
not see that you might want to stay down on the farm...
bucz you cain't afford to go see Paris...
----------

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Dollar hits 15-month low against euro
http://money.cnn.com/2011/04/20/markets/dollar_euro/index.htm?eref=mrss_igoogle_business
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Flight from U.S. dollar
http://business.financialpost.com/2011/04/20/flight-from-u-s-dollar/
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Dollar Getting Hammered, Aussie and Canadian Buck Jumping
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/04/20/dollar-getting-hammered-aussie-and-canadian-buck-jumping/
============

CPI: Core Inflation remained subdued in March, despite a 0.5% rise in headline rate = Energy Drives Prices Higher In March

[mEDITate-OR:

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Core Inflation remained subdued in March
despite a 0.5% rise in headline rate
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1022104.shtml
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Energy Drives Prices Higher In March
But Core Inflation Contained
http://www.rttnews.com/Content/AllEconomicNews.aspx?Node=B2&Id=1598977
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Consumer Price Index rises again in March
http://news.medill.northwestern.edu/chicago/news.aspx?id=184974
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CPI Inflation Report And A 25-Year Perspective
http://www.dailymarkets.com/economy/2011/04/15/cpi-inflation-report-and-a-25-year-perspective/
=========

PPI: March wholesale price increases ease, but no long-term reprieve in sight + Rise Less Than Expected Amid Lower Food Costs

[mEDITate-OR:
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U.S. Producer Prices Rise Less Than Expected Amid Lower Food Costs
http://www.rttnews.com/Content/USEconomicNews.aspx?Id=1598138&SM=1
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March wholesale price increases ease, but no long-term reprieve in sight
http://news.medill.northwestern.edu/chicago/news.aspx?id=184895
============

Conspicuous Correlation: Retail Sales March 2011

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that what they tell U.S. you see is what you should see...
---------------
In the post below, you will see the usual "retail sales" type of reports, amplified by some of the better analyses. What Sold on Top provided U.S. this month is a stunning new, very different view.
And, Sold's exceptional explanations.
--------
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Discretionary retail sales including home furnishings, home garden and building materials, consumer electronics and department store sales increased a notable 1.51% from February climbing 1.98% above the level seen in March 2010 while, adjusting for inflation, “real” discretionary retail sales actually declined 0.71% over the same period.

On a “nominal” basis, there had appeared to be “rough correlation” between strong home value appreciation and strong retail spending preceding the housing bust and an even stronger correlation when home values started to decline.
------------
The following chart shows the year-over-year change to nominal discretionary retail sales and the year-over-year change to nominal the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite home price index since 1993 and since 2000.

As you can see there is, at the very least, a coincidental change to home values and consumer spending during the boom and then the bust, but as home values have continued to decline, retail spending has remained low but has not continued to consistently contract.

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the “rough correlation” between the year-over-year change to the “discretionary” retail sales series and the year-over-year S&P/Case-Shiller Composite series seems now even more significant.

===========
Conspicuous Correlation: Retail Sales March 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/04/conspicuous-correlation-retail-sales.html
==============

Retail Sales in Mar - Gasoline and Food Drive Up + Conspicuous Correlation: Retail Sales March 2011

[mEDITate-OR:
confuse apples with oranges...
and all retail sales with some retail sales...
---------
What almost all media reports do not do is separate fuel from other retail sales. However, as you will see below both Danial@Atlantic and Bill@CR do that for U.S.
What Daniel and oddly FinnFacts also do is provide U.S. with sector data.
This is important.
Notice the HUGE change in "auto sales" in the chart and the 4th chart.
Not only are auto sales up, a lot, since last year...
but they dropped like a rock last month.
Due to the price of gas, do you think?
------
In the post below, you will also see that most of the increase in consumer credit use is based upon "auto and truck sales".
So, while it WAS driving the economy - no pun intended...
it might have just stopped, @ the light behind the sign for your gas prices.
Where are we really heading..., and how are we going to get there
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Retail Sales in Mar - Gasoline and Food Drive Up
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/04/gasoline-and-food-drive-up-retail-sales-in-march/237242/
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US retail sales increased of 0.4% in March
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1022077.shtml
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Retail Sales increased 0.4% in March
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/04/retail-sales-increased-04-in-march.html
=========