assume that what they tell U.S. you see is what you should see...
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In the post below, you will see the usual "retail sales" type of reports, amplified by some of the better analyses. What Sold on Top provided U.S. this month is a stunning new, very different view.
And, Sold's exceptional explanations.
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Discretionary retail sales including home furnishings, home garden and building materials, consumer electronics and department store sales increased a notable 1.51% from February climbing 1.98% above the level seen in March 2010 while, adjusting for inflation, “real” discretionary retail sales actually declined 0.71% over the same period.
On a “nominal” basis, there had appeared to be “rough correlation” between strong home value appreciation and strong retail spending preceding the housing bust and an even stronger correlation when home values started to decline.
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The following chart shows the year-over-year change to nominal discretionary retail sales and the year-over-year change to nominal the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite home price index since 1993 and since 2000.
As you can see there is, at the very least, a coincidental change to home values and consumer spending during the boom and then the bust, but as home values have continued to decline, retail spending has remained low but has not continued to consistently contract.
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the “rough correlation” between the year-over-year change to the “discretionary” retail sales series and the year-over-year S&P/Case-Shiller Composite series seems now even more significant.
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Conspicuous Correlation: Retail Sales March 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.
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