Happy New Year!

[mEDITate-OR:
not believe that the only things that got better N better
day after day, all year long...
and will throughout the next year...
are the charts from Bill @ Calculated Risk
 
 
 

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Happy New Year!
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/happy-new-year.html
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Hotels: Occupancy Rate back to pre-recession levels + Restaurant Performance Index increased in November

[mEDITate-OR:

not see that we need "services" to expand and/or recover

especially if housing and construction will not.

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while medical services has, is and will expand...

that is NOT good news.

bcuz it means that Federal & State and U.S. are paying more for medical care

and the off -line Medicare N Medicaid debt is growing

while we cut the taxes to pay for them.

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This months news that Hotels and Restaurants are recovering, if not back to normal

is VERY good news for the economy.

 

 

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As your latest, greatest lover oft said to you:

"Don't stop now."

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Hotels have seen a solid finish to 2011. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is back to normal.

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Restaurant spending is discretionary and is impacted by the overall economy.

This index showed contraction in July and August

but is now positive again.

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Hotels: Occupancy Rate back to pre-recession levels
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/hotels-occupancy-rate-back-to-pre.html
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Restaurant Performance Index increased in November
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/restaurant-performance-index-increased.html
========

Fannie Mae Delinquencies: November 2011 + Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Serious Delinquency Rates: Slight increase for Freddie in November

[mEDITate-OR:

not find delinquencies not declining to be somewhat funny good news.

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As Bill@CR reports, by not declining, that does NOT mean that they are becoming current...

only that they are being very slowly "foreclosed" upon.

IF they do start really declining, it will probably mean a lot MORE foreclosures.

And, that will drive down home prices further.

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The unanswered questions are:

Where are these FMae&FMac "delinquents" located?

and

When will FnF finally get around to doing this?

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Fannie Mae Delinquencies: November 2011 
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/12/fannie-mae-delinquencies-november-2011.html
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Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Serious Delinquency Rates:
Slight increase for Freddie in November
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/fannie-mae-and-freddie-mac-serious.html
=========

Why The Lowest Mortgage Rates Of The Year Are Having No Effect

[mEDITate-OR:
not know who is right...
or who is too Far Right
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JGBellHimself

Well, WMARW, asked you:
are there "a million or 10 million mortgages that could be refinanced that are not being refinanced?"

Pointed out we:

One, there are, we are told, 50% of all mortgagors who are underwater, many by over 50% of (Y)our home's value - so, that number is .5 X mortgages.

Two, there are over a quarter of U.S. - in our prime employment income years - who have lost our jobs, and cannot find a new one - so, that's .25 X U.S.

Three, there are millions of students in college who have no money, and recent college graduates who have no jobs, no income and owe more than they will earn in the next decade, AND must pay on their student loans more than they would pay on mortgage for the cheapest foreclosure home.

And, besides, they are FAR more interested in drugs, sex and rockNroll.

Four, there are millions of U.S. who have BKed, and millions more so far "delinquent", that they will be BKed, and therefore cannot get ANY loan, at any price, from anyone - well, except for the payday lenders @ 360% or more interest.

What effect does your credit standing at the local payday "loan shark" have on your FICA score.
{ And, no, that is not a question.}

So, who's left, but you and me.

We own our own (is that not too redundant?) home, and don't need or want a mortgage. So, that leave ONLY you.

Sadly, that make you totally irrelevant...
statistically and/or politically

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JGBellHimself

And, as for YOU, Markos, why are you asking all the wrong question(S)?

Let U.S. suggest one, as an example:
If the NAR is reporting "pending home sales - Rose 7.3% in Nov = climbs to 19-month high since April 2010"...!!!
and
according you, MBA tells U.S. "Mortgage applications tied to the purchase of a home... fell 4.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis."

"Where, precisely, are Those People getting the money?"

Or, if NAR is too Far Right, are the huge increase in "cancellations" due to "Those (stupid?) People" going out to "buy" a home, assuming that they can obtain the necessary financing - somewhere? Or, sell their old home for what they still owe on it?

Or, this one:
What percentage of REFI apps, are by "Those (stupid?) People"?

- who could not possibly get a new mortgage, who don't have the cash to buy down their existing underwater mortgage, and/or are making a last ditch, futile effort to avoid BK by borrowing money to pay off all their other delinquent debts?

And, finally - well, for them, if not U.S. -
How many parents - both divorced and about to be divorced - among U.S., went out and bought Christmas presents using checks on overdrawn accounts, credit cards that still were usable even though the last, few payments were skipped; and/or too much of our "Mad Money" that was stashed away, for emergencies?

And, in a few more days, will not have money for gas - to get the kids to daycare, before work? Nor the "rent" due?

========
Why The Lowest Mortgage Rates Of The Year Are Having No Effect
http://seekingalpha.com/article/316774-why-the-lowest-mortgage-rates-of-the-year-are-having-no-effect
=============

Fixed mortgage rates rise above record lows = Average on the 30-year home loan increased to 3.95 % from 3.91 %

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that you, too, actually CAN get a RE loan...
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Mortgage rates finish year near historic lows
http://www.housingwire.com/2011/12/29/mortgage-rates-finish-year-near-historic-lows
========

Las Vegas home sales rise as demand for homes priced under $200,000 grows

[mEDITate-OR:

or not find this astounding..., for two reasons...

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First, it looks like, as "all cash investors" stopped buying in AZ, they flooded into Lost Vegas

Second, Nev just adopted a new "foreclosure reduction" law.

So...

as buyers flood in, Nev shuts "the gated community".

Question:

Where will the all cash investor go next?

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The median sales price in Las Vegas remained at $115,000 for the third consecutive month in a row.

The number of November home sales with transaction prices in the below $100,000-range

grew 32.8% from last year, representing 41.6% of all deals for the month.

Meanwhile, the number of sales below $200,000 rose 16.5% year-over-year.

Higher-end sales declined, with transactions in the above $200,000-threshold declining 8.8% from a year ago.

=======
Las Vegas home sales rise
as demand for homes priced under $200,000 grows
http://www.housingwire.com/2011/12/30/las-vegas-home-sales-rise-as-demand-for-homes-priced-under-200000-grows
=======

S&P: Buying, renting costs draw closer

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S&P: Buying, renting costs draw closer
http://www.housingwire.com/2011/12/30/sp-buying-renting-costs-draw-
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Unemployment: Initial, Continued and Extended Claims Dec 29 = Weekly Jobless Claims Rebound - up 15000 - first time in 4 weeks - But Remain Below 400,000 = 'More Erratic Than Normal' This Time Of Year

[mEDITate-OR:
not see any "politics" in these jobs reports...
intended or not
-----------
In the first two charts we are shown not only where we currently are
but also how far down in a jobs hole we are.
In the second two charts - one from the illustrious NYTs
we see a very slightly declining number of claims.
So
which is correct.
Well
both are.

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Extended Unemployment: 
Initial, Continued and Extended Unemployment Claims December 29 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/12/extended-unemployment-initial-continued_30.html
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NAR Index of pending home sales - Rose 7.3% in Nov = climbs to 19-month high since April 2010

[mEDITate-OR
assume this is not one of messiest RE reports, ever...
---------
While NAR did, finally, adjust its "sales" report, to eliminate some "problems"
they did not adjust this "pending" sales report.
Why?
The same MLS overlap that was such a problem for final RE "sales"
it taken from the same MLSs - so, what is different.
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Far more serious is the report by Lawler on Calculated Risk
that the "adjustments" that WERE made were "all over the map"
literally and figuratively =
massive shifts where there probably were none
and
almost no shifts where their HAD to be a large one.
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Index of pending home sales climbs to 19-month high
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2011/12/pending-home-sales-up.html
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NAR Pending Home Sales Up 7.3% for Nov
Contract signings for US homes up 7 percent in November, highest since April 2010
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Pending Home Sales: November 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/12/pending-home-sales-november-2011.html
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Contract signings for homes up in November
But the gauge has become less reliable lately because of cancellations
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45815247/ns/business-real_estate/t/contract-signings-homes-november/
==========

PEs = S&P/Case-Shiller: Oct

[mEDITate-OR:
 not see how very interestingly different Sold @da Top's charts are...
---------
Usually S@Ts charts are shown as one (1) chart with many complex layers.
For CS however, we are given not only the one complex chart...
but a number of very interesting, but different views.
-----------
For example, take the three "green charts" for total change, last year and last month.
Notice:
for total change Phoenix is 2nd worse.
for change in the last year Phoenix is THE worst.
but
for change in the last month Phoenix is the ONLY city not still falling.
--------
See, if you can find THAT info anywhere else on the web.
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S&P/Case-Shiller: October 2011
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2011/12/s-october-2011.html
========

Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Prices Still Falling

[mEDITate-OR:
not enjoy a little "local" flavour...
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First, is TTs city graph, which is interesting, except for Phoenix, which might be wrong.
Second, is the city graph showing U.S. the collapse, by city, over time.
Showing U.S. that while all cities are unequal
some were, and still are, more unequal than others.
The 3rd graph is a "time lapse" shot
showing how Seattle & Portland were "late to the party", but similar
but also where we are now seeing similar declines to LA and SD
---------
What is also interesting is the differences NOW between Phoenix and Lost Vegas.
Due to the limited supply of foreclosures, prices in Phoenix appear to have bottomed out or even started to rise.
While Lost Vegas is still falling.
However, Nev just adopted an anti-foreclosure law, which MIGHT stop the supply of new foreclosures.
Which might eliminate the bottom RE segment of all cash buyers buying the cheapest foreclosure homes.
Which might make Lost Vegas become "more like Phoenix" in the Spring.
WE will see.
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Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Prices Still Falling
http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2011/12/28/case-shiller-seattle-home-prices-still-falling/
=========