RE and economic charts: Existing Home Sales in June: 4.77 million SAAR, 9.5 months of supply

Saturday, July 23, 2011

Existing Home Sales in June: 4.77 million SAAR, 9.5 months of supply

[mEDITate-OR:
assume that all existing homes, like all new homes, look and are alike.
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If you have been following Bill@CR, you will know that he is far more concerned, for the economy, by the lack of new homes - bcuz they mean new jobs.
What concerns him about existing home sales is that there is an unknown number of "hidden inventory" foreclosure homes - not yet foreclosed on, in foreclosure and REO held back homes - that simply have to clear the market for there to be any hope of a RE recovery.
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Some of U.S. believe that they must be a jobs recovery BEFORE there can ever be an existing homes recovery, and long before any new homes recovery.
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This week we have the NAR, and other reports, about existing homes
The 1st CR chart shows U.S. both the seasonality of existing home sales
AND the fact that we are not only behind the peak years, but last year too.
True, last year was inflated by the New Home Buyers Tax Credit.
but, that does not change the fact that home prices are down this year
a lot in many states - and double digit decline in Wa, OR and AZ
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What the 3rd, 4th and 6th charts show U.S. is the huge increase in inventory and months supply - both of which show seasonal upticks, and the fact that seasonal sales are NOT buying them.
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What the 5th chart shows U.S. is that while the seasonal price increases are slightly higher than the last two year, the seasonal low prices this winter were much lower than the prior two year.
A higher high after a much lower low.
What, precisely, does that tell U.S.
Probably nothing.
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