assume that all reports are basically equal
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Compare the very good effort by Daniel@Atlantic.
He may not always provide charts as nice as The PE or Bill@CR
but, what he does to is try to explain what is, and what is not, taking place.
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The 2nd article is sadly interesting, bcuz the normally early and accurate reports from The Housing Wire got this months numbers badly wrong in their headline.
True, almost everyone else did too, but...
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JGBellHimself
Very good Daniel, not only have you been one of the few to separate out single vs multi family numbers - starts & permits, but you are one of even less who try to understand what they mean. As you must know BillatCR also is doing that, and has been predicting a large increase in multi this and next year.
However, there may be some things for you to look at more closely.
First, while we have been mentioning to you for a couple of years now, that "all cash investors" are buying up the cheapest foreclosures in the sand states, and renting bcuz they cannot sell them yet to make a profit; what is now being reported is that there is much more competition for those homes! And, they ask, why don't the banksters make it easier for all the rest of U.S. to buy those homes, and help drive up the prices they receive? Are the banksters stupid? Sorry, that's redundant.
Second, while you are obviously correct about people shifting from home ownership to renting, there are a few sub-currents here. One, is that back then, when they could buy a singe home, they did, in droves. Do you assume that given the chance they would not do that again? Why? Or, if they cannot buy one, they will not rent one?
While foreclosures obviously are evicting many, how many are sitting in "their" homes, not paying rent, and not moving into rental housing, yet. Are you assuming that they will move into "apartments" or "condos"? Why? We suspect that the all cash investors are NOT making that assumption.
If there is a "hidden inventory" of empty homes that we cannot live in yet, is THAT why there is such high apartment demand? Or, are people finding new jobs, and moving into a place of their own? Ya, right.
Third, while landlords are "cashing in" on high demand, and builders are rushing to fill the assumed future demand, where IS the "overbuilt" supply of homes you believe exists?
IF there is such an oversupply of "housing", and IF many, even most, of U.S. want to live in single unit housing, why are we assuming that we need a huge supply of new rental units? Is this not just another bubble?
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Chart of the Day: The Diverging Home Building Sectors
http://www.theatlantic.com/
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Housing starts up 14.6% in June to 629,000
http://www.housingwire.com/
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