think that they have thought of everything....
and fully accounted for it.
Much like our US$ in Afghanistan.
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JGBHimself says:
3 September 2011 at 11:28 pm
Setting aside the fact that we find you, and almost all of your postings, to be far superior to almost everything else we read, we were shocked, absolutely SHOCKED, to see you feeling sorry for yourself, when you said: "But it just makes you mad when money is wasted on an ineffective stimulus – and it clouds your ability to trend the data."
You po' baby. Yo' "models" didn't work they way you thought they would!!!
Brings tears to my eyes.
No - not that your models didn't work; but that you totally missed what did NOT happen - aka, the dog didn't bark.
Steve, let's - you, me and U.S. - try to get serious. Well, for the moment.
What if W had NOT "nationalized" FMae&FMac, who were at the time doing over 85% of ALL loans made to U.S.? What IF China's US$ 35 Billion a month subsidy of home loans had NOT been replaced by the FED/Treasury? What IF the total RE market had collapsed/frozen and there were NO home loans made at any price to any of U.S.?
Have you modeled/analyzed THIS one?
How many of the outstanding/overhanging inventory of new construction homes were sold to "brand new home buyers tax credit" purchasers? Do you know? Who would have bought them, if they had not? Anybody? What if that "absolutely NOT 'hidden' inventory" still existed?
How many more builders, subs N supplier, local bank construction lenders - RE agents, escrows, title cos, mortgage brokers, et al, et ux - would have been totally wiped out?
Have you modeled/analyzed THAT one?
True, home builders would have had even more & larger losses to write off under their new IRS rules. Steve, do you have ANY idea how much THAT little chunk of change is?
JMC, we might have a balanced budget today if we had not given that money away.
(and, yes, Steve, that is, and is not, a joke)
What even your own charts show U.S. is that post hoc, ergo propter hoc - AFTER the "nationalization" and the Buyer's tax credits, the steep decline stopped.
Permanently, of course not. But, for you to assume that "nothing much happened", other than them messing with Yo' charts, is very much in horror (sp?).
Tis, in fact, The Fact that they DID mess up "your charts" that we are not in a full depression. And, yes, we do know that is "argumentative". Prove me wrong.
Even more to the point, and we are seriously complementary here, can you use your "charts" to show U.S. what w/c/should not have happened IF they had done nothing?
To argue that nothing was changed, you are obligated to show U.S. what would have occurred if nothing had happened.
Tis like being in college, once again; and saying that since wearing a condom was proven to prevent your being able to "feel everything on your Far Right side", that if only you had NOT worn one, nothing significantly bad would ever have happened.
Non post hoc, ergo propter non hoc.
(or something like that:)
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Has Stimulus Distorted Housing Bottom?
http://econintersect.com/wordpress/?p=12598
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