Saturday, December 3, 2011

Caveat on the use of BLS Jobs Data

[mEDITate-OR:
spare yourself the frustrations of making any real sense out of this BLS, or BS labor, report.
-----
In the Steven Hanson @ Econintersect article below
Steven points out two very significant points:
First, the numbers that everyone was "waiting for" and counting on to tell all of U.S. what is really happen'n..., WILL be revised, again later.
And, when you look at the past "revisions, you TOO will see that the changes incoming are extremely variable.
So, what we see now, will be much different later.
Second, the BLS vs ADP split is very alive and healthy, once again.
Over time, the twain will get close together, but each month...
they are like husbands and wives living on opposite coast.
They MAY love each other, but it is very hard to tell.
----------
And, if you do not see the humour (Can sp) in these BLS, or BS labor, numbers, take a long hard look at these:
In the last MONTH:
The civilian population went up by 172K
The labor force went down by -315K
Those employed went up by 278K
and
Those not IN the labor force went up (ie, down) by 487K
And, those working part time went down by -378K
----------
Roughly translated:
The only reason that the Participation Rate changed...
was that half a million were "removed" from the labor force.
Statistics always are most interesting, are they not.
The problem is, of course, like with our Rice Krispies, tis very difficult for U to tell when their numbers "snap, crackle or pop"!
========

----------

==========
BLS Employment Rises 120,000 in November 2011, Unemployment 8.6%
http://econintersect.com/wordpress/?p=16370
=======

No comments:

Post a Comment