Friday, June 18, 2010

New jobless claims take surprise jump = "L" shaped recovery

[mEDITate-OR;

not see that it it is not getting better...

Jobless claims up, home sales heading back down - a lot.
This is not only a jobless recovery, it might not BE a recovery.

Sleep tight, and don't let the BEDouins bite.
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New jobless claims take surprise jump

Claims rise to highest level in a month, showing hiring remains spotty

The number of people filing new claims for jobless benefits jumped last week after three straight declines, another sign that hiring remains weak.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37749637/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/from/ET

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Consumer prices drop for 2nd straight month

Biggest decline since prices plunged 0.7 percent in December 2008

Consumer prices fell for the second straight month, extending a break for Americans' pocketbooks. Less expensive energy bills were the main factor pulling down prices.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37749643/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/from/ET

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Wholesale prices fall for second straight month

Absence of inflationary pressure means Fed can keep rates low

Wholesale prices fell for a second straight month in May, the first time that has happened in a year, reflecting big declines in the cost of energy and food.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37725751/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/?ns=business-stocks_and_economy/from/ET

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The dollar's strong (but not the one you think)

[mEDITate-OR:
follow the North Star, and not know where it leads U.S...

True, not only does Canada have gold, which is at historic highs...
but it has more nickel than Russia, Cuba & the rest of the world combined...
{you can NOT fight a war, with bullets, without nickel}

And, while we export US$ 4+ billion a month to Canada for oil...
{Mexico gets US$ 3+ and Venezuela gets US$ 2+ billion a month...}

Canada has "natural gas" and the only "land" route from the North Slope to U.S.

And, Canada did not have any Bank/lender subprime or ARM loan problems with RE.

============

The Buzz

The dollar's strong (but not the one you think)

The Canadian dollar has rallied sharply against the U.S. greenback over the past year thanks to a boom in commodities and stronger recovery signs

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- There has been a lot of talk lately about how strong the dollar is. But if you're looking for a real strong dollar, just gaze north.

Sure, the greenback has done great against the euro. But that's not saying much. The U.S. dollar is still a proverbial 97-pound weakling compared to the Canadian dollar.

http://money.cnn.com/2010/06/18/markets/thebuzz/index.htm

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Thursday, June 17, 2010

Mortgage rates up from yearly low

[mEDITate-OR:

swing up and down, with impunity, to the value of the EURO...

While the RE mortgage rates hover at record lows...

the prices of homes, after the buyer tax credit expired...

have dropped in almost all markets.

Now, buyers are finding that they can buy a home for effectively less than they could before the expirations.

Bcuz, sellers, who needed to sell, but could not..., are now dropping their prices.

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Mortgage rates up from yearly low

National average for a 30-year fixed loan dips slightly to 4.75 percent

Rates on 30-year fixed mortgages backed off from yearly lows this week, but still remain historically cheap.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7148582/ns/business-real_estate/from/ET

=========

Mortgage applications rise nearly 18 percent

Applications to refinance home loans were up 21 percent

The number of customers applying for mortgages jumped last week, a sign that the market could be stabilizing after dropping off sharply last month.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37736704/ns/business-real_estate/from/ET

==========

New jobless claims take surprise jump + Consumer prices - Wholesale prices - drop for 2nd straight month

[mEDItate-OR:

think that everything has gotten better, in every way, every day...

Even if you HAVE lost your job, now you can feed your family...

assuming they are still with you...

for less.

These three reports/chart are NOT good news.

We are, in fact, falling back into a recession/depression.

Congress has decided that U.S. cannot afford to assist you, any more.

"Let them eat cake!!"..., it's now cheaper than it was.

------------

New jobless claims take surprise jump

Claims rise to highest level in a month, showing hiring remains spotty

The number of people filing new claims for jobless benefits jumped last week after three straight declines, another sign that hiring remains weak.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37749637/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/from/ET

===========

Consumer prices drop for 2nd straight month

Biggest decline since prices plunged 0.7 percent in December 2008

Consumer prices fell for the second straight month, extending a break for Americans' pocketbooks. Less expensive energy bills were the main factor pulling down prices.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37749643/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/from/ET

============

Wholesale prices fall for second straight month

Absence of inflationary pressure means Fed can keep rates low

Wholesale prices fell for a second straight month in May, the first time that has happened in a year, reflecting big declines in the cost of energy and food.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37725751/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/?ns=business-stocks_and_economy/from/ET

===========

Dollar extends slide against euro

[mEDITate-OR:

not bother asking why the stock market goes up, a lot

when the dollar falls against the EURO.

However, your cheep trip to France may no longer be available.

However, there should still be some cheep wine here.

-----------

---------------

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Dollar extends slide against euro

http://money.cnn.com/2010/06/15/markets/dollar/index.htm

=======

Arizona home builders buying up land once again VS Is a housing shortage coming?

[mEDITate-OR:

misconstrue what this really means..., to Arid-zone-Ah-eons and U.S.

What Catherine reported to U.S. a few weeks ago was that new home builders were buying, using and then selling fully completed lots to home buyers using the Buyers Tax Credit. But, that the cost of "land" was a fraction of the peak prices.

Now, what we are seeing is that bcuz they are "flush" with cash...

lots of new home sales

AND

a Federal tax "rebate" that allows them to write off all of their losses over the last few years against their even more distant past and current profits.

So..., they are now "land banking".

Buying completely ready lots at fire sale prices.

Does this mean that they see a missive increase in home sales...

nyet, nada, zed, zero..., are you kidding.

=============

Arizona home builders buying up land once again

Builders buying empty parcels for development as housing industry regroups

Metro Phoenix's home-building market
Home-building permits

604 issued in April 2010
622 issued in April 2009
5,294 issued in April 2005
Home-building permits issued in the first four months of the year
2,964 issued through April 2010
1,561 home-building permits issued through April 2009
Home-building permits
8,500: Projection for home-building permits in 2010
8,027 home-building permits issued in 2009
64,000 home-building permits issued in 2005.

http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/2010/06/13/20100613arizona-home-builders-rebound.html#reply20363164#ixzz0qnOK3mql

===========

Is a housing shortage coming?

http://money.cnn.com/2010/06/15/real_estate/new_housing_bubble/

==========

Rates on Treasurys hit lowest level since January

[mEDITate-OR:

fall on your knees, in awe and shock...

This chart is very good news..., for RE interest rates.

However, it also suggests that we - you and U.S. - are even more in flux than we thought we were.

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Rates on Treasurys hit lowest level since January

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100614/ap_on_bi_ge/us_treasury_bills

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Treasurys fall as euro gains

http://money.cnn.com/2010/06/14/markets/bondcenter/treasurys/index.htm

===========

Did we dodge a bullet on commercial real estate? Maybe or no way...

[mEDITate-OR:

are we begging the question.

This week there was issued only the 2nd package of CommercialMBS's this year.

If you look at the chart of CMBS delinquencies, you will think you see why.

You do not.

For two reasons.

First, what we need to know is what KIND of CRE loans those are...

If they REFIs, then we need to know if they are delay and deny loans being rolled over

whether they truly ARE modifications of prior loans with the write downs being fully taken.

Or, whether they are NEW, original CRE loans.

bcuz if they are then they are packages of CRE properties bought at highly marked down price.

and/or they are very high grade CRE properties.

As the comment to the Seattle Times 1st article points out to U.S.:
A total of $602 billion were written between 2005 and 2007 --

49 percent of all such securities issued over the past 20 years

Almost all of those loans are 5 year balloon CREs, which MUST be

paid off, rolled over, or foreclosed upon between 2010 and 2012.

Why are Banks/lenders so willing to roll these CRE loans over:

For perhaps a third of our local and regional banks, dealing with their existing non-performing CRE loans (never mind those that are headed for trouble) would result in overnight insolvency -- thus their desperate measures to prolong their lives are understandable

"Extend and pretend" is, in fact, really "delay and pray".

===============

Sound Economy with Jon Talton

Veteran financial journalist Jon Talton blogs daily on the most important economic news, trends and issues involving Seattle and the Northwest. Read his regular column every other Sunday in the Seattle Times.

------------

Did we dodge a bullet on commercial real estate? Maybe or no way...

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/soundeconomywithjontalton/2012089767_already_wounded_but_dodging_a.html

============

Rating Agencies See

CMBS Delinquencies Rise in May

http://www.housingwire.com/2010/06/11/rating-agencies-see-cmbs-delinquencies-rise-in-may

============

Council Pushes Loan-Modification Disclosure

Commercial Mortgage Alert

http://www.cmalert.com/headlines.php?hid=71283

===========

Builders Rush to Complete Houses by U.S. Tax Credit Deadline + What tax credit did for market

[mEDITate_OR:

miss two major perversions in the RE markets...

First, we see the massive increase in TEMPORARY construction employment, to finish off the Buyer Tax Credit homes.

Second, we are now seeing a massive decrease in the price of homes that were not sold.

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"Now that the tax credit is over, we are seeing record price reductions" by sellers

"These price reductions are three to four times more than the tax credit" - $8,000 for qualified first-time buyers; $6,500 maximum for some repeat buyers.

Buyers who waited until after the tax-credit deadline might gain from these reductions.

Sellers who held out for higher prices while the tax credits were in place are much more willing to negotiate now or lower their prices.

"We are seeing hundreds of 5 percent to 20 percent price reductions,"

"The buyers who waited until now may get the best deals of all."

=======

Builders Rush to Complete Houses by U.S. Tax Credit Deadline

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=akZGcJglxUaY

=======

What tax credit did for market

http://www.philly.com/inquirer/columnists/al_heavens/20100606_On_the_House__What_tax_credit_did_for_market.html#ixzz0qdHQ1Qdb

==========

Phoenix Real Estate Pending Sales Near Record Levels.

[mEDITate-OR:

not see that this really IS significant...

why are pending sales greater now than in 2005

This first chart is stunning.

Pending sales are, now, higher than during the peak years...!!!

True, prices are depressed buy 50 to 60 %

but, there ARE buyers and there ARE sellers.

True, there has been a massive shift from low priced foreclosures

towards short sales for mid & higher priced homes.

But, the RE market is VERY active.

If you can sell you current home for the best price you can get...

and then buy the best home you can find at the best price you can get...

you CAN make a LOT of money.

===============

Phoenix Real Estate Pending Sales Near Record Levels

Over 14,000 homes are under contract and awaiting to close,

a number surpassed only one month ago at 15,131.

Pending home sales are a very good indicator of what's coming in the near future: pending sales are contracts in escrow that are not yet closed. Just about a month ago the Phoenix market hit a peak of pending residential sales at 15,131. That was right before the tax credit deadline.

Even now, nearing the end of My we are near record levels for Pending numbers, well over 14,000. This is much higher then ever and certainly more then the span of the chart above which begins in 2001.

What you need to know is that the market is very active and any good inventory is moving quite fast into new hands leaving a steady 4-5 month supply of active properties: rather balanced. If there is a nice home that matches your needs and want plus it's priced properly then don't wait to put in an offer as it is likely that soon someone else will.

This time of year and for about another month is the busiest each year: the seasonal peak.

http://www.phoenixmarkettrends.com/public/item/254666

============

ARMLS stands for Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service.

CHARTS AVAILABLE:

View the number of Residential (Class 1) listings added monthly or view sales activity charted by Average List/Sales Price and Median List/Sales Price. These charts cover years 2001 - 2009.

2001 - 2010 New Listing Chart

2001 - 2010 Sold Charts

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Mortgage rates are near all-time low

[mEDITate-OR:

wonder why we are not buying a lot'a new homes, or gett'n a REFI...

Actually, it is even more interesting than that.

Home prices in almost every state are falling, AFTER the end of the Buyer Tax Credit.

Why?

Bcuz, if you did not sell your home with all those incentives, you are not going to - at your selling price.

So..., what we are NOW seeing is that prices are falling - to the point that SOME buyers in SOME markets, can buy a home for less than they could UNDER the buyer tax credit.

Go figure???

So, now, with the lower prices AND lower mortgage rates...!!!

IF you need to buy, you CAN find some really great bargains.

----------------

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==============

Mortgage rates are near all-time low

http://articles.latimes.com/2010/jun/11/business/la-fi-mortgage-rates-20100611

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Freddie Mac: Mortgage rates hit low for year

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100610/ap_on_bi_ge/us_mortgage_rates_3

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Refis Tough But Tempting With Rate Dip

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ibd/20100610/bs_ibd_ibd/536964

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Federal budget deficit grows at slower pace in May + streak at 20 months = $135.9 Billion

[mEDITate-OR:

not realize that you're up to your neck in do-do...

Here's the problem...

Housing has tanked

employment has tanked

state & local employment has tanked

They did improve health care, but did NOT solve the exploding cost problems

But, not just, like FDR, what we are about to do is CUT Federal spending...

by cutting state and local govt transfer payments

AND

by cutting medicare & medicaid reimbursements to the states.

As "trickle down economics" proved to U.S., all Shiites run down hill.

But, quitting, before the job's job was done, we have now created another Great Depression - stage two.

Instead of it getting better..., it will, now, get a great deal worse.

Nobody ever got rich betting against the stupidity of {y}our neo-RonnieR's-conservatives.

==========

U.S. NATIONAL DEBT CLOCK
The Outstanding Public Debt as of 11 Jun 2010 at 11:39:24 AM GMT is:

The estimated population of the United States is 308,540,320
so each citizen's share of this debt is $42,304.30.
The National Debt has continued to increase an average of $4.10 billion per day since September 28, 2007!

http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/

=============

Federal budget deficit grows at slower pace in May

Chart shows the monthly federal budget deficit

http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/06/10/v-print/1673477/federal-budget-deficit-grows-at.html#ixzz0qXk1pfbL

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U.S. deficit streak at 20 months

http://money.cnn.com/2010/06/10/news/economy/US_budget_deficit/index.htm

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Bloomberg

Treasury May Budget Deficit in U.S. at $135.9 Billion

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-06-10/treasury-may-budget-deficit-in-u-s-at-135-9-billion-update1-.html

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China reports May export surge but European debt crisis likely to hurt trade recovery

[mEDITate-OR:

not find three very good reports on China's trade...

from Canada.

NOT from U.S.

plus two more that you should read.

Europe is NOW far more important to China's current economic situation than we are.

However, as "they" tell U.S. -- be very careful what you ask for.

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Chart showing China's trade surplus, at 19.5 billion dollars ...

=============

China trade surplus soars in May on export boom

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/afp/100610/business/china_economy_exports_3

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China reports May export surge but

European debt crisis likely to hurt trade recovery

The 27-country European Union is China's biggest trading partner and Beijing is closely following Europe's debt problems, which are expected to hurt consumer spending.

Exports to Europe were up 34.4 per cent in May from a year earlier while those to the United States rose 24.8 per cent.

China's politically sensitive trade surplus with the United States was $16.7 billion.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/100610/business/as_china_trade_1

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Chinese exports leap putting yuan back under microscope

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/100610/business/cbusiness_us_china_economy_13

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China's May exports up 48.5%

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2010-06/10/c_13343032.htm

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Experts: EU debt crisis unlikely to shake up Chinese economy

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/indepth/2010-06/10/c_13342595.htm