Harvest time: The migrant economy

[mEDITate-OR:
be starving for accurate information...
or simply starving to death.
-----------

FORTUNE -- Global weather disruptions have boosted food prices this fall, but one thing that hasn't changed is the annual migration of workers to farms. Here are some key facts about the migrant economy:

between 50% and 60% of the food Americans eat has been handled by immigrants (legal or not).

$10.82: The average hourly wage paid by farm operators in July, That's up 16¢ from a year ago.
1.4 million: The estimated number of crop workers in 2007.

One-third of them were migrant workers (traveling at least 75 miles to a farm job).

74%: Approximate percentage of crop workers in America who were born in Mexico.

More than half of all migrant workers are believed to be undocumented.

============
Harvest time: The migrant economy
http://money.cnn.com/2010/10/25/news/economy/farming_statistics.fortune/index.htm
============

The Project on Student Debt. Student Debt and the Class of 2009

[mEDITate-OR:

not see that some of U.S. are drowning in debt...

even before we are able to earn the funds to re-pay it.

"They" said they did not increase your taxes.

"They" increased your parents and grandparents SS, Medicare & Medicare benefits.

But, "They" did not increase anybody's contribution to pay for it.

"They" will have to cut your benefits.

"They" have, and will even more, increase your tuition.

"They" did not increase your student aid.

"They" increased your more expensive student loans...

and cut the less expensive ones.

When you get, or got, out, there will be no jobs for you.

You will not be eligible for unemployment insurance...

you weren't working, by "their" definitions.

"They" wish you the absolute best...!

-----------

-------------

------------
Average debt by state
October 22, 2010

Highest
1. District of Columbia	$30,033
2. New Hampshire	$29,443
3. Maine	$29,143
4. Iowa	$28,883
5. Vermont	$27,786
26. Illinois	$22,049
Lowest
49. Utah	$12,860
48. Georgia	$16,568
47. Nevada	$16,742
46. Wyoming	$17,084
45. Delaware	$17,200
Figures for Hawaii and Idaho were not included because of incomplete data

-----------

--------

----------

College seniors who graduated in 2009 carried an average of $24,000 in student loan debt. Meanwhile, unemployment for recent college graduates climbed from 5.8% in 2008 to 8.7% in 2009 - the highest annual rate on record for college graduates aged 20 to 24. Our new report, Student Debt and the Class of 2009, includes average debt levels for the 50 states and District of Columbia and more than 1,000 U.S. colleges and universities.

Click here to view the interactive map

 Read the report

 Read the press release

=========

The Project on Student Debt
Student Debt and the Class of 2009
http://www.projectonstudentdebt.org/
--------------
Student Loan Debt Continuing to Rise, New Report Finds
http://www.nasfaa.org/publications/2010/rnloandebtreport102210.html
========

Courts Add To Foreclosure Delay + House Prices Will Now Drop Another 20%

[mEDITate-OR:
not see that we are NOT all the same...
However, not only do you need to distinguish judicial from non-judicial, you also need to compare "deficiency" vs non-deficiency states.
Disirregardless, what you also NEED to see is that not only have foreclosures shifted from the sand state problem RE loans, but in the sand states the problem has shifted from the lower priced peak RE sales, to the full range of higher RE loans - whenever and no matter how high.
-----------

---------

------------

===========
Courts Add To Foreclosure Delay
Process is Slow in 23 States Where Judges Handle Default Cases
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703358504575544342488365152.html
------------
Here's Why House Prices Will Now Drop Another 20%
And then there's the still-massive number of foreclosures, which will keep pressure on prices
http://www.businessinsider.com/gary-shilling-house-prices#and-then-theres-the-still-massive-number-of-foreclosures-which-will-keep-pressure-on-prices-9
============

Good Grief Graph Friday: The international wealth gap = the W years

[mEDITate-OR;

not see that you been had....

-------------    Your worth Before W and After W

Before - only the Swiss were above U.S.

After - France, Sweden, Autralia, Norway AND the Swiss are above U.S.

and, Italy and England are fast catching up.

------------    the end of W (and your jobs) to the new beginning of O

 ------------    what W gave to all of U.S.

 

------

--------    How big W's sinkhole is

-------------    Proof of who..., did what..., to you !!!

==========

Good Grief Graph Friday:
The international wealth gap = the W years
http://lifeinc.todayshow.com/_news/2010/10/15/5295665-good-graph-friday-the-international-wealth-gap
===========

Good Grief Graph Friday: The rich got richer

[mEDITate-OR:

--------------
Tax Data Show Richest 1 Percent Took a Hit in 2008
But Income Remained Highly Concentrated at the Top
Recent Gains of Bottom 90 Percent Wiped Out
---------

------------
High Concentration Persists at the Very Top
--------

TABLE 1: Average Income Gains, Adjusted for Inflation
	Income Gain During Expansion (2002 to 2007)		Loss During First Year of Recession (2007 to 2008)		Change Since Beginning of Expansion (2002 to 2008)
Bottom 90 percent	$1,250	4%	-$2,420	-7%	- $1,170	-4%
Top 1 percent	$541,140	62%	-$279,200	-20%	$261,930	30%
Top 0.01 percent	$20,072,720	123%	-$9,045,980	-25%	$11,026,750	68%
Note: In 2008, the bottom 90 percent of households were those with incomes below about $110,000. The top 1 percent were those with incomes above about $370,000, and the top 0.01 percent were those with incomes above about $9,140,000. Calculations are in current 2008 dollars.

--------
Longer-Term Trends in Income Concentration
==========
Good Grief Graph Friday: The rich got richer
http://lifeinc.todayshow.com/_news/2010/10/22/5335866-good-graph-friday-the-rich-got-richer-
----------
Tax Data Show Richest 1 Percent Took a Hit in 2008

But Income Remained Highly Concentrated at the Top

Recent Gains of Bottom 90 Percent Wiped Out

http://www.cbpp.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=view&id=3309
========

2nd Clear Capital Report - Early Seasonal Slowdown as U.S. Home Prices Decline and Weaker Markets Head for Big Chill

[mEDITate-OR:
still think that "Go West...!"
makes any economic sense...

Not only is the West suffering increased/worse unemployment...
but, if this report is correct, RE tis gonna get a lot worse.
Note: Tucson & Phoenix are 3 and 5
AND: Portland & Seattle are now 6 and 7
MOG.
----------
"With the effects of the recession still being felt by home buyers and sellers, the lack of demand is causing strong markets to lose their upward momentum, while sending weak markets into double dip territory.
National prices are still 10 percent above their 2009 lows, so the risk of new record lows this year remains small."
------------
Report highlights include:
National / Four Region Overview: Nationally, quarter-over-quarter home prices dip into negative territory (-0.2%). All four regions did retain their year-over-year price gains, but this slowdown appears likely to mark an early onset to the typically weaker markets of fall and winter.
Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) drilldown: A home pricing slowdown was broadly felt even among the highest performing major markets, as quarterly price gains deteriorated in fourteen of the fifteen markets compared to last month's report. All 15 of the lowest performing major markets experienced negative quarterly price changes for the first time since June. REO saturation rates in these lowest performing markets are rising, up 2.9 percentage points on average over last month's report.
Micro Market Analysis: After large price declines between 2006 and 2009, the Providence, R.I. MSA has rebounded to enjoy a 9.7 percent increase in home prices this year. Cranston (ZIP 02920) outperformed the rest of this MSA, experiencing a 13.2 percent gain in home prices, while Warwick (ZIP 02886) experienced a -20.7 
percent price change, making it the worst performing market in the area.
==========

--------------

-----------
All Markets Back in Negative Territory
All 15 markets on this list experienced a negative quarter-over-quarter price change for the first time since June's report.
REO saturation moved upward in these markets, rising 2.9 percentage points on average over last month's report.
Tucson and Phoenix, Ariz., Atlanta, Ga., and Las Vegas, Nev. once again remained among the top ten lowest performing markets, and continue to face large (on average 44%) and growing (up 4.0% on average from last month) REO saturation rates.
California markets dropped from the lowest performing major markets list, not due to great performance, rather the dismal price changes in markets outside the West.
With the growing number of markets now showing a downturn in home prices, REO saturation is moving upward as well. In markets where REO saturation influences are returning, prices are likely to suffer disproportionately from the national trend in upcoming months—possibly pushing these markets into double-dip territory.
============
Clear Capital Reports Early Seasonal Slowdown
as U.S. Home Prices Decline and Weaker Markets Head for Big Chill
http://www.clearcapital.com/company/MarketReport.cfm?month=October&year=2010
========

The War of the Worlds has begun

[mEDITate-OR:
not only not see, but not even understand...
how currency changes have moved U.S. over the last year

Below are some charts - the first two show U.S. the EURO and Can over the last three months.
Note - China has not change, being pegged to U.S.
However, what we see is that both the EURO and CAN - and most other currencies
have gone up as we devalued our currency to increase our exports.

However, look at the next three (3) charts showing U.S. this last years movements.

Note, that while Canada has bounced widely, but up, some.
Then NOTE that the EURO dropped drastically due to the "Greek crisis", scaring the Hell out of them and U.S. too!!!

Now, look at Japan.  Up, and up, and UP...!!!

While some of U.S..., with China..., have been on a roller coaster
Japan has been priced out of the world's markets.

What we are now doing is insisting that China, and the rest of the world, allow U.S. do devalue our dollar to accomplish OUR economic objectives - and INTO their markets
while THEY get priced out of OUR markets.

Oddly, nobody but U.S. likes having U.S. "do it" to them.
------------

--------------

==============

------------

--------------

=========

Real earnings fall 0.1 percent in September - Consumer Prices rise 1.1% in September 2010

[mEDITate-OR:
that you, too, are falling behind...
Déjà vu..., all over again...
---------

--------------

===========
Real earnings fall 0.1 percent in September
http://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2010/ted_20101020.htm
------------
Consumer Prices rise 1.1% in September 2010
http://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2010/ted_20101019.htm
==========

Report: 1.2 Million Workers could lose Unemployment Benefits next month

[mEDITate-OR:

feel a little bit like "Bob" Cratchit

while the rest of U.S. get into the Christmas spirit...

and the least of these get into the Christmas "spirits".

-------------

============
Report: 1.2 Million Workers could lose Unemployment Benefits next month
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/report-12-million-workers-could-lose.html
=========

State Unemployment Rates in September: "Little changed" from August

------------

----------
Regional and state unemployment rates were little changed in September. Twenty-three states and the District of Columbia recorded unemployment rate decreases, 11 states registered rate increases, and 16 states had no rate change, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
In September, Nevada’s unemployment rate held at 14.4 percent, again the highest among the states. The states with the next highest rates were Michigan, 13.0 percent, and California, 12.4 percent. North Dakota continued to register the lowest jobless rate, 3.7 percent, followed by South Dakota and Nebraska, at 4.4 and 4.6 percent, respectively.
===========
State Unemployment Rates in September: "Little changed" from August
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/state-unemployment-rates-in-september.html
=========

Clear CapitalTM Reports Sudden and Dramatic Drop in U.S. Home Prices = Shows a Two-Month 5.9% Price Decline a Magnitude and Speed of Decline Not Seen Since Mar 09

[mEDITate-OR:
try to remember how to swim when everyone around you is sinking...
As this shows U.S. Clear Capital repeat sales index is tracking with Case-Shiller
but is about 3 months ahead of them in reporting numbers.

Disirregardless, this is NOT very good news.
In AZ this is also showing, bcuz post tax credit listings prices are being cut
larger and more of them than while the credit was available.
This suggests that these off-peak Winter sales will continue going down.
-------------
First Index Report for October Shows a Two-Month 5.9% Price Decline Representing a Magnitude and Speed of Decline Not Seen Since March 2009; Similar Declines Expected to Appear in Other Industry Indices in Coming Months
---------

===========
Clear Capital: "Sudden and Dramatic Drop in U.S. Home Prices"
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/clear-capital-sudden-and-dramatic-drop.html
-------
Market Alert: Clear Capital^TM Reports Sudden and Dramatic Drop in U.S. Home Prices
http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Market-Alert-Clear-Capital-Reports-Sudden-and-Dramatic-Drop-in-US-Home-Prices-1339566.htm
=========

Hotel Performance: RevPAR up 9.4% compared to same week in 2009

[mEDITate-OR:
not know whether this is commercial or temporary housing...
What we DO know is that in the hotel industry they are still hurting very bad.
What we are not seeing is any significant recovery.
Again, an "L" shaped jobless recovery.
--------
On a 4-week basis, occupancy is up 7.9% compared to last year (the worst year since the Great Depression) and 6.1% below the median for 2000 through 2007.
The occupancy rate is about at the levels of 2008, but RevPAR is still down 7.8%.
-------

==========
Hotel Performance: RevPAR up 9.4% compared to same week in 2009
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/hotel-performance-revpar-up-94-compared.html
===========

FHFA Projections for Fannie and Freddie draws, and House Price Assumptions

[mEDITate-OR:
not notice a very significant observations by Jim @ CR...

He predicting a second decline, based on Case-Shiller and Corelogic
both very good source of RE info
and that the total peak-to-trough of 36%, or more.

We have NOT bottomed out, we WILL see further RE price declines
and this is not over.
Not as severe as it could be, but, still, a "L" shaped recovery
and we have NOT reached the bottom, yet.
-----------
The key to the size of future draws is the trajectory of house prices.
The following graph shows the three house projections used by the FHFA:
Stronger Near-term Recovery = The peak to-trough decline is 31%.
Current Baseline = a 34% peak-to-trough decline.
Deeper Second Recession = The peak-to-trough decline is 45%. 
-------------
My current projection is for further house price declines of 5% to 10%, as measured by the Case-Shiller and Corelogic repeat sales indexes.
That would put the peak-to-trough decline around 36% or so.
----------

-----------
My current projection is for further house price declines of 5% to 10%, as measured by the Case-Shiller and Corelogic repeat sales indexes. That would put the peak-to-trough decline around 36% or so. So my guess is somewhere between scenarios 2 & 3.
---------

--------
My guess is the draw will be somewhat over scenario 2, but well below the FHFA's scenario 3.
=======
FHFA Projections for Fannie and Freddie draws
and House Price Assumptions
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/fhfa-projections-for-fannie-and-freddie.html
===========

Top 5 Graphs of the Week: China Economic Outlook = what they did right that we did not

[mEDITate-OR:
miss seeing the large changes in China during the collapse for U.S.
The 1st chart shows U.S. that when we caught a cold in 07 so did China
The 2nd chart shows U.S. that retail sales in China have more than doubled
but if it had not been for the six month at the end of 08 it would have tripled
or even quadrupled - in FIVE (5) years!
The 3rd chart shows U.S. two things:
First, China made large increases in lending and spending at the end of 08.
when our job layoffs peaked, they took economic action, immediately
Second, unlike U.S. the forced their banks to actually MAKE loans.
We bailed out GM & Chrysler and AIG, and then the Big Banks
what we did NOT do is require the Big Bad Banks to lend funds to U.S.
As Pretty Woman was oft heard to say:
      "Mistake.  Big mistake."
--------------

---------------

------------

==============
Top 5 Graphs of the Week: China Economic Outlook
http://econgrapher.blogspot.com/2010/10/top-5-economics-graphs-of-week-23.html
==============

Demographics of the self-employed

[mEDITate-OR:
not see that men are more outgoing than women
and that the young don't know what they are doing, yet.
and that the more educated the more "incorporated" you are.
and wonder why that is.
-----------
In 2009, self-employment rates were higher for men than women.
--------------
In 2009, self-employment rates for older workers continued to be higher than those for younger workers.
Among the unincorporated, self-employment rates ranged from 1.6 percent for those aged 16 to 19 years to 18.1 percent for those aged 65 years and older. Among the incorporated, self-employment rates ranged from 0.1 percent for those aged 16 to 19 years to 7.7 percent for those aged 65 years and older.
---------------

============
Demographics of the self-employed
http://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/
==========