FHFA Projections for Fannie and Freddie draws, and House Price Assumptions

[mEDITate-OR:
not notice a very significant observations by Jim @ CR...

He predicting a second decline, based on Case-Shiller and Corelogic
both very good source of RE info
and that the total peak-to-trough of 36%, or more.

We have NOT bottomed out, we WILL see further RE price declines
and this is not over.
Not as severe as it could be, but, still, a "L" shaped recovery
and we have NOT reached the bottom, yet.
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The key to the size of future draws is the trajectory of house prices.
The following graph shows the three house projections used by the FHFA:
Stronger Near-term Recovery = The peak to-trough decline is 31%.
Current Baseline = a 34% peak-to-trough decline.
Deeper Second Recession = The peak-to-trough decline is 45%. 
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My current projection is for further house price declines of 5% to 10%, as measured by the Case-Shiller and Corelogic repeat sales indexes.
That would put the peak-to-trough decline around 36% or so.
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My current projection is for further house price declines of 5% to 10%, as measured by the Case-Shiller and Corelogic repeat sales indexes. That would put the peak-to-trough decline around 36% or so. So my guess is somewhere between scenarios 2 & 3.
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My guess is the draw will be somewhat over scenario 2, but well below the FHFA's scenario 3.
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FHFA Projections for Fannie and Freddie draws
and House Price Assumptions
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/fhfa-projections-for-fannie-and-freddie.html
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