New Home Sales Jump 17.5% in December

[mEDITate-OR:
forget that a infinite increase above ground zero...
is still @ ground zero.
---------
-------------

===========
New Home Sales Jump 17.5% in December
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/01/new-home-sales-jump-175-in-december/70279/
===========

Case-Shiller: U.S. Home Prices Keep Weakening as Eight Cities Reach New Lows in November + House Prices and Months-of-Supply, and Real House Prices

[mEDITate-OR:
think that unemployment numbers tell U.S. all we need to know about home prices...
and then Like Ed McMahon, wonder why you are wrong, again, Komodo Dragon breath...

--------
When you compare Detroit, we see unemployment is getting much better, but home prices are getting much worse - very different.
When you compare Las Vegas & Phoenix, we see Nevada getting worse both ways, but while Phoenix's employment is stabilizing, home prices are still dropping a lot.
When we compare Atlanta, Seattle & Portland..., tis, not just, simply ugly.
When we compare Frisco, LA and Diego, we see stable home prices for almost two years, but the 2nd worst unemployment in the U.S. - not getting much better.
---------------
"eight markets – Atlanta, Charlotte, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami, Portland (OR), Seattle and Tampa – hit their lowest levels since home prices peaked in 2006 and 2007".
-----------
A few key points:
• The real price indexes are at post-bubble lows. Those who argued prices bottomed some time ago are already wrong in real terms, and will probably be wrong in nominal terms soon.

• Don't expect real prices to fall to '98 levels. In many areas - if the population is increasing - house prices increase slightly faster than inflation over time, so there is an upward slope in real prices.

• Real prices are still too high, but they are much closer to the eventual bottom than the top in 2005. This isn't like in 2005 when prices were way out of the normal range.

• Prices will probably fall some more and my forecast is for a decline of 5% to 10% from the October 2010 levels for the national price indexes. We will need to watch inventory (and months-of-supply) closely over the next few months to forecast house prices.

-----------

-----------

------------

-------------

------------

==========
Case-Shiller: U.S. Home Prices Keep Weakening
as Eight Cities Reach New Lows in November
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/01/case-shiller-us-home-prices-keep.html
-------
House Prices and Months-of-Supply, and Real House Prices
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/01/house-prices-and-months-of-supply-and.html
===========

Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Index November 2010

[mEDITate-OR:
think that the commercial RE problems went poof...
The Problem is that they can, suddenly, reappear.
----------------
Once again, both CR and Sold provide U.S. with two very different views of the data.
CR compares commercial with residential.
Sold compares M2M and Y2Y not seasonally adjusted, with The Index with is.
What the M2M chart shows U.S. is how volatile the data is.
What the Y2Y & The Index show U.S. is the trend lines.
What both charts show U.S. is that for more than a year & 1/2 we have been wallowing in the dumps.
True, it isn't getting worse, but it also is NOT getting any better.
------------
However, that might not be totally true:
CoStar reported that CRE prices declined in November
and that the commercial market is bifurcated (even trifurcated)
with trophy properties doing well
but prices for other properties still declining.
--------

-----------

============
Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Index November 2010
http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2010/12/commercial-cataclysm-moodysreal.html
-------------
Moody's: Commercial Real Estate Prices increased 0.6% in November
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/01/moodys-commercial-real-estate-prices.html
========

State Unemployment Rates: The Decline from Recession Maximum

[mEDITate-OR:
miss how very different these two CR charts are from the media "norm".
--------
What you are given by most media is simply the red line in the 2nd chart.
What CR added to that for U.S. is where you now are compared with where you once were.
Then, at a suggestion, Jim @CR created the 1st chart.
What we NOW see is who is getting better and by how much.
and, who is not.
------------
Michigan is terrible, but getting much better, fast.
Cal & Nev are still terrible, and not getting much better.
Ore is still worse than WA, but it is getting better, faster.
And, Texas is, now, getting worse.
-----------

-------------

=============
State Unemployment Rates: The Decline from Recession Maximum
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/01/state-unemployment-rates-decline-from.html
------------
State Unemployment Rates, Consumer Confidence
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/01/misc-state-unemployment-rates-richmond.html
========

Real earnings fall 0.4 percent in December 2010 + Median weekly earnings for men and women in fourth quarter 2010

[mEDITate-OR:

not see that the 1st six months are VERY different than the last...

and

that woemen are still heavily discriminated against.

------------

The Good News is, of course, that like Mexicans they are taking jobs that real men would rather not do...!!!

{that's a joke, don't you see}

------------

These two chart are from TED, which puts one out daily, and a weekly summary.

While the charts are aimed at one set of data, the articles cover more facts/issues.

You, too, can order them each week, and read them. You should, read them.

------------

--------------

===========

Real earnings fall 0.4 percent in December 2010

http://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2011/ted_20110120.htm

-------------
Median weekly earnings for men and women in fourth quarter 2010
http://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/
============

How the Recession Changed Us - What a difference two years makes.

[mEDITate-OR:
think that things are going right along, normally...
-------------
Well, maybe for you they are.
But for U.S. it would appear, in the Atlantic, that they are not.
---------------
You need to got to the Atlantic article site to see this full size.
Amazing.
-------------

===========
How the Recession Changed Us
- What a difference two years makes.
http://assets.theatlantic.com/static/coma/images/issues/201101/numbers.jpg
==============

Pouring gas on an economic recovery + Gas prices high - and might get higher = Gasoline prices have climbed 14% in the past year.

[mEDITate-OR:
have that sinking feeling....
--------
Not only have gas prices - crude & @ pumps -
but they may go a lot higher, soon
China may cause this, literally, all by themselves.
What that will do to U.S. is not exactly known.
But, if what happened last time is any indication
we are in for real economic trouble.
-------------

----------------

============

Pouring gas on an economic recovery
http://money.cnn.com/2011/01/21/news/economy/thebuzz/index.htm
--------------
Gas prices high - and might get higher
Gasoline prices have climbed 14% in the past year.
http://money.cnn.com/2011/01/21/news/economy/thebuzz/index.htm
--------------
Oil's future is in deepwater drilling
http://money.cnn.com/2011/01/11/news/economy/oil_drilling_deepwater/index.htm?iid=EL
===========

Record Low Housing Completions in 2010

--------

===========
Record Low Housing Completions in 2010
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/01/record-low-housing-completions-in-2010.html
=========

China: The new landlord of the U.S. + Foreigners bought more U.S. debt in November + Why China matters

[mEDITate-OR:
remember, with fondness
"There's an old adage,"
"If the bank lends you a thousand dollars, the bank owns you.
But if the bank lends you a million dollars, you own the bank."
---------

--------------

-----------
MAJOR FOREIGN HOLDERS OF TREASURY SECURITIES In billions of dollars

HOLDINGS 1/ AT END OF PERIOD
Nov     Oct     Sep     Aug
Country               2010    2010    2010    2010         
------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  

China, Mainland       895.6   906.8   883.5   868.4   

Japan                 877.2   875.0   862.1   833.8    
l Exporters 3/        210.4   213.9   221.5   217.8   
United Kingdom 2/     511.8   478.5   459.8   450.3     
Brazil                184.4   177.6   175.6   165.1     
Carib Bnkng Ctrs 4/   146.3   133.8   144.7   159.7      
Taiwan                131.1   131.2   130.0   130.2     
Hong Kong             138.9   139.2   135.9   137.8     
Canada                134.7   124.0   114.3   102.7     
Russia                122.5   131.6   128.5   129.0      
Switzerland           100.6   101.3   103.6   106.6      
Germany                60.4    60.1    59.7    58.7      
Luxembourg             81.0    77.5    85.2    78.0       
Thailand               65.7    66.2    64.0    60.9      
eingapore              59.4    63.6    53.9    52.7     
Ireland                42.6    41.4    44.0    42.0    
Korea, South           41.5    41.1    40.4    41.6      
France                 32.6    36.1    35.1    37.8      
India                  40.7    41.1    41.0    39.0       
Egypt                  34.2    34.9    35.0    33.6     
Mexico                 32.7    34.9    37.0    36.2      
Turkey                 28.9    27.6    27.6    29.5     
Norway                 19.7    18.7    18.8    18.2     
Poland                 24.7    26.3    25.9    24.1      
Italy                  20.9    21.0    21.5    20.9      
Colombia               20.9    17.3    16.8    17.0      
Israel                 20.5    17.9    17.6    16.4     
Belgium                15.7    15.7    16.2    34.3      
Malaysia               11.7    11.6    11.5    11.7     
Netherlands            14.7    14.6    15.7    17.7     
Sweden                 14.1    15.0    14.4    15.7      
Chile                  13.6    13.6    13.2    13.2     
Philippines            13.5    12.9    12.9    13.7     
Denmark                12.8    12.5    13.0    12.9      
Australia              11.1    11.8    14.1    11.7     
All Other             159.7   161.1   163.2   165.8   
Grand Total          4346.8  4307.3  4257.1  4204.7   

Of which:
 For. Official       2824.9  2845.9  2811.0  2763.0  
  Treasury Bills      499.2   531.3   495.4   486.9    
T-Bonds & Notes  2325.7  2314.6  2315.6  2276.1   

------------

G-20: The new global economy

http://money.cnn.com/news/economy/g20/interactive/

==========

China: The new landlord of the U.S.

http://money.cnn.com/2011/01/18/news/international/thebuzz/index.htm

--------------

Foreigners bought more U.S. debt in November

http://money.cnn.com/2011/01/18/markets/bondcenter/treasuries/index.htm?iid=EL

---------------------------

Why China matters

http://money.cnn.com/2011/01/18/news/international/why_china_matters/index.htm?iid=EL

=========

A deficit in the info about the Federal budget deficit

[mEDITate-OR:
think that Bill Clinton was the best thing that's ever happened to U.S,
and
that what W left to U.S. simply COULD not have been that bad.
AND, then...
realize that W's "nationalization" of FMae&FMac
and TARP
and the 2009 budget deficit W left U.S.
were all paid for by our/HIS borrowings from China.
----
What U.S. worry.
---------

--------------

This 2n chart shows U.S. precisely what we are buying.

Defense - in two wars

Social Security payments to those too lazy to go back to work.

Health & Human Services.., to too many kids..., and

medical care to those too lazy to go back to work.

-----

Please notice the huge increase in the Dept of Labor

paying all those too lazy to go out and find a job.

----------

==========

US Trade Gap Shrunk in November as Exports Increased + Unexpectedly Narrows - for the third straight month - To Ten-Month Low In November

[mEDITate-OR:
think that "They" are telling U.S. the Truth about what they see...
and then find out some of them actually are.
------

Trade deficit =

The biggest deficit by far is with China

the source of many of the goods on the shelves of Wal-Mart

It rose slightly this month, to $25.6 billion from $25.5 billion.

That is still 66.8% of our overall trade deficit.

Of the total goods deficit of $51.17 billion

$20.08 billion -- 39.2% -- is due to our oil addiction.

Relative to the overall trade deficit, our oil addiction is 52.4% of the problem.

On a year-to-date basis, we have run a $240.6 billion deficit just from petroleum

Put another way, the year-to-date trade deficit has totaled $458.7 billion

which is 84% what all the firms in the S&P 500 earned, worldwide, in 2009.

------------

Goods by geographic area (not seasonally adjusted)

The goods deficit with Canada increased from $1.2bn in October to $1.8bn in November.

The goods deficit with China increased from $25.5bn in October to $25.6bn in November.

The goods deficit with Mexico decreased from $5.8bn in October to $5.6bn in November.

The goods surplus with Brazil was virtually unchanged at $1.1bn in November.

------------
While we agree with your oil addiction argument, we note that once again you do not say WHERE we are buying The Stuff from.
With regard to the two largest suppliers of crude oil to U.S., Canada & Mexico, we also supply them with huge supplies of refined product. Point, buying cheap, selling expensive. So, while this looks & sounds like a simple problem, tis not. And, the US$ 20 Billion deficit has NOT been adjusted for our profits in refined fuels sales.
Then, we turn around and buy a lot from Venezuela, which they intern supply at very cheap prices to Cuba. Did you see where Chavez was POd to learn that some of the cheap oil he was selling to China, was being sold by China at substantially higher prices, some of it to U.S.? Go figure, that one out & explain it to him or U.S.
Then we buy a lot of Chevron & Shell oil from Nigeria. Who knows how many people are being killed, starved and economically cheated there? But, of course, none of that is our problem.
What you did not mention is the huge shift by fleets, especially city & school bus systems over to NG after the last price surge. That fleet distribution system can easily be expanded. But, as you say, we simply don't do it. Go figure the cost of that to U.S.
-----------------

---------------

-----------

------------

--------------

------------

=============
US Trade Gap Shrunk in November as Exports Increased
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/01/trade-gap-shrunk-in-november-as-exports-increased/69475/
-------------
US trade deficit narrowed for the third straight month in November
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1021392.shtml
------------
Trade Deficit Falls Again

http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/45927/Trade+Deficit+Falls+Again

http://seekingalpha.com/article/246467-trade-deficit-falls-again

-------------
Census Has It Wrong - Trade Deficit Increased in November
http://seekingalpha.com/article/246474-census-has-it-wrong-trade-deficit-increased-in-november
=============

Germany Sees Biggest GDP Growth - 3.6% - Since Reunification In 2010 + almost returning to pre-crisis level

[mEDITate-OR
not realize that Germany exports high quality goods not only to themselves, but the rest of Europe and the world.
While the EURO and the US$ dance up and down, the rest of the world KNOWS that they can still buy German quality.
And, they still are.
----------
what was striking in 2010 was the fact that economic growth was not only based on foreign trade, but also on domestic demand.
-----------

-------------

-------------

==========
Germany Sees Biggest GDP Growth - 3.6% - Since Reunification In 2010
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1021378.shtml
---------------
EU ECONOMY
Germany: Industrial production almost returning to pre-crisis level
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1021374.shtml
===========

Canada's trade deficit in November narrowed unexpectedly to the smallest level in the two years

[mEDITate-OR:
wonder how it is possible for Canadian goods to become more expensive...
But, they are selling more stuff abroad, and to U.S.
--------
For the last three years Canada's govt has been trying to keep the Loonie down so those of U.S. who want to build more houses would buy more Canadian lumber. Oddly, that hasn't happened. Go figure.
But, when you look at the details, you will see that Canada exports more than crude oil and timber and auto parts. And, the rest of the world LIKES things made in Canada.
Truly, un-American.
---------

---------
The trade balance has recorded deficits in 17 of the 24 months since December 2008 when it posted the first gap since 1976.
Exports in November climbed 0.8% to C$34.30 billion
Overall export prices were up 2.8% but volumes fell 2%.
Volumes of auto products sank 10% as some plants closed temporarily during the months.
Imports fell 3.2% to C$34.38 billion, led by a 15.1% plunge in volumes of energy products.
Canada's trade surplus with the U.S., its largest trading partner, widened to C$3 billion from C$1.71 billion
The trade deficit with countries other than the U.S. declined to C$3.1 billion from C$3.2 billion
exports grew 1.1%, the fifth straight gain
Exports of industrial goods and materials were valued at C$9.54 billion, increasing 6.6% from the prior month
Shipments of precious metals drove a 21.7% jump in exports of metals and alloys to C$4.2 billion.
Exports of energy products rose 3.2% to C$6.91 billion as prices rose 3.6%.
The increase was largely due to a 12.5% gain in exports of crude petroleum.
Exports of natural gas fell 17.1%, the fourth consecutive decline.
13% decline in shipments of passenger cars.
Medicinal and pharmaceutical products drove a 11.5% increase in exports
Imports of precious metals, notably silver, surged 24.3% to a record high C$1.3 billion.
=============
Trade deficit shrinks in November
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/trade-deficit-shrinks-in-november/article1868347/
------------
Canada Nov Trade Deficit Narrows Unexpectedly To Smallest In 2 yrs
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110113-707997.html
=========

Labor force size in Dec VS Job openings in Nov + net annual changes in select industries

[mEDITate-OR:
not really KNOW that there is a serious problem...
--------
IF you compare charts 1 and 2 you too will see that while job openings have been increasing monthly since the middle of 09, the labor force participation has been shrinking.
More jobs, less people working.
Why?
-------
There are two very informative articles by Colin Barr of Fortune and Daniel Indiviglio of the Atlantic that discuss this "participation" issue in depth. This issue/problem has been discussed by Jim@ Calculated Risk for a number of years now.
We will find the three points of view, and post them asap.
---------
The 3rd chart shows U.S. very clearly that while the total employment - hires vs fires/layoff/quits - remains almost constant at 400,000+ each month, what is actually happening in different industries is VERY different.
This is "mobility" that is many cases is being forced.
Whether or not you can sell your home, or buy another one, now.
========

---------

----------

----------

==========

Payroll employment up 1.1 million in 2010

http://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2011/ted_20110110.htm

-------------
Unemployment in December 2010
http://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2011/ted_20110111.htm
---------
Job openings in November 2010
http://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2011/ted_20110112.htm
===========

Loonie will stay at par with U.S. thanks to "sound" fiscal situation

[mEDITate-OR:

think that "The Ugly Americans" is about the economy...

and has nothing to do with you.

---------

While all of the attention of too many of U.S. is focused on China, or the EURO, or the price of gas, a major economic shift has taken place that is NOT being shown to U.S.

First, you need to look at currencies for economically strong countries - Switzerland, Canada & Australia. Vis those countries the US dollar is collapsing. In aboot (CAN sp) three years the CAN Loonie has risen from US$ 65 to now above par.

Try as the current Conservative Govt has to force the Loonie back down - If China were doing that, we would call it currency manipulation. But, our Good Neighbor to The Far North would never, EVER do that to U.S. So, tisn't true. - they cannot. Being very well run has its benefits - really cheap property from U.S.

-----------

---------

------------

============
Loonie will stay at par with U.S. thanks to "sound" fiscal situation
http://www.cbc.ca/politics/story/2011/01/12/flaherty-dollar.html?ref=rss
===========